1. Mobile Early Warning, Intervention and
Response to Nuclear Terrakts
October 19, 2004
Washington
TETRAD i3 Inc. Boca Raton
Moscow

2. Our Starting Points
• Terrorism is a network phenomenon, not only a “hydra” but a culture with viral
attributes
• Technology must be assumed to be completely available to the terrorist and is no
longer an issue of “can it come from former WMD centers or supplies” or is it being
done in a rogue state camp. US, CA, UK, NL, FR, DE, RU, JP are not “rogue
states” but have been basing and staging operations for techno-terrorists.
• Radiation terrorism and the “RDD” is a very attractive modality because it is one of
the most effective for social-economic-political (SEP) destabilization
EVEN IF THE BOMB KILLS NO ONE
• The likeliest targets for an RDD are those with the highest SEP disruption value
• The likeliest process of assembling an RDD involves multiple trips, parts,
components and is absolutely unlikely to be a classic single-source for the
radioactive component
• The most effective and deployed preventive countermeasures should also provide
first-responder value and vice versa
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 2

3. Nomad Eyes™ and Asymmetric Thinking
Applied to Asymmetric Threats
• Applying the model and methods of terrorism thinking and principles of action
INVERSELY to develop countermeasures that are:
• rapidly and easily deployable (today, not after two years of $$ R&D)
• robust but very flexible and fault-tolerant
• low-cost, low-tech, easy-to-use, disposable technology where it counts - in the
street and neighborhoods
• engages and uses the victims themselves (the general population, “us”)
• extensible and reconfigurable as new sensing capabilities evolve (e.g., chem, rad)
• usable today as a testing platform in the real-world to build better
countermeasures in the future
• disruptive and unpredictable in the eyes of the terrorists - an “enemy in the dark”
to which they cannot know where, when, or how to respond
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 3

4. Examination of Terrorist Methods “inside out”
and Means of Employing the Victims and Targets for Defense
You can’t take this on a plane or into
many buildings
You can take these almost anywhere.
So do they.
THIS was the key weapon for 9-11
and for АВТОЗАВОДСКАЯ
It is also one of the key defenses.
When These
Turn Into Those.
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 4

5. Value of Mobile Wireless Portable and Handheld Nets
for an Asymmetric, Dynamic Countermeasure System
For Rad Terrorism but also for other
types and necessarily looking for all,
not only one
Mobile units using both cellular and
wireless internet/intranets
Freeform but adhering to industry
standards
Incorporating the General Public
Incorporating the commercial sector
(advertising and consumer products)
Asynchronous, Atypical, Asymmetric Sensor Fusion
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 5

6. Terrorism and Hunting Elephants
1. It is hard to miss hitting an elephant even with a
poor weapon
2. It is hard to kill one with inadequate technology
3. When the son or grandson of some unfortunate
hunter grows up, he will seek out the Big One with a
vengeance, for a trophy-kill born out of revenge for his
father’s demise
4. He will take the time to consider innovative
technology and tactics
America and Russia are classic examples of
“Elephant” Targets for Rad and other Substance-
Based Terrorism
Extensive Surface, Open Borders despite border-control
countermeasures
Extensive Commerce that cannot be halted or curtailed
Different types of open traffic to and within
Extensive non-reducible non-military nuclear industry
Well-established in-country operating front-line enemy bases
Open, non-reducible communications infrastructure available
for the enemy
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 6

7. But where are the likely targets and means?
In the public mind’s-eye and Angst
And the less-likely form for many reasons
Psycho-Shock is the Aim and
Nuclear Radiation is Powerful
even in non-lethal doses
Mass-dispersion with
uncertain contact and
degree will create the
most widespread fears
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 7

8. Targets
Consider only the two main targets
OBJECTIVES similar/different
MOTIVES different but complementary
TARGETS different/similar
Harm an ethnic enemy Disrupt economy
Harm largest numbers Create dramatic shocks that diminish
confidence in govt’s ability to protect
Create fear in the largest numbers
Create logistic/information network havoc
Disrupt mass transportation
Create electorate unrest, instability
Destabilize government
Destabilize government
Focus on popular (transport)
infrastructure Focus on economic infrastructure
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 8

9. RDD in the context of conventional attacks
Considering SEP Disruption and Destabilization as the “prime-directive” of
terrorist organizations capable/active in planning RDD and chem-bio tactics
• Most likely choice is with massive dispersion through conventional+inflammatory
attack
• Spread the most compounds in the most uncertain paths among the largest
number of possible affected victims
• Affect the maximum number of structures including transportation routes
• Aim for closure and disruption of normal use/traffic - it does not have to be for
years, just months or weeks
• Multiple small disruptive attacks easier and more effective than one block-buster
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 9

10. Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (I)
Prevention by Detection of the Planning Operation
Movement of multiple types of components, not only RAD substances
Time-matching and space-matching of logically connective, supportive events
“Sensor Fusion” of the Unordinary (Необычный) Kind -
Tracer RAD readings perhaps not individually remarkable
Photos of suspicious individuals and vehicles that have some “matches”
Exceptional shipping orders, out-of-sequence, special-route, handling
Parallel transit/shipment/transaction of non-contraband components useful
in an RDD
Goal toward Inverse Reasoning and Abductive Assimilation with other KBs / Xsys
Fall-Back Value: Emergency public alerts and First-Responder capabilities
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 10

11. Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (II)
EVENT !
Class (x) objects received by servers results
in generation of n graphs representing
hypothetical x y… relational maps; the
majority are discarded, but events of interest
trigger feedback to both autonomous and
human-based nodes for additional collection
and reorienting. No node or subset of nodes
is reliant and the whole may be considered as
a dynamic-geometry cellular automata.
EVENT !
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 11

12. MIMD, ETL, ADaM, MENE, Gaming
Data collection and sensor communication based upon classic MIMD parallel processing
♦ Fault tolerance, fail-safe
♦ Load balancing
♦ Doesn’t communicate? Go to the next/nearest available
Agent-enabled Extract-Transfer-Load processing from classic VLDB technology
♦ Up to 2K rows/sec, 80M rows/day
♦ Graph-theoretic architecture adapts well with semantic maps, topic maps, fuzzy logic
♦ Agents trigger DB queries in DW, others DBs, notifications to authorities, public
MENE - Morphic Exploratory Navigational Environments
♦ For authorities and responders - high-res 3D Adobe Atmosphere VR worlds
♦ For the general public - reduced-scale/detail navigation via cell phones
♦ GPS-enabled or not
Turning self-protection and communal security into a Game to get People Active
♦ Implicit, subtle educational-value mobile phone games with contests
♦ MIT collaborators - Comparative Media Studies (Klopfer, Jenkins et al)
♦ Get attention, participation, and free pertinent data with Positive Reinforcement
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 12

13. ADaM is Fast
16000
14000
12000 T yp ica l F a stlo a d
T yp ica l T p u m p
T yp ica l M ixe d
10000
P e a k F a stlo a d
R o w s /S e c
P eak T pum p
8000 P e a k F stld & T p u m p
T ra n sp a re n t F a stL
T ra n sp a re n t T p u m p
6000
S p e cia l F a stL
"K itch e n S in k"
4000 P eak E T L
2000
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Copyrights2004eTETRAD I3 Inc.
T e t T yp
13

14. And This is Why
P_graph of ETLS (2)
- -
+
0
- 0 -
- -
+ 0
0
Actor objects - 0 -
(nodes)
0
ETLPs (with ETL Set (with
actors) ETLPs)
- - - -
ETL Set (with + +
ETLPs) 0 0
- 0 - - 0 -
0 0
P_graph of ETLP (5)
- -
- - +
0
+ - 0 - - -
0 P_graph of Exec
- 0 - - (1)
- 0
+
0 + 0
0 - 0 - ADaM exec
- 0 - (program)
0 0
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 14

15. Tidewater -- Newport-Norfolk (I)
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 15

16. Tidewater -- Newport-Norfolk (II)
Port Name Tons (1,000's) [2002 stats]
Norfolk Harbor 27,901,354
Newport News 11,300,962
7,400 of @ 400K importers account for more than 80% of imports to USA
Prior to 9/11/2001, less than 2% of 6,000,000 containers inspected
Dual Vulnerability, Dual Terrakt Strategies
(1) Ship-in, use elsewhere (e.g., NYC, Washington)
(2) Disrupt the Port
Suez-class cranes, @ 70m length
Forty 50-ton containers per hour - capacity
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 16

17. Port of Baltimore
> 30M tons per year, mainly containers
2M+ residents in Baltimore and surrounding urban center
Main East-Coast rail and interstate highways traverse region
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 17

18. Today’s consumer-class RAD components
Our simple conversion with Nomad Eyes™
Existing mobile phone
Li-ion A/D logic Nomadiks logic
or
other
Rad-sensor element mProc Interface logic to
wireless internet
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 18

19. Deployment - Where and How
• Static but ad-hoc
– Passage locations and nexus points for cargo and transfer vehicles
– Likeliest places but not limited to one configuration
• Pseudo-random
• Personal mobile units
– Assigned to staff personnel
– Personal cell phones
• Unpredictable - a “two-edged sword” that cuts in in favor of the Defenders
– Inverse predictive models can be applied better to the data “mass”
– Al Qaeda (or “X”) cannot predict where are our eyes and ears
• Sun Tzu (“Art of War”) - Always Make Your Enemy Nervous
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 19

20. More on Compound Eyes
Multiple TYPES of sensor data
Multiple INSTANCES at multiple TIMES
INVERSE Methods applied “as if” in surface/subsurface imaging:
the task is to find what events and processes may be the modifiers of
known or deducible behaviors
USING
•Abductive rules
•Bayesian probabilistic inference
•Fuzzy inference
•Heuristics and “common sense” rules
For all the value of sophisticated detectors, an “outlier” element or two could make all the difference:
Requests for building or water/sewer line plans Repeat-visits of unusual vehicle or people
“Non-sequitur” orders of shielding-quality materials Unusual change in shipping order or pickup
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 20

