Populism 2007 For Pozorblog

The Dynamics of Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic Kevin Deegan-Krause Wayne State University Detroit, Michigan, USA

A Brief Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Populism in General: Definitions My Ally + Voters = Popul ar My Opponent + Voters = Popul ist

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Populism in General: Definitions

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Populism in General: Definitions

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Populism in General: Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Populism in General: Definitions Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people

Populism in General: Definitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Populism in General: Consequences ,[object Object],[object Object],Strong leader Direct Approach Morality Selectivity Opposing “Bad” Elites Defending the People Strong leader Weak Institutions Moralism Idiosyncracy Opposing “Good” Elites Pandering to the Mass

Populism in General: Consequences ,[object Object],Imprecise terminology to cover the notion of an undefined “us” who need the trains to run on time, and a “them” who block it in the name of democratic procedures that we simply cannot afford “ The People” Not “The People” Compatible Position Poor Rich Economic Left Co-ethnics Domestic ethnic groups and co-ethnic “traitors” Nationalism Radical Right Co-citizens Foreign powers and their domestic “agents” Isolationism Euroskepticism Anti-Americanism Believers Non-believers Fundamentalism Well-behaved Criminals Law and Order “ The Besieged” “ The Obstructionists” Authoritarianism

Populism in General: Issue Divides ,[object Object],Other Issue Positions of Populist Parties Nationalist 70% Authoritarian 60% Xenophobic 43% Social 37% None 30%

Populism in General: Issue Divides ,[object Object],Issue Combinations of Populist Parties Authoritarian/National 60% Authoritarian/Xenophobic 43% Xenophobic/National 43% Social/National 37% Social/Authoritarian 27% Social/Xenophobic 10%

Populism in General: Issue Divides ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Populism in General: Issue Divides Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Anti-elite program hard to sustain while in power

[object Object],Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal

[object Object],Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal Clientelistic or Other Appeal

[object Object],Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides Populist Programmatic Appeal Other Programmatic Appeal Clientelistic or Other Appeal

[object Object],left right Populism in General: Issue Divides

[object Object],national cosmopolitan Populism in General: Issue Divides

[object Object],non-populist populist Populism in General: Issue Divides

Time in power  Populism in General: Issue Divides ,[object Object],Populist Party 1 Populist Party 2 Populist Party 3

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Populism in General: Issue Divides

[object Object],Populism in General: Issue Divides

[object Object],Populism in General: Issue Divides Colored boxes denote new parties

Populism in Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Programmatic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Moralistic Idiosyncratic Stylistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Framework

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Moralistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Idiosyncratic Stylistic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Programmatic Framework

Populism in SK and CZ: Assessment Moralistic Against All Elites On Behalf of All people Idiosyncratic Stylistic Weak Institutions Strong Leader Organizational Programmatic ZRS 1994 Score=18 or 100% SDL 1994 Score=12 or 50% Example

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment Year Characteristic HZDS KDH DU SDK SDKU ANO SNS SDL ZRS SOP Smer KSS SMK 1992 strong leader 3 2 2 2 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 2 1 2 places morality over pragmatism 3 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 2 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 1 3 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 2 2 Sum 15 10 13 11 11 1994 strong leader 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 avoids constraining organization 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 places morality over pragmatism 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 Sum 14 9 12 15 11 18 10 1998 strong leader 3 2 3 1 2 1 avoids constraining organization 1 2 2 3 3 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 2 2 1 3 1 claims to represent "whole people" 3 2 3 2 3 2 attacks all elites 2 1 2 1 2 2 Sum 13 11 15 10 15 10 2002 strong leader 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 avoids constraining organization 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 2 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 attacks all elites 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 Sum 14 8 10 16 18 17 12 10 2006 strong leader 3 1 2 3 3 1 avoids constraining organization 2 1 2 2 2 1 places morality over pragmatism 1 3 2 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 3 1 1 3 2 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 1 2 3 3 2 attacks all elites 3 1 1 3 3 2 Sum 14 8 10 17 15 10

Populism in SK and CZ: (Tentative) Assessment Year Characteristic ODS ODA US SZ KDU- CSL CSSD KSCM LSU HSD- SMS SPR- RSC Dek. Od. 1992 strong leader 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 3 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 Sum 10 10 8 13 11 11 11 18 1996 strong leader 2 2 1 3 1 3 avoids constraining organization 1 2 1 1 1 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 3 2 3 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 3 Sum 9 10 8 13 11 18 1998 strong leader 3 2 1 3 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 attacks all elites 1 1 1 3 3 Sum 11 10 8 12 11 2002 strong leader 3 1 1 2 1 2 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 3 places morality over pragmatism 2 2 3 2 3 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 1 1 1 1 3 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 2 2 3 attacks all elites 2 1 1 1 3 3 Sum 12 9 8 9 11 17 2006 strong leader 2 3 1 2 1 avoids constraining organization 2 2 1 1 1 places morality over pragmatism 2 3 3 2 3 offers idiosyncratic program 1 2 1 1 1 claims to represent "whole people" 2 2 1 3 2 attacks all elites 2 3 1 1 3 Sum 11 15 8 10 11

Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

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[object Object],Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

[object Object],Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides ZRS SOP ANO Smer

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

Departing members of Smer not more likely than continuing members to believe the same propositions Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides

 Populism in SK and CZ: Issue Divides ,[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

Has Smer Routinized Populism? ZRS ANO Smer Time  Non-Routinized Populism Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

ZRS ANO Smer New Party or Parties Time  Non-Routinized Populism Has Smer Routinized Populism? Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

ZRS ANO Smer Routinized Populism Time  SOP Has Smer Routinized Populism? Populism in SK and CZ: The Future

All material used here availalable at www.pozorblog.com Kevin Deegan-Krause Wayne State University Detroit, Michigan, USA [email_address]

Populism 2007 For Pozorblog

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