Business Plan 2010-2014

BUSINESS PLAN 2010 - 2014
Webcast

José Sergio Gabrielli – CEO
Almir Barbassa – CFO
STRATEGIC PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
1

DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a
Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the result of new information or future events or for any
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not other reason. Figures for 2010 on are estimates or
based on historical facts and are not assurances of future targets.
results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the
Company’s current views and estimates of future economic
circumstances, industry conditions, company performance All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified
and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you
"expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", should not place reliance on any forward-looking
"should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are statement contained in this presentation.
used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers
are cautioned that these statements are only projections and
may differ materially from actual future results or events. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company
with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors We present certain data in this presentation, such as
that could cause actual results to differ from those contained oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to
in the forward-looking statements, including, among other present in documents filed with the United States
things, risks relating to general economic and business Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under
conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such
refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible
inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
including recently discovered oil and gas reserves,
international and Brazilian political, economic and social
developments, receipt of governmental approvals and
licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
2

CHALLENGES TO WORLD OIL SUPPLY
Natural decline requires finding new reserves to meet world demand
1
20

10
1 Scenario: Business as Usual

1
00

90 Scenario: Sustainable Development
Required Addition to Capacity
80

70 2020: 43 – 48 MM bpd
60 Projected
Decline
50 2030: 65 – 78 MM bpd
40

30

20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

87% of needed supply must come from re-valuing existing reserves, or from reserves
not yet discovered or declared commercial

13%
28%
Production from reserves not yet discovered or without a
development plan

Production currently developed with operations in short
and medium term

Production from revaluation of existing reserves
(increases to Oil in Place or the recovery factor )
59%
Source: Estimates using WoodMackenzies’ data 3

PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY
Despite growth of alternatives, oil will maintain its importance

Average Annual Change

Business as Usual Sustainable
17,324 Development
17,236 Traditional Biomass
7%
6% 2% 1%
1% 1% +4.2% p.y. +7.8% p.y.
7% 7% Other
Renewable
6% sources
12,974 6%
+5.2% p.y. +6.1% p.y.
1.32% Biofuels
0.5% 7%
0.4% 6% 1.30%
29% 28%
6% Hydro

Nuclear
26%
MMTOE

22% 22%
Coal
22%

Gas

29% 28%
33%
Oil

2008
2008 2008
2030 2030 2030
Business as Usual Sustainable
Development

Aggressive growth in biofuels will only slow the rate of growth in
the consumption of Petroleum products

* Aeolian, Solar and Geothermal 4

DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM
Developing country demand should exceed reduced OECD demand

Per capita petroleum consumption

30 Petroleum demand – 2009-2030 (variation million bpd)
per capita - barrels per year

1980 2000 2009
25

20 OECD Europe

USA
15
Middle East

10 Brazil

5 India

China
0
US Japan OECD* Brazil China India -2 0 2 4 6 8

Transport Eletrical Generation Others

•Considering France, Germany, Italy and UK

Source: BP 5

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION TARGETS: SUPERMAJORS AND PETROBRAS
Petrobras has the highest growth rate target of the industry

6000

Petrobras: 3.9 MM boe/d in 2014
5500 and 5.4 MM boe/d in 2020

5000 ExxonMobil: Production
growth rate ~3-4% in 2010;
~2-3% p.y. up to 2013
4500
thousand boe/d

BP: Production growth rate
~1-2% p.y. up to 2015
4000
Shell: ~3.5 MM boe/d in 2012
3500 and ~3.7 MM boe/d in 2014

3000
Chevron: production growth
2500 rate ~1% p.y. between 2010-
2014 and 4.5% p.y. between
2014-2017
2000

1500

1000

500
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
Source: PFC Energy and Company reports 6

PETROBRAS CORPORATE STRATEGY to 2020
Integrated, profitable growth, on a sustainable basis

Commitment to Sustainable Development
Integrated Growth Profitability Social and Environmental Responsibility

Expand operations in target markets for oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas and energy, biofuels and
distribution and to be recognized as a benchmark among integrated energy companies

Grow oil and gas Expand refining in Consolidate leadership Operate in the Operate in Brazil
Corporate Strategy

production in a Brazil, ensuring in the Brazilian natural petrochemical and abroad in the
sustainable manner, sufficiency in domestic gas market, and sector in activities biofuels sector in
becoming one of the supply and leadership establishing an that are integrated activities that are
five largest oil in distribution, while international presence manner with the integrated with the
producers in the developing export and increasing the other businesses of Petrobras system,
world markets for products, domestic electricity the Petrobras and to do so on a
with emphasis in the generation business system sustainable basisl
Atlantic basin and gas chemical,
emphasizing fertilizers

