Johan Swinnen GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT GLOBAL LAUNCH EVENT - 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19 APR 13, 2021 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT

1. Johan Swinnen
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
April 13, 2021
Beyond the Pandemic
Transforming Food Systems after
COVID-19

2. Tools and resources
Agricultural Production
and Stocks Monitor
Visualizing production and
stocks of key crops at global
and country levels, with
comparisons to levels during
the 2008–2009 food price
crisis.
COVID-19 Food Price
Monitor
Providing daily updates of
food price movements in
wholesale and retail markets
in key countries in South Asia
and Africa south of the
Sahara.
COVID-19 Policy Response
Portal
Capturing policy responses
to the pandemic, including
population restrictions, social
protection, trade, health,
fiscal, and monetary
measures.
Food Trade Policy Tracker
Monitoring restrictions on
food exports and trade and
their impacts on food
imports.
TOOLS

3. Source: FAO 2020; Fan et al 2021
12.6
8.6
8.9
9.8
825.6
628.9
687.8
841.4
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030**
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (million)
The world is not on track to eliminate
hunger and malnutrition

4. -4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
GDP growth per capita
(annual %)
Low & middle income Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank 2020
Source: FAO 2020
Economic growth,
conflict, and food security
12.6
8.6
8.9
9.8
825.6
628.9
687.8
841.4
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030**
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Forcibly displaced
people worldwide

5. 3 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet
▪2 billion people with
micronutrient
deficiencies
▪Child malnutrition
▪ Stunting, wasting and
overweight at unacceptable
levels
Source: Heady et al 2020 Torero 2020.

6. Food system pressures planetary boundaries
Climate change reinforces this
4
6
2
8
1
1
14
5
11
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Energy
consumption (%)
GHG emissions
(%)
Share
of
global
total
(%)
Retail and food preparation
Processing and distribution
Fisheries production
Livestock production
Cropping production
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019
The global food system
consumes >30% of energy and
produces >20% of GHG emissions

7. COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition
Impact on Global NUTRITION
Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020
148
79
42
20%
23%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
40
80
120
160
World Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
Increase no. of poor (millions)
% increase poverty (RHS)
Impact on Global POVERTY

8. Prabhat Kumar Verma / Shutterstock.com
Poor people are disproportionately affected
1. Main asset is physical labor
2. Large share of income for food
3. More disruptions in food value chains –
since more labor-intensive
4. More affected by disruptions of public social
and nutrition programs
5. Less access to health services

9. 30.8
60.8
71.7
20.8
44.2
69.2
Poorest Middle Richest
Jan-Feb May
50
26.7 27.5
Poorest Middle Richest
COVID-19 impacts on inequality in food systems
Survey results from Ethiopia
Poor people suffer more
from INCOME declines
% of households that have much lower incomes
Source: Hirvonen et al. 2020; Tesfaye et al. 2020.
Poor people suffer more
from NUTRITION effects
% of households consuming dairy products

10. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13.3
16.7
12.2
12.6
16.8
10.7
14.0
16.5
15.0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
Increase in POVERTY
(% points
– average per month of lockdown)
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures

11. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13.3
16.7
12.2
12.6
16.8
10.7
14.0
16.5
15.0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
Increase in POVERTY
(% points
– average per month of lockdown)
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
-38%
-18% -14%
-29%
-92%
Total Agriculture Food services
Changes in GDP (%),
NIGERIA: 5-week lockdown

12. Gendered impacts of COVID-19
▪ Health measures affect women and men differently in
developing countries, particularly in rural areas
▪ Income shocks also have gendered impacts
▪ Impact on women’s empowerment and children’s
schooling could affect female labor force participation in
the next generation, also violence-related services
Children
▪ 6.7 M (14.3%) more children with wasting (compared to
no COVID-19 projections)
▪ Child mortality increased by 128,000 deaths
(~10,000 more deaths/month)
Women and children are especially vulnerable
Source: Quisumbing et al. 2020; Hidrobo et al. 2020. Headey et al. 2020
Stockpexel / Shutterstock.com

13. Food supply chains
disruptions
Supply disruptions vs. income and job loss
Survey evidence from Myanmar
Respondent assessments of three largest impacts of COVID-19 on their household
Source: IFPRI and MSU, 2020
Household income
and job loss

14. i_am_zews / Shutterstock.com
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
Restructuring supply chains
and food systems
▪ Heterogeneity:
▪ global vs local
▪ labor vs capital intensity
▪ large vs small (SMEs)
▪ staples vs perishables
▪ Many innovations to overcome restrictions
▪ Organizational
▪ Technology : digital growth and e-commerce
▪ …..
Source: Reardon and Swinnen, 2020.

15. Sumit Saraswat / Shutterstock.com
Beyond the Pandemic
Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19
1. A transformative moment in history
2. Use lessons from crisis to
transform food systems
3. Much creativity and innovation in
value chains and food systems and
policy-thinking to deal with crisis
▪ finance, digital, social protection, …
4. Use opportunity of global summits
in 2021
5. Crucial role to play for public and
private sectors