Rural Mechanisation: Why History matters

1. Rural Mechanisation: Why History matters
Stephen Biggs, SOAS, UK
&
Scott Justice, CIMMYT
Presentation prepared for the IFPRI-CIMMYT Workshop on
Agricultural Mechanization and South South Learning in
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on October 31 and November 1 2017.
..

2. Outline
• Introduction
• History of Academic policy debates, data collection
and analysis
• Historical Spread of mechanization in rural areas of
South Asia
– 10 Observations
• Ways Forward
– South Asia
– Genera Policy Analysis framework
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgments

3. History of academic policy debates,
data collection and analysis
Historical Time Line 1960s - 2017
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mid 1960s-mid 1980s
Open policy debates and data collection
Mid 1980s- Mid 2000s
Closing of debates and data collection
Mid-2000s - 2017
Revival of policy/
academic interest

4. Illustrations of the Literature in the
Early period (Mid 1960s-Mid 1980s)
• Agricultural and Industrial Inter-relationships in West Pakistan (Falcon,
1967)
• The green revolution: generation of problems (Falcon, 1970)
• Mechanization of small farms in Thailand and Malaysia by tractor hire
services (Chancellor, 1971)
• Changing machinery, technology and agricultural adjustment (Donaldson &
McInerney, (1973),
• Energy inputs and agricultural production under various regimes of
mechanization in northern India (Singh, G., & Chancellor. 1975).
• The Choice of Technology in Developing Countries (Timmer, Thomas, Wells
and Morawetz, 1975)
• Perrin, R. K., & Winkelmann, D. 1976. Impediments to technical progress
on small versus large farms (Perrin, R. K., & Winkelmann, D. 1976)

5. Illustrations of the Literature in the Early
period (Mid 1960s-Mid 1980s conti.
• Factor prices and methods of cultivation in Political Economy of
Agrarian Change (Griffin, 1979)
• Interlocking factor markets and agrarian development: a review
of issues (Bardhan, 1980)
• Overseas aid and the transfer of technology. A study of
agricultural mechanisation in Sri Lanka’ (Burch, 1980)
• Transitional trade and rural development. (Harriss, 1981)
• Farm power and employment in Asia (Farrington, Abeyratne &
Gill, 1982)
• Science, Politics and the Agricultural Revolution in Asia,
(Anderson, Brass, Levy, & Morrison, 1982.)
• The Sustainability of Mechanization in Thailand. Working Paper
No. 98, Consequences of Small Farm Mechanization Project.
(Chancellor, 1983)
• Agricultural Mechanisation: A comparative analysis (Binswanger,
1986)

6. Features of the Closing of debates and
data collection (Mid 1980s to Mid 2005)
• Closing of rural engineering departments in the International
Centres and other places Silsoe College in the UK, etc.
• Closing of data collection and the mechanization program in FAO
• Reduction of field research by economists and other social
scientist on rural mechanization changes
• Increased reliance on census data, national sample surveys, etc
that were often too aggregate, out of data, or did not collect data
relevant to understanding rapid changes taking place in patterns
of rural mechanization.
• Separation of different areas of rural engineering (water from
river and road transport, processing, harvesting, tillage, etc)
• Agricultural mechanization left out of agricultural and rural
development projects and planning

7. Revival of Debates and data collection
(Mid 2000s-2017)
Features of current policy debates
Contextual changes from the early (mid 1960s- Mid 1980s) period:
• Massive expansion of choice of techniques and institutions
• Major concern with energy policy and new alternative power
sources
• Role of global agricultural machinery MNC companies has grown
• Global trade in rural capital goods is now very large
• More concerns with drudgery reduction for rural workers
• Role of equitable rural economic development in national
development
• Role of migrant workers from rural areas in the local and global
economy
Current Agenda:
• Topics of this conference!

