SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 41
Descargar para leer sin conexión
AIRLINE MARKET OUTLOOK
Frederico Fleury Curado
Executive Vice-President, Airline Market
Farnborough 2006
Investors Meeting
July 19th, 2006
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or
circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements
largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends
affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking
statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other
things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our
market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”
“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We
undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements
because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and
uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation
might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our
forward-looking statements.
Forward Looking Statement
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Q Airline Market Scenario and Trends
Q Important Issues in the 30-120 Seat Segment:
§ RJ 50: an intrinsic part of the air transportation system
§ E-Jets: matching aircraft capacity to market demand
Q Market Forecast
Contents
Airline Market
Scenario and
Trends
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
China
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Africa
Russia & CIS
Europe
Latin America
USA, Canada & Caribbean
World
RPK
GDP
Source: Global Insight and Embraer
Positive World Economic Scenario
2006-2025 economic scenario is sustaining Air Travel Demand growth
Projected Traffic and Economic Growth by Region (Average Annual Growth)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1995
1996
1996
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006F
2007F
Billion(RPK&ASK)
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
%(LoadFactor)
RPK ASK Load Factor
Increased Air Travel Demand
Traffic is recovering at strong growth rates but in another environment
Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines
6.3% yoy 7.7% yoy 6.4% yoy
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Revenue Environment
World yields are improving, but trend in real terms remains low
Source: ICAO (Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight (USA CPI Inflation) and IATA Economics
World real yields in 2005 are 28% lower than 1994 values in an
environment where LCCs pricing power is the main driver.
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F
Index(1994=100)
World Nominal Yield
World Real Yield (adj. for US inflation)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Financial Net Results
Some improvement to profitability, projecting a healthier 2007
Source: IATA (Jun/06)
Europe
2005 2006F 2007F
1.6 1.3 1.4
Values in US$ Billion
2005 2006F 2007F
-0.4 -0.9 -0.6
Africa
2005 2006F 2007F
-0.1 0.1 0.2
Latin America
2005 2006F 2007F
0.2 0.1 0.3
Middle East
2005 2006F 2007F
2.1 1.7 2.0
Asia Pacific
2005 2006F 2007F
-3.2 -3.0 3.3
World
2005 2006F 2007F
-6.7 -5.2 0.0
North America
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
End of Cheap Jet Fuel
Lack of spare oil production capacity remains è high price trend
Source: EIA - Energy Industry Administration (Jun/06)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Jan05
Mar05
May05
Jul05
Sep05
Nov05
Jan06
Mar06
May06
Price(US$/Barrel)
Crude Oil
Jet Fuel
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
MillionsofBarrelperDay
Capacity
Demand
Current jet fuel
price 48% higher
than Jan/05
For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at
US$60-70 level and jet fuel at US$1.70-1.90/gallon
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Higher Competitive Environment
LCC will keep capturing market share from Network carriers
Source: Back Aviation and Embraer
76%
60%
19%
29%
11%
57%
31%
5%
12%
2000 2005 2010E
Network LCC Regional
USA Domestic RPM Intra Europe RPK
72%
65%
11%
19%
17% 16%
50%
34%
16%
2000 2005 2010E
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
LCC & Network Cost Convergence
Operating
Result
(MM)
Net Result
(MM)
Operating
Margin
(%)
Net
Margin
(%)
Operating
Result
(MM)
Net Result
(MM)
Operating
Margin
(%)
Net Margin
(%)
American $52 -$106 1,0% -2,0% -$44 -$171 -0,9% -3,6%
Continental $11 -$66 0,4% -2,2% -$173 -$186 -6,9% -7,4%
Delta -$485 -$2.069 -13,0% -55,6% -$957 -$1.071 -25,8% -28,9%
Northwest -$15 -$1.104 -0,5% -38,2% -$301 -$529 -10,8% -18,9%
United * -$168 $22.411 -3,8% - -$239 -$1.012 -6,1% -25,8%
US Airways $125 $65 4,7% 2,5% $45 -$174 6,1% -23,7%
ExpressJet $37 $24 9,2% 5,9% $39 $23 10,3% 6,2%
Skywest $83 $35 11,2% 4,6% $34 $19 10,1% 5,5%
Pinnacle $22 $13 10,4% 6,4% $20 $23 10,3% 12,0%
Republic $48 $17 18,6% 6,6% $37 $15 17,4% 7,1%
Southwest $98 $61 4,9% 3,0% $81 $59 4,9% 3,5%
JetBlue -$25 -$32 -5,1% -6,5% $25 $6 6,7% 1,6%
Alaska Group -$125 -$79 -17,0% -10,8% $27 -$81 4,2% -12,5%
AirTran -$4 -$5 -1,1% -1,1% -$9 -$8 -3,2% -2,7%
1Q 20051Q 2006NetworkLCCRegional
Airlines
Source: Airlines (Total System: Domestic and International)
