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Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring
and forecasting: the case of UA and MD
Review climate-zoning and mapping of
drou...
Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and
forecasting: the case of UA and MD
Review climate-zoning and mapping of drou...
• UA: Analysis of precipitation for different seasons in real climate and standard
climatic period. annual sum of precipit...
Spatial HTC (ГТК) distribution for May - September periods (1961-2013)
the Dniester basin surface
constitutes 68,627 km2 and
the hydrographic basin area
is 72,100 km ². The
coordinates of the S...
Bravicea
Briceni
Baltata
Chisinau
Cornesti
Cahul
Comrat
Camenca
Dubasari
Falesti
Leova
Soroca
Tiraspol
Stefan Voda
0.7
0.8...
Spatial distribution of active
temperatures sums varies
between mountain and pre-
mountain territories from 800
to 26000C....
Cartographic Modelling of
atmospheric precipitation sums
within the Dniester Basin
Cartographic
Modelling of
atmospheric
p...
One of the main indicators
of the wintering
conditions is the absolute
minimum of the
year because its values
characterize...
Agro-climatic zoning of the territory (Republic of Moldova
and Ukraine) included within the Dniester Basin
Agro-climatic zoning of territory (Republic of Moldova and Ukraine)
included in the Dniester Basin delimits the plateau an...
Cartographic Modelling of
the Standardized Index of
Atmospheric Precipitation, in
July 2007
SPI Values Ratings SPI
0,99 < ...
Izu Values Izu Ratings
0,1-1,0 Normal period
1,1-2,0 Moderate dry period
2,1-3,0 Significant dry period
3,1-4,0 Hazardous ...
Thus, over the territory of the Republic of Moldova the productivity of cereals (maize) and
industrial crops (sunflower) w...
Consultation meetings with local authorities
• Meetings were organized in rural localities with
representatives:
- Rural p...
Main goal of the consultations
• Identification of priorities and options for the adaptation
of actual practices for rural...
Main expectations of rural authorities
1. Attraction of best EU practices on moisture
conservation under different agricul...
2. Development of drought management adaptation planning program of
measures and practices for agricultural sector and oth...
Main problems associated with the project development
• Poor coordination with UA part on organizing of common events with...
• UA. October 2014 – March 2015: upgrading existed models for drought
related harvest loses forecast for 2 crops winter wh...
Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietko...
Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietko...
Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietko...
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Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea

Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea

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Third IDMP CEE workshop: Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD by Anna Tsvietkova and Dumitru Drumea

