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“ Dealing With UNCERTAINTIES in implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation - An Adaptive Policymaking Approach” By: Vishal Mehta Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology
Structure of the Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problem Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SPEED  of the vehicle contributes 1/3 of the total road accidents.  Speed targets [NL] for 2000 were  5-10% lower avg.  Speed than 1985 and V90   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Implementing these actions, the speed targets were not achieved and also 40% reduction in deaths and 28% reduction in injury level due to accident on road  [target for 2010]  still needs to be attained.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Problem Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Problem Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Identify the problem Analyze and compare alternatives Selection & screening of alternatives Develop scenarios Decide on outcomes of interest Specify objectives Implement alternative or policy Monitor and evaluate results  Traditional policy making
The Adaptive Policymaking Approach Defensive Actions Corrective Actions Reassessment  Other Actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences THINKING PHASE I. STAGE SETTING II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY Definition of success Constraints Policy Option set Objectives Necessary condition for success Basic Policy III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Hedging Actions Sign Posts Triggers Certain  Uncertain  IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
Research Question “ How can Adaptive Policy be developed to deal with vulnerabilities [uncertainties] in implementing ISA [as a policy option] in existing Dutch Transportation System?" ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Intelligent Speed Adaptation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],9 combinations of ISA are possible
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –  System Architecture(GPS) A N A L Y S I S Brake Pedals  Sensors Intelligence [CPU] Actuators Buttons Wheel rotation Wheel speed  GPS Navigator Engine Speed Throttle Control Systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Application software MAPS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Data Processing Transmission to server via GSM Data Structuring CDAS GPS receiver Satellite Speed limits Memory Communication system
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –  System Architecture (Beacon) Vehicle Beacon Transmission tower Main Server
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –  Functions of different system    components of ISA and its hierarchy   System Function Subsystem Function Equipment  Function ISA Controlling and adjusting the speed of the vehicle on the road according to the speed limit posted. Global Positioning System GPS helps in positioning or locating the moving vehicle on the road.  Control Systems Controls the operation of the system installed in the vehicles. It senses the vehicular motion - processes it and actuates the control system to control the speed. C-DAS Collection and data acquisition about individual vehicle and their movement on the road.  Beacons The beacon transfers the signal about the speed limit to the vehicle.  Satellite Locating the vehicle on the road and sending the signal (micro/radio wave) to the vehicle about its position in latitude and longitude. Antenna & Preamplifier  Processes the received signals send by the satellite and forward it to the navigator. GPS Navigator Reads the signal received and displays the vehicle on the map stored with software in CD and also speed limit for each road. It helps in navigating the vehicle to the destination. Sensors Senses wheel rotation and brake status and sends information to CPU. CPU Information on wheel rotation & location of the vehicle or by beacon is processed & speed limit is identified from stored data.  Actuators After receiving the processed information about the speed limit, it controls the speed of the vehicle on the road and offers resistance if the driver attempts to override and apply active braking. GPS Beacon