* United: Net Result includes reorganization items (the discharge of claims and liabilities primarily relates to those unsecured claims arising during the
bankruptcy process. United recognized a non-cashreorganization gain of $24.4 billion in the 1Q06).
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
6,018
routes with less than two
average daily frequency
USA & Europe
Average Daily Frequency by Route
Routes operated exclusively by Jet Aircraft
from 91 – 175 seats up to 2000 nm
34%
41%
17%
6%
2%
0 - 0,5 0,5 - <2 2 - <5 5 - <10 >=10
Average Daily Frequency
%ofRoutes
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05)
Opportunities for Rightsizing
Additional opportunities are still in the marketplace
Can the RJ 50
market get
sustained?
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Regional Airlines – Europe
TP 1995
3026 routes
723 aircraft
Av. stage length:
200 nm (370 km)
TP 2005
2810 routes
666 aircraft
Av. stage length:
231nm (428 km)
RJ 2005
1722 routes
294 aircraft
Av. stage length:
387 nm (717 km)
RJ 1995
273 routes
37 aircraft
Av. stage length:
414 nm (767 km)
Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 700%
and TP shrank by 8%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200 and 328JET)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Regional Airlines – USA
RJ 2005
2888 routes
1358 aircraft
Av. stage length:
395 nm (732 Km)
TP 2005
902 routes
740 aircraft
Av. stage length:
159 nm (295Km)
TP 1995
1908 routes
1599 aircraft
Av. stage length:
179 nm (332 Km)
RJ 1995
180 routes
36 aircraft
Av. stage length:
391 nm (724 Km)
Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 3600%
and TP fleet shrank 54%
Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Source: Back Aviation (T100 and OD1A: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET). 2006 FAA Report (DOT Form 41 & Form 298C)
USA Hub & Spoke System
1. RJs are responsible for 22% of all USA domestic passengers
2. RJs: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger
Hubs are largely dependent on RJs
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
New Market Opportunities - USA
Source: Back Aviation (OAG 2005)
136 potential markets
without any direct service
Selection Criteria:
1. Market Demand: 25-75 PDEWs without
direct flights
2. Distance Profile: 250 -- 1500 mi
3. Revenue Environment: Yield >= RJ Yield
New market opportunities
Note: RJ Yield Curve = 2005 Yields for ExpressJet and Pinnacle – 1 coupon)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
New Market Opportunities – EU
Source: Back Aviation (OAG) and Embraer
0 40 80 120 160 200
2001-2005
1996-2000
Markets
Primary-Primary
Primary-Secondary
Secondary-Secondary
Point-to-Point – new routes to secondary cities/airports is increasing
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2004. Only domestic routes less than1,500 nm
RJ 50 Market Opportunities – China
Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies.
59%of total
routes have less
than 1 daily
frequency and
less than
135 pax/day
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Yak-40
Jet – 30 seats
122 aircraft
Average Age: 31 yrs
RJ 50 Market Opportunities – Russia
Tu-134
Turboprop - 50 seats
122 aircraft
Average Age: 34 yrs
Jet - 76 seats
123 aircraft
Average Age: 28 yrs
Jet - 120 seats
54 aircraft
Average Age: 17 yrs
30-60
Seat Segment
244 aircraft
33 years old
(average)
An-24
61-90
Seat Segment
91-120
Seat Segment
Yak-42
Old Fleet Replacement
Source: BACK (Fleet PC Feb06)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Parked Aircraft
Source: Back Aviation (Fleet PC 06/Jul/06)
85CRJ100/200/440USA and Canada
3ERJ145Latin America
2ERJ145
13CRJ00/200/440
Europe
Parked
(as of Jul/06)
Aircraft TypeRegion
5%
1%
9%
% of Fleet
Parked
103
5
98
Parked
(as of Jul/06)
Total
ERJ145
CRJ100/200/440
WORLD
Aircraft TypeRegion
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RJ 50 Residual Value (RV) Evolution
RV by Quarter at 12 Years Age
ERJ 145s are sustaining Residual Values
Source: MBA Avitas Airclaims, et al
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
US$Million
ERJ 145
CRJ-200
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family
The Evolution of Regionals
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Product Improvements
ERJ 145LR
§ 13,500 ft
(China)
ERJ 145LR/XR
§ 10,000 ft
(North America, South America,
Mexico, China)
ERJ 145ER/MP
§ 8,500 ft
(South America, Mexico, EASA)
High Altitude OperationDesign Weights Brake Hardware
ERJ 145ER/LR/XR Models
§ Maintenance costs reduction
§ Original 1000FC Guaranteed
New Design
§ ER/LR Model: 1750 FC
§ XR Model: 1800 FC
Optional weight increase:
ERJ 135ER
§ Since Dec2005:
MZFW = +400kg (880 lb)
ERJ 145ER
§ To be available mid 2006:
MZFW = +250kg (550lb)
ERJ 145LR
§ To be available mid 2006:
MTOW = +600kg (1,320lb)
MZFW = +500kg (1,100lb)
MLW = +500kg (1,100lb)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
ERJ 145 Family Orderbook
(as of June 30, 2006)
6
6
-
-
Firm
Backlog
8581,023159864Total
676839157682ERJ 145
7474-74ERJ 140
1081102108ERJ 135
DeliveriesTotalOptions
Firm
Orders
The 70 to 110-seat