  1. 1. Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD Review climate-zoning and mapping of drought risk areas in Ukraine and Dniester river basin (Milestone 3) Activity number 5.6 Activity Leaders: Tetiana Adamenko - Ukraine Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova 3rd IDMP CEE Workshop Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014
  2. 2. Upgrading agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting: the case of UA and MD Review climate-zoning and mapping of drought risk areas in Ukraine and Dniester river basin (Milestone 3) Activity number 5.6 Activity Leaders: Tetiana Adamenko - Ukraine Dr. Ecaterina Kuharuk – Moldova 3rd IDMP CEE Workshop Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014
  3. 3. • UA: Analysis of precipitation for different seasons in real climate and standard climatic period. annual sum of precipitation didn’t change or slightly increased. Review of the agro-climate zoning of the UA territory by using Selyaninov's hydrothermal coefficients (HTCs) • Zoning of the territory of Ukraine in terms of soil humidity change trends (HTC based) • Mapping of new ACZ for Ukraine territory for periods of active crops vegetation: May-September - HTC 5-9, and May-June - HTC 5-6. Data on precipitation and sum of temperatures of 180 HMStations were used. • Comparison of indices: HTC and SPI. • SPI was firstly applied by Ukrhydromet service for drought assessments in Ukraine due to IDMP . SPI comparison with traditional other drought indexes shown its efficiency especially for assessment of humidity in cold seasons. • MD. Preparing of the maps for agro-climatic zoning of the Dnster river basin with identification of 10 regions on the of main climatic factors • Preparing of the guide for farmers and maps for publishing • Developing and comparison of the HTC and SPI indices for the Moldavian part of the Dnester basin • Consultation meetings with rural authorities on expectations from the project and its implementation Progress Report
  4. 4. Spatial HTC (ГТК) distribution for May - September periods (1961-2013)
  5. 5. the Dniester basin surface constitutes 68,627 km2 and the hydrographic basin area is 72,100 km ². The coordinates of the Source are 46 ° 21'N 30 ° 14’E and at the Mouth - 46 ° 18'13.26 "N 30 ° 16'24.19". The difference in altitude represents 1,000 m.
  6. 6. Bravicea Briceni Baltata Chisinau Cornesti Cahul Comrat Camenca Dubasari Falesti Leova Soroca Tiraspol Stefan Voda 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 CHT = R / 0.1T>10 C 0.9
  7. 7. Spatial distribution of active temperatures sums varies between mountain and pre- mountain territories from 800 to 26000C. Within plateau and lowland areas they range from 2700-38000C, essentially enlarging the spectrum of cultivation of different crop groups. The most significant values ​​(36000C- 38000C) are recorded in the extreme southeast of the basin. Thus, within the plateau and lowland areas there are 9000C and spatial differences match entirely with those highlighted for the Republic of Moldova, which can greatly influence to the diversifying the range crop cultivation. Cartographic Modelling of active air temperatures sums within the Dniester Basin
  8. 8. Cartographic Modelling of atmospheric precipitation sums within the Dniester Basin Cartographic Modelling of atmospheric precipitation sums within the Dniester basin reveals that they vary in the territory from 300- 400mm to 700-750 mm. In most part the plateau and plain territories where the sum of active temperatures is suitable for the development of a large range of crops annual atmospheric precipitation constitutes 500- 550mm
  9. 9. One of the main indicators of the wintering conditions is the absolute minimum of the year because its values characterize favorability multiannual crops wintering. Thus, in intramontane depressions, the average of the absolute minimum of the year calculated for the period 1980-2013 ranges from-28-240C, in mountain and pre-mountain regions it is -23-210C, and within plateau and plain regions this agro-climatic index constitutes -20-160C
  10. 10. Agro-climatic zoning of the territory (Republic of Moldova and Ukraine) included within the Dniester Basin
  11. 11. Agro-climatic zoning of territory (Republic of Moldova and Ukraine) included in the Dniester Basin delimits the plateau and plain areas following agro-climatic zones or districts: I agro-climatic zone (code 1)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of active temperatures 2700 0C, 624mm - sum of annual atmospheric precipitation, and the average of the absolute minimum of the year - 22,10C. II agro-climatic zone (code 5)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of active temperatures 2916 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of 584mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -21,00C. III agro-climatic zone (code 9)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of active temperatures 3060 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of 567mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -20,40C. IV agro-climatic zone (code 4)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of active temperatures 3275 0C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of 535mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year -19,10C. V agro-climatic zone (code 3)- is characterized in the territory by the sum of active temperatures 33310C, sum of annual atmospheric precipitation of 525 mm 567mm and the average of the absolute minimum of the year - 18,80C.
  12. 12. Cartographic Modelling of the Standardized Index of Atmospheric Precipitation, in July 2007 SPI Values Ratings SPI 0,99 < SPI <-0,99 Normal period -1,0 < SPI < -1,49 Moderate Drought -1,5 < SPI <-1,99 Severe Drought SPI < -2,0 Extreme Drought Ratings of the Standardized Index of Atmospheric Precipitation (SPI)
  13. 13. Izu Values Izu Ratings 0,1-1,0 Normal period 1,1-2,0 Moderate dry period 2,1-3,0 Significant dry period 3,1-4,0 Hazardous dry period >4,1 Exceptional dry period Cartographic modelling of Nedealcov Index of Dry Periods (Izu) in the year 2007 Ratings of Nedealcov Index of Dry Periods (Izu) ( ) ( ) V VIII V VIII zu Izu Xzu     As an indicator of „dry days” is T of the air higher 25C) and low relative air humidity (U30%).
  14. 14. Thus, over the territory of the Republic of Moldova the productivity of cereals (maize) and industrial crops (sunflower) was the lowest for the last 53 years (1960-2012), namely due to long dry period installation during the months May - August that conditioned a low productivity of these crops. Winter wheat yield recorded in 2007 also was one of the lowest, ranking the fourth place among the years with the lowest yields. We note that the wheat grain in most part of the territory taken under study was extremely crumbly
  15. 15. Consultation meetings with local authorities • Meetings were organized in rural localities with representatives: - Rural public authorities (mayors of the localities, members of local councils etc) - Farmers - Civil society - Sectoral authorities (agricultural, environmental inspectorates, water units, forests - International projects on development of rural infrastructure (implemented in Moldova) Total around 100 persons took part in regional consultation meetings
  16. 16. Main goal of the consultations • Identification of priorities and options for the adaptation of actual practices for rural development in regard to the climate change issues in the region and present options for management of the droughts in order to reduce impacts of these events on agricultural and other sectoral activities.
  17. 17. Main expectations of rural authorities 1. Attraction of best EU practices on moisture conservation under different agricultural crops, especially for multiannual plantations. Cooperation with relevant authorities from EU countries on local level for common management of droughts in order to implement best practices and mitigate climate change impact on social and economic development in rural communities and farming activities.
  18. 18. 2. Development of drought management adaptation planning program of measures and practices for agricultural sector and other sectors of rural economy to possible climate change in the region based on the results of the studies performed in the Dnester region 3. Further development of local infrastructure, which could contribute to moisture conservation: green carcasses, green agriculture, small irrigation including the use for these purposes sewer waters from the network in localities etc) and fertility of soils in the region. 4. Educational issues, including publishing of the guide, map of agroclimate zonning etc and its presentation to different level of authorities and target groups of population. Special attention was given to the opportunities for erosion reduction as a significant tool for moisture conservation, especially in the southern part of the country.
  19. 19. Main problems associated with the project development • Poor coordination with UA part on organizing of common events with local communities on joint drought management • Local authorities are poor informed on mitigation of droughts and extreme weather events in sectoral activities • Bridging of the project outcomes with expectations of local communities and theirs’ capacities in implementing of the results • Resources for editing of the guide for farmers and agro-climatic zoning of the Dnester river basin Links with IDMP activities. Possible incorporation of achieved results from forests (activity 5.2)to the Dnester basin Incorporation of achieved results in river basin management plans, planning documents for sectoral development. Folow-up projects development of the Raut river management plan based on the results of IDMP in regard to climate and land management
  20. 20. • UA. October 2014 – March 2015: upgrading existed models for drought related harvest loses forecast for 2 crops winter wheat and spring barley used by Ukr Hydrometcenter . The actual climatic characteristics , SPI and other drought indexes will be applied for each crop and soil-climatic zones at oblast level of Ukraine. • Good practice preparation • Awareness rising on IDM Planning and good practices results • MD further upgading of existed models for main crops cultivated in Moldova with the use of indices developed in the frame of the project • Continuation of the consultation meetings with local authorities and thus contribute to developing of drought management planning • Rising of public awareness • Organizing of the National Consultation event Final output – as planned in the activity Plans

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