This document summarizes a presentation on inclusive and sustainable growth and regional resilience in Russia. It discusses how economic growth indicators like GDP are not suitable for assessing real growth and development. It also examines Russia's ranking on the Inclusive Development Index and finds regional diversity is important for resilience. The presentation analyzes trends in Russia's Inclusive Development Index over time and across regions. It finds that regions with higher index scores, indicating greater sustainability, tend to be more resilient to economic shocks. Sustainable growth has occurred not just in resource-rich regions but also in more diversified manufacturing and population centers.

1. Inclusive (sustainable)
growth and regional
resilience in Russia
Speakers:
Stepan Zemtsov, Vera Barinova
PhD, head of the lab
Centre for Entrepreneurship Research, RANEPA
SMEs’ statistics Lab, Russian Foreign Trade Academy
Innovation Economics Department, Gaidar Institute
Saint Petersburg
23.10.2018
Urban and Regional Resilience: Strategies for Success

2. Sustainable development? Why?
2
➢Sustainable development is an essential topic for Russia (social
imbalances, environmental issues) but still lacks formalization
(Waas et al, 2014; Bobylev et al., 2015 )
➢Economic growth indicators (GDP) are not suitable for ‘real’
growth assessment (Sen, 1994; Stiglitz et al., 2015)
➢Inclusive Development Index (World Economic Forum): Russia
ranked 13th among 78 developing countries, in 2018 - 19th.
But Russia is too diverse!
➢Resilient regions can be more diversified (Boschma, 2015;
Martin, Sunley, 2015; Davies, 2011; Giannakis, 2017)
➢The crisis of 2008-2009 showed greater resilience of many
regions that did not have sufficient mineral reserves
(Novgorod, Voronezh, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Tambov, etc.)

3. What did we want to know?
3
➢Oil and gas-based economic growth in general did not affect
real development (sustainability)
➢Economic growth has limited effect only on the development
of resource rich regions
➢The most sustainable regions are the most resilient ones
GRP per capita in 2014 and its growth

4. Russian Inclusive Development Index
4
Indicator Max Min
Growth and Development
GRP per employed, mln rubles 5 0,1
Employment,% 100 0
Life expectancy, years 90 50
Inclusion
Real incomes, thousand rubles 50000 1000
Gini index of income 1 0
Poverty level (below the subsistence minimum),% 100 0
Intergenerational Equity and Sustainability
Investment/GRP, % 100 0
Demographic pressure (old and young per labour) 1000 100
Own revenues in regional budget revenues, % 100 0
Emissions/GRP, thousand tons per 1 bln rubles 10 0
Inclusive Development Index 2 exclude red highlights

5. RIDI and IDI2 dynamics
5
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Russian Inclusive
Development Index
(RIDI)
Growth and
Development Subindex
Inclusion subindex
Intergenerational
Justice and
Sustainability Subindex
Inclusive Development
Index 2 (IDI2) (no GRP,
income, investment)

6. RIDI indicators dynamics
6
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
GRP per
employees
Employmen
t
Life
expectancy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Real
income
Gini
Poverty
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Investment/GRP
Air emissions/GRP
Own budget revenues
Demographic pressure

7. GRP/IDI2 growth in the Russian regions
7
GRP per capita and IDI2 growth for 1998 – 2015 to average growth in Russia
IDI exceeds Russian average
GRPpc and IDI2 growth exceeds Russian average
GRPpc growth exceeds average, IDI2 growth is lower than average
GRPpc growth is lower than average, IDI2 growth exceeds average
GRPpc and IDI2 growth is lower than average

8. Most developed = most sustainable?
8
y = 0,063ln(x) + 0,2216
R² = 0,5514
0,3
0,35
0,4
0,45
0,5
0,55
0,6
0,65
0,7
0,75
0,8
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
InclusiveDevelopmentIndex
2
GRP per capita, mln rub

9. Most sustainable = most resilient?
9
y = 151,03e-6,081x
R² = 0,3074
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0,35 0,45 0,55 0,65 0,75
The number
of years the
regional
RIDI has
returned to
after the
crisis in
2015
Russian Inclusive Development Index

10. CONCLUSIONS
10
➢ Regional growth in Russia was accompanied by decrease in social
and environmental risks due to budget redistributive system
(economic growth affect real development)
➢ Leaders of sustainable growth are not only oil and gas centers:
The largest agglomerations: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan,
Moscow region
Diversified manufacturing centers: Tyumen, Sverdlovsk, Voronezh,
Leningrad, Belgorod regions
➢ The interregional variation coefficient of RIDI declined until 2011,
when the trend changed to positive - the redistributive fiscal policy
worked to reduce the gap between regions
➢ There is a non-linear relationship between regional development
and sustainability. After a certain level of development economic
growth is not related to social and ecological development
➢ Regions with a high RIDI (sustainability) are more resilient to shocks

11. Stepan Zemtsov, Vera Barinova
E-mail: zemtsov@ranepa.ru, barinova@iep.ru
Centre for Entrepreneurship Research, RANEPA
SMEs’ statistics Lab, Russian Foreign Trade Academy
Innovation Economics Department, the Gaidar Institute
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
• Zemtsov S., Barinova V. Inclusive growth and regional resilience in Russia // Region:
Economics and Sociology. 2018. №1.
• Lanshina T., Laitner J., Potashnikov V., Barinova V. The slow expansion of renewable
energy in Russia// Energy Policy, 120, 600-609
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business in the Russian regions” (2017) / RANEPA
• Zemtsov S. et al. Potential high-tech сlusters in Russian regions: from current policy
to new growth areas // Foresight-Russia. 2016. 10 (3)
• Zemtsov S., Barinova V. (2016). The paradigm changing of regional innovation policy
in Russia: from equalization to smart specialization//VOPROSY ECONOMIKI. 10
• Zemtsov S. et al. (2016). Determinants of regional innovation in Russia: are people or
capital more important? // Foresight-Russia. 10(2)