1. THE I S S U E 1 March 2013
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2. Wells Haslem Strategic Public Affairs has
an interesting heritage.
Our team combines decades of experience
in public affairs, government relations,
issues management, journalism, politics,
policy advice and foreign affairs.
The team is made up of John Wells,
Benjamin Haslem, Alexandra Mayhew, The
Hon. Kerry Sibraa AO, Julie Sibraa, Trevor
Cook, and Michael Baume AO.
They were a key part of Jackson Wells – one
of Australia’s most successful public
relations outfits – for over 20 years.
Wells Haslem is not just another PR
company. What we do is quickly add value to our clients’ projects; this is what we
are renowned for.
At the centre of our firm is the desire to help clients communicate better and to
resolve issues affecting their brand and corporate performance.
We believe it is important to get the planning and strategy around communication
right. That is where we usually start: outline key objectives, identify key
stakeholders and their issues, develop strategies to manage issues, identify a
strategic approach to the project and then outlining a major program of activity to
help ensure we achieve our objectives.
Sounds simple enough but often it isn’t. It takes a lot of thinking and clever
footwork.
Our work covers all key disciplines of communication: strategy development,
issues management, government relations, media relations, crisis management,
digital media and FMCG promotion.
We have a long history in assisting companies with change communication.
Helping management communicate more effectively with their employees,
creating a more effective and efficient work place.
If you think we can help you, or you want to know more about our services,
please ring Ben, Alexandra or me on +61 (0)2 9033 8667, or visit our website
wellshaslem.com.au .
John Wells - Chairman
Welcome to Wells Haslem
Welcome to The Shell, the
new newsletter and official
publication of Wells Haslem
Strategic Public Affairs. We
have now been operating
for six months.
Our new publication aims to
bring you regular updates on
issues, public affairs activity,
trends in the industry,
politics and insights into
client work across our
portfolio of activity.
The Shell represents the
heritage underpinning our
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developed by Alexandra
Mayhew. It brings a
contemporary look and feel
to the brand Wells Haslem.
We will publish the Shell bi-
annually and update our
clients and friends on all of
our activity and interesting
bits and pieces.
3. Say what you like about Julia Gillard,
but don’t ever say she’s not up for a
fight. From the minute she ousted
Kevin Rudd in June 2010 and became
Australia’s first female Prime
Minister, she’s been under constant
fire from all sides and all the time
carrying some heavy political
baggage.
After a stumbling and often inept
election campaign in August 2010,
she limped back into government
holding a one vote shield in the
Parliament, facing the fury and
frustration of a barely vanquished
Tony Abbott and a public fully
expecting to be going back to the
polls in six months.
A necessary but thankless deal with
the Australian Greens heralded her
first and most controversial backflip –
the introduction of a carbon pricing
scheme to commence on 1 July 2012,
the very policy she told Prime
Minister Rudd to dump to save the
Government from certain electoral
defeat. Even more mystifying was
the decision to call its first phase,
before the introduction of the cap
and trade scheme, the Carbon Tax. A
vote loser if ever there was one.
This was followed by the
commitment to bring the Budget
back into surplus in the 2012/2013
budget.
The pundits said this was simply
irresponsible in a time of such
economic uncertainty when
governments should be increasing
expenditure and cutting taxes not
cutting spending and increasing
revenue.
But this was always a no-
win decision because once
Swan announced a surplus
was no longer possible
thanks to dwindling
revenues and the
evaporation of expected
mining tax revenues, their
opponents are having a “Labor can’t
manage the economy” field day.
Then there was the decision to back
then Liberal now Independent MP
Peter Slipper for the position as
Speaker of the House of
Representatives after serving Labor
Speaker Harry Jenkins stood down
from the position to “spend more
time in his electorate”. What began
as a piece of political mastery in
gaining an extra vote for the
Government in Parliament, quickly
degenerated into tawdry scandal and
accusations, then undermined by the
necessary expulsion of Craig
Thomson from the Labor Party,
culminating in some of the most
vicious and vitriolic mudslinging seen
in Parliament for quite some time.
It also resulted in one of the Prime
Minister’s most impressive
Parliamentary performances – the
now famous “misogyny” speech
directed at the Opposition Leader
that quickly went viral and served as
an inspiration to women around the
world.
It was this moment that
more than any exemplified
the kind of courage and
fighting qualities Julia
Gillard has and how she
got to be Australia’s leader
and first female Prime Minister.
When things get really tough, when
the media and anyone else with an
opinion on politics declare “it’s over”,
that’s when we see her at her best.
She’s also not averse to taking some
political risk. She leapt out of the
blocks in 2013 announcing an
election date eight months ahead,
taking everyone, including her own
Party, by surprise. Tossing away what
conventional wisdom says is one of
the main benefits of incumbency -
the element of surprise - she is clearly
banking on Abbott and the
Opposition exposing themselves as a
budget and policy free-zone.
With the Federal Labor minority Government’s
sudden slump in opinion polls on the back of
the arrest of Craig Thomson, Prime Minister
Julia Gillard enters 2013 facing the political
fight of her life. Wells Haslem Special Counsel,
Julie Sibraa, examines what Labor can do to
pull off an unlikely win on 14 September.
to hold onto Federal Government?
What can Labor do
4. ‘When all is said and done, the phrase “it’s the
economy stupid” rings true. The economy and its
impacts on the everyday lives of Australians
remains one of, if not, the top political issue.
And Labor has a positive story to tell’
And as the Opposition starts the
inevitable pre-election jostling
around who will get the plum jobs
and perks of Government, Gillard
might be hoping the voters will not
take kindly to an attitude that
they’ve got the election in the bag.
It’s also possibly the 2013 version
of Paul Keating’s “I’m going to do
you slowly” jibe to John Hewson,
when he asked why Keating didn’t
call an immediate election. And we
all know how that one ended.
Hewson lost the ‘unlosable’
election.
The polls initially gave Gillard a
positive start to 2013 with the first
Newspoll showing the two-party
preferred vote narrowing to 51-49
to the Coalition – a significant
comeback from the 59-41 poll
taken in April 2012, and the fourth
out of five polls showing the two
parties nearly neck and neck. It
was starting to look like a positive
trend was emerging for the
Government.
But the most recent Newspoll
taken after her election
announcement (with the media
calling it “eight months hard Labor”)
and news of the Craig Thomson
arrest, reversed that quite
dramatically, with the two-party
preferred vote widening back out to
56-44 and an alarming 6 per cent
drop in the ALP primary vote, from 38
to 32.
To say Julia Gillard faces a
monumental challenge is an
understatement. Winning the next
election seems nothing short of
climbing Everest without oxygen.
So what can she do? She needs to
hold her nerve and get out on the
front foot with a positive message in
the areas of policy that really matter
to the majority of Australians – the
economy, jobs, health, education and
paid parental leave. She needs to
demonstrate and most importantly,
communicate her legislative and
policy achievements even in the most
difficult circumstances of a minority
government.
The policy areas voters still consider
the ALP better able to manage are
education and health. These two
areas encompass some of the voter’s
broadest areas of concern – their
children’s/grandchildren’s future and
the ability of themselves and loved
ones to access high quality medical
care.
Expect the Prime Minister and every
backbencher to campaign hard on the
long term benefits of the National
Broadband Network, the
implementation of the Gonski
reforms to education with its
increased funding to schools and the
rollout of the ground breaking
National Disability Insurance Scheme
(NDIS). The fact the Opposition
supports the NDIS will be of little
relevance. It’s a Labor idea and a
Labor policy that will positively affect
the lives of hundreds of thousands of
families around the country who
struggle to support a family member
with a disability. At the same time as
highlighting these policies, Labor will
be campaigning locally against the
spending cuts to education and
disability support being undertaken
by the conservative State
Governments, particularly in NSW
and Queensland. In the key western
Sydney seats, expect highly localised
campaigns from MPs targeting
traditional state issues like law and
order.
And back to carbon pricing – the
reform everyone said would lose
Labor government. It’s been in for six
months and already the voters’ anger
is dissipating as the dire prophesies of
the Opposition scare campaigns fail
to materialise. Add to that some
pretty extraordinary weather
patterns through the summer with
devastating results and voters might
start to think differently about the
reality of climate change.
When all is said and done, the phrase
“it’s the economy stupid” rings true.
The economy and its impacts on the
everyday lives of Australians remains
one of if not the top political issue.
And Labor has a positive story to sell
that, despite all the global
endorsement Australia receives, does
not seem to have made an impact on
voters who traditionally tend to
believe the Coalition is better capable
of managing
the economy
than Labor.
Even though
the impact of
the fragile
global
economy on
Australia is still a real
challenge for the
Government, recently
highlighted by the slight
rise in unemployment to 5.4 per cent
in December, which remained steady
in January, Australia’s economy has
largely withstood the buffering from
a range of external sources. Julia
Gillard needs to claim credit for
presiding over good economic
management and fiscal discipline.
Despite the bias towards the
Coalition, their grasp on matters
economic appears flimsy to say the
least, with some of their more
credible performers sitting on the
economic policy sidelines. Most of
their rhetoric to date has relied upon
the same simplistic messaging and
negativity deployed to most areas of
policy – come the election, they will
need to do significantly more.