jet market
evolution
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005
NumberofFlights
20-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-95%
USA Dom.: Further Capacity Adjustment Opportunities
Load Factor distribution for USA domestic jet flights
RJ 50 70-110 Narrow-body (120-150)
There are further opportunities in the
capacity adjustment process
Source: Back Aviation (T100)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family - USA & Canada
28 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
454 nm (841 km)
15 E175
Avg. Stage Length:
504 nm (933 km)
11 E190
Avg. Stage Length:
742 nm (1374 km)
17 E190
Avg. Stage Length:
501 nm (928 km)
28 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
531 nm (984 km)
15 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
1029 nm (1906 km)
Source: BACK/OAG (1H06 routes ; Fleet as of June 30, 2006)
Jun/06: 114 E-Jets
Avg. Stage Length: 548 nm (1015 km)
Jun/06: 114 E-Jets
Avg. Stage Length: 548 nm (1015 km)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family - Europe
Jun/06: 28 E-Jets
Avg. Stage Length: 445 nm (824 km)
Jun/06: 28 E-Jets
Avg. Stage Length: 445 nm (824 km)
6 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
377 nm (699 km)
6 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
423 nm (784 km)
10 E170 + 4 E175
Avg. Stage Length:
527 nm (975 km)
2 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
224 nm (415 km)
Source: BACK/OAG (1H06 routes ; Fleet as of June 30, 2006)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family - Asia & Middle East
2 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
377 nm (698 km)
4 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
458 nm (848 km)
8 E170
Avg. Stage Length:
303 nm (561 km)
Jun/06: 14 E-Jets
Avg. Stage Length: 364 nm (675 km)
Jun/06: 14 E-Jets
Avg. Stage Length: 364 nm (675 km)
Source: BACK/OAG (1H06 routes ; Fleet as of June 30, 2006)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Operation
Longest Route
3,274 km (1,768 nm ; 2,033 sm) @ 5:10hs
Air Canada – E190
Shortest Route
137 km (74 nm ; 85 sm) @ 0:37 hs
Saudi Arabian – E170
Source: BACK/OAG (2Q06)
Jouf
Arar
New York
Calgary
Equipment
Avg. Stage
Length (km)
Avg. Elapsed
Time (hours)
Longest
Flight (km)
Shortest
Flight (km)
E170 930 1:50 2,510 137
E175 962 1:55 2,219 150
E190 1,017 2:01 3,274 301
E-Jets 945 1:52 3,274 137
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
RASK/M
Capacity
Regional Airlines
Beyond the Current Models...
There is a need for a new TOOL
Network Airlines
Low Cost
Carriers
E-JetsE-Jets
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family – Efficiency to all Business Models
Regional Network Low Cost
Source: Embraer (Mar/06)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
EIS Statistics – E-Jets Family
(*) Air Canada operates E175 and E190
Operators 10 Operators 3
Aircraft in Service 122 Aircraft in Service 23
Flight Hours 332,736 Flight Hours 21,375
Flight Cycles 226,429 Flight Cycles 13,666
Operators*
Aircraft in Service
Flight Hours
Flight Cycles
E170/175 E190/195
12
145
354,111
240,095
E170/190 Family
Source: Airlines (as of Jun 23th 2006)
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
The E-Jets Family
The 70 to 110-seat market evolution
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Program
Jul/06Jun/06Jan/05Feb/04EASA
FAA
ANAC (CTA)
4Q06*Sep/053Q06*Feb/04
Jun/06Aug/05Dec/04Feb/04
E195E190E175E170Certification
Follow-on Certification
E190 ETOPS
Ready for customer operational
approval:
ETOPS 75 minutes: end of 2006
ETOPS 120 minutes: end of 2007
(*) to be certified
CAT IIIa Autoland E170 LCY Steep Approach
E170 à
E175 à 4Q06
E190 à 4Q07
E195 à 4Q08
C e r t i f i e d
ANAC FAA
EASA
• Kit provides a fly-by-wire function
to allow the use of multi-function
spoilers as lift/drag devices.
• 650 nm range
Certification: Dec/06
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
E-Jets Family Orderbook
36-764036EMBRAER 195
292
220
3
33
Firm
Backlog
163897442455Total
33539286253EMBRAER 190
1922-22EMBRAER 175
111260116144EMBRAER 170
DeliveriesTotalOptions
Firm
Orders
(as of June 30, 2006)
Market Forecast
2006-2025
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025)
Worldwide Jet Deliveries by Capacity Segment
18,13518,135
10,18510,185
7,9507,950
3,4503,450
2,9502,950
1,5501,550
20062006 -- 20252025
790790
610610
180180
8888
6565
2727
US$ BiUS$ Bi
4,6004,6003,3503,3503030 -- 120120
1,9001,9001,5501,5509191 -- 120120
9,3809,380
4,7804,780
1,6501,650
1,0501,050
20162016 -- 20252025
8,7558,7553030 -- 180180
5,4055,405121121 -- 180180
1,3001,3006161 -- 9090
5005003030 -- 6060
20062006 -- 20152015SegmentSegment
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
USA, Canada
& Caribbean
7,735
43%
Europe
3,825
21%
China
1,785
10%
Latin
America
1,320
7%
Africa
253
1%
Asia
Pacific
1,865
11%
Middle East
392
2%
Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025)
Projected Deliveries: 18,135 jets (30-180 seats)
Russia
& CIS
960
5%
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.
70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER
Thank youThank you

