Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea

1. Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring
and forecasting: the case of UA and MD
Review climate-zoning and mapping of
drought risk areas in Ukraine and Dniester
river basin
(Milestone 3)
Activity number 5.6
Activity Leaders:
Tetiana Adamenko - Ukraine
Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova
3rd IDMP CEE Workshop
Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014

2. Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and
forecasting: the case of UA and MD
Review climate-zoning and mapping of drought
risk areas in Ukraine and Dniester river basin
(Milestone 3)
Activity number 5.6
Activity Leaders:
Tetiana Adamenko - Ukraine
Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova
3rd IDMP CEE Workshop
Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014

3. • UA: Analysis of precipitation for different seasons in real climate and standard
climatic period. annual sum of precipitation didn’t change or slightly increased.
Review of the agro-climate zoning of the UA territory by using Selyaninov's
hydrothermal coefficients (HTCs)
• Zoning of the territory of Ukraine in terms of soil humidity change trends (HTC
based)
• Mapping of new ACZ for Ukraine territory for periods of active crops vegetation:
May-September - HTC 5-9, and May-June - HTC 5-6. Data on precipitation and sum
of temperatures of 180 HMStations were used.
• Comparison of indices: HTC and SPI.
• SPI was firstly applied by Ukrhydromet service for drought assessments in Ukraine due to
IDMP . SPI comparison with traditional other drought indexes shown its efficiency especially for
assessment of humidity in cold seasons.
• MD. Preparing of the maps for agro-climatic zoning of the Dnster river basin with identification
of 10 regions on the of main climatic factors
• Preparing of the guide for farmers and maps for publishing
• Developing and comparison of the HTC and SPI indices for the Moldavian part of the Dnester
basin
• Consultation meetings with rural authorities on expectations from the project and its
implementation
Progress Report

4. Spatial HTC (ГТК) distribution for May - September periods (1961-2013)

5. the Dniester basin surface
constitutes 68,627 km2 and
the hydrographic basin area
is 72,100 km ². The
coordinates of the Source
are 46 ° 21'N 30 ° 14’E and
at the Mouth - 46 ° 18'13.26
"N 30 ° 16'24.19". The
difference in altitude
represents 1,000 m.

7. Bravicea
Briceni
Baltata
Chisinau
Cornesti
Cahul
Comrat
Camenca
Dubasari
Falesti
Leova
Soroca
Tiraspol
Stefan Voda
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
CHT = R /
0.1T>10 C
0.9

8. Spatial distribution of active
temperatures sums varies
between mountain and pre-
mountain territories from 800
to 26000C. Within plateau and
lowland areas they range from
2700-38000C, essentially
enlarging the spectrum of
cultivation of different crop
groups. The most significant
values ​​(36000C- 38000C) are
recorded in the extreme
southeast of the basin. Thus,
within the plateau and lowland
areas there are 9000C and
spatial differences match
entirely with those highlighted
for the Republic of Moldova,
which can greatly influence to
the diversifying the range crop
cultivation.
Cartographic Modelling of active
air temperatures sums within the
Dniester Basin

9. Cartographic Modelling of
atmospheric precipitation sums
within the Dniester Basin
Cartographic
Modelling of
atmospheric
precipitation sums
within the Dniester
basin reveals that
they vary in the
territory from 300-
400mm to 700-750
mm. In most part the
plateau and plain
territories where the
sum of active
temperatures is
suitable for the
development of a
large range of crops
annual atmospheric
precipitation
constitutes 500-
550mm

10. One of the main indicators
of the wintering
conditions is the absolute
minimum of the
year because its values
characterize favorability
multiannual crops wintering.
Thus, in intramontane
depressions, the average of
the absolute minimum of
the year calculated for the
period 1980-2013 ranges
from-28-240C, in mountain
and pre-mountain regions it
is -23-210C, and within
plateau and plain regions
this agro-climatic index
constitutes -20-160C

12. Agro-climatic zoning of the territory (Republic of Moldova
and Ukraine) included within the Dniester Basin

13. Agro-climatic zoning of territory (Republic of Moldova and Ukraine)
included in the Dniester Basin delimits the plateau and plain
areas following agro-climatic zones or districts:
I agro-climatic zone (code 1)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of
active temperatures 2700 0C, 624mm - sum of annual atmospheric
precipitation, and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -
22,10C.
II agro-climatic zone (code 5)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of
active temperatures 2916 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of
584mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -21,00C.
III agro-climatic zone (code 9)- is characterized in the territory by the sum
of active temperatures 3060 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation
of 567mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -20,40C.
IV agro-climatic zone (code 4)- is characterized in the territory by the sum
of active temperatures 3275 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation
of 535mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -19,10C.
V agro-climatic zone (code 3)- is characterized in the territory by the sum
of active temperatures 33310C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of
525 mm 567mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -
18,80C.