It would be exceptionally naïve and
foolish to say that for Julia Gillard and
Labor this election will be anything
other than one of the toughest. Like
all election campaigns, the real fight
takes place in the marginal seats. It is
more than likely that Western Sydney
alone will determine the outcome of
the election with a swathe of Labor
seats currently set to fall. If this
happens, Tony Abbott will be
Australia’s next Prime Minister.
But you can never write off a fighter.
Julia Gillard has come through the
other side of two and a half of the
toughest political years that can be
imagined. But not only has she come
through it and gotten off the canvas,
but she’s shaping up for the political
fight of her life.
SEE GRAPH ON PAGE 5 | Includes Dobell won as ALP (Craig Thompson) in 2010 |
2
Includes Fisher won as LIB (Peter Slipper) in 2010 | SEE GRAPH ON PAGE 6 | *The terms of
service of the senators for the ACT and NT expire at the end of the day prior to the polling day for the next general election of the House of Representatives..
5. Much has been written about the
impact of state governments on
federal voting patterns and vice
versa. Although voters do clearly
distinguish between the two
jurisdictions and their issues,
traditionally there has been a
certain degree of voters hedging
their bets when it comes to
State/Federal colours. So looking
at the State political environment
in 2010 and the Federal election
result and comparing the situation
in the States now is useful.
NSW
In NSW the ALP only lost one seat
held by a sitting member in 2010,
Bennelong, previously held by
Prime Minister Howard, with
former tennis star John Alexander
for the Liberal Party defeating
Maxine McKew. It also lost the
seat of Macquarie but the seat’s
boundaries had been substantially
changed following a redistribution in
NSW and Labor was fielding a new
candidate following the retirement of
the popular Labor MP Bob Debus.
The seat was won by another popular
Liberal MP who previously
represented the seat of Greenway,
Louise Markus.
This was a remarkable result given
the State Labor Government was in
its death throes which resulted in a
wipeout for Labor the following year.
Possibly the one positive to come
from Julia Gillard calling an early
election was that many Liberal
candidates in key Labor-held western
Sydney seats had not been
preselected and started the campaign
late.
Although Barry O’Farrell has been at
times criticised in the media for not
doing enough, quickly enough, to
justify his mandate, he is nonetheless
still riding high in the polls. That,
alongside the ongoing ICAC
investigation into alleged corruption
by two former Labor MPs which is
expected to continue over the next
few months, puts Labor in a perilous
position in NSW. Not even the
formidable marginal seat
campaigning of NSW Labor would
seem likely to withstand such a
challenge.
QUEENSLAND
So assuming some losses in NSW,
that means Labor needs to pick up in
other States. But where? Although
the worst electoral result in the 2010
federal election took place in WA
where Labor managed just 31 per
cent of the primary vote, the most
electoral damage in 2010 was
suffered in Queensland, where Labor
lost seven seats with a primary vote
of 33.58 per cent. This can be
attributed to several factors - the
dumping of Queenslander Kevin
Rudd, the mining tax and the
unpopularity of the then State Labor
Government.
In 2013 Queensland has a LNP
Government led by Campbell
Newman that almost wiped out the
Labor Party in the election held in
March 2012. Since coming to office,
Newman has not done any favours to
his federal counterparts by
announcing the axing of tens of
thousands of public sector jobs, cut
spending and foreshadowed further
privatisations and asset sales. A
December 2012 poll undertaken by
market research firm ReachTEL
revealed that as a result of the
Newman Government, 45.1 per cent
of Queensland voters are less likely to
vote LNP at the upcoming federal
poll. This would give plenty of hope
to Labor that some of those lost seats
could be regained in 2013. We can
expect the federal campaign in
Queensland to focus on Campbell
Newman’s policies and their impacts
on the people of the state, with the
warning that a vote for Tony Abbott
will mean more of the same on a
federal scale.
In contrast to the poor results in
NSW, QLD and WA, the southern
states of Victoria, South Australia and
Tasmania all delivered two-party
preferred swings to Labor of 1.0, 0.78
and 4.0 per cent respectively.
VICTORIA
In the Prime Minister’s home State of
Victoria Labor actually picked up two
seats from the Coalition while losing
the seat of Melbourne to the Greens.
Since 2010 Victorian voters have also
elected a State Coalition
Government, a somewhat
unexpected result given the solid
performance of the previous Labor
Government. Since then the voters
of Victoria haven’t seemed all that
happy with their choice, and the most
recent State poll (Newspoll December
2012) has Labor ahead on the two
party-preferred vote by 55-45,
repeating the result of the poll taken
in October and therefore suggesting a
trend. This would seem to augur well
if translated to a Federal election,
although there are few, if any,
winnable Coalition held seats, which
makes it difficult to make up for
losses in NSW or elsewhere.
The State of
the States
Current Members of Parliament – House of Representatives
pg.5|WhatcanLabordotoholdontoFederalGovernment?–JulieSibraa
6. WESTERN AUSTRALIA
2013 is also a State election year for
Western Australia. The current
Government has an overwhelming lead
in the polls and should win comfortably
come election time on 9 March.
It would be difficult to see Labor doing
worse federally in WA than in 2010 but
the opportunity to vent any anti-Labor
sentiment at a State election may take
out some of the sting.
Given the bet hedging scenario (and
current polling), the residual Labor
states of South Australia and Tasmania
could be problematic for Labor.
TASMANIA
At the 2010 election in Tasmania there
was a 4.0 per cent swing to Labor,
which won four of the five seats, with
the fifth being won by Independent
Andrew Wilkie. Recent state polls in
Tasmania show the State Labor
Government well behind the Coalition
in the polls with the State not due to
go to an election until May 2014. This
is a serious problem for Labor and
could result in the loss of two to three
seats.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
No seats changed hands in South
Australia in the 2010 Federal Election,
which was a fairly remarkable result.
The longevity of the current State
Labor Government, whose election is
also not due until 2014, poses a risk
but is being mitigated by the recent
leadership instability in the state
Coalition. Given all these factors status
quo could very well be the outcome
again federally in South Australia.
ACT & NT
There is unlikely to be any change to
the two Labor-held seats in the ACT,
but the election result in the Northern
Territory election in 2012 indicated the
second seat held by longstanding Labor
MP Warren Snowden could also fall to
the CLP.
When Chinese Premier Chou En Lai was reportedly asked what he thought
was the historic impact of the French Revolution, he considered the
question for a moment then replied: “It's too soon to tell’.
It’s certainly too early to speculate on the likely Senate composition
following the next federal election, but some fairly obvious points stand
out.
Kevin Rudd’s comprehensive victory in 2007 was also reflected in the
Senate result, with a remarkably strong result for the non-Coalition parties.
For example in Tasmania the result was 3 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Green.
Overall the result was 16 Labor, 16 Coalition, 3 Green and 1 Independent
Senator elected. The terms of these Senators elected in 2007 expire on 30
June 2014. It is highly unlikely, based on current polling that these results
would be repeated.
At a glance it appears Labor could lose up to two to three Senators with
the Coalition picking up two or three. Whilst the Greens’ vote has slipped
recently, it is still possible for them to gain a Senator in a State like NSW
where the 2007 election delivered three Senators each to Labor and the
Coalition, a slightly unusual outcome based on previous elections.
The problem for the Coalition if they win Government is there are six
Green Senators whose terms do not expire until 30 June 2017, which even
with an improved result on 2007 will make it extremely difficult for the
Coalition to control the Senate.
2013
the Senate
Who will
P O S T
The Hon. Kerry Sibraa AO
7. In early January, Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott left his
summer holiday to fight bushfires near Nowra with his NSW Rural
Fire Service brigade from Belrose on Sydney’s Northern Beaches.
“I'm now on my way to Sydney to be on standby with my local fire
brigade. Important to follow fire warnings and advice today,” Mr
Abbott tweeted through his @TonyAbbottMHR Twitter account on 8
January.
The day before he had tweeted: “Good that the government has
swiftly responded with assistance to victims of the bushfires in
Tasmania #tasfires”.
But it was the 8 January tweet that led Federal Labor frontbencher,
Brendan O’Connor, to re-tweet it with the addition of a
“#standbystunt" tag.
The fact that someone in the government suggested he was grand
standing was symptomatic of a government who’s focus was on the
man and not the ball. It simply continued the government’s abusive
personal attack on Abbott.
While O’Connor later apologised and deleted his tweet, one may ask
why a Government Minister would do this. The answer is very simple.
The government is clearly concerned about its electoral position and
they know that the Abbott locomotive is heading their way soon.
Contrary to their public statements, the government knows that
confidence in the economy is continuing to fall, consumer spending is
falling, the cost of living is rising, productivity has declined,
unemployment is rising, investment is falling and those areas of the
economy which had remained strong, such as
mining, are also stalling.
Their re-election will hinge on them being able
to reverse this or demonstrate that Abbott
cannot do better.
The next Federal election will be held on
September 14. Some might say “we can’t wait”.
The big question is can Tony Abbott win and
what does he have to do to ensure the coalition
does win, whenever the election is held?
The electorate appears so disillusioned with the
government that Abbott may well win anyway.
This is something he cannot simply rely on, and
nor should he.
He needs to continue to demonstrate that he’s a
credible alternative leader and that his shadow
ministers are credible alternative ministers.
Sixteen shadow ministers were ministers in the
last Howard Government in 2007.
Abbott has an interesting mix of attributes. On
one hand he gives the impression he’s a rather
rough and tumble fellow, capable, articulate and
somewhat sensitive to significant public issues.