21. Our Technology Focus:
Inverse, Nonlinear, Counter-Intuitive (sometimes)
Source
The Object causes diffusion and scattering of the Beam but the laws governing propagation and movement in
different media are known or can be ascertained. Working backwards from the Result, one computes and
estimates the Object on the bsais of how the Beam must have changed in order to produce the Result instead of a
pattern, computable, for what there would have been if no Object had been present. Now, transfer this Inverse
Model ought of imaging and into the world of semiotics and intensions. Now, one can do inverse thinking from
something Sensed and Observed, in actuality, to determine what were some of the intervening steps and processes
out of the usual and ordinary process that would have produced something different, most likely less complex.
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 21

22. Making Sense of the Data (I)
• Basic diffusion equation - usable as starting point for inverse problems
∂ 2u 1 ∂u
Particular credits - Roger Dufour, MIT
= u( x ,0) = f ( x ) u(0, t ) = u(a, t ) = 0
∂x 2
k ∂t
• Time-transition is accomplished in Fourier domain
∞
 x 2 a  x
f ( x ) = ∑ fn sin πn  fn = ∫ f ( x ) sin πn dx
n =1  a a 0  a
∞
 n
u( x , t ) = ∑ fne −k ( πn a ) t
2
sin π 
n =1  a
• Transition backwards in time requires amplification of high frequency
components - most likely to be noisy and skewed
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 22

23. Making Sense of the Data (II)
• Heuristic and a priori constraints needed to maintain physical realism and
suppress distortions from inverse process
• First-pass solution best match or interpolation among a set of acceptable
Particular credits - Roger Dufour, MIT
alternatives
ˆ
x = arg min Ax − y s.t. x∈X
x
• Final solution may minimize the residual error and the regularization term
2 2
ˆ
x = arg min Ax − y 2 + λ L( x − x ) 2
x
Regularization offers fidelity to the observed data and an
a priori determined (e.g., higher-scale-observed) solution model
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 23

24. Making Sense of the Data (III)
• Diffusion _ Attraction
• Modeling situations and schemas
Particular credits - J. P. Thirion, INRIA
as composite “images” in n-D
• Iterative process with
exploration of parallel tree paths
– Speculative track; not required
for Nomad Eyes sensor fusion
to be useful to analysts
– Purpose is to enable automation
of the analysis and forecasting
post-collection process
– Area of active current research
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 24

25. Making Sense of the Data (IV) - I3BAT
• Multiple modalities
Sensor 1 Sensor 2 – Acoustic, EM, Optical, Text,
NLP, SQL, AI-reasoning…
• All looking at the same topic of
interest (aka “region”)
• Each sensitive to different
Property 3 physical/logical properties
– “Trigger” data
– Contiguity (space/time)
Property 2 – Inference relations
Property 1
– “Hits” with conventional DB
queries (immigration, known
Background associations, other
investigations)
• Compare with Terrorist Cadre
Particular credits - Eric Miller, NEU
Tactic models (schemas, maps)
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 25

26. Public involvement, education, gaming
Educational Games
Children, adults
Individual, team
Citizen Corps concept
Volunteer Activists
Flexible E-Paper (FOLED) Commerciali$m
Public kiosks, signs Contests, ads, prizes
related to games
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 26

27. First Responder Capability as well
Notify Maximum Numbers of People ASAP after Terrakt
Redirect Survivors
Keep Other People Away
Assist People Finding Loved Ones
Provide Essential Life-Saving Information Real-Time
Coordinate and Inform First-Responder Teams
Locations of People
Active Sensor Array including useful data from public
Coordinate with volunteers
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 27

28. Current Status
Corporate-partnerships
IRAD program
I3BAT Phase 1
ADaM prototype completed
OpenNet prototype completed
Collaboratory prototype completed
Developments with US federal, state homeland security programs
Nomad Eyes Global “Peace Proliferation”
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 28

29. Acknowledgements
• J. P. Thirion (INRIA, France)
• Roger Dufour (MIT, USA)
• Eric Klopfer, Henry Jenkins (MIT, USA)
• Eric Miller (NEU, USA)
• Center for Surface and Subsurface Imaging
and Sensing
• ST Microelectronics, SA
• Adobe Corporation
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 29

30. A tetrahedron is the strongest and most
stable natural geometrical structure
1+1+1+1 = More
-----------------
Homeland The S4 Synergy
Security
Nomad Eyes I3
Integrative
Personal Inverse
Health Intelligence
BioScan
Healthcare
Clinical Disease Mgt
Therapy HealthNVest
I3DIT
In business and finance as well
as in math and science
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 30

31. Contacts
• Martin J. Dudziak, PhD (Technology)
– (954) 545-4500
– +7-926-530-1211 or +7-095-172-6369 Moscow (GMT +3)
– martin@forteplan.com (also mjdudziak@yahoo.com)
• Brent A. Kish (Contracts)
– (954) 545-4500
– (954) 614-4172
– brent@forteplan.com
• Tamara F. Koval, MD (Project Mgr; Int’l Relations)
– (804) 647-0374
– tamara@forteplan.com
TETRAD I3 Inc., 1206 NW 45 St., Pompano Beach FL 33064
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 31