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Finance Lecture:
Risk, Return and the Cost of Equity

            Brad Simon
Lecture Overview
     Risk and Return
     Measuring Returns
     Volatility
     Portfolios
     Diversification
     Risk Premium
     CAPM
     Summary



2
Motivating the topic: Risk and Return




3
Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
     The relationship between risk and return is
     fundamental to finance theory




4
Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
     The relationship between risk and return is
      fundamental to finance theory
     You can invest very safely in a bank or in
      Treasury bills. Why would you invest in
      risky stocks and bonds?




5
Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
     The relationship between risk and return is
      fundamental to finance theory
     You can invest very safely in a bank or in
      Treasury bills. Why would you invest in
      risky stocks and bonds?
     If you want the chance of earning higher
       returns, it requires that you take on higher risk
       investments



6
Motivating the topic: Risk and Return
     The relationship between risk and return is
      fundamental to finance theory
     You can invest very safely in a bank or in
      Treasury bills. Why would you invest in
      risky stocks and bonds?
     If you want the chance of earning higher
       returns, it requires that you take on higher risk
       investments
     There is a positive relationship between
     risk and return
7
Historical Returns




8
Historical Returns
                          Ending Price - Beginning   Price      Dividend
    Percentage   Return
                                 Beginning   Price           Beginning     Price




9
Historical Returns
                           Ending Price - Beginning   Price         Dividend
     Percentage   Return
                                  Beginning   Price              Beginning     Price


     Percentage   Return    Capital Gains Yield       Dividend    Yield




10
Historical Returns
                           Ending     Price     -Beginning     Price         Dividend
     Percentage   Return
                                      Beginning       Price              Beginning      Price


     Percentage   Return    Capital     Gains      Yield      Dividend     Yield


      Example: You held 250 shares of Hilton Hotel‟s
        common stock. The company‟s share price was
        $24.11 at the beginning of the year. During the year,
        the company paid a dividend of $0.16 per share, and
        ended the year at a price of $34.90. What is the
        dollar return, the percentage return, the capital gains
        yield, and the dividend yield for Hilton?
11
Historical Returns




12
Historical Returns
      Percent return = Capital gains yield +
      Dividend Yield




13
Historical Returns
      Percent return = Capital gains yield +
      Dividend Yield

       Capital gains yield = ($34.90 - $24.11)/$24.11
                           = 44.75%




14
Historical Returns
      Percent return = Capital gains yield +
      Dividend Yield

       Capital gains yield = ($34.90 - $24.11)/$24.11
                           = 44.75%

       Dividend yield = $0.16/$24.11
                      = 0.66%




15
Historical Returns
      Percent return = Capital gains yield +
      Dividend Yield

       Capital gains yield = ($34.90 - $24.11)/$24.11
                           = 44.75%

       Dividend yield = $0.16/$24.11
                      = 0.66%

       Percent return = 44.75% + 0.66%
                      = 45.42%
16
Volatility




17
Volatility
      High volatility in historical returns are an
       indication that future returns will be volatile




18
Volatility
      High volatility in historical returns are an
       indication that future returns will be volatile
      One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
       compute the standard deviation of percentage
       returns




19
Volatility
      High volatility in historical returns are an
       indication that future returns will be volatile
      One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
       compute the standard deviation of percentage
       returns
        Standard deviation is a measure of total risk




20
Volatility
      High volatility in historical returns are an
       indication that future returns will be volatile
      One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
       compute the standard deviation of percentage
       returns
        Standard deviation is a measure of total risk
        A large standard deviation indicates greater
         return variability, or high risk



21
Volatility
      High volatility in historical returns are an
       indication that future returns will be volatile
      One popular way of quantifying volatility is to
       compute the standard deviation of percentage
       returns
        Standard deviation is a measure of total risk
        A large standard deviation indicates greater
         return variability, or high risk
                            N
                                                                    2
                                  (Return   t
                                                - Average Return)
                            t 1
       Standard Deviation
                                                 N -1

22
Volatility - Example




23
Volatility - Example
      Example:
        Using the following returns, calculate the average
         return, the variance, and the standard deviation for
         Acme stock.




24
Volatility - Example
      Example:
        Using the following returns, calculate the average
         return, the variance, and the standard deviation for
         Acme stock.

           Year         Acme
            1           10%
            2            4
            3           -8
            4           13
            5            5


25
Volatility - Example
     Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 =
      4.80%




26
Volatility - Example
     Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 =
      4.80%

     σ2Acme = [(10 – 4.8)2 + (4 – 4.8)2 (- 8 – 4.8)2
                 + (13 – 4.8)2 + (5 – 4.8)2 ] / (5 - 1)




27
Volatility - Example
     Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 =
      4.80%

     σ2Acme = [(10 – 4.8)2 + (4 – 4.8)2 (- 8 – 4.8)2
                 + (13 – 4.8)2 + (5 – 4.8)2 ] / (5 - 1)

     σ2Acme = 258.8 / 4 = 64.70




28
Volatility - Example
     Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 =
      4.80%

     σ2Acme = [(10 – 4.8)2 + (4 – 4.8)2 (- 8 – 4.8)2
                 + (13 – 4.8)2 + (5 – 4.8)2 ] / (5 - 1)

     σ2Acme = 258.8 / 4 = 64.70

     σAcme = (64.70)1/2 = 8.04%


29
Volatility - Application




30
Volatility - Application




31
Volatility - Application




      The volatility of stocks is much higher than the
      volatility of bonds and T-bills



32
Volatility - Application




      The volatility of stocks is much higher than the
       volatility of bonds and T-bills
      Different periods had differing levels of volatility
       for the same asset class
33
Diversifying risk: Portfolios




34
Diversifying risk: Portfolios
      In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
       higher risks must come with (the potential for)
       higher returns.




