This document summarizes the findings of a study conducted by IFPRI on the impacts of the Ukraine crisis and global food, fuel, and fertilizer price shocks on Tanzania's economy, poverty levels, and food security. The study uses an economywide modeling approach to estimate that the price shocks will cause a 1.3% decline in GDP, a 2.1 percentage point increase in poverty, and deteriorating diet quality for 3 million people in Tanzania. The impacts are felt throughout the economy but particularly affect the agricultural sector and poor households. The document outlines the transmission channels and drivers of these impacts. Next steps discussed are evaluating policy options to mitigate the crisis's effects on food systems, poverty, and food insecurity

1. Version: 7 July 2022
Tanzania
Impacts of the Ukraine and Global
Crisis on Food Systems and Poverty
Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, Mia Ellis, Karl Pauw, James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC
These country studies are conducted by IFPRI with financial support from
BMGF, FCDO, and USAID. All studies use data and models developed with
ongoing support from BMGF, USAID and the CGIAR’s “Foresight and Metrics”
initiative.
Xinshen Diao (x.diao@cgiar.org) | Paul Dorosh (p.dorosh@cgiar.org) | James Thurlow (j.thurlow@cgiar.org)

2. Version: 7 July 2022
Overview
• Series of country case studies
• Economywide modeling
• Capture world market shocks
• Estimate impacts on economy, agri-food
system, poverty, food security, etc.
• Simulate policy responses
• Three phases of analysis:
1. Initial data collection and impact assessment
2. Data revisions and analysis of broad policy options
• Cash transfers, food aid, and fertilizer subsidies
• Fiscal implications for national governments
3. In-country engagement and tailored policy analysis
Impact
assessment
Policy
analysis
Country coverage
Countries with IFPRI RIAPA models
May June
July

3. Version: 7 July 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are imports in local market?
Can local producers substitute for imports?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations World Price Shocks
Source: World Bank Pink Sheets
Global data
11%
-13%
100%
56%
34%
88%
101%
Maize Rice Wheat Palm oil Crude oil Natural gas Fertilizer
Change in real world prices (June 2021 to April 2022)
30 Jun 2021 - 31 Jan 2022 31 Jan 2022 - 30 Apr 2022
30 Jun 2021 - 30 Apr 2022

4. Version: 7 July 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are imports in local market?
Can local producers substitute for imports?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations Supply and Demand
Supply
(% by source)
Demand
(% by use)
Tanzania data
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
99%
90% 89%
20%
10% 11%
80%
Maize Wheat Edible oils Oil products
Imports
Domestic
22%
59%
37%
90%
76%
21%
52%
6%
21%
12%
Maize Wheat Edible oils Oil products
Exports
Final use
Input use
+ Others = 100%
+ + +
3.4% 0.2% 1.6% 3.4%
Products’ share of the
value of total demand
throughout the economy
Notes: Wheat includes wheat grains and flours. Exported wheat flour is processed from
domestically produced and imported wheat grains.

5. Version: 7 July 2022
Shocks | World Food, Fuel and Fertilizer Prices
World price
Trade share
Direct use
Indirect use
Incomes
How big is the increase in world price?
How important are imports in local market?
Can local producers substitute for imports?
Which sectors use the product as an input?
Which other sectors are affected via supply chains?
What kinds of workers and households earn
incomes within the affected sectors?
Final use Which households consume the affected products?
Impact Channel Considerations Consumption Baskets
Tanzania data
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
16.8%
22.4%
14.0%
30.2%
15.9%
45.8%
54.1%
45.5%
56.2%
48.8%
37.4%
33.1%
49.4%
24.8%
44.2%
All households Rural Urban Poor Nonpoor
Composition of household consumption spending
Cereals & edible oils Other foods Non-food goods & services