He can also be quite sensitive, accommodating
and “a soft touch”.
WhatmustTony
John Wells
andtheCoalitiondotowinGovernment?ABBOTT
8. It’s because of this rather rough looking exterior
that may turn some people off, particularly some
women. However, it is also this quality that will
ultimately endear him to people.
Abbott has weathered a relentless attack and yet
the Coalition remains ahead in public opinion polls.
People now say well “where are your policies”.
Abbott can argue that he has plenty of policies.
What he has to do is go out and educate the
electorate that his policies are better than those
that have put the country into the position that it is
– lacking in confidence, people not spending, rising
unemployment, rising costs, and a government on
the nose.
So what are Abbott’s policies? The Coalition’s
Shadow Minister for Finance and chairman of its
policy development committee, Andrew Robb,
wrote in January: “In my 30 years in and around
politics I have never seen an Opposition in such
strong shape on the policy front. It is true that the
government's tenuous hold on office since the 2010
election motivated us to greatly accelerate our
policy review and development process so as to be
prepared for an early poll”.
“As a result, we have long possessed a
comprehensive suite of policies in 49 areas, but
much to the government's chagrin we are following
our own timetable in releasing them, not Labor's,”
Robb wrote.
“Extra time allows us to review, refine and enhance
our menu of options, which includes several
hundred individual policy initiatives… As well, it
would be totally irresponsible for us to close the
books on our budget and policy formulation with
the election still … months away.
“Yet since the last election we have made some 55
policy announcements, including the outlining of
substantive plans for a strong and prosperous
economy, to drive productivity and to support the
creation of one million jobs over five years.
“Tax reform will begin with the removal of the
carbon and mining taxes, which are undermining
growth and investment, damaging our reputation,
making us less competitive and driving up cost of
living. Treasury's own modelling shows the carbon
tax will erode GDP with a cumulative loss of output
of $32 billion by 2020 rising to a staggering $1
trillion by 2050, in 2010 dollars.
“We have also unveiled the most ambitious
deregulation agenda seen in this country, including
the streamlining of environmental approval
processes to provide greater investment certainty
as well as a commitment to restore the Australian
Building and Construction Commission to tackle
union abuses in the building industry.
“Already there have also been substantive
commitments on critical infrastructure spending
and reform, including the development of a
rolling 15-year national infrastructure plan.
“The full-scale commission of audit we will
conduct, the first since 1996, will identify areas
of waste and other poor quality government
spending and will be fundamental to restoring
the structural integrity of the budget.
“The government is constantly on the lookout
for material it can misrepresent and distort to
distract from its very real policy calamities; such
as a mining tax that raises no money, its failures
on border protection, carbon tax betrayal and
over-reliance on debt.
“This explains the obsession with trying to goad
us into the premature release of our entire
policy program, including ridiculous calls for us
to produce our full costings and savings
measures, which started two years before the
next election was even due. “If they can't get
any traction misrepresenting our policies they
have no qualms pinching them, as we have seen
in the small business space, including elevating
representation to cabinet level or the belated
and humiliating embrace of offshore processing
of boat arrivals, while other policies that
resonate they pretend don't exist to starve them
of oxygen.
“We have seen this with the $9.6bn in major
road projects we have committed to and our
determination to cut $1bn of red tape each year.
“In addition to the substantive policy
announcements, such as measures to regain
control of our borders, Tony Abbott has also
outlined a range of other initiatives, including a
new Colombo plan, an ambitious Asian
languages program, which will see language
studies for all pre-schoolers and a concerted
effort to increase the numbers of Year 12
students studying a second language from 12
per cent to at least 40 per cent within a decade.
This is fundamental if we are to fully capitalise
on the opportunities that are emerging in the
Asia-Pacific.
“The overarching objective of the Coalition is to
promote growth as opposed to redistribution,
and restoring confidence is a big part of that.
“The four guiding principles we are using in our
policy development ensures our program both
reflects Coalition values and presents a clear
alternative to the government.”
The punters will get to decide whether this
policy platform is for them on September 14 or
before.
pg.8|WhatmustTonyAbbottandtheCoalitiondotowinGovernment?–JohnWells
9. An Australian Electoral
Commission study reveals Labor
would have lost the 2010
Federal Election but for a large
number of deliberate informal
protest votes in western Sydney.
The challenge for the ALP in 2013 is to win
those disillusioned supporters back.
Wells Haslem Special Counsel, Michael
Baume, explains.
Unless Federal Labor solves its deliberate “protest”
informal vote crisis in its traditional heartland of
western Sydney, it will lose this year’s federal
election – no matter how many of the coalition’s
marginal Queensland seats may also be at risk.
When Labor lost enough seats in 2010 to wipe out
its majority in the House of Representatives, it was
only saved from the loss of several more because
disillusioned Labor voters chose to cast an informal
ballot, such as blank ones or with protest scribbles or
slogans, rather than to switch to the coalition. This
resulted in a more than doubling of deliberately
informal votes in several seats in western Sydney, as
adjudged by the Australian Electoral Commission.
The problem this has created for Labor is that this
clearly flexible vote (much of which apparently did
go to the Liberals in the 2011 state election) exceeds
the swing needed to lose several of these seats this
year, some of them previously regarded as rusted-on
Labor.
The deliberately informal vote in western Sydney’s
Labor marginals like Greenway of 3.74% spells the
kiss of death where it only takes a swing of less than
1% to lose the seat, and the same goes for Lindsay
with a 3.2% deliberately informal vote and a 1.12%
margin.
And formerly safe seats like Banks and Reid are now
in the equation, with Labor’s majority in Banks of
only 1.45% being less than half the deliberate
informal vote of 3.36% and Reid’s margin of 2.7% is
well below the 3.3% of deliberate informals.
And when other NSW seats are added to the list,
such as Robertson whose 1% margin is way under
the 2.5% deliberate informal vote, the magnitude of
Labor’s problem becomes evident even before
estimates are made about the extent to which the
anti-Labor swing in the 2011 NSW state election may
carry over to the federal poll.
This is an issue for those safer Labor seats where the
volume of deliberately informal votes is even bigger,
rising to 5.73% in Blaxland out of a total informal
vote of 14.6% against a margin of 12% and in
Watson it is 5.06% out of 12.8% informal, against a
majority of 9%. Others identified by the AEC as in the
big league for deliberately informal votes in western
Sydney are Fowler, Chifley, McMahon, Werriwa,
Barton and Parramatta.
BATTLEGROUND
W E S T E R N S Y D N E Y
10. ‘… massive falls in Labor support in
the seven months from the 2010
federal poll … go far beyond the
conventional view that many voters
really do discriminate between state
and federal issues and vote
accordingly.’
‘… there is still some merit in
relating the collapse in Labor
support in seats that lie within
vulnerable federal electorates to
comparable federal election results.
This indicates dire consequences for
Labor’s NSW marginal seats, four of
which would go with a mini-swing
of 1.5%’
So what will these disillusioned voters do after three
years of Julia Gillard?
The internal polling reported in November by the
Fairfax media that 10 seats in NSW, predominantly
in western Sydney, could fall, gives a hint of what the
answer will be.
It listed two ministers, Small Business’s Chris Bowen
in McMahon and Environment’s Tony Burke in
Watson as being in the firing line, with Cabinet
Secretary Jason Clare in Blaxland facing a “close
call”.
This may explain Clare’s recent January intervention
on the state issue of crime in western Sydney and
Julia Gillard’s all-talk-but-no-funding announcement
of a Clare-led investigation into ways to reduce
suburban violence and crime.
As Tony Abbott appropriately commented, the
federal government should be doing a lot better in
protecting our borders from criminal activity,
including illegal imports of weapons.
So these federal Labor seats may be at risk in NSW
not simply on the basis of the hiding Labor received
in western Sydney in the 2011 state election; in the
past there has been little correlation between state
and federal outcomes, evidenced, for example, by
Neville Wran’s 1976 victory coming within months of
Malcolm Fraser’s overwhelming 1975 win.
But the volume of voters who deliberately voted
informal federally in 2010 rather than vote against
their Labor MPs suggests that maybe these
“protesters” make up a sizeable proportion of the
many thousands who switched to O’Farrell in 2011
and will follow suit to Abbott in 2013.
An insight into the extent of this potential threat to
federal Labor is provided by a background paper by
the ABC’s Antony Green for the NSW Parliamentary
Library which relates state election results with the
2010 federal vote adjusted to state electoral
boundaries.
They show massive falls in Labor support in the
seven months from the 2010 federal poll that go far
beyond the conventional view that many voters
really do discriminate between state and federal
issues and vote accordingly.
There is no doubt that some of the anti-Labor
fervour revealed by the 16% swing in the NSW 2011
state election may have already been reflected in
Labor’s 4.84% drop in its federal 2010 NSW vote to
only 48.84%% (giving the Abbott coalition a 51.16%
majority in NSW), and that it may have diminished as
the memory of the unpopular Labor state
governments fade away despite media reports of
enquiries into allegations of ministerial corruption.
But there is still some merit in relating the collapse
in Labor support in seats that lie within vulnerable
federal electorates to comparable federal election
results.
pg.10|BattlegroundWesternSydney–MichaelBaume
11. ‘… there is nothing in the Electoral
Act to prevent a P.J. O’Rourke
“don’t vote, it only encourages the
bastards” campaign.’