Operational excellence, in management, in energy efficiency, in human resources and in technology
Business Segments

E&P Downstream Distribution Gas and Energy Petrochemicals Biofuels
(RTC)

7

BUSINESS PLAN 2010-14: US$ 224 BILLION
Increased investment for integrated operations in Brazil

Business Segment

1% 2%
1%
Brazil and Abroad
2% 3.5
8% 5.1 3.5 International
2.5 2.8 5%

17.8 11.7

118.8
53%
73.6 212.3

33%

95%
Brazil

E&P Downstream G&E Petrochemicals

Distribution Biofuels Corporate

8

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 2010-2014 PORTFOLIO
Increased spending on infrastructure, logistics, value chain in Brazil

31.6 (17.0) 10.3
(6.8) 19.2

224
186.6

CAPEX 2010-2014 New Projects Change in Change in Change in 2010-2014
in 2009-2013 Projects Excluded project timeline project design Stake Business
Business Plan and cost Plan

• New projects for pre-salt,
logistics, increased utilization
1%
of domestic oil, and
21% monetization of natural gas.
0.3
0.3
E&P
6.5
6.5
Downstream • Change in partnership
participation reflecting
Gas & Energy
19.7
19.7 uncertainty about
5.1
5.1
Corporate participation of partners in
16% 62% downstream projects

9

APPROVAL STATUS OF 2010-2014 PORTFOLIO
Flexibility to adjust Capex for projects in Phases I and II
US$ 224 Billion
686 projects
0.4%
0,9 0,9

0.9 26.5%
Phase I
59.4
Phase II

122.6 Phase III
54.7% 122.6
17.5
17.5 7.9% Phase IV +
23.6
23.6 Aquisitions

10.5%

Phase I – Identification of Opportunity
Phase II – In Conceptual Phase
Phase III – In Basic Project
Phase IV+ ‐ Authorization for Execution/Implementation/Operations

10

LOCAL CONTENT PARTICIPATION 2010-2014
Brazilian suppliers expected to provide nearly 70% of total needs

Capex in Brazil (US$ billion)
Distribution and
Biofuels (100%)
Purchased in Brazilian
100 % Investments
Gas & Energy Business unit Brazilian content
in Brazil
(82%) Market (%)

Downstream and 80 % E&P 108.2 57.8 53%

Corporate (80%) RTM and Petrochem 78.6 62.8 80%
60 % Gas & Energy 17.6 14.4 82%
E&P Distribution 2.3 2.3 100%
(53%)
40 % Biofuels 2.3 2.3 100%
Corporate 3.3 2.6 80%
Total 212.3 142.2 67%
20 %

0% +
Brazilian Content US$ 46.4 billion from Partners

• Petrobras purchases in Brazil of approximately $28 billion per year (versus $20 billion per year in
prior plan)

11

Goals and Principal Projects

12

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION TARGETS 2010-2020
Domestic targets unchanged, international targets reduced

• Production curve for domestic oil gas production consistent with prior Business Plan

• Projected international production reduced as a result of decrease in investment

• Production curve does not currently assume any contribution from Transfer of Rights 5,382
120
203
7.1% p.y.
1109
3,907
(Thous. boe/day)

128
4.9% p.y. 9.4% p.y. 176

2,525
2,723 623
2,301 2,400
93
2,217 2,297 97
2,020 110 100 146
2,037 101 141
1,810 94 96 124 384
85 163 142 126 316
22 277 273 321 3,950
35 161 168 274
252 251 265
2,980

1,971 2,100
1,684 1,778 1,792 1,855
1,500 1,540 1,493
1, 078
Pre-Salt
241
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014 2020
1.183
Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International
152
13

PRINCIPAL PROJECTS SCHEDULED DURING 2010-2014
Updated business plan added new projects

Mexilhão
Mexilhão Marlim Sul
Marlim Sul Guará Pilot FPSO
Guará Pilot FPSO Tupi NE Pilot
Tupi NE Pilot
NG Antecipation of
Antecipation of
NG 120,000 bpd
120,000 bpd FPSO
FPSO
SS P-56
SS P-56 Baleia Azul
Baleia Azul 120,000 bpd
120,000 bpd
Module 3 FPSO Espadarte
FPSO Espadarte
Uruguá/Tambaú
Uruguá/Tambaú Module 3
Th. bpd FPSO Cidade de Santos 100,000 bpd 100,000 bpd
100,000 bpd
FPSO Cidade de Santos 100,000 bpd
NG/35,000bpd
NG/35,000bpd
2,980
Tupi Pilot
Tupi Pilot
2800 Cidade de Angra dos
Cidade de Angra dos
Reis
Reis
100,000 bpd
100,000 bpd

