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“ Regional Economic Growth in North America: the Effects of the Renegotiation of the NAFTA Agreement”   Alejandro Díaz-Bautista,  Ph.D.   Professor of Economics and Researcher at  Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF) Visiting Research Fellow ,  Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UCSD.  adiazbau@hotmail.com  March 13, 2009, 11:15 - 11:45 Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City.
Introduction to NAFTA ,[object Object],[object Object]
Renegotiation of NAFTA ,[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Integration:  Classical Theory ,[object Object],[object Object]
HOS Model: Gains from Trade
CGE Models: Gains from Trade ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
CGE NAFTA Studies  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Trade Creation ,[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction to Economic Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Levels of Economic Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Arguments Surrounding Economic Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
European Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
European Integration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Integration in Europe ,[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Integration Literature in Europe ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
European Union ,[object Object],[object Object]
North American Economic Integration ,[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Integration in North America ,[object Object],[object Object]
Economic Synchronization Between Mexico and the U.S. ,[object Object],[object Object]
North American Economic Integration and Industry Location  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FDI and Regional Economic Growth considering the Distance to the Northern Border of Mexico   ,[object Object]
FDI and Regional Economic Growth  ,[object Object],[object Object]
FDI and Economic Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Puyana Mutis, Alicia (2007), “Mexican Economic Reforms. The Project, the Realities.” FLACSO-México Working Paper Series.   ,[object Object]
NAFTA increased Trade in North America ,[object Object],[object Object]
Source: BANXICO Billon Dollars 250.3 60.9 +311% Mexico’s Total Exports (billion Dollars) The leading exporter in Latin America and the third largest exporter to the US
FDI in the NAFTA Region ,[object Object],[object Object]
In 2006, approximately 38% ($3.9 billion) of U.S. investment in Mexico was directed to the 6 Mexican border states.
Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source: BANXICO Flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Mexico. S econd largest in the world amongst developing countries. Mexico’s FDI Period 95-00 01-06 FDI Total 77.0 111.8 FDI  Average 12.8 18.9
 
Economic Growth ,[object Object]
Economic Growth Models ,[object Object],[object Object]
New Growth Theory ,[object Object],[object Object]
Center Periphery and distance ,[object Object],[object Object]
Derivation of the Model with FDI and Regional Economic Growth   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sources of Information   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Econometric Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Econometric Results ,[object Object],[object Object]
Griswold (2004) “After 10 Years, NAFTA Continues to Pay Dividends”, Cato Institute  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Agustín Escobar y Susan Martin (Coords.), Mexico - U.S. Migration Management: A Binational Approach (2008). Forthcoming. ,[object Object],[object Object]
10 AÑOS. DEL TLCAN  ,[object Object],[object Object]
NAFTA’s Impact on Mexico at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación Mexico’s Border Market Geography ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación Market Integration Agrifood Products  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NAFTA’s Impact on Canada at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NAFTA at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Nafta’s Economic Impact at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Nafta’s Economic Impact at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Nafta’s Economic Impact at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economic comparison of output (NAFTA and the EU)  ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
NAFTA at 14  The second largest trade bloc in the World in terms of production, behind the European Union   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NAFTA’s Trade Impact at 14 ,[object Object],[object Object]
NAFTA Trade ,[object Object]
NAFTA’s impact on the U.S. labor market ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
NAFTA’s impact on the U.S. labor market ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Mexico’s Maquila Balance with China ,[object Object]
U.S. Unemployment during NAFTA ,[object Object]
Economic Integration in North America ,[object Object],[object Object]
Aspe et al. (2005), “Building a North American Community”  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Security and Prosperity Partnership  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SPP Timeline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
NAFTA at 15: Requires a New North American Model ,[object Object]
 
 
Container Traffic Increase ,[object Object]
President Obama on NAFTA ,[object Object],[object Object]
More Dialogue on the Future of NAFTA ,[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions: Mexico and Canada’s Position ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object]
“ Regional Economic Growth in North America: the Effects of the Renegotiation of the NAFTA Agreement”   Alejandro Díaz-Bautista,  Ph.D.   Professor of Economics and Researcher at  Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF) Visiting Research Fellow ,  Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UCSD.  adiazbau@hotmail.com  March 13, 2009, 11:15 - 11:45 Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City.
References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
 

Dr. Alejandro Diaz Bautista, Nafta Renegotiation, NAFTA at 15, UAM Economics Conference 2009.

  • 1. “ Regional Economic Growth in North America: the Effects of the Renegotiation of the NAFTA Agreement” Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Researcher at Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF) Visiting Research Fellow , Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UCSD. adiazbau@hotmail.com March 13, 2009, 11:15 - 11:45 Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City.
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  • 27. Source: BANXICO Billon Dollars 250.3 60.9 +311% Mexico’s Total Exports (billion Dollars) The leading exporter in Latin America and the third largest exporter to the US
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  • 29. In 2006, approximately 38% ($3.9 billion) of U.S. investment in Mexico was directed to the 6 Mexican border states.
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  • 31. Source: BANXICO Flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Mexico. S econd largest in the world amongst developing countries. Mexico’s FDI Period 95-00 01-06 FDI Total 77.0 111.8 FDI Average 12.8 18.9
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  • 83. “ Regional Economic Growth in North America: the Effects of the Renegotiation of the NAFTA Agreement” Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Researcher at Colegio de la Frontera Norte (COLEF) Visiting Research Fellow , Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UCSD. adiazbau@hotmail.com March 13, 2009, 11:15 - 11:45 Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City.
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Notas del editor

  1. .
  2. “ [The goal of this slide is to put in perspective the size, population and economic power of the border states’ region]” In the 10 states of the Mexico-U.S. border region, we have a population of 92 million, which represent almost 1/4 of the combined populations of both countries. In this sense, one fourth of the population in each country is directly more influenced by the neighboring country’s culture.
  3. “ [The goal of this slide is to share the impact NAFTA has had on the Market Integration]” During the first 13 years of NAFTA, Mexican agrifood exports to the US have grown 129%, while US agrifood exports to Mexico have increased 189%. As can be seen in the chart, US and Mexico agrifood trade maintains a positive growth rate.