This indicates dire consequences for Labor’s NSW
marginal seats, four of which would go with a mini-
swing of 1.5%, so giving the coalition a lower house
absolute majority. For example Robertson includes the
state seats of Gosford and Terrigal, with the former
showing a cut from Labor’s federal election vote in
comparable booths of 53.6% in 2010 to only 38.1%% in
2011, and Terrigal dropping from 46.7% to 25.9%.
Neighbouring Dobell includes The Entrance down from
54.6% to 37.5% and Wyong down from 59.7% to
47.4%. Lindsay covers Penrith, with a cut in federal
Labor’s 50.5% to 33.7% and Mulgoa down from 52% to
38%. Greenway includes Riverstone, down from 46% to
29.8%. Page takes in Clarence, almost halved from
51.6% to 28.6% and Lismore more than halved from
56.7% to 25.7%. And Eden-Monaro encompasses Bega
where Labor dropped from 52.4% to 31.4% and
Monaro down from 55.7% to 47.9%.
So what will happen in this year’s
election to the record number of deliberately informal
votes of 2010 has the potential to change the
government. And there is nothing illegal about voting
informal – or even encouraging people to do so. The
distinction between being required by law to vote and
yet being able legally to avoid voting for anyone was
demonstrated by former Labor leader Mark Latham,
who satisfied his desperate need to overcome what
former Labor Foreign Affairs minister Gareth Evans
described a “relevance deprivation syndrome” by
proposing on national television during the 2010
election campaign that Australians follow his lead by
turning up at the polling place, as required by law,
having your name checked off and then simply
inserting a blank ballot paper in the box.
It is, he said, “The ultimate protest vote”. While the
Electoral Act requires Australians to register to vote
and to attend a polling place, defines what are formal
and informal votes and lists penalties for misleading or
deceptive conduct that “might lead a voter to fail to
record a valid vote...,” Latham was in the clear, as an
AEC spokesman confirmed; his conduct (in this case, at
least) was not misleading or deceptive, even though he
clearly sought to subvert the intentions of the Act. And
there is nothing in the Electoral Act to prevent a P.J.
O’Rourke “don’t vote, it only encourages the bastards”
campaign.
So maybe the answer on September 14 will be an even
bigger deliberately informal vote; there is a level of
disillusionment about political parties that needs
addressing for the sake of a healthy democracy.
Most marginal
BATTLEGROUND
Western Sydney
BATTLEGROUND
Western Sydney
Parramatta (NSW) ALP 4.4% (Battleground)
Blair (QLD) ALP 4.2%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 4.2%
Page (NSW) ALP 4.2%
Lingiari (NT) ALP 3.7%
Capricornia (QLD) ALP 3.7%
Brand (WA) ALP 3.3%
Lilley (QLD) ALP 3.2%
Reid (NSW) ALP 2.7% (Battleground)
Petrie (QLD) ALP 2.5%
La Trobe (VIC) ALP 1.7%
Banks (NSW) ALP 1.5% (Battleground)
Denison (TAS) IND 1.2% v ALP
Moreton (QLD) ALP 1.1%
Lindsay (NSW) ALP 1.1% (Battleground)
Robertson (NSW) ALP 1.0%
Greenway (NSW) ALP 0.9% (Battleground)
Deakin (VIC) ALP 0.6%
Corangamite (VIC) ALP 0.3%
Boothby (SA) LIB 0.6%
Hasluck (WA) LIB 0.6%
Aston (VIC) LIB 0.7%
Dunkley (VIC) LIB 1.1%
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 1.1%
Macquarie (NSW) LIB 1.3%
Forde (QLD) LNP 1.6%
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.8%
Longman (QLD) LNP 1.9%
Casey (VIC) LIB 1.9%
Herbert (QLD) LNP 2.2%
Canning (WA) LIB 2.2%
Dawson (QLD) LNP 2.4%
Swan (WA) LIB 2.5%
Bonner (QLD) LNP 2.8%
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.0% (Battleground)
Bennelong (NSW) LIB 3.1%
Flynn (QLD) LNP 3.6%
Sturt (SA) LIB 3.6%
O'Connor (WA) NAT WA 3.6% v LIB
Fisher (QLD) LNP 4.1%
McMillan (VIC) LIB 4.2%
Leichhardt (QLD) LNP 4.6%
2013ElectoralPendulum-MarginalSeats1
1
Green, A. 2011, 2013 Australian Electoral Pendulum, Antony Green’s Election
Blog, ABC, http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/09/2013-australian-
electoral-pendulum.html accesseded 29 January 2013
pg.11|BattlegroundWesternSydney–MichaelBaume
12. The Wild West
Wells Haslem’s WA affiliate, Dr Ron
Edwards, was the Federal ALP
Member for the Perth seat of Stirling
from 1983 to 1993. In 2006 he was
awarded a Doctorate in Education
(UWA) which investigated factors
that promote social inclusion.
With both a State and Federal
election in 2013, he examines a side
of the WA resources boom some
politicians would rather ignore.
In October 2011 the Perth Mint unveiled the
world’s largest gold coin. You can go all the
way back through antiquity -- the Egyptians,
the Greeks and the Romans – and nothing
so large has ever been struck. It is a thing of
rare beauty.
Weighing in at 30,000 ounces, with the gold
price at US$1650 an ounce, the coin is
worth close to $50 million. The most
valuable ever minted.
But why did Western Australia produce a
coin of such size and value?
Firstly for the Queen, to mark her
attendance at the Commonwealth Heads of
Government Meeting in Perth in 2011,
where she can gaze on the most valuable
image of her to ever appear on a coin,
unveiled by WA Premier Colin Barnett.
And secondly … because it could.
And here, in stark and golden relief, is the
confidence and style of Western Australia.
People like Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest
epitomise this.
Be bold and go out and achieve something
of worth.
Just as Alan Bond did, when he set out to
win the America’s Cup. Assemble the most
creative team of designers, boat builders,
sports managers and sailors and think about
the best and most creative way to achieve
something.
WA faces federal and state elections in 2013
13. It is for this
reason that,
despite all
of his
corporate
scandals
and crimes,
the
adventurous spirit of Alan Bond is
remembered in Western Australia.
In recent years, due to the growth
of companies such as BHP Billiton,
Rio Tinto Iron Ore, Woodside,
Fortescue and others, WA is home
to some of the best people in the
resources sector anywhere in the
world. Accordingly others had to
lift their game.
But while much attention has
been paid to WA’s booming
economy and sense of prosperity,
there is another important story
being overlooked.
Most investment in physical
infrastructure is so huge that
projects without ‘billions’ in their
price tags rarely rate a mention.
Yet there is little discussion of the
commensurate social investment
required in a state where 1000
people per week join the
population.
The issue raised its head in the
most tragic way in 2011 with the
discovery by a cleaner of two
bodies in two motel rooms a
major Pilbara centre. Suicide was
later determined as the cause of
death in each case.
This was a resource town in the
middle of an Australian mining
boom lauded as the saviour, not
only of the individuals working in
the industry but of many other
Australians.
This was the industry that piloted
the nation through the GFC and
the backdrop for endless groups of
politicians wanting to be seen in
high-visibility vests and hard hats
in front of small mountains of iron
ore or gas production plants.
But there is part of this story that
some politicians don’t want to
acknowledge exists; one that is
the real consequence of the rapid
growth in resource developments.
Whether it be the phenomenon of
fly in fly out (FIFO), rapid increases
in personal wealth or simple social
dislocation, all is not as clean and
healthy as some of those political
leaders would have you believe.
Significant increases in the drug
trade and the prostitution industry
targeting resource workers are
indicators of these changes.
A glance at the rents in the Pilbara
tells another part of the story.
Weekly rents in Port Hedland are
$2301, Newman $2212, South
Hedland $1843, Karratha $1401,
Dampier $1335, Onslow $1625
and Tom Price $1500.
Where in all of this is the sense of
community envisaged originally by
those such as Sir Charles Court
who insisted upon mining
companies building community
towns as part of their licence to
proceed? In the rush for wealth
there is the risk of social fallout
that will not be welcomed in the
medium to long term.
That fallout won’t be confined to
the resource towns alone but will
be shared with places such as
Kogarah, Epping, Logan etc from
where the FIFO workers come. It
will be felt in terms of dislocated
families, alcohol and drug abuse
let alone the sense of entitlement
that comes from quickly-earned
wealth.
Australia now has the much-
discussed two speed economy but
in addition we have in the mining
areas three layers of economic
and social development.
At the top, those employed in the
private sector who are realising
significant incomes, many of
whom are FIFO workers.
The next layer consists of those
employed in areas such as federal,
state and local government such
as teachers, police officers and
nurses. Their incomes struggle to
match those in the resources
industries whilst experiencing the
increased cost pressures on
housing and other services.
The bottom layer consists of the
unemployed or otherwise
disadvantaged. The indigenous
communities make up an
important number of people in
this category.
Whilst all of this represents a
problem for governments and the
community there is also a great
opportunity to address the
situation provided the correct
policies and structures are put in
place.
The enormous wealth from the
resources sector means that, with
an appropriate governance
arrangement, the wealth of the
private sector can be harnessed
alongside the not-for-profit and
government sectors to address
these concerns at a local level.
