SXSW 2017: How Do You Keep Your Company Human in 2030
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From the cubicles of “Office Space” to the culture of “Silicon Valley,” hard work went into building companies where team members are valued and don’t feel like cogs in a corporate machine. But what happens when machines start replacing them? In the foreseeable future, the unprecedented rate of technological progress in AI, digitalization, AR/VR, and automation will once again force us to reimagine the definition of meaningful work. Every aspect of companies, from their culture to how they connect with customers, is going to be challenged. Avoid “cog culture” - join us to learn what to do now to safeguard your company for decades to come.
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SXSW 2017: How Do You Keep Your Company Human in 2030
- 1. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw How Do You Keep Your Company Human in 2030? @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw
- 2. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw@helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Answer: Hire people.
- 3. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw AI • Machine Learning • Robotics Automation • Market forces Competitive advantage • Costs Big data superpower • Capital efficiencies • Knowledge/team to implement • Labor augmentation Legal/regulation implications Production/ operation efficiencies NotthatEasy
- 4. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Helen Todd Sociality Squared @helenstravels @Sociality2 Shane Mac Assist @shanemac @assist Michael Friedl Advantage Austria @mfriedl_nyc (tw) @Austria_in_US Joshua March Conversocial @joshuamarch @Conversoical #madebyhumans #sxsw
- 5. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Visit: http://sli.do Enter: #madebyhumans
- 6. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw PollQuestions Who is afraid of losing their livelihood to machines? • No: I’m 100% confident my job is safe • Not really: It most likely won’t impact me • No Opinion • Kind of: It will likely impact me, but not substantially • Yes: I’m terrified that my job is replaceable by machines
- 7. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw PollQuestions • What percentage of the current jobs in your company will be replaced by machines? • 5% • 25% • 50% • 75% • 95%
- 8. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Economists forecast the likelihood of wage earners who will lose their jobs to automation are: • 4% $40 per hour or more • 31% Up to $40 per hour • 83% $20 per hour or less Economic Report of the President, Feb 2016
- 9. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Assumptions • We’re on the precipice of the most disruptive and transformative change in technological progress we’ve ever experienced before. • It’s coming despite populism shifts and whether or not you are prepared for it. • Everyone in this audience will be impacted by it. • AI, automation, and robotics will replace jobs. • AI, automation, and robotics will create new job opportunities. • Some humans don’t do well with change. • Not all of us are doing meaningful work now. • Humans are valuable.
- 10. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw 2004 service economy 2017 knowledge economy 2030 ??? economy #madebyhumans #sxsw
- 11. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Rate of Acceleration @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw
- 12. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw@helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw The Goal Meaningful Work?
- 13. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Two Outcomes Dystopian • AI Takes Over Humans • Increased Wealth Gap • Cog work and/or no work • Worst-case capitalism: Work more, paid less, worse work/life balance • Value of human work decreases; labor force will get cheaper as jobs disappear Utopian • AI + Humans = Better • All Rise • Meaningful work and/or universal income • Post-capitalism: Don’t have to work -> Move to just creating/philosophizing • Value of human work increases #madebyhumans #sxsw
- 14. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Stakeholders • Government • Company Shareholders, Partners, Employees, Algorithm • Media • Society • Family • Individual
- 15. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Humanity in Your Company Internal • Company Culture Location, Company Structure, Team, Etc. • Brand/Marketing • Customer Service • Policy engagement External • Perception • Tech • Environment • Migration • Aging Population • Politics & Economic Policies • Trade • Competition #madebyhumans #sxsw
- 16. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Does humanity matter?
- 17. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw $$$ #madebyhumans #sxsw Value-sharing over the bottom line
- 18. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Training/Re-education • Absolutely crucial • Current education system isn’t equipped • Who’s responsibility? • No one / market forces • Government • Companies • Philanthropists / Non-profit • Family
- 19. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw • Embrace – Embrace AI, but don’t try to move too fast • E.g. Start with scheduling app – Think augment • Evaluate – Your company, values, and brand; how will this impact your company? Decide how you will approach. • Educate – Plan to retrain – yourself, your company – Integrate learning into your company culture • Invest – Hire with inclusiveness in mind. Invest in diversity of thought, location, background, etc. • Structure – What’s your organizational structure going to be? H • Adapt – Be open to a change, externally and internally Prepare
- 20. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Questions?
- 21. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Please rate us!