35
Diversifying risk: Portfolios
      In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
       higher risks must come with (the potential for)
       higher returns.
      More volatile stocks should have, on average,
       higher returns.




36
Diversifying risk: Portfolios
      In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
       higher risks must come with (the potential for)
       higher returns.
      More volatile stocks should have, on average,
       higher returns.
      We can reduce volatility for a given level of
       return by grouping assets into portfolios




37
Diversifying risk: Portfolios
      In the beginning of the lecture we saw that
       higher risks must come with (the potential for)
       higher returns.
      More volatile stocks should have, on average,
       higher returns.
      We can reduce volatility for a given level of
       return by grouping assets into portfolios
      This is known as “diversifying risk”




38
Diversifying risk: Example




39
Diversifying risk: Example
      In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
      company may fail in getting approval of a new
      drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.




40
Diversifying risk: Example
      In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
       company may fail in getting approval of a new
       drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
      But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical
       company will fail major drug trials in the same
       year.




41
Diversifying risk: Example
      In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
       company may fail in getting approval of a new
       drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
      But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical
       company will fail major drug trials in the same
       year.
      On average, some are likely to be successful
       while others will fail.




42
Diversifying risk: Example
      In a given year a particular pharmaceutical
       company may fail in getting approval of a new
       drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.
      But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical
       company will fail major drug trials in the same
       year.
      On average, some are likely to be successful
       while others will fail.
      Therefore, the returns for a portfolio comprised of
       all drug companies will have much less volatility
       than that of a single drug company.
43
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)




44
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      By holding stock in the entire sector of
      pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
      risk as just described.




45
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      By holding stock in the entire sector of
       pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
       risk as just described.
      But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may
       impact all drug companies.




46
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      By holding stock in the entire sector of
       pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
       risk as just described.
      But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may
       impact all drug companies.
      For example, if the FDA changes its drug-
       approval policy and requires all new drugs to go
       through more strict testing we would expect the
       entire sector – and our portfolio comprised of all
       pharmaceutical companies – to suffer.


47
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      By holding stock in the entire sector of
       pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of
       risk as just described.
      But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may
       impact all drug companies.
      For example, if the FDA changes its drug-
       approval policy and requires all new drugs to go
       through more strict testing we would expect the
       entire sector – and our portfolio comprised of all
       pharmaceutical companies – to suffer.
      But what if we held a portfolio of not just
       pharmaceuticals but also of computer companies,
48     manufacturing companies, service companies
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)




49
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
      even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
      just one sector.




50
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
       even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
       just one sector.
      In fact, we can imagine a market-level
       portfolio comprised of all assets.




51
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
       even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
       just one sector.
      In fact, we can imagine a market-level
       portfolio comprised of all assets.
      Such a market portfolio would still have
       uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
       reduced compared to just one asset or even a
       group of related assets


52
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
       even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
       just one sector.
      In fact, we can imagine a market-level
       portfolio comprised of all assets.
      Such a market portfolio would still have
       uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
       reduced compared to just one asset or even a
       group of related assets
      We can then think of risk as having two
53
       components:
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
       even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
       just one sector.
      In fact, we can imagine a market-level
       portfolio comprised of all assets.
      Such a market portfolio would still have
       uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
       reduced compared to just one asset or even a
       group of related assets
      We can then think of risk as having two
54
       components:
        Firm-specific risk (or asset-specific risk)
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      We would expect this expanded portfolio to be
       even less risky than a portfolio comprised of
       just one sector.
      In fact, we can imagine a market-level
       portfolio comprised of all assets.
      Such a market portfolio would still have
       uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly
       reduced compared to just one asset or even a
       group of related assets
      We can then think of risk as having two
55
       components:
        Firm-specific risk (or asset-specific risk)
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)




56
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      Firm-specific risk can be diversified away




57
Diversifying risk: Example
     (cont‟d)
      Firm-specific risk can be diversified away
      Market-level risk cannot be eliminated




58
Diversifying risk: Naming




59
Diversifying risk: Naming
      Firm-specific risk is also called:
        Asset-specific risk
        Diversifiable risk
        Idiosyncratic risk
        Unsystematic risk




60
Diversifying risk: Naming
      Firm-specific risk is also called:
        Asset-specific risk
        Diversifiable risk
        Idiosyncratic risk
        Unsystematic risk

      Market-level risk is also called:
        Systematic Risk
        Market risk
        Non-diversifiable risk




61
Diversifying risk: Graph




62
Diversifying risk: Graph




63
Diversifying risk: Conclusions




64
Diversifying risk: Conclusions
      Investors are only compensated for risks their
      bear.




65
Diversifying risk: Conclusions
      Investors are only compensated for risks their
       bear.
      Any risks which can be diversified away will not
       be compensated.




66
Diversifying risk: Conclusions
      Investors are only compensated for risks their
       bear.
      Any risks which can be diversified away will not
       be compensated.
      We want to understand how to create portfolios
       which produce the maximum risk diversification.




67
Diversifying risk: Conclusions
      Investors are only compensated for risks their
       bear.
      Any risks which can be diversified away will not
       be compensated.
      We want to understand how to create portfolios
       which produce the maximum risk diversification.
      We call such portfolios, “optimal portfolios”




68
Optimal Portfolios




69
Optimal Portfolios
      A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
      real estate, etc.)




70
Optimal Portfolios
      A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
       real estate, etc.)
      Holding different combinations of assets results in
       different risk and return characteristics.