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
Embraer RI
 
Conference Call 4Q13
Conference Call 4Q13Conference Call 4Q13
Conference Call 4Q13
Embraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
Embraer RI
 
Embraer 3 q14_results_final
Embraer 3 q14_results_finalEmbraer 3 q14_results_final
Embraer 3 q14_results_final
Embraer RI
 
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
Embraer RI
 
2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation Us Gaap
2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation   Us Gaap2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation   Us Gaap
2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation Us Gaap
Embraer RI
 
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
Embraer RI
 
Conference Call 2Q13
Conference Call 2Q13Conference Call 2Q13
Conference Call 2Q13
Embraer RI
 
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.155.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
Embraer RI
 
Emb day defense & security oct2013
Emb day defense & security oct2013Emb day defense & security oct2013
Emb day defense & security oct2013
Embraer RI
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013
Emb day executive aviation oct2013Emb day executive aviation oct2013
Emb day executive aviation oct2013
Embraer RI
 
Embraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book riEmbraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer RI
 
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
Embraer RI
 
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
Embraer RI
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
Embraer RI
 
Conference Call 1Q14
Conference Call 1Q14Conference Call 1Q14
Conference Call 1Q14
Embraer RI
 
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_finalEmbraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer RI
 

La actualidad más candente (20)

Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (8)
 
Conference Call 4Q13
Conference Call 4Q13Conference Call 4Q13
Conference Call 4Q13
 
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - May 2013
 
Embraer 3 q14_results_final
Embraer 3 q14_results_finalEmbraer 3 q14_results_final
Embraer 3 q14_results_final
 
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
Embraer 1 q15_results_final (1)
 
2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation Us Gaap
2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation   Us Gaap2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation   Us Gaap
2005 - 4 Q04 Results Presentation Us Gaap
 
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
Embraer march 2015 book ri (1)
 
Conference Call 2Q13
Conference Call 2Q13Conference Call 2Q13
Conference Call 2Q13
 
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.155.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
 
Conference Call 2Q14
Conference Call 2Q14Conference Call 2Q14
Conference Call 2Q14
 
Emb day defense & security oct2013
Emb day defense & security oct2013Emb day defense & security oct2013
Emb day defense & security oct2013
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013
Emb day executive aviation oct2013Emb day executive aviation oct2013
Emb day executive aviation oct2013
 
Embraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book riEmbraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book ri
 
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
Emb day commercial aviation oct2013
 
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
IR Institutional Presentation - November 2013
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
 
Conference Call 1Q14
Conference Call 1Q14Conference Call 1Q14
Conference Call 1Q14
 
Israel Opportunity 2008 Conference for International Investors in London
Israel Opportunity 2008 Conference for International Investors in LondonIsrael Opportunity 2008 Conference for International Investors in London
Israel Opportunity 2008 Conference for International Investors in London
 
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_finalEmbraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
 
Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034
Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034
Airbus presentation global market forecast_2015-2034
 

Destacado (7)

Happy easter in poland
Happy easter in polandHappy easter in poland
Happy easter in poland
 
Presentation1
Presentation1Presentation1
Presentation1
 
What the..
What the..What the..
What the..
 
6 andi m amir - tungau kuning teh
6 andi m amir - tungau kuning teh6 andi m amir - tungau kuning teh
6 andi m amir - tungau kuning teh
 
The Effective Eedication
The Effective EedicationThe Effective Eedication
The Effective Eedication
 
Salvador dalí
Salvador dalíSalvador dalí
Salvador dalí
 
Intervención pedagdesarrollosexprees
Intervención pedagdesarrollosexpreesIntervención pedagdesarrollosexprees
Intervención pedagdesarrollosexprees
 

Similar a 2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO Comercial

Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional
Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado RegionalApresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional
Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional
Embraer RI
 
4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP
4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP
4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP
Embraer RI
 