- 22. @helenstravels @shanemac @mfriedl_nyc @joshuamarch #madebyhumans #sxsw Thank you!
Notas del editor
- https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/anrep_e/wtr08-2b_e.pdf The first episode began around the mid-19th century and ended with the commencement of World War I (WWI). The second episode began in the aftermath of World War II (WWII) and continues today. In both these episodes of globalization, rapid trade and output growth went together with major shifts in the relative size of the economies involved. One valuable lesson from history is that globalization has not been a smooth process. It has often been marked by periods of accelerated integration (as observed in the 19th century and in the second half of the 20th century) and by periods of dramatic reversals (as in the inter-war period) sometimes with costly consequences. This is a great resource: https://www.accenture.com/t20170206T005353__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF-33/Accenture-Why-AI-is-the-Future-of-Growth.PDF#zoom=50
- How many jobs are predicted to vbe Alts: How human will your company will be in 2030? Are you ready for the new economy that’s coming? Will you part of your company in 2030?
- How many jobs are predicted to vbe Alts: How human will your company will be in 2030? Are you ready for the new economy that’s coming? Will you part of your company in 2030?
- https://www.accenture.com/us-en/artificial-intelligence-index?gclid=COqygu7LwNICFcWFswodVQIKWA&c=tek_usaify17psgs&n=AI_-_US&s_kwcid=AL!5115!3!171095032440!p!!g!!ai&ef_id=VrKSKgAABCu-TiQ1:20170306001147:s Other quote Our [Accenture] research shows that by 2035, AI could double annual growth rates in 12 developed countries by changing the nature of work and creating a new relationship between man and machine
- If you look at ATMs - replaced bank tellers HOWEVER created more jobs
- Address: Where we are What’s coming – we’re discussing a revolution that’s COMING What are you going to do? Sources: https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2014/12/tech-from-10-years-ago-blogging-bluetooth-and-the.html http://www2.technologyreview.com/news/402435/10-emerging-technologies-that-will-change-your/ Universal Translation Synthetic Biology Nanowires T-Rays Distributed Storage RNAi Interference Power Grid Control Microfluidic Optical Fibers Bayesiam Machine Learning Personal Genomics http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/ces-2017-the-hottest-new-gadgets-from-the-worlds-biggest-tech-show/articleshow/56431759.cms 2004 iPod (pre-iPhone) MySpace Most Popular Facebook Launched 2005 Internet passed 1B Users Twitter, YouTube, Google Maps didn’t exist Broadband was being more widely adopted Motorola RAZR V3 Bluetooth: Future of wireless DVR was disrupting TV Skype introduced Satellite radio “Blogging” became a word “Convergence” big idea Nanowires is breakthrough tech Bayesian Machine Learning Distributed Storage (e.g. KaZaA music sharing) 2017 Internet Users Mobile Phone users: Facebook Blockchain growing Self-driving cars Wearables IoT A LAPTOP POWERED BY A SMARTPHONE Commerical Space Industry Crytocurrencies –bitcoin more valuable than gold Lynx, the world's first videoenabled humanoid robot powered by Amazon's Alexa Deep learning 2030 Type of economy: we don’t know: data, concept, not sure? (survival economy) Robots AI Commercial Space Industry Genetic Code Data Raw Material Global “neural network” Shifts in economies: non-monetary; not represented in GDP; global currencies Predictions by Kurzweils (https://singularityhub.com/2015/01/26/ray-kurzweils-mind-boggling-predictions-for-the-next-25-years/): By the late 2010s, glasses will beam images directly onto the retina. Ten terabytes of computing power (roughly the same as the human brain) will cost about $1,000. - By the 2020s, most diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human eating can be replaced by nanosystems. The Turing test begins to be passable. Self-driving cars begin to take over the roads, and people won’t be allowed to drive on highways. By the 2030s, virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real. We will be able to upload our mind/consciousness by the end of the decade.