71
Optimal Portfolios
      A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
       real estate, etc.)
      Holding different combinations of assets results in
       different risk and return characteristics.
      We can construct portfolios with “optimal” levels
       of return for a given level of risk.




72
Optimal Portfolios
      A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds,
       real estate, etc.)
      Holding different combinations of assets results in
       different risk and return characteristics.
      We can construct portfolios with “optimal” levels
       of return for a given level of risk.
      We call such portfolios, “efficient portfolios”




73
Optimal Portfolios




74
Optimal Portfolios




75
Optimal Portfolios
      The curve drawn through all the efficient portfolios
      is known as the “Efficiency Frontier”




76
Optimal Portfolios
      The curve drawn through all the efficient portfolios
       is known as the “Efficiency Frontier”
      We will come back to this later.




77
How does diversification work?




78
How does diversification work?
      Diversification comes when stocks are subject to
      different kinds of events such that their returns
      differ over time, i.e. the stock‟s returns are not
      perfectly correlated. Their price movements often
      counteract each other




79
How does diversification work?
      Diversification comes when stocks are subject to
       different kinds of events such that their returns
       differ over time, i.e. the stock‟s returns are not
       perfectly correlated. Their price movements often
       counteract each other
      By contrast, if two stocks are perfectly positively
       correlated, diversification has no effect on risk.




80
Risk Premium




81
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
      risk an investment is, the higher the return it
      needs to offer.




82
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
       risk an investment is, the higher the return it
       needs to offer.
      We can re-state this concept in the following
       way:




83
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
       risk an investment is, the higher the return it
       needs to offer.
      We can re-state this concept in the following
       way:
        An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
        low return with no risk




84
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
       risk an investment is, the higher the return it
       needs to offer.
      We can re-state this concept in the following
       way:
        An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
         low return with no risk
        Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
         compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:




85
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
       risk an investment is, the higher the return it
       needs to offer.
      We can re-state this concept in the following
       way:
        An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
         low return with no risk
        Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
         compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:

          Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk
        Premium
86
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
       risk an investment is, the higher the return it
       needs to offer.
      We can re-state this concept in the following
       way:
        An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
         low return with no risk
        Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
         compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:

          Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk
        Premium
87
          The risk-free rate equals the real interest rate and expected
Risk Premium
      We have previously said that the higher the
       risk an investment is, the higher the return it
       needs to offer.
      We can re-state this concept in the following
       way:
        An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a
         low return with no risk
        Investors who take on risk expect a higher return
         compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore:

          Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk
        Premium
          The risk-free rate equals the real interest rate and expected
           inflation
88
          Typically considered the return on U.S. government
Risk Premium




89
Risk Premium
      The risk premium is the reward investors require
      for taking risk




90
Risk Premium
      The risk premium is the reward investors require
       for taking risk
      But the market doesn‟t reward all risks




91
Risk Premium
      The risk premium is the reward investors require
       for taking risk
      But the market doesn‟t reward all risks
      Since the firm-specific portion of risk can be
       diversified away, an efficient market will not
       reward investors for taking this risk




92
Risk Premium
      The risk premium is the reward investors require
       for taking risk
      But the market doesn‟t reward all risks
      Since the firm-specific portion of risk can be
       diversified away, an efficient market will not
       reward investors for taking this risk
      The market rewards only the remaining risk after
       the firm-specific risk is diversified away: the
       market risk


93
Risk Premium - Examples




94
Risk Premium - Examples
      Below are historical market-level risk premia over
      different historical time periods:




95
CAPM




96
CAPM
      We can combine our concepts of optimal
      portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
      to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
      characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
      it‟s return)




97
CAPM
      We can combine our concepts of optimal
       portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
       to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
       characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
       it‟s return)
      Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”




98
CAPM
      We can combine our concepts of optimal
       portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
       to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
       characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
       it‟s return)
      Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”
      The most famous asset pricing theory is the
       Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM)




99
CAPM
       We can combine our concepts of optimal
        portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium
        to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk
        characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e.
        it‟s return)
       Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”
       The most famous asset pricing theory is the
        Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM)




100
CAPM




101
CAPM
       We saw how we can construct an efficiency
       frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟




102
CAPM
       We saw how we can construct an efficiency
        frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟
       Each portfolio combines a group of assets in such
        a way that they provide the highest expected
        return for a given level of risk.




103
CAPM
       We saw how we can construct an efficiency
        frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟
       Each portfolio combines a group of assets in such
        a way that they provide the highest expected
        return for a given level of risk.




104
CAPM




105
CAPM
       The horizontal axis in this example starts at 10%
       risk (the standard deviation or volatility)




106
CAPM
       The horizontal axis in this example starts at 10%
        risk (the standard deviation or volatility)
       But we could modify this graph – and our portfolio
        – by including some amount of the risk-free asset.




107
CAPM




108
CAPM




109
CAPM
       The top graph is
       simply the Efficiency
       frontier from the prior
       slide.




110
CAPM
       The top graph is
        simply the Efficiency
        frontier from the prior
        slide.
       The bottom graph
        now includes the risk-
        free asset and the
        efficiency frontier.




111
CAPM
       The top graph is
        simply the Efficiency
        frontier from the prior
        slide.
       The bottom graph
        now includes the risk-
        free asset and the
        efficiency frontier.
       We can imagine a line
        being drawn that
        starts at the risk-free
        asset and running
        tangent to the
112     efficiency frontier
CAPM
       The top graph is simply
        the Efficiency frontier
        from the prior slide.
       The bottom graph now
        includes the risk-free
        asset and the efficiency
        frontier.
       We can imagine a line
        being drawn that starts
        at the risk-free asset
        and running tangent to
        the efficiency frontier
       Such a line is known as
        the Capital Market Line
        (CML).
113
CAPM




114
CAPM




115
CAPM
       By using holding some
        combination of the risk-free
        asset and an optimal portfolio
        we can maximize our
        expected return.




