.

1. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on CIS, 2021.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
221,932
362,007
796,125
Mortgages Consumer loans Sector credits
19.9
2.7
31.5
Applications
admitted
Outstanding balance
pending amortization
Industrial production, Spain
In 2020, after six consecutive years of
growth, the industrial production index
(IPI) recorded an average yearly decrease of
9.1%. This is the biggest fall since 2009 when
production slumped 16.2% at the height of
the financial crisis. The reduction, which
was especially intense between March and
June, is a partial reflection of the decrease in
worldwide trade flows caused by the
Covid-19 crisis.
By sectors, all registered negative rates,
although varying in intensity. Capital goods
and consumer durables reached yearly rates
of -15.4% and -13.5% respectively.
The contraction was less intense for
intermediate goods (-7.8 yearly), consumer
durables (-6.5%) and energy (-6.2%).
Credit moratorium, Bank of Spain
At the end of January 2021, the Bank of Spain
had granted 1.38 million legislative
moratorium (for those affected by the
Covid-19 crisis) for mortgage, consumer and
sector credit loans to an amount that
exceeded €54.1billion (0.5% of GDP).
Of the total, around 16% (221,932) were
legislative mortgage moratorium, with an
accumulated outstanding balance of €19.9
billion (36.9% of the total).
For its part, the legislative consumer loan
moratorium represented more than 26.2% of
total moratorium, with 362,007 grants and
an outstanding balance of €2.7 billion (4.9%
of the total).
And the sector moratorium totaled more
than 796,000 grants (57.7% of the total
moratoria), with an outstanding balance of
€31.5 billion, representing 58.7% of the total.
Consumer confidence, Spain
In January 2021, the Consumer Confidence
Index (CCI) decreased to 55.7 points, 7.4
points lower than in December 2020. This
decline can mostly be explained as a result of
the impact of the third wave of Covid-19 cases
on economic activity and the job market.
Agents’ expectations index fell 13.4 points to
78.6, and appraisal of the current situation
fell 1.4 points to 32.9.
Consumer confidence has remained at levels
similar to those of 2012 and 2013, one of the
periods with the worst results since
reporting began.
Economy…
at a glance February 2021
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2021.
Credit moratorium
N. and billion of €
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2021.
Industrial production index, Spain
YoY change (%)
ICC, Spain
Points

2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the
Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de
Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Trade balance Exports Imports
12
13
14
15
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
x
10000
Unemployment rate
Jobs (right axis)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Brent
WTI
Tradebalance, Germany
In December 2020, Germany’s foreign
trade came to a standstill. The
seasonally- and working-day-adjusted
figures show a slight monthly increase in
exports of 0.1% and a decrease in imports
of 0.1%.
In cumulative terms, in 2020, goods
exports fell 9.3% yearly, representing €1.2
trillion (36% of its GDP), while imports
fell 7.1% to €1.02 trillion (30.6% of GDP).
Employment, the US
In January 2021, non-farm payrolls in the
US increased 49,000 after the loss of
227,000 jobs in December 2020,
according to a recent report by the
Department of Labor.
Of the total created, 43,000 of the new
jobs are in the public sector, coinciding
with President Joe Biden’s inauguration.
Only 6,000 jobs were created in the
private sector.
By sectors, 97,000 jobs were created in the
professional and business services sector.
On the other hand, 37,800 jobs were lost
in the retail trade sector, and 27,800 in
goods transportation and warehousing,
mainly as a result of the restrictions on
activity imposed to mitigate any impact
on the health sector as a result of the
pandemic.
The rate of unemployment fell from 6.7%
in December to 6.3% as a result of the
significant increase in both the number of
people employed and the number no
longer forming part of the workforce.
Oil, Brent crude
In January 2021, the price of a barrel of
Brent crude increased 16%, exceeding $60
for the first time since January 2020. For
its part, West Texas crude also rose 18.5%
and was above $57. The slowdown in the
increase of Covid-19 cases over the past
few days, the increased scope of the
vaccination program and expectations
regarding the new fiscal stimulus package
in the US driven forward by Joe Biden
generated an improvement in agents’
expectations.
However, significant risks remain in the
short term associated with the evolution
in demand for crude oil or uncertainty
regarding development of the
epidemiological situation and the
appearance of new waves of the virus.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based onBureau of Labor Statistics, 2021.
Oil price
$ per barrel
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, 2021.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Destatis, 2021.
Employment evolution, US
% active population and million of jobs
Goods trade evolution, Germany
Billion of €