- <1 – General - Josh: Tech evolves exponentially; Moore’s Law – 100x difference over the 100 years; our brains think linearly, not exponentially> 1) When it comes to history, we think in straight lines. When we imagine the progress of the next 30 years, we look back to the progress of the previous 30 as an indicator of how much will likely happen. When we think about the extent to which the world will change in the 21st century, we just take the 20th century progress and add it to the year 2000. This was the same mistake our 1750 guy made when he got someone from 1500 and expected to blow his mind as much as his own was blown going the same distance ahead. It’s most intuitive for us to think linearly, when we should be thinking exponentially. If someone is being more clever about it, they might predict the advances of the next 30 years not by looking at the previous 30 years, but by taking the current rate of progress and judging based on that. They’d be more accurate, but still way off. In order to think about the future correctly, you need to imagine things moving at a much faster rate than they’re moving now. Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI (AI that’s at least as intellectually capable as a human, across the board) Kurzweil believes computers will reach AGI by 2029 and that by 2045, we’ll have not only ASI, but a full-blown new world—a time he calls the singularity. His AI-related timeline used to be seen as outrageously overzealous, and it still is by many,6 but in the last 15 years, the rapid advances of ANI systems have brought the larger world of AI experts much closer to Kurzweil’s timeline. His predictions are still a bit more ambitious than the median respondent on Müller and Bostrom’s survey (AGI by 2040, ASI by 2060), but not by that much. Kurzweil’s depiction of the 2045 singularity is brought about by three simultaneous revolutions in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and, most powerfully, AI. Armed with superintelligence and all the technology superintelligence would know how to create, ASI would likely be able to solve every problem in humanity. Global warming? ASI could first halt CO2 emissions by coming up with much better ways to generate energy that had nothing to do with fossil fuels.
- 1930 – Josh’s 15 hours John something kings Shane: Value being part of something more value (hidden figures); work is a new notion – puritan <Shane Jey to speak to this slide> Shareholders – go beyond the beyond the bottom line. How do we (as biz owners) do create meaningful work? We still have to employee humans to have an economy ----- How do we find meaningfulness in our work? US: Live to work; International: Work to live Puritan: work ethic instilled into US group consciousness How do we currently value humans? Retirees = worthless - no?
- Core debate point: Josh: Gary Kasparov, after being beaten by deep blue, set up a new type of chess tournament ('freestyle chess') where the players are human+machine. It turns out that a *good* chess player who's really good at working with a chess program is actually better than either a grandmaster or a chess program alone. Despite automation, we are working more than ever before. This bodes the question, how will we define work? How will we derive meaningfulness in work? Romans in their forums
- Here? - Go is this where may mention that politics could actually hold back automation? e.g. states may not allow self driving cars without drivers because of fear of job loss. Or there could be a robot tax when a company fires someone and replaces with a robot (kind of proposed by bill gates just recently -- could be a good image / call out) Interconnected: algorithms need the people and data from people. Really good: https://www.slideshare.net/webgoddesscathy/don-tapscotts-new-solutions-for-a-connected-planet-mars-global-leadership
- Chief cultural officer Chief AI officer What’s your organizational structure going to be? Add a Chief AI or Cultural officer? Does this matter to your company from a brand, customer service, competitive, and/or? What happens when robots start replacing workers? How do you keep your team happy? How do we derive meaningfulness in work? Or will we seek it elsewhere? Who’s responsibility is it to retrain? Look after those who lose jobs? Here? - Go is this where may mention that politics could actually hold back automation? e.g. states may not allow self driving cars without drivers because of fear of job loss. Or there could be a robot tax when a company fires someone and replaces with a robot (kind of proposed by bill gates just recently -- could be a good image / call out)
- Jey: speak to history of branding Right now very lifestyle-oriented of a brand fitting into a person’s life Very person-centric/individualistic Also, if it’s quicker and better to use a machine, humans will migrate over (e.g. banks/atms + self check-out grocery lines) Find: Car companies are investing in US; HOWEVER, investing in machines to make cars. Find some stats around this. Technology brings more efficiencies for companies, but as teams are replaced with them, how do you keep the team that remains happy?
- Taxes, Stock, Salary, Price Will you take on narrower profit margins for your VALUES? ?? Brand encompasses labor force, product, demand, company culture VALUES!!!
- Really good: https://www.slideshare.net/webgoddesscathy/don-tapscotts-new-solutions-for-a-connected-planet-mars-global-leadership Who’s responsibility is it to retrain? Look after those who lose jobs? C-Level Business Owner/Entreprenuer/Soloprenuer In the workforce
- Chief AI, Chief Cultural Officer Meaningfulness may come from outside of the workplace Find a home for: “How do we create AI to augment the human capability. Enhance the human experience?” -Satya Nadelli, Microsoft CEO at the Aspen Ideas Festival 2016
- Behind AI is humans who code. Humans are not perfect. What we create is not perfect. This will not always be the case. AI will surpass need for human interaction.