116
CAPM
       By using holding some
        combination of the risk-free
        asset and an optimal portfolio
        we can maximize our
        expected return.
       Such returns reside on the
        Capital Market Line.




117
CAPM
       By using holding some
        combination of the risk-free
        asset and an optimal portfolio
        we can maximize our
        expected return.
       Such returns reside on the
        Capital Market Line.
       The CML demonstrates that
        an investor will hold the
        market portfolio. Since such
        an investor will be fully
        diversified, the only relevant
        risk is market risk.

118
CAPM




119
CAPM
       Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
        desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
        only market risk




120
CAPM
       Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
        desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
        only market risk
       Such as measure is called beta (β):




121
CAPM
       Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
        desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
        only market risk
       Such as measure is called beta (β):


        Required Return = Rf + β(Risk PremuimMarket)




122
CAPM
       Since the investor has only market risk, it would be
        desirable to have a measure of risk that measured
        only market risk
       Such as measure is called beta (β):


        Required Return = Rf + β(Risk PremuimMarket)

        Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)




123
CAPM




124
CAPM
       Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
       and the market portfolio




125
CAPM
       Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
        and the market portfolio
       The beta of the overall market is 1




126
CAPM
       Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
        and the market portfolio
       The beta of the overall market is 1
       Stocks with betas greater than 1 are considered
        riskier than the market portfolio and are called
        aggressive stocks




127
CAPM
       Beta measures the co-movement between a stock
        and the market portfolio
       The beta of the overall market is 1
       Stocks with betas greater than 1 are considered
        riskier than the market portfolio and are called
        aggressive stocks
       Stocks with betas less than 1 are less risky than the
        market portfolio and are called defensive stocks




128
CAPM




129
CAPM




130
CAPM
       The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
       required return once we have determined the stock‟s
       beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.




131
CAPM
       The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
        required return once we have determined the stock‟s
        beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
       CAPM Equation is:
             Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)




132
CAPM
       The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
        required return once we have determined the stock‟s
        beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
       CAPM Equation is:
             Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)

       Example:




133
CAPM
       The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
        required return once we have determined the stock‟s
        beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
       CAPM Equation is:
             Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)

       Example:
         Let‟s say we expect the market portfolio to earn 12%,
         and T-bill yields are 5%. Home Depot has a beta of
         1.08. Calculate Home Depot‟s required return




134
CAPM
       The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s
        required return once we have determined the stock‟s
        beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.
       CAPM Equation is:
             Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)

       Example:
         Let‟s say we expect the market portfolio to earn 12%,
         and T-bill yields are 5%. Home Depot has a beta of
         1.08. Calculate Home Depot‟s required return

         Required Return = 5% + 1.08(12% - 5%) = 12.56%


135
CAPM




136
CAPM
       Finding Beta




137
CAPM
       Finding Beta
         The easiest way to find betas is to look them up.
         Many companies provide betas:




138
CAPM
       Finding Beta
         The easiest way to find betas is to look them up.
         Many companies provide betas:
           Value Line Investment Survey
           Hoovers
           MSN Money
           Yahoo! Finance
           Zacks




139
CAPM
       Finding Beta
         The easiest way to find betas is to look them up.
         Many companies provide betas:
           Value Line Investment Survey
           Hoovers
           MSN Money
           Yahoo! Finance
           Zacks
         You can also calculate beta for yourself




140
Caveats




141
Caveats
       Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
       depending on how it is calculated




142
Caveats
       Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
        depending on how it is calculated
       The “risk / return” relationship rests on the
        assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced
        “correctly”




143
Caveats
       Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
        depending on how it is calculated
       The “risk / return” relationship rests on the
        assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced
        “correctly”
       This in turn, requires that asset markets price
        assets correctly




144
Caveats
       Measures of betas for a given asset can vary
        depending on how it is calculated
       The “risk / return” relationship rests on the
        assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced
        “correctly”
       This in turn, requires that asset markets price
        assets correctly
       Given historical events and other evidence, there
        are reasons to question how “efficient” markets
        are at pricing an asset at its true price

145
Summary




146
Summary
       We need the expectation of extra reward for
       taking on more risk




147
Summary
       We need the expectation of extra reward for
        taking on more risk
       An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
        compensation required above the risk-free rate
        for holding that asset




148
Summary
       We need the expectation of extra reward for
        taking on more risk
       An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
        compensation required above the risk-free rate
        for holding that asset
       At the market level, the market risk premium is
        the additional return above the risk-free rate to
        hold the market portfolio




149
Summary
       We need the expectation of extra reward for
        taking on more risk
       An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
        compensation required above the risk-free rate
        for holding that asset
       At the market level, the market risk premium is
        the additional return above the risk-free rate to
        hold the market portfolio
       For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much
       return we will require for holding that asset relative to
       the risk free rate and market portfolio
150
Summary
       We need the expectation of extra reward for
        taking on more risk
       An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
        compensation required above the risk-free rate
        for holding that asset
       At the market level, the market risk premium is
        the additional return above the risk-free rate to
        hold the market portfolio
       For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much
       return we will require for holding that asset relative to
       the risk free rate and market portfolio
         Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)
151
Summary
       We need the expectation of extra reward for
        taking on more risk
       An asset‟s risk premium is the additional
        compensation required above the risk-free rate
        for holding that asset
       At the market level, the market risk premium is
        the additional return above the risk-free rate to
        hold the market portfolio
       For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much
       return we will require for holding that asset relative to
       the risk free rate and market portfolio
         Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)