Whilst this seems so obvious,
there is a failure of many to want
to recognise the problem let alone
address it. Apart from within the
Government of Western Australia
there is little understanding of the
issues involved nor an
appreciation as to how to address
them. Premier Barnett’s
Department of State Development
is engaged in social planning with
Rio Tinto in the Pilbara.
Additionally the agreement signed
for the Browse Basin gas
development envisages similar
outcomes for indigenous
communities in the Kimberley.
‘…all is not as clean and healthy as some of those political
leaders would have you believe. Significant increases in the drug
trade and the prostitution industry targeting resource workers
are indicators of these changes.’
pg.13|TheWildWest–DrRonEdwards
14. Much of the focus has been upon
the massive investments in the
physical infrastructure required
for these resource developments.
It is clear that a commensurate
investment is required in social
planning.
The impacts of these changes are
also seen in the schools, the
courts, resources for police
services, sporting teams and
health services provisions. All of
these areas are impacted by FIFO.
Another area that is set back is
volunteering. Whilst the
populations in resources areas
increase rapidly the capacity to
support the population through
local people, including in the role
of volunteers, is spread more
thinly. In some cases, such as
sporting teams and health
services, the impact can be largely
negative.
It is not too difficult to undertake
the strategic planning required by
the federal, state and local
governments to address these
concerns. What is required is the
political will at the Federal level
that this is a problem, yet there
has to be a recognition that the
problem exists. The problem
won’t be addressed by the Mining
Resource Rent Tax as currently
configured.
The emerging problems in the
resource regions require new
ways of thinking and a shift of
power away from the traditional
welfare models. When confronted
with the problem and the
observation that the social
problems can be addressed
through a strategic framework in
which private sector resources can
be made available there is little or
no capacity for many politicians
and bureaucrats to adjust.
The response very often from
those with vested interests is that
this approach is risky.
Of course it is risky. We might fail.
Yet what you are doing now is
failing. You are failing the
disadvantaged in our community.
The big risk in this approach is that
you might actually succeed and
then what?
pg.14|TheWildWest–DrRonEdwards
During the summer of 1986-87 a surprising selection
occurred in the Australian cricket team.
The player bowled off spin for Australia against England in
his first Test match and emerged with figures of 6 for 78.
He was man of the match. His name was Peter Taylor.
In September 2008, the retiring Member for the WA State
seat of Cottesloe, Colin Barnett, was stopped on his way
out the door by his own party and persuaded to take over
as Liberal leader. The subsequent election resulted in a
hung Parliament; however Colin Barnett went on to
become Premier following the formation of a coalition
with the Brendon Grylls National Party, which won 4
seats.
The Government was also supported by three
independents. The Liberal Party went from holding 18
seats in the previous Parliament to 24 in the new, while
Labor fell from 32 to 28. Labor ran a poorly-focussed and
directionless campaign in an election they were expected
to win, leading to Barnett becoming the surprise Premier.
The consequence is that Barnett is not owned by any of
the Liberal Party factions and doesn’t owe anyone any
favours. In a state that has also produced a political figure
like Brian Burke, this is an immensely powerful quality to
have on your side. Burke became infamous for many
things and allowing the proper processes of government
to become contaminated was one of them.
Barnett’s personal style, while cautious and low key,
reflects an old style Menzies Liberalism, with a strong
emphasis on moderation and recognition of the need to
show a social dividend from economic success.
His opponent Mark McGowan had 12 months to establish
himself but has struggled to cut through. For example,
Barnett deregulated retail trading hours. Labor for too
long was locked into appeasing the Shop Assistants Union
led by right-wing powerbroker Joe Bulloch.
McGowan’s predecessor Eric Ripper never took on the
challenge, leaving the impression Labor was locked into a pre-
Whitlam, 36-faceless-men policy position with unelected trade
union officials determining policy.
A similar position existed on the left with the Miscellaneous
Workers Union leader Dave Kelly carrying great policy weight.
The impression in the electorate was ALP policy depended on
Bulloch and Kelly’s assent.
McGowan has worked energetically to overcome this yet still
trails the Premier as preferred leader, as does the ALP in party
voting terms. Much of the interest in the election will rest in
those contests where the Nationals go in against their coalition
partners the Liberals and in seats held by independents such as
Fremantle and the southern Perth seat of Alfred Cove. Brendon
Grylls is taking on the seat of Pilbara, having left his safe
Nationals seat of Central Wheatbelt. Yet buoyed by his own
ground breaking Royalties for Regions Policy he stands a strong
chance to win the seat.
The state election will be held on 9 March and the campaign is
off and running with the usual sparring and an occasional
resort to negative messages.
Surely following the disastrous campaign by Anna Bligh’s Labor
Party in Queensland, the message must have sunk in that the
public has little time for negative political campaigns.
The Federal implications for Labor in WA are also ominous.
Julia Gillard is making great efforts to lift the Government’s
position in WA yet it still languishes. The legacies of the mining
tax, the carbon tax and marine national parks don’t assist the
Labor position in a resource state like WA. Essentially the trick
in Western Australia is for federal politicians to position
themselves alongside the community rather than against it.
Attacking the WA Government whether it is Labor or Liberal
will never work. Bob Hawke and John Howard both understood
this. The challenge for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott is to learn
how to position themselves in a similar fashion.
The ALP and Coalition face double the challenge in WA in 2013, with a State election in March and the
Federal Election in September.
15. Benjamin Haslem
Much has been made of the use of Social and Digital Media
during the recent US Presidential campaign, with Team
Obama’s better handle on new technology cited as the
possible difference in the final result.
A fundamental understanding of communication has always
been at the centre of a politician's arsenal, but as US writer
Daniel Nation argues “a firm grasp on the future of
communication can be the secret weapon that wins the
war”.
For Roosevelt, it was radio; for Kennedy, it was television;
for Obama, it is Social and Digital Media.
Or put another way, argues the NYT’s Steve Lohr,
“technology doesn’t win political campaigns, but it certainly
is a weapon — a force multiplier, in military terms”.
(Of course all that’s old can be new again. See John
Howard’s use of talk-back radio, when Prime Minister, to
circumvent the Canberra Press Gallery.)
Obama was the first US Presidential candidate to utilise
Social and Digital Media, developing a then unprecedented
following during his successful 2008 run. Clearly Republican
candidate Mitt Romney would have to heavily utilise the
new technology as part of his ammunition in 2012.
On election night last November, President Obama had 32
million Facebook fans, 21 million Twitter followers, and
259,685 YouTube views. Romney had 12 million Facebook
fans, 1.7 million Twitter followers, and only 29,172 YouTube
views.
In Romney and the GOP’s defence, Republicans are on
average older and less tech-savvy than Democrats and
Obama did have four years in the White House to build on
his already substantial digital shadow garnered in 2008.
But clearly the President’s team knew the importance of
social and digital media as a tool and did a better job using it
to create both influence and action.
How Barack Obama’s digital strategy changed political
campaigning and organising forever
16. And it’s the action part of the equation that is the most
instructive.
It is all well and good to have 32 million Facebook fans.
The late Michael Jackson’s FB page has more than 41
million likes, but it’s nigh on impossible its
administrators could have real influence over the
behaviour of the page’s fans.
While the success of the 2008 Obama campaign
strategy could be seen in the tasting of the pudding, it
had a fundamental weakness: too many databases.
Volunteers making phone calls through the Obama
website worked from lists that differed from those
used by callers in the physical campaign office. Get-
out-to-vote lists were never reconciled with
fundraising lists.
An Obama campaign official told Time Magazine: “We
analysed very early that the problem in Democratic
politics was you had databases all over the place (but)
none of them talked to each other”.
According to Personal Democracy Media’s senior staff
writer, Sarah Lai Stirland, the 2008 campaign was
unique in allowing grassroots supporters to take the
lead in States where the campaign lacked resources. It
led to an organic growth in support but this support
was also chaotic and unsynchronized.
Enter the Dashboard, a web application accessible by
signed-up volunteers — and viewable on smartphones
or tablets — showing the location of campaign field
workers, neighbourhoods to be canvassed, and blocks
where help was needed. It allowed people to join a
neighbourhood team and get assignments remotely,
without ever going to a central office.
The Obama Biden team developed a tool for telephone
canvassing from people’s homes instead of having to
travel to a campaign office and work from a telephone
bank. The call tool was a web program that let people
sign up to make calls. They received a list of phone
numbers, names and a script to use.
Volunteer callers’ profiles were matched with the lists
they received, so the callers were people with similar
life experiences to those being called, and thus more
likely to be persuasive.
The sheer scale of the online outreach and data
collection dwarfed the 2008 effort. For example, the
Barack Obama Facebook site had 33 million “likes,”
compared with 2 million for the previous campaign.
As Time Magazine’s White House correspondent,
Michael Scherer, explains it, campaign manager Jim
Messina promised a new, metric-driven of campaign in
which politics was the goal but political instincts might
not be the means.
“We are going to measure every single thing in this
campaign,” Messina said after taking the job.
He hired an analytics department five times as large as
that of 2008, with an official “chief scientist”, Rayid
Ghani, who in a previous life crunched huge data sets
to, among other things,
maximise the efficiency of
supermarket sales
promotions.
Ghani and the team created
a single massive system to
merge information
collected from pollsters,
fundraisers, field workers
and consumer databases as
well as social-media and
mobile contacts with the
main Democratic voter files
in the swing states.