8. Historical Spread of mechanization in
rural areas of South Asia
We concentrate on the spread of smaller
engines and markets in services because:
1. This technology has made major
contributions to the intensification of
agriculture and other rural economic
activities
2. It continues to spread rapidly today
3. The role of smaller scale rural mechanization
and rural industrialization has been neglected
in the academic literature and policy debates

9. Observations on the experiences from
South Asia

10. Observation 1: diverse patterns of ag & rural
mechanization (Estimates for 2012)
Bangladesh India Nepal
Energy
Source
No
Units
Total hp
% of
total
hp
No. units Total hp
% of
total
hp
No.
units
Total hp
% of total
hp
2WTs* 500,000 7,500,000 53% 300,000 4,500,000 2% 16,000 240,000 13%
4Wts** 35,000 460,000 3% 3,500,000 122,500,000 55% 30,000 900,000 51%
Irrigation
shallow tube
well pump
Diesel ***
1.2 M 6,000,000 42% 9,000,000 45,000,000 20% 120,000 600,000 34%
Irrigation
pumpsets
Electric****
100,000 200,000 1% 12,000,000 48,000,000 21% 10,000 40,000 2%
Total 14,160,000 100%
220,000,000
100% 1,780,000 100%
Estimates of the numbers of power sources (and their horsepower ratings) used primarily in agricultural and processing uses, including
groundwater irrigation pumps. It does not for example include the many engines used in Bangladesh to power riverboats, rice mills,
processing, etc, although these are a major part of the Bangladesh agriculture and rural economy
* Average of 14 hp per 2-wheel tractors (2WT
** Average of 30 hp per 4-wheel tractor
*** Diesel / petrol irrigation pumpsets are average 5 hp. 5 – 10 % of the pumpsets are petrol/kerosene
**** Average electric tubewell is 4 HP

11. Observations2: Long history of diverse “South-
South” trade in rural capital goods and growth
of different local rural capital goods industries

12. • South Asia has a long history of South
South exchanges in trade in small scale
“good enough” equipment
– Chinese pumpsets in Bangladesh
(1980s) followed by 2 Wheel tractors
– Nepal: 2WTs from Japan (1970s) Korea
(1980s) and China (1990 – present)
– Chinese and now Vietnamese 2WTs
into Sri Lanka
– Recently Chinese small scale
equipment coming into India and
Nepal in last 10 years
– Vietnam: small engines from USA to
Vietnam
– Axial flow pumps from Thailand to
Bangladesh (2013)
Observations 2 Examples “South-
South” trade in rural capital goods

13. Examples of agro sales,
manufacturing and repair
industries
– Examples Nuwakot Nepal
– Hikarie Sales Agency in
Sri Lanka and
– Rajkot, India mini-4WT
factory
Illustrations of rural capital goods
industries

14. Observation 3. Diversity of equipment in use in the
same geographic area:
Example Harvesting
• Two types of harvesting in the
same village in Odisha, India
• One a Small tractor driven
combine
• The other is 2WT reaper
• Both owned by rural
entrepreneurs selling
harvesting services
• Both very satisfied with their
investment in machinery and
selling services

15. 12,000 “Good Enough”
Chinese Mini Tillers(MT) in
hills of Nepal
– Where avg life of MT is 3
years but total pay back
costs in 1-2 years.
– Many of these small
machines operate in the
same village but by HHs
in different economic /
social cicumstances
Observation 3. Diversity of equipment in use in the
same geographic area: Example Tillage

16. Observation 4
The same engines provide power
for different operations

17. Small machinery used for
agriculture purposes in Bangladesh

18. Observation 5: Field water management by
small engines is often a central condition
for other areas of rural mechanisation

19. Observation 6. Informal R&D in the rural
economic workplace: a central source of
technology innovation
• Bangladesh: Engines
jumping from shallow
tube wells to boats in
1980s
• Ubiquitous Layflat pipes
on the Gangetic plains
• Vietnam: Engines jumping
from pumps to long tail
boats back to Axial flow
pumps in 1960s (D. Biggs)
• Bamboo tubewells and
the pumps service
markets in Bihar in the
1970s

20. Observation 7: Some rural mechanisation
technology spread very rapidly
• Recent spread of (petrol & diesel)
mini-tillers in Nepal (last five years
from virtually 0 to over 15,000 in
20017 )
• Recent spread of electric battery
powered three wheelers in
Bangladesh (estimates of 50,000 )
and Nepal (estimates of 15,000 )
during last 6 years.
• Smaller combines from China spread
rapidly in Sri Lanka from hundreds in
2009 to 12,000 in 2017 (See
Abeyratne 2017, Samarasinghe 2017).