6. Version: 7 July 2022
Shocks | Fertilizer Response (crop productivity effect)
Adoption
Application
Price
Demand
Response
What share of cultivated land uses fertilizers?
How much fertilizer is being used?
(i.e., fertilizer application rate)
How big is the domestic fertilizer price increase?
How do farmers react to rising fertilizer prices?
(i.e., price elasticity of fertilizer demand)
How do yields change with reduced fertilizer use?
(i.e., fertilizer response ratio)
Impact Channel Considerations Fertilizer Adoption Rate
Source: National Sample Census of Agriculture 2019/2020, Tanzania
Timing When is the fertilizer needed?
Tanzania data
13%
1%
7%
4%
9%
1%
69%
1%
70%
65%
23%
36%
2%
1%
5%
Maize
Sorghum & millet
Rice
Other cereals
Pulses
Groundnuts
Irish potatoes
Sweet potatoes
Leafy vegetables
Other vegetables
Sugar
Tobacco
Nuts
Banans
Fruits
Share of cultivated land using fertilizer

7. Version: 7 July 2022
Shocks | Fertilizer Response (crop productivity effect)
Adoption
Application
Price
Demand
Response
What share of cultivated land uses fertilizers?
How much fertilizer is being used?
(i.e., fertilizer application rate)
How big is the domestic fertilizer price increase?
How do farmers react to rising fertilizer prices?
(i.e., price elasticity of fertilizer demand)
How do yields change with reduced fertilizer use?
(i.e., fertilizer response ratio)
Impact Channel Considerations
Crop Calendar
Source: FEWSNET Tanzania
Timing When is the fertilizer needed?
Planting for Tanzania’s 2022 main season is already
underway
Tanzania

8. Version: 7 July 2022
Results | GDP and Employment
• National GDP and employment declines
• Negative terms-of-trade shock
(i.e., negative effect of higher import prices outweighs positive
effect of higher export prices)
• Rising import costs reduces spending on
domestically produced goods
• Falling production leads to job losses
• Impacts occur throughout the economy
• Agri-food system GDP and employment also fall
• GDP declines in both primary agriculture and off-
farm agri-food sectors (e.g., processing, trading)
• Smaller GDP declines in agriculture (equal to 15%
of overall GDP losses in the country)
• Faster job losses in off-farm sectors, especially in
food-related services, incl. trade and transport
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
Contribution to total change
GDP
Jobs
-1.3%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-2.5%
-1.4%
-1.1%
-2.9%
-5.0%
-6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
Agri-food
system
Change in GDP and employment due to
food, fuel and fertilizer shocks (%)
GDP Employment
15%
10%
74%
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
27%
14%
60%
Note: Model results are for 2022. Employment includes farmers, paid and non-paid workers, and
self-employed persons.

9. Version: 7 July 2022
Results | Drivers of GDP Losses
• Fuel and fertilizer shocks cause the decline in national
GDP that are large enough to offset the gains in GDP
from rising food prices
• Agri-food GDP losses mostly driven by fertilizer shocks
• Fertilizer and fuel directly affect primary agricultural
production
• Disrupts downstream processing via supply chains
• Tanzania exports maize, rice, wheat flour and edible oil
seeds, and benefit from rising world prices for these
commodities
• Larger GDP losses outside the agri-food system driven
more by higher fuel prices
• Higher transaction costs
• Lower consumer demand
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.4%
-1.1%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-1.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-1.3%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.5%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
Agri-food
system
Percentage change in real GDP due to food, fuel and
fertilizer shocks (%)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
Notes: About 45 percent of the effect on agriculture GDP under “fertilizer prices and response” is directly from rising fertilizer,
while the remaining 55 percent is from the productivity shock caused by lowering the use of fertilizer.

10. Version: 7 July 2022
Results | Household Consumption
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
• Household consumption falls significantly
• Larger than GDP losses as households are hit twice by rising
prices and falling incomes
• Importance of shocks differs across population groups:
• Fuel shocks affect all households and are more important
for urban and nonpoor households
• Earn more income outside the agri-food system
• More import-intensive consumer basket
• Consume products with larger transaction cost margins
• Led to larger consumption fall among urban households
• Fertilizer shocks important for rural and poor households
• Rely more on farm incomes
• Consume more domestically-produced foods
• Food prices have little negative effect
• Positive income effect from increase in crop production offsets
the negative effect of higher food prices for rural households
• However, grains from rising food prices are offset by the
reduces in consumption led by higher fuel and fertilizer prices
0.3%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.7%
0.2%
-2.5%
-2.2%
-2.8%
-2.2%
-2.6%
-1.1%
-1.6%
-0.6%
-1.8%
-1.0%
-3.3%
-3.0%
-3.6%
-3.2%
-3.3%
National
Rural
Urban
Poor
Nonpoor
Percentage change in real consumption
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response