14. Cartographic Modelling of
the Standardized Index of
Atmospheric Precipitation, in
July 2007
SPI Values Ratings SPI
0,99 < SPI <-0,99 Normal period
-1,0 < SPI < -1,49 Moderate Drought
-1,5 < SPI <-1,99 Severe Drought
SPI < -2,0 Extreme Drought
Ratings of the Standardized Index of
Atmospheric Precipitation (SPI)

15. Izu Values Izu Ratings
0,1-1,0 Normal period
1,1-2,0 Moderate dry period
2,1-3,0 Significant dry period
3,1-4,0 Hazardous dry period
>4,1 Exceptional dry period
Cartographic modelling of Nedealcov
Index of Dry Periods (Izu) in the year
2007
Ratings of
Nedealcov Index
of Dry Periods
(Izu)
( )
( )
V VIII
V VIII
zu
Izu
Xzu




As an indicator
of „dry days” is
T of the air
higher 25C)
and low relative
air humidity
(U30%).

16. Thus, over the territory of the Republic of Moldova the productivity of cereals (maize) and
industrial crops (sunflower) was the lowest for the last 53 years (1960-2012), namely due
to long dry period installation during the months May - August that conditioned a low
productivity of these crops. Winter wheat yield recorded in 2007 also was one of the
lowest, ranking the fourth place among the years with the lowest yields. We note that the
wheat grain in most part of the territory taken under study was extremely crumbly

17. Consultation meetings with local authorities
• Meetings were organized in rural localities with
representatives:
- Rural public authorities (mayors of the localities,
members of local councils etc)
- Farmers
- Civil society
- Sectoral authorities (agricultural, environmental
inspectorates, water units, forests
- International projects on development of rural
infrastructure (implemented in Moldova)
Total around 100 persons took part in regional consultation
meetings

18. Main goal of the consultations
• Identification of priorities and options for the adaptation
of actual practices for rural development in regard to the
climate change issues in the region and present options
for management of the droughts in order to reduce
impacts of these events on agricultural and other
sectoral activities.

20. Main expectations of rural authorities
1. Attraction of best EU practices on moisture
conservation under different agricultural crops,
especially for multiannual plantations.
Cooperation with relevant authorities from EU
countries on local level for common
management of droughts in order to implement
best practices and mitigate climate change
impact on social and economic development in
rural communities and farming activities.

21. 2. Development of drought management adaptation planning program of
measures and practices for agricultural sector and other sectors of rural
economy to possible climate change in the region based on the results of
the studies performed in the Dnester region
3. Further development of local infrastructure, which could contribute to
moisture conservation: green carcasses, green agriculture, small irrigation
including the use for these purposes sewer waters from the network in
localities etc) and fertility of soils in the region.
4. Educational issues, including publishing of the guide, map of agroclimate
zonning etc and its presentation to different level of authorities and target
groups of population. Special attention was given to the opportunities for
erosion reduction as a significant tool for moisture conservation, especially
in the southern part of the country.

22. Main problems associated with the project development
• Poor coordination with UA part on organizing of common events with local
communities on joint drought management
• Local authorities are poor informed on mitigation of droughts and extreme
weather events in sectoral activities
• Bridging of the project outcomes with expectations of local communities and
theirs’ capacities in implementing of the results
• Resources for editing of the guide for farmers and agro-climatic zoning of
the Dnester river basin
Links with IDMP activities. Possible incorporation of achieved results from
forests (activity 5.2)to the Dnester basin
Incorporation of achieved results in river basin management plans, planning
documents for sectoral development.
Folow-up projects development of the Raut river management plan based on
the results of IDMP in regard to climate and land management

23. • UA. October 2014 – March 2015: upgrading existed models for drought
related harvest loses forecast for 2 crops winter wheat and spring barley
used by Ukr Hydrometcenter . The actual climatic characteristics , SPI and
other drought indexes will be applied for each crop and soil-climatic
zones at oblast level of Ukraine.
• Good practice preparation
• Awareness rising on IDM Planning and good practices results
• MD further upgading of existed models for main crops cultivated in
Moldova with the use of indices developed in the frame of the project
• Continuation of the consultation meetings with local authorities and thus
contribute to developing of drought management planning
• Rising of public awareness
• Organizing of the National Consultation event
Final output – as planned in the activity
Plans