152

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Finance lecture risk and return

  • 1. Finance Lecture: Risk, Return and the Cost of Equity Brad Simon
  • 2. Lecture Overview  Risk and Return  Measuring Returns  Volatility  Portfolios  Diversification  Risk Premium  CAPM  Summary 2
  • 3. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return 3
  • 4. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return  The relationship between risk and return is fundamental to finance theory 4
  • 5. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return  The relationship between risk and return is fundamental to finance theory  You can invest very safely in a bank or in Treasury bills. Why would you invest in risky stocks and bonds? 5
  • 6. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return  The relationship between risk and return is fundamental to finance theory  You can invest very safely in a bank or in Treasury bills. Why would you invest in risky stocks and bonds? If you want the chance of earning higher returns, it requires that you take on higher risk investments 6
  • 7. Motivating the topic: Risk and Return  The relationship between risk and return is fundamental to finance theory  You can invest very safely in a bank or in Treasury bills. Why would you invest in risky stocks and bonds? If you want the chance of earning higher returns, it requires that you take on higher risk investments  There is a positive relationship between risk and return 7
  • 9. Historical Returns Ending Price - Beginning Price Dividend Percentage Return Beginning Price Beginning Price 9
  • 10. Historical Returns Ending Price - Beginning Price Dividend Percentage Return Beginning Price Beginning Price Percentage Return Capital Gains Yield Dividend Yield 10
  • 11. Historical Returns Ending Price -Beginning Price Dividend Percentage Return Beginning Price Beginning Price Percentage Return Capital Gains Yield Dividend Yield  Example: You held 250 shares of Hilton Hotel‟s common stock. The company‟s share price was $24.11 at the beginning of the year. During the year, the company paid a dividend of $0.16 per share, and ended the year at a price of $34.90. What is the dollar return, the percentage return, the capital gains yield, and the dividend yield for Hilton? 11
  • 13. Historical Returns  Percent return = Capital gains yield + Dividend Yield 13
  • 14. Historical Returns  Percent return = Capital gains yield + Dividend Yield Capital gains yield = ($34.90 - $24.11)/$24.11 = 44.75% 14
  • 15. Historical Returns  Percent return = Capital gains yield + Dividend Yield Capital gains yield = ($34.90 - $24.11)/$24.11 = 44.75% Dividend yield = $0.16/$24.11 = 0.66% 15
  • 16. Historical Returns  Percent return = Capital gains yield + Dividend Yield Capital gains yield = ($34.90 - $24.11)/$24.11 = 44.75% Dividend yield = $0.16/$24.11 = 0.66% Percent return = 44.75% + 0.66% = 45.42% 16
  • 18. Volatility  High volatility in historical returns are an indication that future returns will be volatile 18
  • 19. Volatility  High volatility in historical returns are an indication that future returns will be volatile  One popular way of quantifying volatility is to compute the standard deviation of percentage returns 19
  • 20. Volatility  High volatility in historical returns are an indication that future returns will be volatile  One popular way of quantifying volatility is to compute the standard deviation of percentage returns Standard deviation is a measure of total risk 20
  • 21. Volatility  High volatility in historical returns are an indication that future returns will be volatile  One popular way of quantifying volatility is to compute the standard deviation of percentage returns Standard deviation is a measure of total risk A large standard deviation indicates greater return variability, or high risk 21
  • 22. Volatility  High volatility in historical returns are an indication that future returns will be volatile  One popular way of quantifying volatility is to compute the standard deviation of percentage returns Standard deviation is a measure of total risk A large standard deviation indicates greater return variability, or high risk N 2 (Return t - Average Return) t 1 Standard Deviation N -1 22
  • 24. Volatility - Example  Example:  Using the following returns, calculate the average return, the variance, and the standard deviation for Acme stock. 24
  • 25. Volatility - Example  Example:  Using the following returns, calculate the average return, the variance, and the standard deviation for Acme stock. Year Acme 1 10% 2 4 3 -8 4 13 5 5 25
  • 26. Volatility - Example Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 = 4.80% 26
  • 27. Volatility - Example Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 = 4.80% σ2Acme = [(10 – 4.8)2 + (4 – 4.8)2 (- 8 – 4.8)2 + (13 – 4.8)2 + (5 – 4.8)2 ] / (5 - 1) 27
  • 28. Volatility - Example Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 = 4.80% σ2Acme = [(10 – 4.8)2 + (4 – 4.8)2 (- 8 – 4.8)2 + (13 – 4.8)2 + (5 – 4.8)2 ] / (5 - 1) σ2Acme = 258.8 / 4 = 64.70 28
  • 29. Volatility - Example Average Return = (10 + 4 - 8 + 13 + 5 ) / 5 = 4.80% σ2Acme = [(10 – 4.8)2 + (4 – 4.8)2 (- 8 – 4.8)2 + (13 – 4.8)2 + (5 – 4.8)2 ] / (5 - 1) σ2Acme = 258.8 / 4 = 64.70 σAcme = (64.70)1/2 = 8.04% 29
  • 32. Volatility - Application  The volatility of stocks is much higher than the volatility of bonds and T-bills 32
  • 33. Volatility - Application  The volatility of stocks is much higher than the volatility of bonds and T-bills  Different periods had differing levels of volatility for the same asset class 33
  • 35. Diversifying risk: Portfolios  In the beginning of the lecture we saw that higher risks must come with (the potential for) higher returns. 35
  • 36. Diversifying risk: Portfolios  In the beginning of the lecture we saw that higher risks must come with (the potential for) higher returns.  More volatile stocks should have, on average, higher returns. 36
  • 37. Diversifying risk: Portfolios  In the beginning of the lecture we saw that higher risks must come with (the potential for) higher returns.  More volatile stocks should have, on average, higher returns.  We can reduce volatility for a given level of return by grouping assets into portfolios 37
  • 38. Diversifying risk: Portfolios  In the beginning of the lecture we saw that higher risks must come with (the potential for) higher returns.  More volatile stocks should have, on average, higher returns.  We can reduce volatility for a given level of return by grouping assets into portfolios  This is known as “diversifying risk” 38
  • 40. Diversifying risk: Example  In a given year a particular pharmaceutical company may fail in getting approval of a new drug, thus causing its stock price to drop. 40
  • 41. Diversifying risk: Example  In a given year a particular pharmaceutical company may fail in getting approval of a new drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.  But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical company will fail major drug trials in the same year. 41