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Embraer RI
 
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Embraer RI
 
Embraer may 2010 soc_gen
Embraer may 2010 soc_genEmbraer may 2010 soc_gen
Embraer may 2010 soc_gen
Embraer RI
 
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive JetsEmbraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
Embraer RI
 
Embraer may 2015 book ri
Embraer may 2015 book riEmbraer may 2015 book ri
Embraer may 2015 book ri
Embraer RI
 
Embraer december 2014 book ri
Embraer december 2014 book riEmbraer december 2014 book ri
Embraer december 2014 book ri
Embraer RI
 
Société générale beyond europe conference
Société générale   beyond europe conferenceSociété générale   beyond europe conference
Société générale beyond europe conference
Embraer RI
 
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
Embraer RI
 
Aviation Industry
Aviation IndustryAviation Industry
Aviation Industry
Navin Bafna
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Embraer RI
 
Aerospace Industry Outlook
Aerospace Industry OutlookAerospace Industry Outlook
Aerospace Industry Outlook
jcossette
 
Embraer october 2011 book
Embraer october 2011 bookEmbraer october 2011 book
Embraer october 2011 book
Embraer RI
 
2004* ConferêNcia Santander Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
2004* ConferêNcia Santander   Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)2004* ConferêNcia Santander   Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
2004* ConferêNcia Santander Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
Embraer RI
 
Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006
Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006
Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006
Embraer RI
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Embraer RI
 
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
Embraer RI
 

Similar a 2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO Comercial (20)

Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional
Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado RegionalApresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional
Apresentação São Paulo - Mercado Regional
 
4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP
4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP
4Q04 Results Presentation - US GAAP
 
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
 
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
Commercial aviation embraer day 2010 10_29
 
Embraer may 2010 soc_gen
Embraer may 2010 soc_genEmbraer may 2010 soc_gen
Embraer may 2010 soc_gen
 
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive JetsEmbraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
Embraer Day BR 2014 Executive Jets
 
Embraer may 2015 book ri
Embraer may 2015 book riEmbraer may 2015 book ri
Embraer may 2015 book ri
 
Embraer december 2014 book ri
Embraer december 2014 book riEmbraer december 2014 book ri
Embraer december 2014 book ri
 
Société générale beyond europe conference
Société générale   beyond europe conferenceSociété générale   beyond europe conference
Société générale beyond europe conference
 
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
Embraer 4 q14_results_final (1)
 
Aviation Industry
Aviation IndustryAviation Industry
Aviation Industry
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
 
Aerospace Industry Outlook
Aerospace Industry OutlookAerospace Industry Outlook
Aerospace Industry Outlook
 
Embraer october 2011 book
Embraer october 2011 bookEmbraer october 2011 book
Embraer october 2011 book
 
2004* ConferêNcia Santander Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
2004* ConferêNcia Santander   Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)2004* ConferêNcia Santander   Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
2004* ConferêNcia Santander Cancun (DisponíVel Apenas Em InglêS)
 
Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006
Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006
Financial and corporate governance embraer day 2006
 
2013 Global MRO Market Forecast & Trends
2013 Global MRO Market Forecast & Trends2013 Global MRO Market Forecast & Trends
2013 Global MRO Market Forecast & Trends
 
MRO Market Update and Industry Trends
MRO Market Update and Industry TrendsMRO Market Update and Industry Trends
MRO Market Update and Industry Trends
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
 
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
 

Más de Embraer RI

Embraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book riEmbraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer RI
 
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev74.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
Embraer RI
 
2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda
Embraer RI
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
Embraer RI
 
Embraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book riEmbraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer RI
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
Embraer RI
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
Embraer RI
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
Embraer RI
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev92015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
Embraer RI
 
Embraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_final
Embraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_finalEmbraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_final
Embraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_final
Embraer RI
 

Más de Embraer RI (10)

Embraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book riEmbraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book ri
 
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev74.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
 
2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
 
Embraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book riEmbraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book ri
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev92015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
 
Embraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_final
Embraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_finalEmbraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_final
Embraer resultados 3 t14_jornalistas_final
 

