Talk given at University of Applied Sciences for Management and Communication in Vienna in January 2017. It critically interrogates the narrative of digital disruption. It will describe some of the contemporary psychological and social research about the digital lifeworld and make some broader observations about how to best think about technological change.
2. ABOUT THIS TALK
This presentation will interrogate the narrative of
digital disruption. It will describe some of the
contemporary psychological and social research
about the digital lifeworld and make some broader
observations about how to best think about
technological change.
GET STARTED
15. My research since 1995has
PARTLY involved examiningthe
rhetoric around optimistic
predictions …
16. … about a wide variety of different
technologies sincethe 1820s.
17. _____ tend to elevate, to extend and increase knowledge as well as
business, and in our country especially, they will unite us more closely as a
people, and bind us together as a common brotherhood.
______ will turn the country into one big community.
_______ will introduce an epoch of neighborship without propinquity.
___________ will restore a sense of community in an increasingly
anticommunal world.
With the help of the ________, we are turning the country into one big
community.
It will not be long ere the whole surface of this country will be channeled by
a knowledge of all that is occurring throughout the land; making, in fact,
one neighborhood of the whole country.
_________ are the iron bands that will bind the various sections of this
country together by a community of interest.
______ will restore a sense of community.
Boat Canals (1815-
1820s)
The Internet (1994)
Telephone (1880s)
Railroad (1840s)
Telegraph (1850s)
Automobile (1890s-
1900s)
Radio (1920s)
Wireless (1900s-1910s)
18. One of themost enduring
features of predictions about
certain technologies …
19. … is the belief that
is going to revolutionize
a given technology
education.
20. Since the popularization of the web in
the mid 1990s, oneofthe most common
claims aboutit, is how education needs
to change because ofit.
39. The well-established academic field of
science, technology and society (STS) studies has time
and time again found that whenexamined carefully
most technologies rarely have had theeffect that was
expected
or
had the transformative impact people claim.
43. First some fine examples of bridges in
the UnitedStates in the late 19th
century.
To begin, let’s look at a high
technologyof the 19th century:
bridges.
52. British bridges were “treated as monuments
symbolizing progress already achieved, the
whole ethos surrounding their American
counterparts was one of expectations of
future progress.”
-- Arnold Pacey, The Maze of Ingenuity: Ideas and Idealism in the Development of
Technology
Both these bridges were built in 1890 andcross a similar width of river, one in Britain, the
otherin theUnited States
58. Sholes original typewriters were plagued
by the bars jamming when typist typed
too quickly. Remington (which bought
Sholes), solved the problem in the 1880s
with qwerty keyboard (i.e., made it
harder to type quicker) and also allowed
salesmen to quick type TYEWRITER.
Example of alternate keyboard
arrangement that is significantly quicker
to type on.
59. “Because small, randomevents that
happenearly canbe magnified tohave
great importance later, the eventual
outcome candepend quite sensitively on
circumstances – it ispath dependent. …
Such path dependence implies that the
outcome cannotbe predicted withany
certainty aheadoftime.”
Robert Pool,Beyond Engineering: How Society ShapesTechnology (1997)
60. Technological determinism visualizes
competing technologies as a marble
in a bowl: gravity forces it towards
the same destination regardless of
the path it take (and thus technology
is predictable)
61. Constructivist historians see
technologies like a marble poised on
top of an upside down bowl: the path
the marble takes (and its resulting
destination) can be quite different.
Its path can be quite complicated to
understand, and requires examining
factors such as: the dissemination of
scientific discoveries, existing
technological infrastructure, market
judgments, organizational decisions,
actions by key individuals, etc.
63. While the path a technology takes
will depend on a wide variety of
factors made near the beginning of
a technology’s development,
it eventually follows a path that is
constrained and difficult to veer
from.
Some people have called this
technological momentum.
A technology develops momentum
or has inertia due to established
interests (financial, educational,
biases, social practices, etc) and it
can be very difficult for a
technology to shift or change
drastically after that early stage.
64.
65. Most technological deterministic impact
prognosticators do theirwork by lookingat the
functional capabilities of a given technology
and then imagining theimpact of those functions.
68. The introduction of anti-lock
disc brakes have not
reduced accidents at all,
because drivers tend to drive faster and
tailgate more closely due to the improved
braking technology and also partly because
of increases in the intensity of traffic due to
unexpected changes in urban geography.
69.
70. The introduction of household
technology
did not end up creating,
in the words of Ruth Schwartz
Cowan,
less work for mother,
but
in fact
more work
because of a series of social changes that could
not have been predicted if one limited one’s
analysis just to the functional capabilities of the
household technologies.
71.
72. it is always a mistake
“to assess the impact of a
technology on the basis of
inference from capabilities instead
of on the basis of evidence”
73.