11. Version: 7 July 2022
Results | Changes in Inequality
• Differential effects on poor/nonpoor households drive
changes in inequality:
• Fuel shocks causes larger consumption losses for
households in the top quintile
• Fertilizer shocks affect lowest quintile much more than
top quintile, causing inequality to increase significantly
• Food prices benefit all households and more so for low
quintiles
• Most of them are rural households benefiting from increase
in crop production
• Overall, inequality is largely not affected
• But poverty still increased
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Percentage change in quintile consumption
Food prices
Fuel prices
Fertilizer prices & response
Combined food, fuel and fertilizer shocks

12. Version: 7 July 2022
Share of population
falling into poverty
Results | Poverty
• Poverty rises significantly
• Headcount rate up 2.1% points
• 1.24 million more people pushed into poverty
• Food prices become an impact factor for rising
poverty among urban households
• Larger increase in poverty in rural areas
• Near two-third of expanded poor population
• Rural population much larger than urban population
• Headcount poverty rate rises more in urban
• Driven mainly by fuel and fertilizer shocks
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
-0.2%
0.1%
-0.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.7%
1.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
National
Urban
Rural
Change in poverty headcount rate (%-point)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
-110
25
-138
806
286
520
545
135
413
1,241
446
795
National
Urban
Rural
Change in poor population (1000s)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
36%
64%
Urban
Rural

13. Version: 7 July 2022
• Food, fuel and fertilizer shocks together increase the
cost of a healthy reference diet
• Reference diet is the EAT-Lancet’s “healthy” diet
thresholds for the six major food groups
• Rising prices for edible oils (in added fats) push up their
costs, while falling incomes reduce demand for fruits,
dairy and proteins (meats & fish) and thus, lower their
costs slightly
Results | Diet Quality
Source: IFPRI Tanzania RIAPA Model
• Rising food prices and falling incomes cause diet quality to
worsen for many households
• Prior to the crisis, few households had consumption levels and
diversity needed for a healthy diet
• Rising food and fertilizer prices cause three million people to
become deprived in at least one additional food group
• Rural households account for more of the deterioration in diet
quality, but urban people number is also alarmingly large
1.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.2%
2.3%
Net change in
cost of healthy
diet
Contributions of
food groups to
change
Shares of six food groups in total cost
of a healthy diet prior to the crisis
Added fats
Proteins
Dairy
Fruits
Vegetables
Staples
16.3%
11.5%
15.9%
16.3%
30.0%
10.0%
Shares of six food groups
in total cost of a healthy
diet prior to the crisis
Added fats
Proteins
Dairy
Fruits
Vegetables
Staples
1,956
914
1,047
877
312
560
3,009
1,299
1,710
National
Urban
Rural
Number of people to become deprived in at least one
additional food group (1000s)
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response

14. Version: 7 July 2022
Headlines
• Food, fuel and fertilizer shocks lead to large reductions in
GDP and employment in Tanzania
• Agri-food system adversely affected, alongside the broader
economy
• Agriculture is particularly at risk to fertilizer shocks, esp. if it
leads to lower fertilizer use in the current season
• Poor urban households are especially vulnerable
• Affected more by rising food prices
• But more rural households increase in poverty as rural
population larger than urban
• Both rural and urban contribution to the deterioration in diet
quality
• Next steps
• Evaluate policy options available to governments and
development partners to mitigate impacts on food systems,
poverty, and food insecurity (e.g., cash transfers, food aid,
fertilizer subsidies, fiscal support, etc.)
Impact
assessment
Policy
analysis
Country coverage
May June
July