2006* Farnborough Airshow ApresentaçãO AviaçãO Comercial

  • 1. AIRLINE MARKET OUTLOOK Frederico Fleury Curado Executive Vice-President, Airline Market Farnborough 2006 Investors Meeting July 19th, 2006
  • 2. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. Forward Looking Statement
  • 3. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Q Airline Market Scenario and Trends Q Important Issues in the 30-120 Seat Segment: § RJ 50: an intrinsic part of the air transportation system § E-Jets: matching aircraft capacity to market demand Q Market Forecast Contents
  • 5. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% China Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Russia & CIS Europe Latin America USA, Canada & Caribbean World RPK GDP Source: Global Insight and Embraer Positive World Economic Scenario 2006-2025 economic scenario is sustaining Air Travel Demand growth Projected Traffic and Economic Growth by Region (Average Annual Growth)
  • 6. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1995 1996 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F Billion(RPK&ASK) 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% %(LoadFactor) RPK ASK Load Factor Increased Air Travel Demand Traffic is recovering at strong growth rates but in another environment Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines 6.3% yoy 7.7% yoy 6.4% yoy
  • 7. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Revenue Environment World yields are improving, but trend in real terms remains low Source: ICAO (Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight (USA CPI Inflation) and IATA Economics World real yields in 2005 are 28% lower than 1994 values in an environment where LCCs pricing power is the main driver. 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F Index(1994=100) World Nominal Yield World Real Yield (adj. for US inflation)
  • 8. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Financial Net Results Some improvement to profitability, projecting a healthier 2007 Source: IATA (Jun/06) Europe 2005 2006F 2007F 1.6 1.3 1.4 Values in US$ Billion 2005 2006F 2007F -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 Africa 2005 2006F 2007F -0.1 0.1 0.2 Latin America 2005 2006F 2007F 0.2 0.1 0.3 Middle East 2005 2006F 2007F 2.1 1.7 2.0 Asia Pacific 2005 2006F 2007F -3.2 -3.0 3.3 World 2005 2006F 2007F -6.7 -5.2 0.0 North America
  • 9. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. End of Cheap Jet Fuel Lack of spare oil production capacity remains è high price trend Source: EIA - Energy Industry Administration (Jun/06) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Jan05 Mar05 May05 Jul05 Sep05 Nov05 Jan06 Mar06 May06 Price(US$/Barrel) Crude Oil Jet Fuel 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 MillionsofBarrelperDay Capacity Demand Current jet fuel price 48% higher than Jan/05 For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at US$60-70 level and jet fuel at US$1.70-1.90/gallon
  • 10. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Higher Competitive Environment LCC will keep capturing market share from Network carriers Source: Back Aviation and Embraer 76% 60% 19% 29% 11% 57% 31% 5% 12% 2000 2005 2010E Network LCC Regional USA Domestic RPM Intra Europe RPK 72% 65% 11% 19% 17% 16% 50% 34% 16% 2000 2005 2010E
  • 11. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. LCC & Network Cost Convergence Operating Result (MM) Net Result (MM) Operating Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Operating Result (MM) Net Result (MM) Operating Margin (%) Net Margin (%) American $52 -$106 1,0% -2,0% -$44 -$171 -0,9% -3,6% Continental $11 -$66 0,4% -2,2% -$173 -$186 -6,9% -7,4% Delta -$485 -$2.069 -13,0% -55,6% -$957 -$1.071 -25,8% -28,9% Northwest -$15 -$1.104 -0,5% -38,2% -$301 -$529 -10,8% -18,9% United * -$168 $22.411 -3,8% - -$239 -$1.012 -6,1% -25,8% US Airways $125 $65 4,7% 2,5% $45 -$174 6,1% -23,7% ExpressJet $37 $24 9,2% 5,9% $39 $23 10,3% 6,2% Skywest $83 $35 11,2% 4,6% $34 $19 10,1% 5,5% Pinnacle $22 $13 10,4% 6,4% $20 $23 10,3% 12,0% Republic $48 $17 18,6% 6,6% $37 $15 17,4% 7,1% Southwest $98 $61 4,9% 3,0% $81 $59 4,9% 3,5% JetBlue -$25 -$32 -5,1% -6,5% $25 $6 6,7% 1,6% Alaska Group -$125 -$79 -17,0% -10,8% $27 -$81 4,2% -12,5% AirTran -$4 -$5 -1,1% -1,1% -$9 -$8 -3,2% -2,7% 1Q 20051Q 2006NetworkLCCRegional Airlines Source: Airlines (Total System: Domestic and International) * United: Net Result includes reorganization items (the discharge of claims and liabilities primarily relates to those unsecured claims arising during the bankruptcy process. United recognized a non-cashreorganization gain of $24.4 billion in the 1Q06).
  • 12. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. 6,018 routes with less than two average daily frequency USA & Europe Average Daily Frequency by Route Routes operated exclusively by Jet Aircraft from 91 – 175 seats up to 2000 nm 34% 41% 17% 6% 2% 0 - 0,5 0,5 - <2 2 - <5 5 - <10 >=10 Average Daily Frequency %ofRoutes Source: Back Aviation (OAG 4Q05) Opportunities for Rightsizing Additional opportunities are still in the marketplace
