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Electricity Pricing and Other Topics
Environmental Economics II Spring 2014
Lecture based on Borenstein and Field Ch. 11
Prof. Maggie Winslow
Levelized Cost of Electricity
• LCOE is the price for electricity required to
equate the NPV of the revenue from
electricity production with the NPV of the
cost of production.
N
LCOE
Cn(qn ,...qN )
å qn ´ (1 + r )n = å (1 + r )n
n=1
n=0
N
N

Cn (qn ,...qN )
å (1+ r)n
LCOE = n =0 N
qn
å (1+ r)n
n =1
• This is the discounted stream of costs
divided by the discounted stream of
quantity produced.
Why is LCOE Important?
• These estimates can affect policy
decisions regarding alternative energy
production options.

• However, LCOE is difficult to estimate.
Difficulties in Estimating LCOE
• Forecasts of future fuel prices important but lots of
uncertainty. High variance in forecasts.
• Some generation just for peak times, other for base times so
LCOE not comparable (capacity factor issue)
• Timing of generation is important due to difficulties with
storage – how do you value this?

– Electricity demand is fairly inelastic in the short term so supply
must be very elastic to avoid brownouts.
– Dispatchable vs. intermittent

• Location of generation can make a difference in value due to
cost of transmission.
• Doesn’t include changes in price of electricity year to year
which is relevant to timing of costs and generation.
LCOE and Externalities
• Cost of externalities not included, but
costs of meeting regulations are.
– Would including cost of externalities matter in
choice of generating facility?
How to Promote Renewables?
• Subsidies for green power helpful but not the
right approach:
– Makes power cheaper so doesn’t promote energy
conservation,
– Doesn’t recognize the variations in the power
being replaced. e.g. replacing coal fired plant
more beneficial than replacing gas fired plant.
– Not clear that it helps develop the industry for the
international market.

• Not the same as taxing brown power
Energy Subsidies (Field, pg.197)
• Reduced taxes for producers to encourage certain
types of production (ethanol, domestic)
• Public support for R&D (ex. coal gasification)

• Public insurance (nuclear power)
• Not charging for externalities (free use of public
goods)
• Direct payment for adopting certain technologies.
Energy Subsidies (Borenstein
pg.12)
• Fossil fuel subsidies from 2002- 2008 =
$72 billion
• = about $0.0011 per kWh
Shadow Pricing
• When true value does not show up in the
market, shadow pricing provides a proxy
value.

• This could be used to include the cost of
externalities when evaluating the cost of
various generation options.
Electricity Generation and Environmental Externalities:
Case Studies, DOE/EIA-0598
1995
Net Metering
• Small scale electricity generators being paid for the electricity
they generate.
• Varies in different areas.
• Difficult due to high fixed cost associated with electricity
generation and distribution.
• Fixed costs can vary little when customers generate their own
electricity.
• Off-setting peak power could reduce fixed cost needs.
fiid.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Electricity-production-from-different-sources-US-Japan-China-and-Brazil-2010%C2%A0.png
Current Issue – Energy
Independence
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_production.cfm
Import Dependence: The Simple Economics of
Petroleum Importation (from Field Chapter 11)
P
SD

SI

P*

Demand
q2

q1

Q
Increase ratio domestic and decrease
imports through decreased demand
P
SD

SI

P*

Demand
q2

q1

Q
Increase total domstic amount and
decrease imports through investing in
domestic extraction
P
SD

SI

P*

Demand
q2

q1

Q
Increase the cost of imports
through tarriffs
P
SD

SI

P*

Demand
q2

q1

Q
In Class Exercises

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Energy Economics

  • 1. Electricity Pricing and Other Topics Environmental Economics II Spring 2014 Lecture based on Borenstein and Field Ch. 11 Prof. Maggie Winslow
  • 2. Levelized Cost of Electricity • LCOE is the price for electricity required to equate the NPV of the revenue from electricity production with the NPV of the cost of production. N LCOE Cn(qn ,...qN ) å qn ´ (1 + r )n = å (1 + r )n n=1 n=0 N
  • 3. N Cn (qn ,...qN ) å (1+ r)n LCOE = n =0 N qn å (1+ r)n n =1 • This is the discounted stream of costs divided by the discounted stream of quantity produced.
  • 4. Why is LCOE Important? • These estimates can affect policy decisions regarding alternative energy production options. • However, LCOE is difficult to estimate.
  • 5. Difficulties in Estimating LCOE • Forecasts of future fuel prices important but lots of uncertainty. High variance in forecasts. • Some generation just for peak times, other for base times so LCOE not comparable (capacity factor issue) • Timing of generation is important due to difficulties with storage – how do you value this? – Electricity demand is fairly inelastic in the short term so supply must be very elastic to avoid brownouts. – Dispatchable vs. intermittent • Location of generation can make a difference in value due to cost of transmission. • Doesn’t include changes in price of electricity year to year which is relevant to timing of costs and generation.
  • 6. LCOE and Externalities • Cost of externalities not included, but costs of meeting regulations are. – Would including cost of externalities matter in choice of generating facility?
  • 7. How to Promote Renewables? • Subsidies for green power helpful but not the right approach: – Makes power cheaper so doesn’t promote energy conservation, – Doesn’t recognize the variations in the power being replaced. e.g. replacing coal fired plant more beneficial than replacing gas fired plant. – Not clear that it helps develop the industry for the international market. • Not the same as taxing brown power
  • 8. Energy Subsidies (Field, pg.197) • Reduced taxes for producers to encourage certain types of production (ethanol, domestic) • Public support for R&D (ex. coal gasification) • Public insurance (nuclear power) • Not charging for externalities (free use of public goods) • Direct payment for adopting certain technologies.
  • 9. Energy Subsidies (Borenstein pg.12) • Fossil fuel subsidies from 2002- 2008 = $72 billion • = about $0.0011 per kWh
  • 10. Shadow Pricing • When true value does not show up in the market, shadow pricing provides a proxy value. • This could be used to include the cost of externalities when evaluating the cost of various generation options.
  • 11. Electricity Generation and Environmental Externalities: Case Studies, DOE/EIA-0598 1995
  • 12.
  • 13. Net Metering • Small scale electricity generators being paid for the electricity they generate. • Varies in different areas. • Difficult due to high fixed cost associated with electricity generation and distribution. • Fixed costs can vary little when customers generate their own electricity. • Off-setting peak power could reduce fixed cost needs.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Current Issue – Energy Independence
  • 21.
  • 23. Import Dependence: The Simple Economics of Petroleum Importation (from Field Chapter 11) P SD SI P* Demand q2 q1 Q
  • 24. Increase ratio domestic and decrease imports through decreased demand P SD SI P* Demand q2 q1 Q
  • 25. Increase total domstic amount and decrease imports through investing in domestic extraction P SD SI P* Demand q2 q1 Q
  • 26. Increase the cost of imports through tarriffs P SD SI P* Demand q2 q1 Q

Notas del editor

  1. Timing – renewable generation during peak load times has more value than during off peak times.
  2. Ask what would be included in LCOE calculation. Externalities case studies paper – EIA.
  3. Not enough to change cost in relation to renewables.
  4. The world price doesn’t change but domestic supply is upward sloping. In order to encourage more production, prices should increase.