Cachalote e
Cachalote e
Baleia Franca
Baleia Franca
2400 FPSO Capixaba
FPSO Capixaba Roncador
Roncador Papa-Terra
Papa-Terra Roncador
Roncador
100,000 bpd
100,000 bpd SS P-55
SS P-55 TLWP P-61 &
TLWP P-61 & FPSO P-62
FPSO P-62
Module 3
Module 3 FPSO P-63
FPSO P-63 Module 4
Module 4
180,000 bpd
180,000 bpd 150,000 bpd
150,000 bpd 180,000 bpd
180,000 bpd
2,100
2000 Tupi NE EWT
Tupi NE EWT Jubarte
Jubarte Tiro/Sidon Whales Park
Tiro/Sidon Whales Park
30.000 bpd
30.000 bpd FPSO P-57
FPSO P-57 FPSO FPSO P-58
FPSO FPSO P-58
Guará EWT
Guará EWT 180,000 bpd
180,000 bpd 100,000 bpd 180,000 bpd
100,000 bpd 180,000 bpd
Dynamic Producer
Dynamic Producer
30,000 bpd
30,000 bpd
Aruanã
Aruanã Guaiamá
Guaiamá
Tiro EWT
Tiro EWT
1600 SS-11
SS-11
FPSO
FPSO FPSO
FPSO
100,000 bpd
100,000 bpd 100,000 bpd
100,000 bpd
30,000 bpd
30,000 bpd
Aruanã EWT
Aruanã EWT
Cidade Rio das Ostras
Cidade Rio das Ostras 4 EWT
4 EWT 4 EWT
4 EWT 3 EWT
3 EWT 2 EWT
2 EWT
15,000 bpd
15,000 bpd Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt Pre-salt
Pre-salt
1200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Oil Pre‐salt Natural Gas
EWT = Extended Well Test 14

E&P-BRAZIL INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
Continued emphasis on Post-Salt acreage, growing spending on Pre-Salt

Pre-Salt Post-Salt
US$ 33.0 Billion US$ 75.2 Billion
3%
13% 15% 18%
0.9 11.4
4.3 13.7

27.8 50.1

84% 67%

Exploration Development Infrastructure

• Annual expenditures for exploration of more than US$4 billion annually

• Development capex in Pre-salt approaching 50% of Post-salt spending

15

NEW VESSELS AND PURCHASE OF NEW EQUIPMENTS
Petrobras critical resources demand will drive Brazilian and international industry
Delivery Plan (to be contracted)
Current Situation Accumulated Value
Critical Resources (Dec/09)
By 2013 By 2015 By 2020

Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 5 26 31 53*

Supply and Special Vessel 254 465 491 504

Production Platforms SS e FPSO 41 53 63 84

Others (Jacket and TLWP) 79 81 83 85

Production
Supply Vessel Drilling Rigs
Platform (FPSO)

26 RIGS CONTRACTED, 28 MORE TO BE BUILT BY 2020:
o Until 2013: 13 rigs contracted before 2008 and 1 rig relocated from international operations*;
+12 new rigs contracted in 2008 , through international bidding;
o 2013-2020: Bidding process in progress, to contract 28 rigs to be built in Brazil.

* The rig reallocated from international operations, expire in 2015, so it is not considered in the 2020 accumulated value
16

Market Demand, Goals and Principal Activities

RTM
(Refining, Transportation and
Marketing)
and PETROCHEMICALS

BUSINESS PLAN PETROBRAS 2020
17 17

BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION, REFINING AND DEMAND
Long term plans to achieve greater balance and integration
124%
Production
as a % of
refining 132%

110%

kbpd 13%
2,980
3,950
1,971
2,356 3,196
1,933 2,260
1,791 2,794
1,393
1,036

181

1980 2009 2014E 2020E
Production Throughput Oil Product Demand

• Oil Production and the Brazilian market demand currently exceed refining capacity

• By 2014, exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million bpd, even as refining capacity is
expanded to process Brazilian production to meet demand

18

BRAZILIAN DEMAND AND REFINING CAPACITY
Strong Brazilian GDP growth projected to increase demand 3.4% p.y.