  • 13. Can the RJ 50 market get sustained?
  • 14. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Regional Airlines – Europe TP 1995 3026 routes 723 aircraft Av. stage length: 200 nm (370 km) TP 2005 2810 routes 666 aircraft Av. stage length: 231nm (428 km) RJ 2005 1722 routes 294 aircraft Av. stage length: 387 nm (717 km) RJ 1995 273 routes 37 aircraft Av. stage length: 414 nm (767 km) Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 700% and TP shrank by 8% Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06; RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200 and 328JET)
  • 15. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Regional Airlines – USA RJ 2005 2888 routes 1358 aircraft Av. stage length: 395 nm (732 Km) TP 2005 902 routes 740 aircraft Av. stage length: 159 nm (295Km) TP 1995 1908 routes 1599 aircraft Av. stage length: 179 nm (332 Km) RJ 1995 180 routes 36 aircraft Av. stage length: 391 nm (724 Km) Last 10 years: RJ fleet grew 3600% and TP fleet shrank 54% Source: Back Aviation (OAG Jan/06: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET)
  • 16. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Source: Back Aviation (T100 and OD1A: RJ: ERJ 145 Family, CRJ 100/200/440 and 328JET). 2006 FAA Report (DOT Form 41 & Form 298C) USA Hub & Spoke System 1. RJs are responsible for 22% of all USA domestic passengers 2. RJs: 3 connecting passengers for each local passenger Hubs are largely dependent on RJs
  • 17. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. New Market Opportunities - USA Source: Back Aviation (OAG 2005) 136 potential markets without any direct service Selection Criteria: 1. Market Demand: 25-75 PDEWs without direct flights 2. Distance Profile: 250 -- 1500 mi 3. Revenue Environment: Yield >= RJ Yield New market opportunities Note: RJ Yield Curve = 2005 Yields for ExpressJet and Pinnacle – 1 coupon)
  • 18. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. New Market Opportunities – EU Source: Back Aviation (OAG) and Embraer 0 40 80 120 160 200 2001-2005 1996-2000 Markets Primary-Primary Primary-Secondary Secondary-Secondary Point-to-Point – new routes to secondary cities/airports is increasing
  • 19. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2004. Only domestic routes less than1,500 nm RJ 50 Market Opportunities – China Most of the routes have low demand density and low frequencies. 59%of total routes have less than 1 daily frequency and less than 135 pax/day
  • 20. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Yak-40 Jet – 30 seats 122 aircraft Average Age: 31 yrs RJ 50 Market Opportunities – Russia Tu-134 Turboprop - 50 seats 122 aircraft Average Age: 34 yrs Jet - 76 seats 123 aircraft Average Age: 28 yrs Jet - 120 seats 54 aircraft Average Age: 17 yrs 30-60 Seat Segment 244 aircraft 33 years old (average) An-24 61-90 Seat Segment 91-120 Seat Segment Yak-42 Old Fleet Replacement Source: BACK (Fleet PC Feb06)
  • 21. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. RJ 50 Parked Aircraft Source: Back Aviation (Fleet PC 06/Jul/06) 85CRJ100/200/440USA and Canada 3ERJ145Latin America 2ERJ145 13CRJ00/200/440 Europe Parked (as of Jul/06) Aircraft TypeRegion 5% 1% 9% % of Fleet Parked 103 5 98 Parked (as of Jul/06) Total ERJ145 CRJ100/200/440 WORLD Aircraft TypeRegion
  • 22. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. RJ 50 Residual Value (RV) Evolution RV by Quarter at 12 Years Age ERJ 145s are sustaining Residual Values Source: MBA Avitas Airclaims, et al 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 US$Million ERJ 145 CRJ-200
  • 23. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. ERJ 145 Family The Evolution of Regionals
  • 24. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. ERJ 145 Product Improvements ERJ 145LR § 13,500 ft (China) ERJ 145LR/XR § 10,000 ft (North America, South America, Mexico, China) ERJ 145ER/MP § 8,500 ft (South America, Mexico, EASA) High Altitude OperationDesign Weights Brake Hardware ERJ 145ER/LR/XR Models § Maintenance costs reduction § Original 1000FC Guaranteed New Design § ER/LR Model: 1750 FC § XR Model: 1800 FC Optional weight increase: ERJ 135ER § Since Dec2005: MZFW = +400kg (880 lb) ERJ 145ER § To be available mid 2006: MZFW = +250kg (550lb) ERJ 145LR § To be available mid 2006: MTOW = +600kg (1,320lb) MZFW = +500kg (1,100lb) MLW = +500kg (1,100lb)
  • 25. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. ERJ 145 Family Orderbook (as of June 30, 2006) 6 6 - - Firm Backlog 8581,023159864Total 676839157682ERJ 145 7474-74ERJ 140 1081102108ERJ 135 DeliveriesTotalOptions Firm Orders
  • 26. The 70 to 110-seat jet market evolution
  • 27. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 NumberofFlights 20-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-95% USA Dom.: Further Capacity Adjustment Opportunities Load Factor distribution for USA domestic jet flights RJ 50 70-110 Narrow-body (120-150) There are further opportunities in the capacity adjustment process Source: Back Aviation (T100)
