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Scenario Analysis
Strategic Planning / Scenario Funnel
Time
Present
Observablequantity
Trendscenario
Worse Case
Best Case
a
Disturbance
Decision Point
A
B
b

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YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Procedure
Scenario
technique
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3. Page  3
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Scenario Analysis
Phase model
InterpretationInterpretation55
44 Development and Interpretation of phasesDevelopment and Interpretation of phases
33 Trend projection and identification of scenariosTrend projection and identification of scenarios
22 Effects AnalysisEffects Analysis
11 Tasks and problem analysis

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Scenario Analysis
Influencing
Main opportunitiesMain opportunities
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Main RisksMain Risks
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Strategic approaches to finding solutionsStrategic approaches to finding solutions
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Proposals to implementProposals to implement
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5. Page  5
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Scenario Analysis
Scenario Scenario Funnel + Positioning
Present Short time Medium time Long time
Trend scenario
Disturbance
Decision Point
a
b
A1
B1
A2
B2
I
IV
II
III
+ Case
- Case
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Present Short time Medium time Long time
Trend scenario
Disturbance
Decision Point
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a
b
A1
B1
A2
B2
I
IV
II
III
+ Case
- Case
Scenario Analysis
Exponential Scenario Funnel

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Scenario Analysis
2 Scenarios
Scenario AScenario A
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Scenario BScenario B
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Disturbance
Decision Point
a
A
Bb
Time
Observablequantity
Present
Trendscenario
Best case
Worse case

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Scenario Analysis
Future prospects
Disturbance
Decision Point
Present Short time Medium time Long time
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Trendscenario

9. Page  9
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Scenario Analysis
3 Scenarios in a scenario funnel
Positive extreme scenarioPositive extreme scenario
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Trend scenarioTrend scenario
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Negative extreme scenarioNegative extreme scenario
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5-10 11-20 >20
Trendscenario
Years
+ Case
- Case
Impact of decisions
Disturbance
Decision Point

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YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Visions, utopias and future plans
Present
Observablequantity
Past Future
Empirical data,
past performance
Scenario Driver
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Scenario E
Discontinuity

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Scenario Analysis
Case Studies
Best caseBest case
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Worse caseWorse case
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Resulting consequencesResulting consequences
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InfluencesInfluences
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12. Page  12
YOUR LOGO
Scenario Analysis
Risk-Matrix
Slightly
<20.000 €
Medium
<100.000 €
More
<500.000 €
High
<1.000.000 €
Existential
<5.000.000 €
Damage level
unable
< 1%
unlikely
< 3%
probably
< 8%
repeatedly
< 15%
frequently
< 20%
Probability
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
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XX