click log heat map, demographic targeting, long tail

1. Case studies w/Analytics, Real
Time, DM/ML in a hackathon
L’Oreal 8/27/2013
Not Hadoop

2. Agenda
• Problem Statement:
– Digital and Retail behavior analysis:
• Long tail problem similarities
– Propensity Marketing:
• Propensity for consumer to respond to promotion?
• Cover DM/ML Demographics presentation
– Profitability Marketing
• Who are the most profitable customers?
• Obvious answer, select * from customers join orders order by amt
desc;
– Promotion Modeling
• What drives order values and who should receive promotions?

3. What do I do
• Work, Tech lead Google, ~10y, Architect
Absolute SW
• Teach, mentor others on Big Data, Hadoop,
DM/ML
• http://www.meetup.com/HandsOnProgrammi
ngEvents/.

4. Review
• Theory:
– What is long tail?
– Long tail success case studies
– Demographic targeting/Modeling and prediction
– ML/DM success case studies
• Data Analysis Strategies/Structure

5. What is the Long Tail?
• Originated from search engines/Google
• Don’t focus on the top 20% queries, focus on
the bottom 50% first
• Why? The bottom 50% was the hardest:
LP&SB. The top 20% was automatic

6. Long Tail Example, keywords

7. Keyword Lift/Complementary
Strategies
• 70% of the keywords are not used frequently.
• Page Rank/feature selection/Spam reduction
– Most data (demographics is inaccurate, eBay problem)
• Quality of features enable ML/DM modeling
– Identify these words first using simple SQL queries
then run a model and use A/B testing to iterate to
better results
– Example of ML/DM later
• Case study of data visualisation for search query
length

8. Complete solution not possible
• A complete solution to the long tail is not
possible via a hackathon
• Examples of Complete Solutions
– Example: Symantec uses modified page rank to see if
virus files are safe/not safe. Viruses are different, all
are unique. You can’t rely on past examples. >90%
accuracy rate. Uses people feedback.
– Example: Yahoo content system matching users to
content ~100 attributes->1k attributes. Most users
only go to Yahoo news for a few stories. MM guides
this

9. Another long tail on search query
length

10. Long Tail
• Obvious longer queries imply user wants more precise
result. Precision vs. Recall
• Obvious these users are more valuable b/c the directed
intent is more focused. Showing the user enter in queries
with more precision is very very valuable for shopping and
other applications with focused directed intent
• The above case results in a $50.00 click to Google for
Salesforce/SAP ads (e.g home financing/mortgages)
• Best way to see this is in a demo:
 Move mouse on dots which are close to each other:
http://dataincolour.com:8888/#1144645000
 DEMO!!!!!

11. Example real time applied to previous
example
 We looked at search keywords and search phrase
length. Visualizations as a substitute for Machine
Learning algorithms. Much faster to implement
 Some students <~20 years old did this in a
weekend hackathon:
http://www.dataincolour.com/2011/06/curiousn
akes-visualization-of-aol-questions/
 http://datainsightsf.com/schedule-2/ Not
repeated

12. What to do?
• Brainstorm some more, definitely something here, play
w/data; will come in time. The most important part is
the definition of the problem, not the code
– Think more code less
• Should you copy the data visualisation example on
Search Query Length?
– Probably not
• A long long time ago Google displayed the incoming
search queries in the lobby; this had practical use
• Real time constrain the problem, less complicated
processing, less about the algorithm, more about the
user

13. Why Real Time? Long Tail
 Do I really need real time? Yes, why?
 Pre2010 Google search displayed all the results, a
combination of precision and recall.
 Post 2010 Google went to instant search, limited recall.
Nobody drilled down to the 1Mth page for DVDs.
Better ads results with real time
 Analytics today is similar to pre2010 Google search,
batch processing using click logs
 Real time analytics mostly custom solutions but can be
much more effective. Once user leaves the website too
late to do anything. Many orders of magnitude
difference. Precision >> Recall

14. UI:mouse over a stream of dots

15. Mouse on a dot which is part of a
group which looks like a snake
 Can see what user typed in as queries after
another, here is one example;
 How to fix car-> What is a fuel filter-> How to
replace a fuel filter.
 This is valuable in adding additional features
to the user who asked this
 Can't get this from SQL queries easily or at all.

16. What is the lesson here?
• Viewing data in real time has value
• Minimum it helps clear the thinking for the
next step
• Use as an alerting system/QC process to show
if ML/DM is running correctly (proprietary in
Google/Yahoo). Every business has these.
• Key: visible to everybody w/o running a SQL
query

17. Wisdom gained matches across 2
hackathons
• One of the most surprising pieces of work was
a unique data visualization from the DM
hackathon
• None of these positive results were defined in
the problem statement. Required creativity.
• Careful

18. Review ML/DM
• Review a small subset of these slides:
– http://www.slideshare.net/DougChang1/demographic
s-andweblogtargeting-10757778
• Agenda: review a case study of the Motley Fool
and how to create/target promotions to likely
subscribers for problem #2, propensity marketing
• Case study of a past hackathon.
– My role: I seed the ideas, Mike Bowles, Nick Kolegraff

19. ML/DM Slides
• DO NOT INSERT SLIDES, cover the original so
we don’t limit the scope of audience
questions

20. ML/DM and Hackathons
• Done 2 as examples,
– Motley Fool, cosponsored by Kaggle (Mike Bowles)
– Best Buy, paid Kaggle (Nick Kolegraff@Accenture/DM SIG,
we sought him out)
– These events require guidance/very successful, both still
are receptive to more DM/ML events
• Careful: an algorithm doesn’t mean you have a
production process or something someone can
manage via a paid analyst headcount
• Why aren’t there more? Time investment to clean data,
tech talk to guide participants, min 3 months work

21. What do I do for others which may
help you?
• Seed the ideas; should add a structure to this. NDA. Run
SQL queries
• Current Case Study
– Starting to do the prep work for another real time analytics
example, teaching from this
– Nick/Mike did this for the other 2 hackathons.
• Match the strategy w/structure
– Take time off work to build an engineering prototype (Twitter
Storm in old slide deck)
– Not covering this here
– Strategy: first display the data in a real time dashboard then
iterate the visualizations, then add DM/ML algorithms after the
A/B testing framework is complete

22. One example, web page heat maps

23. Amazon Web Page

24. Google Shopping
Example/Reversed/Why?

25. Upper Left hand corner

26. Example of Kiehls

27. Kiehl’s Example
• Put in offers w/($ amount, product desc, click url)
customized per user, A/B test layouts and placement,
store data for customization and measure lift
• Measure facebook ads via page rank
• Predict missing links application
• http://blog.echen.me/2012/07/31/edge-prediction-in-
a-social-graph-my-solution-to-facebooks-user-
recommendation-contest-on-kaggle/
• Careful, don’t copy. Example only. Generalize to
hackathon. Many other ideas
• Your answer is different from Yahoo & Google.
This isn’t a roadmap.

28. Structure has to match Strategy
• Partner w/Macy’s? Develop a structure to
work with retail partners to increase their
sales
– E.g. customized shopkick
– Don’t just release APIs, release mobile app source
code ppl can modify
• Test promotions and building profiles?
• … lots of ideas