Greece 2016 OECD Economic Survey ensuring inclusive recovery 10 March

1. http://www.oecd.org/greece/economic-survey-greece.htm
2016 OECD Economic
Survey of Greece
Ensuring inclusive recovery
Athens, 10 March 2016
@OECD
@OECDeconomy

2. THE CRISIS HIT
GREECE HARD
2

3. Poverty has risen sharply
1. Measured as the ratio between the share of national income received by the ninth decile and the first decile.
2. The poverty line is fixed at 50% of median equivalised household disposable income in 2005. Data are available only for 2005, 2007, 2011 and 2013.
Source: OECD (2015), In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All. 3

4. Youth poverty has risen significantly
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion
Note: This indicator corresponds to the sum of persons who are: at risk of poverty or severely materially deprived or living in
households with very low work intensity. Persons are only counted once even if they are present in several sub-indicators. At
risk-of-poverty are persons with an equivalised disposable income below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60 % of
the national median equivalised disposable income (after social transfers).
Source: OECD Social Policy database and Eurostat
4

5. Life satisfaction has dropped
Share of satisfied and very satisfied in responses
Source: European Commission, Eurobarometer. 5

6. Unemployment has increased sharply
Unemployment rate
Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. 6

7. Public debt has increased drastically
Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. 7

8. Gross financing needs will increase
Gross financing needs, as percentage of GDP
Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook No. 98 database, Memorandum of Understanding, OECD Calculations. 8

9. REFORMS ARE STARTING
TO PAY OFF
9

10. Many reforms have been undertaken
Source:OECD (2015) Economic Policy Reforms Going for Growth.
Reform responsiveness rates (average 2011-2014)
10

11. Labour market reform has been
substantial
Employment Protection Legislation
Source: OECD (2015) Labour and social protection directorate database. 11

12. Fiscal adjustment has been large
Change in general government financial position, 2009-2014
1. Includes interest payments.
2. Includes interest payments, in percentage of potential GDP.
Source: OECD (2015), Government at a Glance; OECD Economic Outlook 98 database. 12

13. The economy is slowly turning around
Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook 98 database.
Real GDP index
13

14. Exports are gradually improving
Note: Export performance is calculated as the ratio of exports of goods and services to export market.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 98 database.
Export performance index
14

15. Foreign direct investment remains low
Source: OECD (2015), Globalisation database.
Inward FDI position as percentage of GDP, 2014
15

16. Reform implementation has been weak
Reform implementation since 2010
Note: The graph shows the fraction of prior actions and structural benchmarks for the IMF loans of the respective programs
for all reviews corresponding to each category. Targets that were modified or waived are excluded from the analysis. For
Greece, the data refer to the Stand-by Agreement of 2010 and the Extended Loan Facility of 2012.
Source: OECD calculations based on IMF MONA database 16

17. Further reforms will boost growth
Estimated impact of major reforms on real GDP
Source: OECD calculations. 17

18. MORE STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE
NEEDED TO SUSTAIN INCLUSIVE
GROWTH
18

19. Tax administration is weak
Source: OECD (2015) Tax Administration: Comparative information on OECD and other advanced and emerging economies.
 Broaden the tax base and strengthen tax
administration by giving it more autonomy.
19

20. Pensions dominate social spending
Source: OECD Social policy database and Eurostat.
 Do an expenditure review to rebalance social spending.
 Implement the guaranteed minimum income and introduce
targeted school meal and housing programmes.
 Review special pension regimes and introduce a basic pension.
Public social spending
20

21. SMEs cannot access finance easily
Venture capital investment is low
Source: OECD (2015b) Entrepreneurship at a Glance.
 Promote a venture capital system with important
direct links to university research and innovation.
21

22. Non-performing loans are high
 Introduce effective incentives and performance targets for banks
to monitor their progress in reducing non-performing loans.
Non-performing loans comparison
Per cent of total loans, 2014Q2
Source: Bank of Greece and IMF Financial Soundness Indicators database.
Source: Bank of Greece and IMF Financial Soundness Indicators database.
Non-performing loans comparison
Per cent of total loans, 2014Q2
22

23. Product markets remain restricted
Product Market Regulation, 2013
Source: OECD (2015) Product Market Regulation database.
 Implement the 2012 Better Regulation Law.
23

24. Regulation in network industries is high
Source: OECD (2015) Product Market Regulation database.
 Ease regulations in network industries and strengthen the
capacity and independence of regulatory agencies. 24

25. Transport infrastructure is poor
1. 1 = extremely underdeveloped – among the worst in the world;
7 = extensive and efficient – among the best in the world.
Source: World Economic Forum, 'The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-16.
 Front load the use of European structural funds.
25

26. Barriers to business are high
Source: World Bank (2015a), Doing Business database.
 Implement one-stop shop for operating a business and reduce
regulatory burden.
Procedures needed to get a construction permit
26

27. Contract enforcement is costly
Source: World Bank Doing Business Database.
 Reform the judiciary by using more e-justice tools, training
judges, out-of-court settlements, model cases, and specialised
competition courts. 27

28. Reforms will bring down debt
Source: Updated OECD Economic Outlook No. 98 Database, Consensus Forecast, Memorandum of Understanding,
OECD Calculations.
Gross government debt
28

29. Reforms will boost well-being
Source: OECD (2015) Well-Being Indicators database. 29

30.  Adopt key structural reforms to boost growth and
enhance administrative capacity to improve overall
reform implementation
 Make economic growth more inclusive by urgently
adopting policies to reduce poverty and inequality
and boost employment in the short run.
Key recommendations
30

31.  Broaden the tax base and strengthen tax administration
with more autonomy.
 Do an expenditure review to rebalance social spending.
 Implement the guaranteed minimum income, and
introduce targeted school meal and housing
programmes.
 Review special pension regimes and introduce a basic
pension.
 Promote a venture capital system with important direct
links to university research and innovation.
Key recommendations
31

32.  Introduce effective incentives and performance targets for
banks to monitor their progress in reducing non-performing
loans.
 Implement the 2012 Better Regulation Law.
 Ease regulations in network industries and strengthen the
capacity and independence of regulatory agencies.
 Front load the use of European structural funds.
 Implement one-stop shop for operating a business and
reduce regulatory burden.
 Reform the judiciary by using more e-justice tools, training
judges, out-of-court settlements, model cases, and
specialised competition courts.
Key recommendations
32

33. 33
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