21. Observation 8: Hotspots and
Corridors
• We see there are often hotspots, cluster and
corridors in the early spread of small engines
and equipment

22. In South Asia the Importance of markets for
providing agro-machinery inputs and
services
• Water markets (STWs and LLPs) in Bihar,
Bangladesh and Thailand
• Two and four wheel tractor tillage in Sri
Lanka and Bangladesh
• Transport services in Nepal
• Well diggers providing shallow tube well
drilling services in India, Nepal
Bangladesh
Observation 9: Markets in “powered”
services have always been present- and are
expanding with new equipment
Bangladesh 1980s
Nepal
2003
Bangladesh
1991

23. (Continued) Observation 9 Markets: Comments
and Questions
• See literature of Chancellor in the 1960s and 1970s, Hayami &
Otsuka,1993, Mandall, 1980s)
• Smaller scale rural entrepreneurs providing engine services,
without official “land consolidation“, land levelling, etc. have led
to economic growth in rural areas.
• Explains why small holders are persisting and growing in some
South Asia countries (Rigg).
• Explains why agricultural productivity in Bangladesh is increasing
while size of holding is declining. (Mandal’s “economic holding”
is the relevant unit rather than the “small farm”.
• Explains why small holders are more efficient than larger
holdings in Nepal (recent WB report in Nepal)
• Research needed to investigate whether monopoly rents are
being charged by small scale rural entrepreneurs for services?

24. (Continued) Observation 9 Markets: Comments
and Questions
• Is there privilege access in service markets for smaller
engines? (Literature on water markets in Bangladesh )
• How is price setting achieved?
• Is smaller engine service provision more efficient,
better or worse than alternative institutional models
for service provision.
• Two major goals of national economic policy.
– Sources of finance for smaller engines and equipment
generally come family savings (therefore mobilizing
domestic savings for investment in productive equipment).
– When bought on hire purchase, loans appear to be repaid.
• Perhaps the spread of smaller scale machinery and
service markets is leading to more efficient and
equitable rural and national economic growth.

25. Observation 10. Effects of Government
Policies and Donor projects
• Government policies and donor projects have
played a central role in the spread of different
patterns of rural mechanisation in South Asia
• To understand the spread of engines and
markets in services, it is always necessary to
investigate the role government and other
actors in the economic change.
• We say no more as this is the main topic of
this workshop.

26. Ways Forward
South Asia
• Revival of Macro Leontief economic policy analysis, with
emphasis on the disaggregation of inter sector linkages in
rural areas (Falcon 1969).
• Revival of field studies in rural areas by economists and
engineers. (For examples cost effective studies of rural
entrepreneurs who provide custom services, and studies of
other small and medium and rural entrepreneurs (Chancellor
on service provision 1971).
• Support pragmatic contemporary, field based rural energy
accounting analysis (Singh and Chancellor 1975)
• Promotion of professional collaboration between economics
and engineering in teaching, field work, data collection and
policy analysis.

27. Ways forward
General: Policy Analysis Framework
1. The importance of the location and time specific
context for the role of rural mechanisation in
national planning.
2. Cost effective and timely data collection and
analysis for current policy use.
3. Figure for the analysis of Interest and lobby
groups that influence patterns of rural
mechanization and rural industrialization.

28. Interest and Lobby groups influencing rural
mechanization policies, projects and
practices
Local smaller
and larger
scale farming
and capital
goods lobby
groups.
Culture of
Multinational
Agricultural
Machinary
Companies/
local
subsidaries
Alternative rural
mechanization
and rural
industrialisation
patterns in
National
economic growth
Culture and
Bureaucratic
Structures and
budgets of local
Ministries/banks and
of donors/Int. Banks
Culture and budgets of
Local and Int.
Academic/research
interest groups
(University depts.,
Thinks tanks, Research
Centres)

29. Concluding Remarks

30. Thank you

31. Acknowledgements
• GoN, NAMEA, Andrew McDonald, Gokul
Poudel and other CiMMYT, Nepal colleagues
• Colleagues Sri Lanka: Melvin Samarasinghe and
Fred Abeyratne
• CSISA BD, Sattar Mandal, Murdoch U., and
other Bangladesh colleagues
• IFPRI South South Colleagues
• FACASI Colleagues
• CSISA and BISA India and IRMA colleagues