  • 42. Diversifying risk: Example  In a given year a particular pharmaceutical company may fail in getting approval of a new drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.  But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical company will fail major drug trials in the same year.  On average, some are likely to be successful while others will fail. 42
  • 43. Diversifying risk: Example  In a given year a particular pharmaceutical company may fail in getting approval of a new drug, thus causing its stock price to drop.  But it is unlikely that every pharmaceutical company will fail major drug trials in the same year.  On average, some are likely to be successful while others will fail.  Therefore, the returns for a portfolio comprised of all drug companies will have much less volatility than that of a single drug company. 43
  • 44. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d) 44
  • 45. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  By holding stock in the entire sector of pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of risk as just described. 45
  • 46. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  By holding stock in the entire sector of pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of risk as just described.  But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may impact all drug companies. 46
  • 47. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  By holding stock in the entire sector of pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of risk as just described.  But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may impact all drug companies.  For example, if the FDA changes its drug- approval policy and requires all new drugs to go through more strict testing we would expect the entire sector – and our portfolio comprised of all pharmaceutical companies – to suffer. 47
  • 48. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  By holding stock in the entire sector of pharmaceuticals we have eliminated quite a bit of risk as just described.  But it‟s possible there is sector-level risk that may impact all drug companies.  For example, if the FDA changes its drug- approval policy and requires all new drugs to go through more strict testing we would expect the entire sector – and our portfolio comprised of all pharmaceutical companies – to suffer.  But what if we held a portfolio of not just pharmaceuticals but also of computer companies, 48 manufacturing companies, service companies
  • 49. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d) 49
  • 50. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  We would expect this expanded portfolio to be even less risky than a portfolio comprised of just one sector. 50
  • 51. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  We would expect this expanded portfolio to be even less risky than a portfolio comprised of just one sector.  In fact, we can imagine a market-level portfolio comprised of all assets. 51
  • 52. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  We would expect this expanded portfolio to be even less risky than a portfolio comprised of just one sector.  In fact, we can imagine a market-level portfolio comprised of all assets.  Such a market portfolio would still have uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly reduced compared to just one asset or even a group of related assets 52
  • 53. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  We would expect this expanded portfolio to be even less risky than a portfolio comprised of just one sector.  In fact, we can imagine a market-level portfolio comprised of all assets.  Such a market portfolio would still have uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly reduced compared to just one asset or even a group of related assets  We can then think of risk as having two 53 components:
  • 54. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  We would expect this expanded portfolio to be even less risky than a portfolio comprised of just one sector.  In fact, we can imagine a market-level portfolio comprised of all assets.  Such a market portfolio would still have uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly reduced compared to just one asset or even a group of related assets  We can then think of risk as having two 54 components:  Firm-specific risk (or asset-specific risk)
  • 55. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  We would expect this expanded portfolio to be even less risky than a portfolio comprised of just one sector.  In fact, we can imagine a market-level portfolio comprised of all assets.  Such a market portfolio would still have uncertainty and risk but it would be greatly reduced compared to just one asset or even a group of related assets  We can then think of risk as having two 55 components:  Firm-specific risk (or asset-specific risk)
  • 56. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d) 56
  • 57. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  Firm-specific risk can be diversified away 57
  • 58. Diversifying risk: Example (cont‟d)  Firm-specific risk can be diversified away  Market-level risk cannot be eliminated 58
  • 60. Diversifying risk: Naming  Firm-specific risk is also called:  Asset-specific risk  Diversifiable risk  Idiosyncratic risk  Unsystematic risk 60
  • 61. Diversifying risk: Naming  Firm-specific risk is also called:  Asset-specific risk  Diversifiable risk  Idiosyncratic risk  Unsystematic risk  Market-level risk is also called:  Systematic Risk  Market risk  Non-diversifiable risk 61
  • 65. Diversifying risk: Conclusions  Investors are only compensated for risks their bear. 65
  • 66. Diversifying risk: Conclusions  Investors are only compensated for risks their bear.  Any risks which can be diversified away will not be compensated. 66
  • 67. Diversifying risk: Conclusions  Investors are only compensated for risks their bear.  Any risks which can be diversified away will not be compensated.  We want to understand how to create portfolios which produce the maximum risk diversification. 67
  • 68. Diversifying risk: Conclusions  Investors are only compensated for risks their bear.  Any risks which can be diversified away will not be compensated.  We want to understand how to create portfolios which produce the maximum risk diversification.  We call such portfolios, “optimal portfolios” 68
  • 70. Optimal Portfolios  A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) 70
  • 71. Optimal Portfolios  A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)  Holding different combinations of assets results in different risk and return characteristics. 71
  • 72. Optimal Portfolios  A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)  Holding different combinations of assets results in different risk and return characteristics.  We can construct portfolios with “optimal” levels of return for a given level of risk. 72
  • 73. Optimal Portfolios  A portfolio is a collection of assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)  Holding different combinations of assets results in different risk and return characteristics.  We can construct portfolios with “optimal” levels of return for a given level of risk.  We call such portfolios, “efficient portfolios” 73
