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Mof Summer 2010 Macroeconomic Forecast
1.
Estonian Ministry of
Finance 2010. Summer Forecast A ugust 25 th 2010
2.
3.
Economic growth in
2010Q2
4.
1. Macroeconomic Forecast
Andrus Säälik Head of Macroeconomic Policy Department
5.
6.
Recovery from crisis
is faster
7.
1.1. External environment
and trade
8.
Source: Eurostat Exports
has recovered rapidly in the EU, the growth rate reached almost 40% in the Baltics.
9.
Growth of exports
has been strong in last months, being affected by the internal readjustments of companies and the pick up of the foreign demand
10.
1.2. Domestic demand
11.
Consumers confident in
state success
12.
Convergence in households’
saving rate
13.
Consumption recovering?
14.
Upwards trend of
VAT
15.
1.3. Labour market
and prices
16.
5000 new wage-earners
during one quarter
17.
Registered unemployment on
downward trend since April
18.
Unemployment is falling,
but the pace is more restrained than desired
19.
Mostly foreign factors
and severe weather conditions, also increases in indirect taxes are behind the higher inflation
20.
Inflation will fluctuate
between 2.5–3% in near future, in line with the productivity and economic growth
21.
1.4. Risks
22.
Outside Europe qoq
growth loosing pace, pessimism is back
23.
Risk scenario:
exports will grow just one year?
24.
Risk scenario:
exports will grow just one year?
25.
26.
Public Finance Sven
Kirsipuu Adviser Public Finance and Strategies Department
27.
28.
Tax revenues exceed
the budget by 2.0 bln EEK 2010 budget Spring Forecast Summer Forecast Summer vs Spring Taxes in total 61 767.5 63 096.4 63 757.4 661.0 incl. PIT 3 220.0 3 210.0 3 150.0 -60.0 CIT 2 425.0 3 400.0 3 190.0 -210.0 Social tax 26 970.0 26 600.0 26 600.0 0.0 VAT 19 030.0 19 000.0 19 400.0 400.0 Excise on alcohol 2 330.0 2 540.0 2 600.0 60.0 Excise on tobacco 1 830.0 1 800.0 1 970.0 170.0 Excise on fuel 4 870.0 5 420.0 5 660.0 240.0 Gambling tax 215.0 320.0 307.0 -13.0 Non-tax revenues 22 760.6 23 552.3 23 798.7 246.4
29.
One-offs increase the
deficit in coming years
30.
No structural problem
in the budget
31.
Tax burden set
to decline
32.
Estonia still has
net assets by the end of 2010
33.
Thank you!
34.
Main indicators 2009
2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* Economic growth -14.1 2.0 3.6 4.0 3.8 3.5 GDP in current prices 214.8 218.2 230.4 245.5 261.5 278.3 CPI -0.1 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 Domestic demand -23.9 -0.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.6 Export -11.2 15.1 9.0 6.7 7.1 6.5 Employment growth -9.2 -5.0 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 Real wage growth -4.5 -3.2 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.5 Unemployment rate 13.8 17.5 15.4 13.6 11.4 9.4 Current account 4.6 4.3 2.3 0.3 -2.1 -4.4
35.
Forecast of Estonian
economic growth for 2010
36.
Forecast of Estonian
economic growth for 2011
37.
Economic growth in
different regions
38.
In 2010 foreign
demand stronger than expected
39.
Estonian exports
growth vs developments of main trading partners
40.
Spare production capacities’
reserve still there, export orders strong
41.
2010–11: after crisis
fast recovery
42.
Current account surplus
will turn to deficit because of the rise in import volumes and increasing profitability of foreign investments
43.
Share of private
consumption remains lower
44.
Investments presumably recover
45.
Employment by sectors
46.
Wage decline stopping
47.
Average payment by
sectors
48.
Average payment by
sectors (2)
49.
Average wage
50.
Changes in tax
policy– excise duty increases, VAT, state duties. Other administrative changes – electricity, water, gas, heat energy. Other goods and services – close to core inflation (2009-2010 without VAT increase). Contribution to CPI
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