2010: Coping with the Crisis and Future Challenges

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Coping with the Crisis and future Challenges: Economic Performance and Prospects Keith Jefferis 29 June 2010

The Botswana economy is … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Global growth slowdown ... and recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: JP Morgan

Emerging markets leading the recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: JP Morgan

Signs of recovery ... minerals prices ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: LME

2009 – a year of recession for Botswana ,[object Object],[object Object]

Annual sectoral growth 2009 – contrasts between export and domestic sectors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

2009 – a year of recession …. but robust recovery forecast ,[object Object],[object Object]

DTC Diamond Sales ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Exports & imports ... in shock ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Trade balance .. big deficits ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Exchange rates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Nominal Effective XR (Pula basket) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

FX Reserves ,[object Object],[object Object]

Inflation, Interest rates and Financial Sector

Inflation ... should stay low for a while, but how low? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Monetary policy – easing with large cuts in interest rates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Financial sector: has remained strong during global crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Bank credit – growth recovery Arrears – a problem to watch

Fiscal policy – stimulus helped the economy, but at the cost of large deficits ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Impact of deficits on Govt finances ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Prospects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Thank You ,[object Object],[object Object]

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