  • 76. Optimal Portfolios  The curve drawn through all the efficient portfolios is known as the “Efficiency Frontier” 76
  • 77. Optimal Portfolios  The curve drawn through all the efficient portfolios is known as the “Efficiency Frontier”  We will come back to this later. 77
  • 79. How does diversification work?  Diversification comes when stocks are subject to different kinds of events such that their returns differ over time, i.e. the stock‟s returns are not perfectly correlated. Their price movements often counteract each other 79
  • 80. How does diversification work?  Diversification comes when stocks are subject to different kinds of events such that their returns differ over time, i.e. the stock‟s returns are not perfectly correlated. Their price movements often counteract each other  By contrast, if two stocks are perfectly positively correlated, diversification has no effect on risk. 80
  • 82. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer. 82
  • 83. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer.  We can re-state this concept in the following way: 83
  • 84. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer.  We can re-state this concept in the following way:  An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a low return with no risk 84
  • 85. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer.  We can re-state this concept in the following way:  An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a low return with no risk  Investors who take on risk expect a higher return compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore: 85
  • 86. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer.  We can re-state this concept in the following way:  An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a low return with no risk  Investors who take on risk expect a higher return compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore: Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk Premium 86
  • 87. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer.  We can re-state this concept in the following way:  An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a low return with no risk  Investors who take on risk expect a higher return compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore: Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk Premium 87  The risk-free rate equals the real interest rate and expected
  • 88. Risk Premium  We have previously said that the higher the risk an investment is, the higher the return it needs to offer.  We can re-state this concept in the following way:  An investment in a risk-free US Treasury bill offers a low return with no risk  Investors who take on risk expect a higher return compared to this risk-free opportunity, therefore: Required Return = Risk-free Rate + Risk Premium  The risk-free rate equals the real interest rate and expected inflation 88  Typically considered the return on U.S. government
  • 90. Risk Premium  The risk premium is the reward investors require for taking risk 90
  • 91. Risk Premium  The risk premium is the reward investors require for taking risk  But the market doesn‟t reward all risks 91
  • 92. Risk Premium  The risk premium is the reward investors require for taking risk  But the market doesn‟t reward all risks  Since the firm-specific portion of risk can be diversified away, an efficient market will not reward investors for taking this risk 92
  • 93. Risk Premium  The risk premium is the reward investors require for taking risk  But the market doesn‟t reward all risks  Since the firm-specific portion of risk can be diversified away, an efficient market will not reward investors for taking this risk  The market rewards only the remaining risk after the firm-specific risk is diversified away: the market risk 93
  • 94. Risk Premium - Examples 94
  • 95. Risk Premium - Examples  Below are historical market-level risk premia over different historical time periods: 95
  • 97. CAPM  We can combine our concepts of optimal portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e. it‟s return) 97
  • 98. CAPM  We can combine our concepts of optimal portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e. it‟s return)  Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory” 98
  • 99. CAPM  We can combine our concepts of optimal portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e. it‟s return)  Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”  The most famous asset pricing theory is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM) 99
  • 100. CAPM  We can combine our concepts of optimal portfolios, the efficiency frontier and risk premium to create a theory seeking to relate an asset‟s risk characteristics to its required risk premium (i.e. it‟s return)  Such a theory is called an “asset pricing theory”  The most famous asset pricing theory is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (or CAPM) 100
  • 102. CAPM  We saw how we can construct an efficiency frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟ 102
  • 103. CAPM  We saw how we can construct an efficiency frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟  Each portfolio combines a group of assets in such a way that they provide the highest expected return for a given level of risk. 103
  • 104. CAPM  We saw how we can construct an efficiency frontier comprised of „efficient portfolios.‟  Each portfolio combines a group of assets in such a way that they provide the highest expected return for a given level of risk. 104
  • 106. CAPM  The horizontal axis in this example starts at 10% risk (the standard deviation or volatility) 106
  • 107. CAPM  The horizontal axis in this example starts at 10% risk (the standard deviation or volatility)  But we could modify this graph – and our portfolio – by including some amount of the risk-free asset. 107
  • 110. CAPM  The top graph is simply the Efficiency frontier from the prior slide. 110
  • 111. CAPM  The top graph is simply the Efficiency frontier from the prior slide.  The bottom graph now includes the risk- free asset and the efficiency frontier. 111
  • 112. CAPM  The top graph is simply the Efficiency frontier from the prior slide.  The bottom graph now includes the risk- free asset and the efficiency frontier.  We can imagine a line being drawn that starts at the risk-free asset and running tangent to the 112 efficiency frontier
  • 113. CAPM  The top graph is simply the Efficiency frontier from the prior slide.  The bottom graph now includes the risk-free asset and the efficiency frontier.  We can imagine a line being drawn that starts at the risk-free asset and running tangent to the efficiency frontier  Such a line is known as the Capital Market Line (CML). 113
  • 116. CAPM  By using holding some combination of the risk-free asset and an optimal portfolio we can maximize our expected return. 116
  • 117. CAPM  By using holding some combination of the risk-free asset and an optimal portfolio we can maximize our expected return.  Such returns reside on the Capital Market Line. 117