PREMIUM I PREMIUM I 3,196
Thousand bpd Clara (1ª phase) (2ª fase)
RNE 300 thou. bpd 300 thous.
3000 Camarão 230 thous. bpd (2014) bpd
2010 (2013) (2016) 2,794
REPLAN
COMPERJ
Revamp PREMIUM II
U200+PAM
(1º phase) 2,356 2,260 300 thous.
165 thous. bpd
33 thous. bpd bpd
(2013)
(2010)
(2017) 1,155
2000 1,933
1,831
1,016 COMPERJ
(2º phase)
165 thous. bpd
826 (2018)

1000 1,187
937
769

... 403
... 452
338
0

2009 2010 2014 2020
Gasoline Diesel Others Throughput
• Domestic production will represent 91% of refinery throughput by 2020

• Comperj’s first phase is now a new refinery
19

RTM AND PETROCHEMICALS INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
New refineries, fuel quality, and modernization account for 70% of capex

US$ 73.6 Billion
• Additional capacity:
3% 1% • Refinery NE
6%
• Premium I
11% • Comperj

• Quality and conversion
50% • Sulfur removal
• Modernization
• Upgrading (coker)

29%
• Operating improvement and logistics:
• Maintenance
• HSE
Additional capacity Quality and conversion
• Logistics for oil and biofuels
Operational Improvement Fleet expansion
Logistics for oil International
• Investments of US$ 5.1 Billion in
Petrochemical (includes acquisition of
Quattor)

20

Demand, Goals and Principal Activities

GAS, ENERGY AND GAS
CHEMICAL

21

NATURAL GAS MARKET AND POWER CAPACITY
Growth in natural gas demand, consolidation in Thermo Power capacity
Natural Gas Demand 130*

Million m3/day 32
4

41
46
14.4
2.0 53
24.3
5.3

2009 2014
Electrical Generation Industrial Fertilizers Other uses
* 2014 – Thermooelectrical generationa refers to full and simultaneous dispatch of plants

Installed Capacity of Electrical Energy Generation (MW)

7,227 +9% 7,892
365
137

5,997 6,437

1,093 1,090
2010 2014
International Thermoelectrical and Co-generation Renewables Sources
22

NATURAL GAS BASED FERTILIZERS
Fertilizer plants to take advantage of available gas and infrastructure

UFN III (sep/14)
UFN IV
Ammonia:
(dec/15)
81th. ton/year
Urea 763 th.
Urea 1.210 th.
ton/year
ton/year

2,911
Ammonia Plant
(Dec/14) 2,104
519 th.
ton/year
+160%
Th. ton/year

1,374
1,118 1,076
844

807

274 298

2010 2014 2015
Ammonia Urea

• Manage total demand for gas by transforming natural gas into fertilizers needed by
Brazilian agriculture (substituting demand that is currently imported)
23

GAS, POWER AND GAS CHEMICAL INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
Transition from investment in infrastructure to gas demand flexibility

Investments 2010-14
US$ 17.8 billion

15%
• Completion of the natural gas transport
30% 2.7 and processing infrastructure

5.3 • Consolidating investment in power
generation: thermo-electric, wind,
4.1 23% biomass

• Presence in LNG chain for transport and
5.7 distribution of pre-salt gas
32% • Major investments in the conversion of
natural gas in to Urea and Ammonia

LNG Pipeline network
Electrical Energy Chemical Gas Facilities
(Fertilizers, ammonia)

24

Goals and Main Projects

DISTRIBUTION INTERNATIONAL BIOFUELS

25

DISTRIBUTION INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
Leading the Brazilian market for distribution, increasing the market share
BR market share in the total and automotive market (%)

38.6 40.0
30.6 33.6
30.4
22.4

2004 2009 2014

BR market share in total market in Brazil (%) BR market share in automotive market in Brazil (%)

Distribution CAPEX – Brazil
US$ 2.5 Billion

• 8 p.p. increase in the global and
23%
27% automotive market share in the last 5
Gas station
years.
Wholesales consumers
• We intend to continue leading the
Operation and Logistics
Brazilian distribution market of oil
products and biofuels, increasing our
24% Liquigás + Others share in the market.
26%

26

INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
Reduced allocation of capex, with focus on upstream

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION OF OIL AND GAS
 Ramp up of existing developments, BP 2010 - 2014
stable production in long term Thousand bpd

800
 Reduced investment and production a 632
600 BP 2009-2013
reflection of greater opportunities in Target
400 304 323
Brazil 239 120 - 49%
200 93 128
146 176 203
0
2010 2014 2020
INVESTMENTS 2010-2014:
US$ 11.5 bi Oil and NGL Natural Gas BP 2009-2013 Target
DISTRIBUTION
221 CORPORATE
2% 123
G&E 1% • Development focus: Gulf of Mexico, West Coast of Africa and
186 RTCP
2% 615 Latin America
5%
• Exploration focus: Atlantic Project, West coast of Africa,
aligned with domestic E&P