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –  Network Effects Different tests on effects of ISA on road transport system have been done in United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, France, etc. ,[object Object],Advisory ISA Mandatory ISA Source UK Leeds 59 48 36 Dynamic 39 31 22 Variable 37 29 20 Fixed  Mandatory ISA 32 26 18 Dynamic 20 16 11 Variable 19 15 10 Fixed  Voluntary ISA 24 18 13 Dynamic 19 14 10 Variable 18 14 10 Fixed  Advisory ISA Best estimate of fatal accident reduction (death) (%) Best estimate of fatal and serious accident reduction (%) Best estimate of injury accident reduction (%) Speed limit type ISA Type 48.5 20 7.5 All injury Non Built up Adverse weather and road surface 48.5 20 0 All injury Unlit Dual Carriageway Darkness  20 10 0 All injury Non Built up Geometry related 19.4 6.5 0 All injury Built up 25 17.5 8.7 All injury Non built up General speed limit advice High “ BEST” Low Estimated accident reduction [%] Severity  Road type Application  80 57 33 Snow  50 30 10 Rain and wet road  50 37 23 Darkness  All injury Non built up roads Dynamic  74 41 30 Geometry- based single carriageway All injury Non built up roads Variable 20 15 10 Non pedestrian All injury All built up roads 28 21 13.5 Pedestrian  All injury All built up roads 56 31 10 All  All injury Non built up roads Fixed  High “ BEST” Low  estimated accident  reduction [%] Accident type  Severity  Road type System
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –  Network Effects ,[object Object],Source UK Leeds Source: Sweden Source: Sweden n.a. -1.1 97.3 -7.4% -9.5% 12.4% 110 km/h -3.4 -2.5 84.4 -11.4% -16.7% 25.1% 90 km/h -3.0 -2.8 58.7 -9.4% -13.0% 21.4% 70 km/h -1.5 -1.5 38.7 -11.8% -16.4% 31.1% 50 km/h -0.6 -0.6 25.3 -3.4% -9.6% 33.8% 30 km/h Borlange - informative -2.0 -2.0 58.7 -13.6% -18.1% 35.9% 70 km/h -1.23 -1.1 36.4 -12.8% -15.0% 28.2% 50 km/h -0.2 -0.8 21.9 -6.9% -14.1% 33.7% 30 km/h Lund active gas 2 nd  period 1 st  period 2 nd  period 1 st  period After  ISA Before  ISA  After  ISA Before  ISA  Average speed reduction km/h Speed offences reduction % Variable
Intelligent Speed Adaptation –  Network Effects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BUT all these ISA results are based on small scale and simulation studies, so it is uncertain that it the impacts on large scale implementation and in real world would be same as discussed in results
Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Test in Netherlands ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],User Acceptance Speed Patterns Source: -NL Test RWS 30km/h  50km/h  80km/h
The Adaptive Policymaking Approach In the following slides adaptive policy is developed. Defensive Actions Corrective Actions Reassessment  Other Actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences THINKING PHASE I. STAGE SETTING II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY Definition of success Constraints Policy Option set Objectives Necessary condition for success Basic Policy III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Hedging Actions Sign Posts Triggers Certain  Uncertain  IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
Step 1 – Stage Setting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Step 1 – Stage Setting Actors and Stakeholders involved in implementing ISA Authorities Market constellation Demand side constellation Supply side constellation Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management- NL European Union Local Municipalities Law enforcement agencies  Automobile Industry [National and EU] Original Equipment Manufacturers for ISA Service Providers [speed data and communication] Road Operators   Insurance companies Research institutes and universities Transport companies Drivers/Users Motorists  Other road users Traffic police Environmental Agencies
Step 1 – Stage Setting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],System Diagram
Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],Categories for implementation Infrastructure:  Road category of Motorway, Highway, Rural road or Urban road Vehicle:  Cars, Light vehicle or Heavy vehicle, motorbikes, etc. Driver:  Can be categorised by Age, Driving Experience, Commercial or Private Drivers, etc. Traffic Conditions:  High or Low Traffic density areas, Mixed or Homogenous traffic conditions  Type of ISA:  By Automation level – Advisory, Voluntary &Mandatory   :  By function of speed – Static, Variable and Dynamic Communication Technology:  GPS or Beacon  Environment:  Weather conditions, lighting conditions, road surface, visibility, etc. Environment Infrastructure Vehicle Driver Other road users & traffic conditions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hence the basic policy to be implemented is  Voluntary Dynamic ISA  on  Urban roads  for  Young Car drivers . The basic policy is implemented on voluntary basis and not on mandatory basis.
Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy Necessary Conditions of Success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Positive Net Present Value and Market Success ,[object Object],[object Object],User Acceptance Accurate speed limit data Reliable communication technology Operational reliability of ISA Cooperation between Actors and Stakeholders Developing Standards Liability Issue in times of accident Privacy Issues Decrease in speed and speed distribution [on higher side] ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Indicators
Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy Identifying Vulnerabilities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Uncertainty about the effect of ISA  on internal factors of system :  like speed, speed distribution, speed offences, traffic density, owning &operating cost. Policy Making Process Policies Policy Maker Problem owner and Stakeholders Goals, Objective & Preferences External factors System domain for policies Internal   factors Outcomes of interest ISA Uncertainty  related to change in stance of actors in implementing ISA Uncertainty about desire value of the outcomes and valuation by actor as ISA is a new technology
Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Identifying and Handling Triggers Success Criteria Time limit Signposts  Desired values  Undesired or Critical values  Regret Level 1 [less critical] Regret Level 2 [more critical] Conditions of reassessment POLICY ACTION Triggers 60% penetration level Rate of Penetration Increase in 1% / month  Less than 1% per month 0.7% to 0.9% rate of penetration per month for 1 year 0.5% to 0.7% rate of penetration per month for 1 year Condition of Reassessment  POLICY ACTION 5 years
Implementation Phase Signpost 1 Signpost 2 Signpost n Collect I N F O R M A T I O N YES NO NO ACTION Decide critical value attained Check Regret level Level 1 Level 2 Defensive Action Corrective Action Desired change in regret level YES NO Step 1  restart again YES NO Reassessment Check Conditions of Reassessment
Implementation Phase ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Contd. With the example of user acceptance Signpost – Rate of Penetration level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Condition of Reassessment The rate of penetration level is not increasing over the period of time or has increased but later decreases
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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dealing with uncertainties

  • 1. “ Dealing With UNCERTAINTIES in implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation - An Adaptive Policymaking Approach” By: Vishal Mehta Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. The Adaptive Policymaking Approach Defensive Actions Corrective Actions Reassessment Other Actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences THINKING PHASE I. STAGE SETTING II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY Definition of success Constraints Policy Option set Objectives Necessary condition for success Basic Policy III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Hedging Actions Sign Posts Triggers Certain Uncertain IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture (Beacon) Vehicle Beacon Transmission tower Main Server
  • 11. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Functions of different system components of ISA and its hierarchy System Function Subsystem Function Equipment Function ISA Controlling and adjusting the speed of the vehicle on the road according to the speed limit posted. Global Positioning System GPS helps in positioning or locating the moving vehicle on the road. Control Systems Controls the operation of the system installed in the vehicles. It senses the vehicular motion - processes it and actuates the control system to control the speed. C-DAS Collection and data acquisition about individual vehicle and their movement on the road. Beacons The beacon transfers the signal about the speed limit to the vehicle. Satellite Locating the vehicle on the road and sending the signal (micro/radio wave) to the vehicle about its position in latitude and longitude. Antenna & Preamplifier Processes the received signals send by the satellite and forward it to the navigator. GPS Navigator Reads the signal received and displays the vehicle on the map stored with software in CD and also speed limit for each road. It helps in navigating the vehicle to the destination. Sensors Senses wheel rotation and brake status and sends information to CPU. CPU Information on wheel rotation & location of the vehicle or by beacon is processed & speed limit is identified from stored data. Actuators After receiving the processed information about the speed limit, it controls the speed of the vehicle on the road and offers resistance if the driver attempts to override and apply active braking. GPS Beacon
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. The Adaptive Policymaking Approach In the following slides adaptive policy is developed. Defensive Actions Corrective Actions Reassessment Other Actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences THINKING PHASE I. STAGE SETTING II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY Definition of success Constraints Policy Option set Objectives Necessary condition for success Basic Policy III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Hedging Actions Sign Posts Triggers Certain Uncertain IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
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  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Implementation Phase Signpost 1 Signpost 2 Signpost n Collect I N F O R M A T I O N YES NO NO ACTION Decide critical value attained Check Regret level Level 1 Level 2 Defensive Action Corrective Action Desired change in regret level YES NO Step 1 restart again YES NO Reassessment Check Conditions of Reassessment
  • 27.
  • 28.