The new mega-file didn’t
just tell the campaign how
to find voters and get their
attention; it also allowed
the number crunchers to
run tests predicting which
types of people would be
persuaded by certain kinds of appeals.
This helped Obama raise US$1 billion, remodelled the
how TV ads were targeted and created detailed models
of swing-state voters, used to increase the
effectiveness of everything from phone calls and door
knocks to direct mailings and social media.
Wells Haslem can provide you and your organisation with advice on using social and digital media as part of your
communications efforts. You can follow us on Twitter @WellsHaslem ; Facebook facebook.com/WellsHaslem or
Google+ gplus.to/WellsHaslem
17. It is the classic battle between the old world and the new,
so often played out in modern metropolises.
On the one side you have a sporting club, its roots deeply
set in what were once the waterside working class
suburbs of Balmain and Rozelle.
On the other, you have the newcomers, affluent city
professionals who have paid top dollar to live in their
gentrified neighbourhood with its chic cafes, wine bars,
pubs and expensive renovated terrace houses.
In between is a property developer hoping to build a
major residential and retail complex in the heart of the
Balmain-Rozelle Peninsula.
The sporting club, Balmain Leagues Club (BLC), has called
the corner of Victoria Road and Darling Street, Rozelle
(one of Sydney’s busiest peak-hour intersections) home
for more than 50 years.
However, the cold winds of the Global Financial Crisis, an
obstinate local council, and poor planning decisions by the
former NSW State Government, forced the Club – a
foundation member of what is now the National Rugby
League – to abandon its spiritual home and take up
temporary residence in Five Dock and Homebush.
In 2008, BLC won approval from Leichhardt Council to
redevelop its Rozelle site, following four years of
discussions with the Council.
By this stage, BLC had already weathered a major issue -
its construction company, Reed Constructions, and
financers, Lehman Brothers, had pulled out of the
redevelopment due to the GFC and the club went into
receivership.
A financial lifeline emerged in the shape of club legend
and then board member, Benny Elias, who put together a
consortium, Rozelle Village Pty Ltd, to take over the
massive reconstruction of the Rozelle site. Benny left the
club Board to avoid a conflict of interest.
In February 2009 NSW Minister for Transport David
Campbell announced the Sydney Metro rail system and
that Balmain Leagues Club would be used as a
construction site to build Rozelle Station.
Drawing the distinction between
Balmain Leagues Club’s campaign to
remain at its historical home at Rozelle
and the property developer who holds
the key to the club’s future has been
central to Wells Haslem’s strategy to
help the Tigers.
Benjamin Haslem
Keeping the Tigers in Rozelle
BALMAIN LEAGUES CLUB’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL
18. A successful outcome will ensure the club’s
members have access to modern facilities and that
the Rozelle site will remain a centre of social
interaction in Sydney’s inner-west.
Despite confirmation on 1 February 2010 by the Office of
the NSW Premier, that the Metro would be proceeding, in
mid-February the NSW Labor Government signalled the
likely scrapping of the Sydney Metro rail stop at Rozelle.
This was devastating for the Club, which had notified its
18,000 members of its
temporary closure, laid-
off staff, and entered into
commercial
arrangements with the
two other venues.
BLC Tigers now operates
from two smaller satellite
clubs – Tigers Five Dock
and Tigers Sydney
Markets, in Homebush.
Under the deal struck
with the Rozelle Village consortium, the BLC will remain at
Rozelle as a tenant in a major development that would
include a Coles Supermarket, childcare facilities, a
gymnasium, restaurants, other retail outlets and two 20-
storey residential towers.
It is the height of the development that has upset some
locals, who argue it is out of character for the
Rozelle-Balmain precinct and will add to already
heavy local traffic. This culminated in 600 angry
Rozelle residents staging a protest rally in June
2012.
The Rozelle Village has submitted multiple new
plans to modify the building addressing many
community concerns. These revised plans are
currently being considered by the NSW Government
appointed Planning Assessment Commission.
The Tigers came to Wells Haslem late last year, seeking
our advice on how best to communicate its case to a
range of stakeholders including local residents, the NSW
Government and the media.
At the heart of our strategy was the need to emphasise
that the club is not the
developer.
It does not own the site
but does need the
development to get the
green light if it hopes to
return to Rozelle and
remain financially
viable.
A successful outcome
will ensure the club’s
members have access to modern facilities and that the
Rozelle site will remain a centre of social interaction in
Sydney’s inner-west.
The club will be financially viable and able to continue to
support junior rugby league, so important in encouraging
children to participate in sport and stay fit and
healthy, and remain part of the Wests Tigers NRL
franchise.
In a mail out to members, inviting them to send
in submissions to the Planning Assessment
Commission, and in media releases and media
interviews, the club emphasised the Tigers’
historical links to the local area and that it is part of the
community fabric.
It is something worth preserving.
pg.18|KeepingtheTigersinRozelle–BenjaminHaslem
19. Photo courtesy of
Manly Sea Eagles
Leading National Rugby League club, the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, is
pressing ahead with plans to transform Brookvale Oval into a sporting and
educational centre of excellence, in line with the NSW State Government’s
recently-unveiled stadia strategy.
The famous ground, in the heart of Sydney’s picturesque Northern Beaches, is
listed as a tier-two oval in the O’Farrell administration’s strategy.
However, for a long time now, ‘Brookie’ has been far from a ground capable of
holding a large crowd in comfort nor a facility providing modern sports and
recreation facilities, seven days a week, to its local community. With its ageing
stands and lack of capacity, Brookvale is often referred to as a relic from the
days of suburban rugby league and not a modern stadium befitting a national
rugby league competition. Well now it’s time to act.
The State Government’s funding
priorities on the Northern Beaches
appear to be restricted somewhat
to the construction of the new
hospital at Frenchs Forrest. St
Augustine’s College has already
pledged financial support to help
the redevelopment, so they can use
the new facilities.
The park at the northern end of
Brookvale Oval will be expanded
and remain for public use. The
whole redeveloped Brookvale
facility will be available for public
use. And while it will continue to be
the home ground for the Sea Eagles,
other sporting teams such as Manly
Rugby (Union) Club will also be able
to use the ground for their matches.
Architects are now working on
drawings that capture the current
structure of the ground and stands
and will incorporate the history of
the site. It will not be a high rise re-
development. Rather a re-
engineering of what is already there,
with additions to improve capacity
and functionality of the oval, stands
and parking.
A meeting was held with the NSW
Sports Minister, Graham Annesley,
in early January, to outline the
broad concept of the proposal and
to get the government’s feedback
on the proposals.
Once plans and costings are fully
developed it will be taken to
government at all levels.
Go the Sea Eagles.
College – a secondary Catholic boys’
college across the road – plus
training facilities for other sports,
including rugby union, soccer and
basketball, for other local schools.
There will also be swimming
facilities, open to the public.
The Sea Eagles will ensure the local
Warringah Council supports and
approves the plans.
The State Government has told
Manly that while there are no
government funds earmarked for
grounds like Brookvale, it will
consider helping suburban venues
like Brookvale become centres of
excellence.
Local Liberal State Government
members, Brad Hazzard and Mike
Baird, will be asked to support the
new proposals. They have long been
supporters of the Sea Eagles.
The Sea Eagles board has formed a
special committee to develop a
plan, which it will put to the Federal
and State Government. The blue
print will ensure any redevelopment
of the oval is done quickly and in the
best interests of the whole
community – not just the Sea
Eagles.
Wells Haslem is working with the
committee to help it bring its ideas
and plans together to form an
innovative proposal to take to
governments and the community.
The redevelopment concept will
involve the establishment of a State
Trust, providing it is revenue neutral
to the NSW Government.
The ground will transformed into a
sporting and education centre of
excellence, housing teaching
facilities for use by St Augustine’s
Delivering the Sea-Eagles’ 21st-century community
sporting facility to the Northern Beaches John Wells
pg. 19 | Delivering the Sea-Eagles’… - John Wells
20. Back in 2007 it seemed infrastructure was on everyone’s lips. It was the
centrepiece of Kevin Rudd’s federal election campaign speech and
inextricably tied to the need to improve the nation’s flagging productivity.
State Governments across the country were announcing record capital
spending in their budgets along with ambitious infrastructure plans for
new rail lines, toll roads and port expansions. The creation of
Infrastructure Australia (IA) in early 2008, backed by a healthy federal
budget surplus including the “Building Australia Fund”, heralded a new
way forward for the planning and prioritisation of major public
infrastructure projects to get people, goods and the economy moving.
Then the global financial crisis arrived. The federal surplus was deployed
towards a huge program of quick cash handouts and capital spending
across the nation to keep the retail and construction sectors (and
therefore the economy) ticking over. But it virtually spelled the end of any
significant Federal Government funding support for much needed, multi-
billion dollar infrastructure projects sitting on state government books.
At the same time, international credit rating agencies, their reputations
badly damaged in the GFC, began to warn the States their much coveted
triple-A ratings were under threat and their capital spending not
sustainable unless they reduced expenditure and increased revenues.
Queensland flouted the warnings in its 2009/10 budget by maintaining its
capital spending and announcing a significant deficit. The Sunshine State
was immediately downgraded to double-A status. Across the country, the
brakes were applied to ambitious new plans, capital spending started to
fall again and quietly infrastructure went into the too hard basket once
more.
THE INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGE
Increasing population and ever tightening budgets
present huge challenges for Australian governments
under pressure to deliver much-needed infrastructure.