  • 28. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Family - USA & Canada 28 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 454 nm (841 km) 15 E175 Avg. Stage Length: 504 nm (933 km) 11 E190 Avg. Stage Length: 742 nm (1374 km) 17 E190 Avg. Stage Length: 501 nm (928 km) 28 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 531 nm (984 km) 15 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 1029 nm (1906 km) Source: BACK/OAG (1H06 routes ; Fleet as of June 30, 2006) Jun/06: 114 E-Jets Avg. Stage Length: 548 nm (1015 km) Jun/06: 114 E-Jets Avg. Stage Length: 548 nm (1015 km)
  • 29. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Family - Europe Jun/06: 28 E-Jets Avg. Stage Length: 445 nm (824 km) Jun/06: 28 E-Jets Avg. Stage Length: 445 nm (824 km) 6 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 377 nm (699 km) 6 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 423 nm (784 km) 10 E170 + 4 E175 Avg. Stage Length: 527 nm (975 km) 2 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 224 nm (415 km) Source: BACK/OAG (1H06 routes ; Fleet as of June 30, 2006)
  • 30. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Family - Asia & Middle East 2 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 377 nm (698 km) 4 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 458 nm (848 km) 8 E170 Avg. Stage Length: 303 nm (561 km) Jun/06: 14 E-Jets Avg. Stage Length: 364 nm (675 km) Jun/06: 14 E-Jets Avg. Stage Length: 364 nm (675 km) Source: BACK/OAG (1H06 routes ; Fleet as of June 30, 2006)
  • 31. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Operation Longest Route 3,274 km (1,768 nm ; 2,033 sm) @ 5:10hs Air Canada – E190 Shortest Route 137 km (74 nm ; 85 sm) @ 0:37 hs Saudi Arabian – E170 Source: BACK/OAG (2Q06) Jouf Arar New York Calgary Equipment Avg. Stage Length (km) Avg. Elapsed Time (hours) Longest Flight (km) Shortest Flight (km) E170 930 1:50 2,510 137 E175 962 1:55 2,219 150 E190 1,017 2:01 3,274 301 E-Jets 945 1:52 3,274 137
  • 32. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. RASK/M Capacity Regional Airlines Beyond the Current Models... There is a need for a new TOOL Network Airlines Low Cost Carriers E-JetsE-Jets
  • 33. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Family – Efficiency to all Business Models Regional Network Low Cost Source: Embraer (Mar/06)
  • 34. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. EIS Statistics – E-Jets Family (*) Air Canada operates E175 and E190 Operators 10 Operators 3 Aircraft in Service 122 Aircraft in Service 23 Flight Hours 332,736 Flight Hours 21,375 Flight Cycles 226,429 Flight Cycles 13,666 Operators* Aircraft in Service Flight Hours Flight Cycles E170/175 E190/195 12 145 354,111 240,095 E170/190 Family Source: Airlines (as of Jun 23th 2006)
  • 35. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. The E-Jets Family The 70 to 110-seat market evolution
  • 36. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Program Jul/06Jun/06Jan/05Feb/04EASA FAA ANAC (CTA) 4Q06*Sep/053Q06*Feb/04 Jun/06Aug/05Dec/04Feb/04 E195E190E175E170Certification Follow-on Certification E190 ETOPS Ready for customer operational approval: ETOPS 75 minutes: end of 2006 ETOPS 120 minutes: end of 2007 (*) to be certified CAT IIIa Autoland E170 LCY Steep Approach E170 à E175 à 4Q06 E190 à 4Q07 E195 à 4Q08 C e r t i f i e d ANAC FAA EASA • Kit provides a fly-by-wire function to allow the use of multi-function spoilers as lift/drag devices. • 650 nm range Certification: Dec/06
  • 37. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. E-Jets Family Orderbook 36-764036EMBRAER 195 292 220 3 33 Firm Backlog 163897442455Total 33539286253EMBRAER 190 1922-22EMBRAER 175 111260116144EMBRAER 170 DeliveriesTotalOptions Firm Orders (as of June 30, 2006)
  • 39. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025) Worldwide Jet Deliveries by Capacity Segment 18,13518,135 10,18510,185 7,9507,950 3,4503,450 2,9502,950 1,5501,550 20062006 -- 20252025 790790 610610 180180 8888 6565 2727 US$ BiUS$ Bi 4,6004,6003,3503,3503030 -- 120120 1,9001,9001,5501,5509191 -- 120120 9,3809,380 4,7804,780 1,6501,650 1,0501,050 20162016 -- 20252025 8,7558,7553030 -- 180180 5,4055,405121121 -- 180180 1,3001,3006161 -- 9090 5005003030 -- 6060 20062006 -- 20152015SegmentSegment
  • 40. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. USA, Canada & Caribbean 7,735 43% Europe 3,825 21% China 1,785 10% Latin America 1,320 7% Africa 253 1% Asia Pacific 1,865 11% Middle East 392 2% Embraer Market Forecast (2006-2025) Projected Deliveries: 18,135 jets (30-180 seats) Russia & CIS 960 5%
  • 41. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT. 70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER70 airlines. 43 countries. 1 manufacturer. EMBRAER Thank youThank you