1. THE 3RD ASEAN ENERGY OUTLOOK
THE GREEN BUSINESS FORUM 2011
The Korea Energy Management Corporation (KEMCO)
26 October 2011, Seoul, Korea

2. ACE at the Glance
 The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) was established on
January 1, 1999 as an Inter-Governmental Organization,
guided by a Governing Council composed of SOE Leaders of
the ASEAN Member Countries.
 ACE as a technical catalyst for economic growth and
development of ASEAN by initiating, coordinating, facilitating
and disseminating all energy activities to the region and the
rest of the world.
 Follow the Blueprint for ASEAN cooperation in the field of
energy: The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation
(APAEC) 2010-2015, theme: “Bringing Policies to Actions:
Towards a Cleaner, more Efficient and Sustainable ASEAN
Energy Community”.
©ACE, October 2011 2

3. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
 Mid 2011, the ASEAN Centre for
Energy released The 3rd ASEAN
Energy Outlook
 A joint output by ASEAN Centre
for Energy (ACE), the Institute of
Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ),
and National ESSPA Teams.
 Developed an energy demand
and supply outlook model for
the ASEAN region up to 2030.
©ACE, October 2011 3

4. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
ASEAN is one of the fastest growing economic regions
in the world and has a fast growing energy demand
driven by economic and demographic growth.
Economy and Demography
• Total land area : 4.34 million square kilometers or 3.3% world’s
land area
• Total population : 566 million or around 8.6% of the total world
population, grew by 1.4% per annum from 1995 to 2007
• Total GDP : 866 billion USD (constant 2000 value), grown at an
annual average rate of 4.3% from 1995 to 2007
• GDP per capita varied widely among the member states from 343
to 29,185 USD in 2007
©ACE, October 2011 4

5. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
Projection Scenarios
• Used the historical correlation of final energy
Business-as-Usual consumption and economic activity from 1980 to 2007.
• The GDP growth as well as the energy supply would be
(BAU) Scenario or the based on current targets by each government as well.
Base Case Scenario • In view of the use of regression analysis, the trends of
future consumption follow historical trends.
• It is assumed that the energy efficiency saving goals of the
governments of all the member states of ASEAN is met.
Alternative Policy
• The scenario also includes use of alternative fuels and
Scenario (APS) technologies such as nuclear technology, renewable
energy and biofuels.
©ACE, October 2011 5

6. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
Primary Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (BaU Scenario)
Total primary energy consumption increased from 252 MOTE in 1990, 339 MTOE in 1995 to 511 MTOE in 2007 or
3.6% per annum. Under BaU, it will growth 4.5% per year from 2007 to reach 1,414 MTOE in 2030. Coal will have
the fastest annual growth as demand increases in power generation, but oil will remain as the major source of
energy.
©ACE, October 2011 6

7. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
Primary Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (APS)
In the APS, the growth of primary energy consumption will be at a slower 3.6% per annum to reach only 1152
MTOE in 2030, 18.5% lower than in the BAU scenario. This is the result of imposing EE&C action plans and saving
targets of the member countries. Primary energy intensity will decrease by 29.7% to 408 TOE/million USD.
©ACE, October 2011 7

8. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
Final Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (BaU Scenario)
Increased at an annual rate of 3.8% from 186 MTOE in 1990, to 241 MTOE in 1995, and to 375 MTOE in 2007. Under
BaU Scenario, Final Energy Consumption in ASEAN will grow at an average annual rate of 4.4% from 375 MTOE to
1,018 MTOE in the period 2007-2030. The transport sector consumption will grow the fastest during the period
with annual growth rate projected at 5.6% driven by the increasing per capita income.
©ACE, October 2011 8

9. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
Final Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (APS)
In the APS, final energy consumption will grow at a lower annual rate at 3.6% to 843 MTOE in 2030. This lower
growth is a result of implementing the EE&C programs in all sectors, excluding use as non-energy. Compared to the
BaU, the energy savings potential of the transport sector will be around 22.4%, while for the Industries and other
sectors will be 19.3% and 14.5%. Overall, the average total energy saving in final consumption will be around 17.2%.
©ACE, October 2011 9

10. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
CO2 Emission from 1990 to 2030 (BaU Scenario vs APS)
Total CO2 emission in the APS will be about 679 million tons of Carbon equivalent (Mt-C), 24% lower than the BaU
scenario (895 Mt-C). CO2 emission per unit of GDP will also increase at the average annual rate of 0.5% from 283 t-
C/million USD in 2007 to 317 t-C/million USD in 2030 in the BaU. In the APS, on the other hand, CO2 intensity will
decrease by 0.7% per year to 240 t-C/million USD.
©ACE, October 2011 10

11. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
RAISED CONCERNS TO THE ENERGY SECURITY OF ASEAN
& GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY
• ASEAN will continue to be heavily dependent on fossil fuels especially oil in the
future.
• The rapid growth of electricity demand will also be a driving force in increasing
use of fossil fuels especially coal.
• One of the most effective ways of meeting future demand is improving energy
efficiency as shown by the APS results. In this regard, ASEAN might to revisit their
energy efficiency programs to optimize the benefits that could be derived from
them.
• Another sustainable way to meet increasing demand is to accelerate the
development of clean energy such as renewable and alternative energy.
• ASEAN needs to improve the energy investment climate so that it will become
more conducive to investors.
• ASEAN should also continue to strengthen regional cooperation especially in
sharing best practices in energy development and utilization including energy
efficiency.
©ACE, October 2011 11

12. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
FINDING AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
 As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals,
primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in ASEAN will
increase almost three folds in the BaU scenario – there will be
increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental
stability.
 If current energy production levels in the region do not increase - the
region will have to source out this additional demand from outside
the region.
 Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low-
carbon technologies and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in
power generation - would be needed to reduce carbon intensity and
enhance energy security.
©ACE, October 2011 12

13. CO2 Emissions by Fuel, Emissions per Head & Sector,
and Carbon Intensity of Energy
©ACE, October 2011 13

14. CO2 Emissions by Fuel
1973 and 2007 Fuel Shares of CO2 Emissions**
*World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers.
**Calculated using IEA’s Energy Balance Tables and the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines.
CO2 emissions are from fuel combustion only.
*** Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste.
Key World Energy Statistics , IEA 2009.
©ACE, October 2011 14

15. Global Energy Related CO2 Emissions 2005
©ACE, October 2011 15

16. Carbon Intensity of Energy
Carbon Intensity of Energy of Selected Countries 2003-2007
*World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers.
Energy demand growth itself does not necessarily lead to an increase in emissions.
Countries with substantial hydro or nuclear resources: Brazil & France have low carbon intensities.
Countries which use a lot of coal: China & Australia show high intensities.
[Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistic 2009 (data 2007)]
©ACE, October 2011 16

17. Mitigation Potential for A Specific Period of Time
©ACE, October 2011 17

18. Mitigation Potential for A Specific Period of Time
©ACE, October 2011 18

19. NATIONALLY
APPROPRIATE
MITIGATION
ACTIONS
(NAMAs)
The Need of
Integrated National
Processes
THE GREEN BUSINESS
FORUM 2011
The Korea Energy
Management Corporation
(KEMCO)
26 October 2011, Seoul, Korea
Dr. Hardiv H. Situmeang Kyoto, 2 July 2011

20. Decision 1/CP.16
Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-
term Cooperative Action under the Convention
Paragraph 48
Agrees that developing countries Parties will
take NAMAs in the context of sustainable
development, supported and enabled by
technology, financing and capacity building,
aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions
relative to “business as usual” emissions in 2020.

21. NAMAs by DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES
[Its Categories – Cancun, Mexico]
Category Remarks
(Unsupported or Self-supporting): Autonomous mitigation
actions undertaken by developing country Parties on their own
to achieve certain emission reduction level without international
1. Domestically (outside) support under the UNFCCC framework as domestically
Supported supported mitigation actions. The emission reduction achieved
NAMAs would be accounted for the associated developing country Party,
and the MRV should be done domestically. Associated required
financing comes from domestic financial sources.
Mitigation actions by developing country Parties supported
directly by developed country Parties as internationally
supported mitigation actions under the UNFCCC framework. The
2. Internationally generated emission reductions cannot be used to offset
Supported emissions by developed country Parties in meeting their GHG
NAMAs emission reduction commitments. It would be accounted for the
associated developing country Party, and the MRV should be
done internationally in accordance with guidelines to be
developed under the Convention.

22. Multi Sectoral Business as Usual Baseline Unilateral /
(Aggregated) Domestically
Supported
NAMAs
[GHG Emissions]
Credited NAMAs
Internationally
Supported
NAMAs
Future Path of
GHG Emissions
T0 T1 Tn 2020 [Tahun]
NAMAs Categories of Developing Country Parties

23. Unilateral /
National Business as Usual Baseline
Domestically
(Multi Sectoral - Aggregated) Supported
NAMAs
[GHG Emissions]
26 %
41 %
Credited NAMAs
Internationally
Supported
NAMAs
Future Path of
GHG Emissions
T0 T1 Tn 2020 [Tahun]
National integrated processes in meeting the national emission reduction
target based on cost effectiveness and its implementability level.

24. 3 RELATED KEY ISSUES THAT SHOULD BE
SOLVED IN WIDE SPECTRUM BASIS
 To establish National Business as Usual Baseline which is
a multi sectoral business as usual baseline (aggregated),
and follows by establishment of aggregated mitigation
actions,
 To establish NAMAs through National Integrated Processes
to be put under 2 (two) NAMAs categories:
 Domestically supported NAMAs to achieve the national
emission reduction target which is 26% below the
national business as usual baseline, and
 Internationally supported NAMAs to achieve the national
emission reduction target up to 41%, increase from 26%
below the National Business as Usual Baseline under the
UNFCCC framework, and
 To propose from the remaining aggregated mitigation
actions which are not selected under the above NAMAs
categories to be put further under credited NAMAs.