  • 118. CAPM  By using holding some combination of the risk-free asset and an optimal portfolio we can maximize our expected return.  Such returns reside on the Capital Market Line.  The CML demonstrates that an investor will hold the market portfolio. Since such an investor will be fully diversified, the only relevant risk is market risk. 118
  • 120. CAPM  Since the investor has only market risk, it would be desirable to have a measure of risk that measured only market risk 120
  • 121. CAPM  Since the investor has only market risk, it would be desirable to have a measure of risk that measured only market risk  Such as measure is called beta (β): 121
  • 122. CAPM  Since the investor has only market risk, it would be desirable to have a measure of risk that measured only market risk  Such as measure is called beta (β): Required Return = Rf + β(Risk PremuimMarket) 122
  • 123. CAPM  Since the investor has only market risk, it would be desirable to have a measure of risk that measured only market risk  Such as measure is called beta (β): Required Return = Rf + β(Risk PremuimMarket) Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf) 123
  • 125. CAPM  Beta measures the co-movement between a stock and the market portfolio 125
  • 126. CAPM  Beta measures the co-movement between a stock and the market portfolio  The beta of the overall market is 1 126
  • 127. CAPM  Beta measures the co-movement between a stock and the market portfolio  The beta of the overall market is 1  Stocks with betas greater than 1 are considered riskier than the market portfolio and are called aggressive stocks 127
  • 128. CAPM  Beta measures the co-movement between a stock and the market portfolio  The beta of the overall market is 1  Stocks with betas greater than 1 are considered riskier than the market portfolio and are called aggressive stocks  Stocks with betas less than 1 are less risky than the market portfolio and are called defensive stocks 128
  • 131. CAPM  The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s required return once we have determined the stock‟s beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium. 131
  • 132. CAPM  The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s required return once we have determined the stock‟s beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.  CAPM Equation is: Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf) 132
  • 133. CAPM  The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s required return once we have determined the stock‟s beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.  CAPM Equation is: Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)  Example: 133
  • 134. CAPM  The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s required return once we have determined the stock‟s beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.  CAPM Equation is: Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)  Example:  Let‟s say we expect the market portfolio to earn 12%, and T-bill yields are 5%. Home Depot has a beta of 1.08. Calculate Home Depot‟s required return 134
  • 135. CAPM  The CAPM equation allows us to estimate any stock‟s required return once we have determined the stock‟s beta, risk-free rate and market-risk premium.  CAPM Equation is: Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf)  Example:  Let‟s say we expect the market portfolio to earn 12%, and T-bill yields are 5%. Home Depot has a beta of 1.08. Calculate Home Depot‟s required return  Required Return = 5% + 1.08(12% - 5%) = 12.56% 135
  • 137. CAPM  Finding Beta 137
  • 138. CAPM  Finding Beta  The easiest way to find betas is to look them up. Many companies provide betas: 138
  • 139. CAPM  Finding Beta  The easiest way to find betas is to look them up. Many companies provide betas:  Value Line Investment Survey  Hoovers  MSN Money  Yahoo! Finance  Zacks 139
  • 140. CAPM  Finding Beta  The easiest way to find betas is to look them up. Many companies provide betas:  Value Line Investment Survey  Hoovers  MSN Money  Yahoo! Finance  Zacks  You can also calculate beta for yourself 140
  • 142. Caveats  Measures of betas for a given asset can vary depending on how it is calculated 142
  • 143. Caveats  Measures of betas for a given asset can vary depending on how it is calculated  The “risk / return” relationship rests on the assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced “correctly” 143
  • 144. Caveats  Measures of betas for a given asset can vary depending on how it is calculated  The “risk / return” relationship rests on the assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced “correctly”  This in turn, requires that asset markets price assets correctly 144
  • 145. Caveats  Measures of betas for a given asset can vary depending on how it is calculated  The “risk / return” relationship rests on the assumption that the stock (or asset) is priced “correctly”  This in turn, requires that asset markets price assets correctly  Given historical events and other evidence, there are reasons to question how “efficient” markets are at pricing an asset at its true price 145
  • 147. Summary  We need the expectation of extra reward for taking on more risk 147
  • 148. Summary  We need the expectation of extra reward for taking on more risk  An asset‟s risk premium is the additional compensation required above the risk-free rate for holding that asset 148
  • 149. Summary  We need the expectation of extra reward for taking on more risk  An asset‟s risk premium is the additional compensation required above the risk-free rate for holding that asset  At the market level, the market risk premium is the additional return above the risk-free rate to hold the market portfolio 149
  • 150. Summary  We need the expectation of extra reward for taking on more risk  An asset‟s risk premium is the additional compensation required above the risk-free rate for holding that asset  At the market level, the market risk premium is the additional return above the risk-free rate to hold the market portfolio  For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much return we will require for holding that asset relative to the risk free rate and market portfolio 150
  • 151. Summary  We need the expectation of extra reward for taking on more risk  An asset‟s risk premium is the additional compensation required above the risk-free rate for holding that asset  At the market level, the market risk premium is the additional return above the risk-free rate to hold the market portfolio  For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much return we will require for holding that asset relative to the risk free rate and market portfolio  Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf) 151
  • 152. Summary  We need the expectation of extra reward for taking on more risk  An asset‟s risk premium is the additional compensation required above the risk-free rate for holding that asset  At the market level, the market risk premium is the additional return above the risk-free rate to hold the market portfolio  For a given asset, the CAPM will tell us how much return we will require for holding that asset relative to the risk free rate and market portfolio  Required Return = Rf + β(RM – Rf) 152