Wells Haslem Special Counsel, Julie Sibraa, examines
some of the solutions.
21. In 2013, infrastructure may no longer be the word of the day, but the
challenges are greater than ever. By the middle of the century, Australia’s
population is expected to exceed 40 million people and the national
freight task set to triple. The majority of this population and transport
burden is felt in the largest capital cities. The most recent ‘State of the
Cities’ Report released by IA stated that in the decade between 2001 and
2011, Australia’s population grew by 15 per cent, with 40 per cent of this
growth being accommodated in Sydney and Melbourne. The Report also
indicates the country is experiencing a protracted period of static or
falling productivity growth.
Additionally, a Citigroup report from 2008 estimated the investment in
economic infrastructure investment task in the decade ahead is more
than a$770 billion (2007 dollars) if the quality of capital stock is to return
to a level that will sustain Australia’s ongoing prosperity. Several other
studies report similar findings.
While there’s little argument about the need for investment in
infrastructure, particularly public infrastructure such as road and rail
projects, the means of funding that infrastructure remains the major
hurdle.
With governments unable to fund the investment alone, private financing
is critical. Of the $770 billion investment required in the Citigroup Report,
$360 billion was estimated to need to come from the private sector.
And while private sector investment in resources – mines, roads and ports
– is proceeding apace, investment in public sector infrastructure is a
different story. So given this environment, how can government meet the
infrastructure needs of their growing populations and deliver major public
infrastructure projects? While there is no single, silver bullet solution to
this problem, the following list briefly describes the suite of options
available to government.
Julie Sibraa
has 20 years’
experience in public
policy in both the
government and
private sectors and
spent nearly two
years as National
Policy Manager for
Infrastructure
Partnerships Australia
– the peak body for
the Infrastructure
industry.
Wells Haslem
consultants have
extensive experience
working with
companies in the
infrastructure space,
including:
Leighton Holdings;
Leighton Contractors;
Evans & Peck;
CP2; and
FreightLink.
22. Asset sales
There is a strong argument around recycling capital based on a “rationale
for continuing ownership” test.
Governments across Australia at all levels hold mature assets, such as
ports and toll roads, which can generate long-term stable returns for
investors, particularly superannuation funds. Revenue from the sale or
lease of these assets can then be used to fund new infrastructure.
Public private partnerships (PPPs)
With far more knowledge and experience with these complex structures,
and putting aside ideologically-based opposition, PPPs offer an effective
and timely vehicle for private investment in large public projects.
In particular, the availability-based PPP, in which the private sector builds,
maintains and sometimes operates the asset over a fixed year term and
the government pays an “availability” fee, is a very attractive option for
social infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, stadiums and social
housing.
The fact that maintenance costs are built into the annual fee means that
when the asset is handed back to government, it is in a well-maintained
state. Despite its somewhat infamous reputation, the toll road PPP is also
still a viable procurement model, particularly where traffic forecasts are
known.
Reducing operating expenditure to increase capacity to take on more
debt
Finding structural ongoing efficiencies in the delivery of public services will
free up resources that can be invested into productivity boosting
economic and social infrastructure. It will also allow government to take
on “good” debt that can be used to fund projects.
Tax changes
Greater incentives for private investment in infrastructure can be
achieved through taxation measures such as the treatment of tax losses
and Managed Investment Trusts (MITs) and infrastructure bonds.
Stamp duty also remains an impediment to greater investment in
brownfield infrastructure projects.
User charges and additional revenue streams to directly fund
infrastructure
The toll road is the most well-known method of governments directly
raising funds to pay for infrastructure.
An Ernst & Young paper commissioned by the Federal Government and
released in 2012 describes how Tax Increment Finance can create a
revenue stream for local government from increases in the value of
property benefitting from new infrastructure.
Superannuation funds
With an estimated
superannuation pool of funds at
$1.3 trillion, Australian
superannuation is often seen as
the answer to the infrastructure
financing question. However
only about one third of funds
invest in infrastructure and of
that number, the investment in
infrastructure makes up 2-10%.
Like any investor,
superannuation funds have an
obligation to invest based on
their assessment of return
versus risks. A well-structured
project of scale with a large
degree of certainty around the
government funding
commitment as well as
regulatory certainty will be an
attractive investment.
Extracting or leveraging better
use or value from existing
assets
Some assets are simply
underutilised or have greater
value that can be extracted. For
example there have been strong
arguments that, in the medium
term, there would not be the
need for a second Sydney
Airport for if the curfew were
lifted or more landings were
permitted per hour. In the case
of roads, measures such as HOT
lanes, allow road users the
option of paying more for a less
congested lane, thus raising
funds for road upgrades or new
roads. Several reports have also
recommended governments
introduce measures such as road
pricing and congestion charging
to pay for new or improved road
facilities.
pg.22| The Infrastructure Challenge – Julie Sibraa
23. The increasing demand on charities and shrinking
government aid dollars means not-for-profits
have to rethink their marketing strategies.
Alexandra Mayhew reports digital offers an
exciting and cost-effective solution.
As governments reduce spending, budgets are cut, including
much needed aid grants. What was once a competitive not-for-
profit (NFP) space is now cut-throat.
Charities are facing smaller budgets and an increasing
population – and therefore an increasing need for aid – a very
serious predicament. Now more than ever, organisations must
make every dollar stretch further.
In a world where brand is king, NFPs are left with minimal
budgets to market themselves, a key factor in gaining public
donations.
One aspect many Australian charities seem to be lacking is
innovation in digital.
Some believe they have digital covered with a weekly-updated
Facebook page and instead continue to rely on colour brochures
sent via snail mail to thousands of donors as their primary form
of communication (note the cost of this approach).
The argument of alienating audiences by moving communication
efforts online is unfounded; there is no denying that the
majority of Australians are interacting with at least one form of
social media. There are over 11million Australian’s on Facebook
(that’s 53% of the population) and 2.1million are on Twitter
(each with an average of 115 followers).
Charities must better understand their
demographics and realise it is more
effective to garner the support of a 20-
somwething via a direct public tweet that
shows the world that person is a
responsible global citizen, then to send that
person a letter in the post.
Charities should not make the mistake of
thinking it is only iGen and GenY on social
media. 34% of Australian Twitter users are
aged 45-54.
And don’t think the older Baby Boomers
aren’t there either. Many have accounts,
albeit set-up by their more tech-savvy
offspring, but nonetheless they are
interacting in the space. And this digital
relationship can be used in conjunction with
more traditional marketing techniques.
Social media has made it easier to target
genders, for example, 66% of Australian
Twitter users are male, while the power of
the mummy bloggers cannot be ignored
(and creating relationships with these
women can result in powerful brand reach).
While charities struggled to survive the GFC
one charity is worth noting, charity: water.
The organisation managed to develop
swiftly since its creation, boasting rapidly
growing amounts of money invested in
water programs throughout the world
(2009: $5,439,281; 2010: $8,609,576; 2011:
$17,646,927).
DIGITAL GIVING
Alexandra Mayhew
Digital delivers NFPs a culture of inclusion . . . and giving
pg. 23 | Digital Giving – Alexandra Mayhew
24. Why has this charity blossomed while so many others have
folded?
Firstly, its communication techniques. When someone donates
to charity: water, the NFP works fast to develop an online
relationship with the donor, emailing information about the
donation process and explaining exactly where the money is
going - to the point of GPS details on the well that money
helped to build. It creates a profile for that donor on its site for
anyone to see and tracks all donations coming into that account
and any that person makes to other people within charity:
water.
Also it’s the simplicity. Simply donate a birthday, or a Christmas.
And finally, people know 100% of their donations go directly to
the field to fund water projects. Operating expenses are
covered via other avenues.
Gen Y is often referred to as Generation Me. A cohort of young people labelled selfish, apathetic and maybe
even a little bit lazy.
However, step into a United Nations Association of Australia (UNAA) Young Professionals (YP) event and you will
realise our country is home to many passionate, caring and motivated young Australian’s committed to making a
difference in the world.
The UNAA YP involves young professionals throughout Australia in international affairs and the work of the
United Nations around the world, through fundraising, awareness-raising and advocacy campaigns.
The UNAA YP fills the gap between enthusiastic students and the baby-boomers involved in the UN. The YP cater
to 20-40 year olds, providing relevant events that spread the word of the UN and creates connections for them
with charity groups.
The group also focuses on raising much needed funds for its sister organisations, including UN Women, UNICEF,
and UNHCR and their vital initiatives.
Founded in NSW 2011, the YP was piloted for 12 months in NSW. Following the success of the Inaugural
National Conference on UN Day in 2012, the network is now rolling out nationally in selected states.
The events are varied and cater from the educational, such as refugees stories, to the tangible, such as how to
establish a charity. An upcoming event is in support of International Women’s Day and will focus on violence
against women and what this means to Gen Y.
As a member of the Leadership Team, I’ve seen firsthand the commitment young Australians have to continuing
the good work of the UN and I truly believe the future is safe in Gen Ys hands.
The next UNAA YP event is ‘Insights into an unspoken culture of violence... What Gen Y'ers don't Tweet about’ on
Tuesday 26th February 6.30pm in Sydney. It aligns with International Women’s Day and will raise funds for UN
Women Australia's main project Critical Services Initiative in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Purchase tickets here:
http://www.trybooking.com/ 42141
It is easy to talk with charity: water on
Facebook, twitter or via the website. It
sends donors detailed reports, videos, and
invites to its parties. A charity: water donor
is made to feel a part of the organisation.