25. Future Path of GHG National Emissions Reduction
(Multi Sectoral Mitigation Actions)
National Business as Usual Baseline
Past Trend and (Multi Sectoral - Aggregated)
Current State of
GHG Emissions
GHG Emissions
 Sector # 1
 Sector # 2
 Sector # 3
 Sector # 4
 Sector # --
 Sector # n
Aggregated Mitigation
Future Path Actions (Selected from
of GHG Emissions Potential Mitigation
Actions of Each Sectors
T0 T1 Tn [T i m e]
National integrated processes in meeting the national emission reduction
target based on cost effectiveness and its implementability level.

26. Article 3.4 of the Convention
The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable
development. Policies and measures to protect the climate system
against human-induced change should be appropriate for the
specific conditions of each Party and should be integrated with
national development programmes, taking into account that
economic development is essential for adopting measures to
address climate change.
Integrate Climate Change Program into
National Development Plan
(Programmes)

27. Job
Creation
4 PILLARS
Economic and
Poverty
Eradication
NAMAs Social
Development
Meeting the National Emission Reduction Target as
a Contribution to Global Coherent Mitigation Effort
Please see: the UNFCCC Convention, Article 4, Paragraph 7.

28. SOME POSSIBLE SCREENING CRITERIA
Some possible screening criteria can be used to rank the implementability
level of proposed potential mitigation action options of each sector besides
its cost effectiveness modified from the UNFCCC Resource Guide Module 4,
and take into consideration the above four pillars such as:
• Consistency with national development goal,
• Consistency with national environmental goals,
• Data availability and quality,
• Political and social feasibility,
• Replicability, e.g. adaptability to different geographical, socio-economic-
cultural, legal, and regulatory settings, and
• Macro-economic considerations, such as: the impact on GDP; the number
of jobs created or lost; effects on inflation or interest rates; the
implications for long-term development: sustainable economic growth &
social development, and poverty eradication; foreign exchange and trade,
etc.
Screening criteria should be consistent with the overall framing of proposed
potential mitigation scenarios from each sector which is important and
useful when using bottom-up methodologies in which a wide range of
technologies, national policies and existing legal and regulatory frameworks.
The calculation of abatement cost for each potential mitigation action is
considered as very important. The magnitude of its abatement cost and the
agreed criteria will determine the priority level of each mitigation actions in
its associated sectoral scope and its priority level in the national scale.

29. Proposed Potential Mitigation Actions
Cost Implementability
Effectiveness Level
Priority List
Potential Mitigation Actions

30. POWER SECTOR TRANSPORT SECTOR
Aggregated Aggregated
Business-as- Business-as-
Usual Usual
Baseline Baseline
Potential
Potential Mitigation
Mitigation Actions
Actions
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR Aggregated
Aggregated
Business-as-
Business-as-
Integrated
Usual
Usual
Baseline
Baseline
Modeling
Potential
Mitigation
Actions
Drive the energy system toward
low carbon energy sources, low-
carbon and carbon-free energy
technologies, greater efficiency
in energy production and
distribution and in energy use.

31. Integrated Modeling of Energy Sector
GHG • Macroeconomic and Energy Parameters
Emissions • Data Base Development
Reduction • Development of Business as Usual Baseline
Scenarios • Sectoral Analysis
Power
Integrated Sector
Modeling
Industrial
Sector
Objectives,
Strategies, and Transport
Approaches. Sector
• Integrating the associated emission reduction scenarios
• Energy supply to meet useful energy demand
• Broader energy mix to alleviate sustainable challenges
• Etc.

32. National
BAU Baseline /
Aggregated BAU
Baseline 1st Layer
Energy Land Based Other
Sector Sector Targeted Sector 2nd Layer
Power Industry Transport REDD+ Other
Sector Sector Sector Activity
3rd Layer
Cement
Pulp & Paper Required Processes to
Establish National BAU
Iron & Steel
Baseline / Aggregated
Textile BAU Baseline
(Bottom-up Approach)
Interconnected
power systems
By modes and
Sub-sectors
Sub-national
and isolated
sub-national
Industry
levels
levels

33. Establishment of Aggregated Business as Usual Baseline of Each
Sector
Establishment of Potential Mitigation Actions of Each Sector
Establishment of National Business as Usual Baseline and
Aggregated Mitigation Actions
Establishment of NAMAs and National Long-Term CO2 Emission
Reduction Paths
Calculate Carbon Budget for Each Sector
Propose Required Policies, Measures and Instruments

34. Thank You
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