74. If we do examine the evidence
we will see that the intrusion of ICT into
activities such as reading and education has
NOT improved human knowledge but
arguably done the opposite
77. There is evidence that YESreaders’ comprehension levels are
significantly lower when reading materials
on the screen in comparison to reading
paper materials
78. Eveland Jr,W. P., & Dunwoody,S.(2001).User control and structural
isomorphism or disorientation and cognitiveload?:Learning from the
web versus print.Communication Research,28(1).
Liu,Z. (2005).Readingbehavior in the digital environment.Journal
of Documentation,61(6).
Macedo-Rouet,M.,Rouet,J. F., Epstein,I., & Fayard,P. (2003).
Effects of online readingon popular sciencecomprehension.Science
Communication,25(2).
Ji, S. W., Michaels,S.,& Waterman,D.(2014).Printvs. electronic
readings in collegecourses:Cost-efficiency and perceived learning.
The Internetand Higher Education,21.
Ackerman,R., & Lauterman,T.(2012).Taking readingcomprehension
exams on screen or on paper? A metacognitiveanalysis oflearning
texts under time pressure.Computers in Human Behavior,28(5)
DeStefano,D.,& LeFevre,J. A. (2007).Cognitiveload in hypertext
reading:A review.Computers in Human Behavior,23(3).
Mangen,A.,Walgermo,B. R., & Brønnick,K. (2013).Reading linear
texts on paper versus computer screen:Effects on reading
comprehension.International Journal ofEducationalResearch.
82. Early researchinto web usability quickly uncovered a
very important fact abouthow people
actually read on the web
83.
84. How long doyou spend
visiting a web page?
You’re looking at the
answer
85. aredisplayed for less than
25% of all web pages
four seconds!
Weinreich et al, “Off the Beaten Tracks: Exploring Three Aspects of Web Navigation”, IW3C2 2006
86. areshorter than
52% of all visits
ten seconds!
Only about11%are visited formore than
2minutes.
Weinreich et al, “Off the Beaten Tracks: Exploring Three Aspects of Web Navigation”, IW3C2 2006
89. We are only able to see
things clearly and in focus in
the fovea
90. Word Skipping: Implications
Eye movements in reading are characterized by
short periods of steadiness (fixations) followed by
fast movements (saccades). Saccades are needed
to bring new information into the centre of the
visual field where acuity is best; fixations are
required to recognized words. … Some words are
fixated more than once, some are initially not
fixated but immediately afterwards regressed to,
and some are not fixated at all.
Marc Brysbaert and Francoise Vitu, “WordSkipping: Implications forTheories of Eye Movement Control in Reading,”Eye Guidance in Reading andScenePerception
(Elsevier Science, 1998)
91. Results of an eye-tracking experiment
in which subjects were being tested
for which text layout was easier to read;
notice that even when subjects
were being asked to read, very little reading
(i.e., fixations – shown as circles)
was actually done
92. Nielsen Group, “F-Shaped Pattern For Reading Web Content,” http://www.useit.com/alertbox/reading_pattern.html (April 17, 2006)
95. Nielsen Group, “Email Newsletters: Surviving Inbox Congestion,”http://www.useit.com/alertbox/newsletters.html (June12, 2006)
Notice
Red areas show that
only first two
words in headlines
scanned
are
96. Eye-tracking studies in
the past few years
show that in
comparison to 15
years ago, people now
scan newspapers in a
very similar way to
web pages
99. Because adult sites appear to be the largest
single category of web site (with email and
social networking a close second and third) ...
… and onaverage thestay time for
adult and email requests
is significantly longer
than non-adult and non-email requests.
108. One absolutely vital feature
of most current electronic
reading devices is that they
contain within them substantial
potential for distractibility.
114. Bowman,L.L., Levine,L. E., Waite, B. M., & Gendron,M. (2010).Can
students really multitask? an experimental study ofinstantmessaging
while reading.Computers & Education,54 (4)
Levine,L.E., Waite,B. M., & Bowman,L.L. (2012).Mobile media
use,multitasking and distractibility.International Journal ofCyber
Behavior,Psychology and Learning(IJCBPL),2(3),15-29.
Ophir,E., Nass,C., & Wagner,A. D. (2009).Cognitive control in media
multitaskers.Proceedings ofthe National Academy ofSciences ofthe
United States of America,106(37)
Aguilar-Roca,N.M., Williams,A. E., & O'Dowd,D. K. (2012).The
impactof laptop-free zones on studentperformance and attitudes in
large lectures.Computers & Education,59 (4)
Fried,C. B. (2008).In-class laptop use and its effects on student
learning.Computers & Education,50(3),
Junco,R., & Cotten,S. R. (2012).No A 4 U: The relationship
between multitasking and academic performance.Computers &
Education,59(2),505-514.
Lee,Y., & Wu, J. (2012).The effect of individual differences in the
inner and outer states of ICT on engagementin online reading
activities and PISA 2009 reading literacy:Exploringthe relationship
between the old and new readingliteracy.Learning and Individual
Differences,22 (3)Judd,T., & Kennedy,G.(2011).Measurementand evidence of
computer-based task switching andmultitasking by ