Five big questions - Chris Sounness
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Five big questions - Chris Sounness
- 1. Five Big Questions Chris Sounness DPI Farm Services Victoria Thanks to Graeme Anderson, Danielle Park, Lucy Stott and Carl Sudholz
- 5. The farmers challenge – export priced produced base year: 1977-78 = 100
- 6. Farm establishments by $ scale Victoria 2006
- 7. Farm establishments, area and value by $ scale Victoria 2006
- 8. Family income broadacre farms from farm and non-farm sources $25k-$100k EVAO: 1990-2007 Source: ABARE ٥ Unlikely to be generating sufficient income to invest, build risk reserves or support family without off-farm income. ٥ Family income sustained by off-farm income.
- 9. Family income broadacre farms from farm and non-farm sources $100k-$200k EVAO: 1990-2007 Source: ABARE ٥ Farm income makes a significant contribution to family income. ٥ Non-farm income is a significant secondary income source.
- 10. Family income broadacre farms from farm and non-farm sources $200k-$400k EVAO: 1990-2007 Source: ABARE ٥ In ‘normal’ seasons these farms have generated a healthy farm family income with only limited supplementation from off-farm sources. ٥ The current run of dry seasons has cut severely into this income.
- 11. Family income broadacre farms from farm and non-farm sources $400k+ EVAO: 1990-2007 Source: ABARE ٥ Generate a volatile, but sustained high cash surplus. ٥ Impact of dry seasons is there, but less severe than in other segments. ٥ Suggests there is the capacity of many of these businesses to adapt to changing climate. ٥ Income is variable, but capacity exists to build resilience to cope with income variation.
- 12. Farming for some is very profitable with acceptable risk levels
- 26. Subscribe by email - Month by month seasonal updates [email_address]
Notas del editor
- Farm scale makes a difference. An ideological difference. Here is a distribution of farms in Victoria according to financial scale. EVAO.. Value ofproduction (not profit). Lost of small farms. If you are interested in the adaptation of people, you are interested in the small farms.
- Here is the total share of value of production for each group. The smallest half produce 10% The largest 11% produce over 50% of the value. If you are interested in adaptation to maintain production, you are interested in the small number of large farms.
- Smallest farms. <100k Dark is cash surplus Light area is off farm income. Diversification strategy.
- Hard to see a capacity to build reserves here. Diversification is minimal.
- Borderline here. Some capable of reserve building. General rule of thumb seems to be that the benchmark for a sustained farming business for a family is near $300,000. Two thirds of the farms in this graph are below that benchmark.
- And the large farms. Summary. Large numbers of farm businesses can’t be reasonably expected to have the capacity to build resilience to the probable larger and more regular shocks implied by climate change. Adaptation might mean something much more difficult than a modicum of productivity increase on every farm. It might mean more farmers take off farm work. It might mean that government provides more regular financial assistance in times of drought. I’ll talk about a few regions and what I see as the implications of climate change projections.
- DPI The Break Newsletter Has state monthly roundup plus key info from various seasonal outlook sites. Can be emailed to farmers each month. Has latest updates and links to new climate tools and sites.
- What’s included in the monthly “Fast Break” Also has comparisons with all climate models as to what they are saying