3. Can you keep your head while those
around you are losing theirs?
Rational thought and effective problem solving
is compromised when we seek mental short cuts.
4. Mental short cuts are called heuristics.
There are several types of mental
short cuts used to save time when
drawing conclusions about large
amounts of information, including
availability heuristics,
confirmation bias, and anchoring.
9. How many times have you made a mental decision about
something on the basis of limited information . You see a
post on the internet and hear a few friends mention the
issue. Perhaps you see a news story discussing the issue.
Someone asks your opinion of the issue. You publicly
proclaim your opinion based only on available
information. Time passes and you do not encounter any
new information on the topic.
10. Your opinion of the issue solidifies over a couple of
months. You have formed an opinion based on very
limited information. Since you have discussed it
with others and publicly mentioned your point of
view on the topic, you have become less likely to
accept contradictory information.
11. How might the internet lead to logical fallacies such as
mental short cuts like “availability heuristics”?
12. Study the graph below. Why do you think so many people
have different perceptions of whether or not the rate of
crime is going up or down? How might the availability
heuristic have an impact on people’s perceptions?
13. I know at least three or four people that went to a psychic
and got advice that had a very positive impact on their
lives. I’m going save my money and visit a psychic next
week. Explain how the availability heuristic works.
14.
15. Why do you think
that more people
fear terrorist
attacks than
drivers who text?
16. Sometimes we don’t have time to arrive at a
conclusion supported by clear evidence. We assume
that we have enough information to support our
belief. See if you can answer the following questions
correctly.
17. Read and Discuss
My grandfather and two other relatives were
smokers, and they lived into their nineties.
Apparently, smoking doesn’t seem to affect
how long people live.
What’s wrong with this type of logic?
18. Read and Discuss
•There have been many terrorist attacks
this year in various parts of the world
reported on news outlets. Therefore, we
should be more afraid of dying at the hands
of terrorists than dying in traffic accidents
caused by texting.
• Do you agree with this statement?
• What type of mental short cut do some people
use to jump to the incorrect conclusion?
19. Read and Discuss
I know at least a dozen friends and
relatives that engage in vaping. Amazingly,
I believe there are more people using e-
cigarettes than there are cigarette
smokers.
How would you evaluate this conclusion?
20. Raise your hand as this question is asked about
each disease.
Do you think that more people in
the United States die of heart
disease or cancer each year?
21. Why do you think that most people
probably get this answer wrong?
22. Do you think that the Ebola virus or the influenza virus
caused more deaths in the United States during the last
four years?
Raise your hand to signify which
virus you believe was more deadly.
23. last question?
Why were you tempted to believe that
Ebola was more deadly in the U. S. than
the flu?
24. Fear that is widely spread by the news media can
cause us to miscalculate real events
25. Are some events more likely to be
covered in the news than other events?
Why?
26. Raise your hand if you think …
Coconuts kill more
people each year than
sharks.
27. We hear a lot about shark attacks. How
often do we hear about killer coconuts?
28. Raise your hand if you believe…
More people die each
year from lung cancer
than traffic accidents.
29. Why do you think that some people are fairly certain
that traffic accidents caused more deaths?
30. The Availability Heuristic refers to a
common mistake that our brains make
by assuming that the examples which
come to mind easily are also the most
important or prevalent things.
Are you more afraid of terrorist attacks
or dying from horrible diseases?
Which of these types of events kill more
people every year in the United States?
31. Are the world’s people becoming
more or less violent?
Raise your hand if you think
that the world is becoming a
more violent place?
32. The answer is that we are not only living in the
most peaceful time in history, but also an era
where most events are reported instantly.
Information on any disaster or crime is more widely
available than ever before. A quick search on the
Internet will pull up more information about the
most recent terrorist attack than any newspaper
could have ever delivered 100 years ago.
33. The Research Findings
Research by Steven Pinker at Harvard
University has shown that we are
currently living in the least violent time
in history. There are more people living
in peace right now than ever before. The
rates of homicide, rape, sexual assault,
and child abuse are all falling.
34. Let’s Examine Our Thinking Process
Most people are shocked when they hear these
statistics. Some still refuse to believe them. If this
is the most peaceful time in history, why are there
so many wars going on right now? Why do I hear
about rape and murder and crime every day? Why
is everyone talking about so many acts of
terrorism and destruction?
Can you explain why we still think that the
world is more violent today than in the past?
35. Can you explain why we miscalculate
events such as the crime rate?
The overall percentage of dangerous events is
decreasing, but the likelihood that you hear about one
of them (or many of them) is increasing. And because
these events are readily available in our mind, our
brains assume that they happen with greater
frequency than they actually do.
We overvalue and overestimate the impact of things
that we can remember and we undervalue and
underestimate the prevalence of the events we hear
nothing about.
36. Watch Out for Other Mental Short Cuts
We are approached by a car salesman in older, casual
clothing on Tuesday afternoon who wants us to take a
test drive of a brand new Honda Accord. We decline the
offer and head off to another dealer. We are approached
by a salesman dressed in a new looking suit and tie. He
makes the same offer to drive a new Honda Accord. We
accept his offer and take the car for a spin. We make a
deal to purchase the automobile. What we didn’t know
was that the first dealer would have sold the car for
$2,000. less than the second salesman.
What kind of mental error did we make?
37. If there are dark clouds in the sky,
we might assume that it will rain.
However, within the hour, the
clouds could blow away.
38. Does buying something expensive generally mean
that it is better quality than something less
expensive?
40. Chevron Extra Mile Gas Stations
Meet in Groups and Discuss
Most people are aware that Chevron Extra Mile gas is more expensive than
Arco AM PM gas. In general, it can cost anywhere from four dollars to ten
dollars more to fill your tank at Chevron.
Why do you think that people choose to pay a lot more to buy gas from
Chevron?
Do people make certain assumptions about the quality of gas at Chevron and
Arco?
When you make an assumption about something what should you do to
make sure it is correct?
What might be good evidence to support an assumption about which gas is
best?
42. It could be fatal to assume that a Trojan horse is a
cool, interesting wood statue.
Do you know why a Trojan horse might be
deceptive?
43. Learn how to ask questions that
uncover faulty assumptions.
44.
45. Collecting all of the relevant evidence is critical
before Jumping to conclusions.
46. Careful thought and analysis leads to fewer mental
errors and better problem solving. Learning these
skills will save you money, improve your quality of
life, and increase your longevity.