E&P • Reduced emphasis on refining
10,330
90%
• Reduced emphasis on LNG, alignment with domestic Gas and
Power segment

27

BIOFUEL TARGETS AND INVESTMENTS 2010-2014
Continued expansion and integration with oil products
Ethanol Production Production Capacity of Biodiesel in Brazil
Thous. m³/year

Thous. m³/year
2,600
% 747
3% +47
+19
507

886

2010 2014
2010 2014

INVESTMENTS 2010-2014:
Ethanol Exports US$ 3.5 Bi
1,055
0.7
5%
+13
Thous. m³/year

449
0.4
2.0

0.4
2010 2014
Ethanol Biodiesel R&D Logistics

28

Targets and Goals, HSE, Technology, and Research
and Developments

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

29

TECNOLOGICAL CHANGES
3 Key pillars
Expanding Limits

New Exploratory Maximizing Developing Development of Sediments and Solutions for Operational Middle distillate
Frontier recovery factor Production, new generation other fuels Natural Gas Optimization Maximization
Operation and Pre Sea and Subsea characterization logistic in harsh
Salt Logistic Systems of the pre salt environments
and other
complex
reservoirs

Adding value and
Diversifying Products
Sustainability

Fuel, Lubricants
and special
products Other Renewable Water CO2 and other
innovation Petrochemicals Gas Chemic Biofuels sources Energy management gas management Energetic
Efficiency

30

ENGINEERING CHALLENGES

Competitiveness/
Sustainability
Using international engineering
patterns and metrics in our
facility projects

Simplification and
Standardization Brazilian Content
Reduction in the complexity Technological
of the projects, using & Engineering Contributing for the consolidation
standard solutions
Drivers of Brazil as a supplying hub with
international competitive level

31

R&D INVESTMENTS ALLOW TECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP WITH
FOCUS IN HSECORPORATIVA DE RESPOSTA CDA / BASES AVANÇADAS / ED
ESTRUTURA

Investments in HSE, IT and R&D
US$ 11.4 Billion

29%

HSE
46%
IT

R&D

25%

• Continued spending of $1 billion per year on Research and Development

• Continued focus on Health, Safety and Environment

32

Cash generation and Funding needs

PLAN FINANCING

33

FORECASTED OIL PRICE VERSUS Business PLAN 2010-2014
Petrobras base case planning price at lower end of forecast range

Forecasts: CERA,
140
PIRA, WoodMackenzie, EIA e
130 IEA.
120

110
98
100

90 84
78
80 75
72
69
70
59
60 Petrobras budget price
42 62
50

40 36 33
29 34
29 29
30 27 26 24
23 22
21 22
20 16

10

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

34

PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL INDICATORS 2009-2013 vs. 2010-2014
Stable cash flows with increasing investments

INDEX 2010-2014 2009-2013
Plan Plan
FX Rate (R$/US$) 1.78 2.00
2010 – 76 2009 – 58
2011 – 78 2010 – 61
Brent for Funding (US$/bbl) 2012– 82 2011 – 72
2013 – 82 2012 – 74
2014 – 82 2013 – 68

Projected Investments 224 174
(US$ bn)
Projected Net Cash Flow 155 149
(After dividends) (US$ bn)

Net Total Capt. (US$ bn) 58* 23

Leverage Up to 35% Up to 35%

Average Realization Price 163 160
(R$ barrel)
* Including Capitalization and excluding amortization of US$38 billion

• Conservative assumptions: Despite higher assumed oil prices, stable realization price
35

CASH GENERATION AND INVESTMENT
Profitable investments funded with cash flow, debt and equity capital

PROJECTED Operating Cash Flow
(2010 – 2014)

Cash Amortization
US$ 11 billion US$ 38 billion
Funding
(debt + equity)
US$ 96 billion

Investments
US$ 224 billion
OCF
(after dividends)
US$ 155 billion

Sources Uses

• Plan requires additional debt and equity capital

• Return on portfolio of approximately 14% on the aggregate of projects in the Plan
substantially exceeds cost of capital
36

CHALLENGES

• Capacity to execute a huge portfolio project

• Strength and reliability of supply chain

• Resource management and efficiency

• Human Resources challenges

• Funding requirements

37

Thank you

38

Business Plan 2010-2014

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