It is this culture of inclusion and rapid,
relevant communication that Australia
charities must adopt.
It is time to abandon the old marketing
plans, review the communications plans and
get serious about digital.
The internet changed the game and social
media transformed it. It is up to NFPs to
adapt or be swept off into the return to
sender pile.
UN YOUNG PROFESSIONALS
pg. 24 | UN Young Professionals – Alexandra Mayhew
25. The Asia Society
is a not-for-profit organisation
dedicated to furthering the
understanding of the countries
and cultures of Asia and the
global issues that impact the
region.
Founded in 1956 by John D
Rockefeller III in New York,
today the Asia Society is an
international organisation with
centres in the United States
and Asia.
The Asia Society seeks to
increase knowledge and
enhance dialogue, encourage
creative expression and
generate new ideas across the
fields of arts and culture.
The centres in Hong Kong,
Houston, Los Angeles, Manila,
Mumbai, New York, San
Francisco, Seoul, Shanghai,
Sydney and Washington DC
deliver a global network across
the United States and Asia with
unparalleled access to
influential business, policy and
cultural leaders in Asia and an
extensive network of members.
Wells Haslem has been working
with the Asia Society and its
Australian Chairman, The Hon
Warwick Smith, to help further
this dialogue in Australia.
Late last year the Asia
Society Australia hosted
the Prime Ministers of
Singapore, H. E. Mr Lee
Hsien Loong and the
President of the Republic
of the Philippines, H. E.
Beniogno Simeon C
Aquino III.
Mr Smith said that Asian
leaders had a strong and
enduring relationship with
Australia and the role of the
Asia Society here was to help
promote and prolong that
understanding.
“We will engage further with
Asia in the coming months and
years and Australia should take
its role in Asia seriously,” Mr
Smith said. “The Asia Society
here in Australia will host more
functions with leading Asian
figures this year and we
welcome all Australian
business to be involved and
engaged,” Mr Smith said.
The Hon. Warwick Smith AO
Chairman, Asia Society Australia
A long time ago…26 years ago to be precise, I
first met John Wells. He was the press secretary
to then leader of the opposition and later, Prime
Minister John Howard.
At that time, I was the member for the most
marginal federal seat in the Australian
Parliament – Bass in Tasmania.
When John left the mad house of Federal
Parliament, he started his own consulting
business – Jackson Wells with Keith Jackson.
They became an enduring partnership and built
a very good business.
When I left politics and became the first
Telecommunications Industry Ombudsman, I
asked John to help me launch the TIO. That was
20 years ago.
Ever since then, John and his team have worked
closely with me in many business roles – at
Macquarie Bank and now at Australian Capital
Equity and ANZ, to provide sound strategic
communications advice and wise counsel on all
things relating to Public Relations and issues
management.
John has since left Jackson Wells and started a
new business, Wells Haslem which boasts
members of the old Jackson Wells team. They
are a lean and capable outfit and provide great
communications advice, issues management and
government relations advice.
Well done John and his team.
Building an understanding of Asia in Australia
ASIA SOCIETY
John Wells
An enduring business enterprise
…and a great friendship
26. AFFILIATES
Rob Masters – Melbourne
Robert Masters & Associates (RMA) is a strategic
communication and stakeholder engagement consultancy.
Since its inception, its approach to strategic communication
programs, community consultation and stakeholder
engagement processes have earned it a reputation of being at
the leading edge of communication management for over 30
years.
Our services and clients cover the energy sector (oil, gas, coal),
electricity, forestry, government (federal, state, local) water,
finance, automotive, health and health research,
pharmaceutical, education, transport (road and rail),
information technology, primary industry, environment and
retail.
Dr Ron Edwards – Western Australia
Ron is one of WA’s most respected government relations
specialists, enjoying an excellent working relationship with all
sides of politics.
Born in Perth, Ron was educated at the University of Western
Australia and the University of Sydney, later becoming a
lecturer in economics and industrial relations. In 1983, he was
elected to Federal Parliament as the Labor member for the
Perth beachside electorate of Stirling. Ron held Stirling until his
defeat by Liberal Eoin Cameron in 1993.
Prior to leaving parliament, Ron was Deputy Speaker. In 2006
he was awarded a PhD in Education from the University of WA,
which investigated factors that promote social inclusion.
Ron is a keen AFL fan and in 1994 helped established The
Graham (Polly) Farmer Foundation. He has been a Board
member since its inception.The Foundation was established in
1995 by a group of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians
to provide support to Indigenous youth to realise their full
potential.
Ron, who has extensive experience in the fisheries and mining
sectors, assists Wells Haslem clients communicate with the WA
State Government and Federal MPs and Senators based in WA.
27. For the past 21
Years John was a
founding partner
and senior
consultant in one
of Australia’s
leading public
relations
companies,
Jackson Wells.
Prior to that
John’s career
embraced
journalism at the
most senior
levels in Australia
and overseas. He
has extensive
experience in
media
management in
both television
and radio, has
provided policy
advice to Federal
political leaders
and offers public
affairs
consulting.
Benjamin has 20
years’ experience
in the media.
Ben worked at
Jackson Wells for
nine years, where
he managed and
worked on
complex projects
and became a
Director and CEO.
Ben possesses an
acute
understanding of
mainstream media,
having spent the
best part of a
decade working for
The Australian
newspaper in
Sydney, Canberra
and Melbourne.
Ben has lectured
students from the
City University of
Hong Kong on
public relations
and government
affairs.
Immediately
before joining
Jackson Wells, Ben
was The Australian
newspaper’s High
Court
correspondent and
regularly acted as
Chief-of-Staff at
the Sydney Bureau.
From 1999-2002,
he was based in
the Parliamentary
press gallery in
Canberra.
Alexandra has five
years’ experience
in the public
relations industry
and a
communications
degree from
Charles Sturt
University.
Alexandra
previously: was an
Account Manager
at Jackson Wells;
headed up
marketing and
media at an
extreme sports
publishing
company; and
worked with a
consumer public
relations
consultancy.
Kerry’s career has
embraced the
highest levels of
Australian political
life and the cutting
edge of business
development. He
was an ALP
Senator for NSW
for 19 years,
including President
of the Australian
Senate from 1987
until retiring from
Parliament in 1994
to become
Australia’s High
Commissioner to
Zimbabwe and six
other southern
African nations.
He is a former
director of
Zimbabwe
Platinum Mines
and World IT.
From 2003 to 2010
he served the
Government of the
Republic of
Mozambique as
their Honorary
Consul-General in
Australia.
In 1996, he was
awarded an Order
of Australia.
Kerry Sibraa AO
Special Counsel
Julie has 20 years’
experience in
public policy in
both the
government and
private sectors.
She began her
roles in
government during
the Hawke/Keating
era, working with
Federal
parliamentarians
including the
Health Minister
where she had
responsibility for
drug policy, mental
health and
women’s health.
She later worked
for NSW Minister
John Della Bosca,
for nine years, the
office of the
Premier of NSW,
and was COS to the
NSW Treasurer.
In 2009 was the
Deputy Chief of
Staff to the Federal
Minister for
Employment
Participation.
Julie spent nearly
two years as
National Policy
Manager for
Infrastructure
Partnerships
Australia.
Julie Sibraa
Special Counsel
Trevor has 25
years’ experience
across PR and
government.
A pioneer in digital
media, Trevor Co-
authored one of
the first Australian
monographs for
corporates on
social media.
Prior to being an
independent
consultant (2008 –
2012), Trevor was
Principal
Consultant and
Partner at Jackson
Wells for 11 years.
Trevor began his
career as a
ministerial adviser
to John Dawkins
and as a senior
executive in the
Australian Public
Service,
Department of
Industrial
Relations.
Trevor holds a
Bachelor of
Economics
(Honours) (1981)
and a PhD (2012)
from the University
of Sydney. Trevor
is a casual lecturer
in Australian
politics at
University of
Sydney.
Michael is a former
diplomat, front-
bench federal
politician,
consultant,
journalist, public
company director,
stockbroker, TV
panellist and
commentator,
author and public
speaker.
He is Deputy
Chairman of the
American
Australian
Association Ltd, a
member of the
Sydney Symphony
Orchestra Council
and a former
board-member of
the United States
Studies Centre at
Sydney University.
He is a contributor
to the Spectator
Magazine and a
former regular
columnist in the
Australian
Financial Review.
Michael
Baume AO
Special Counsel
(Emeritus)
The Wells Haslem Team
John Wells
Chairman
Benjamin Haslem
CEO
Alexandra
Mayhew
Partner
Dr Trevor Cook
Digital Counsel
28. CLIENTS
Asia Society Australia
Australian Constructors Association
Australian Water
Balmain Leagues Club
Boehringer Ingelheim
Church of Scientology
Insurance Council of Australia
James Hardie
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Mission Australia
The Plymouth Brethren Christian Church
Royal Flying Doctor Service
Sonartech Atlas
The Women’s College (University of Sydney)
The Whitlam Institute
Zurich
CONTACT
Wells Haslem Strategic Public Affairs
P +62 9033 8667
E mail@wellshaslem.com.au
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Designed and produced by Wells Haslem Strategic Public Affairs PTY LTD February 2013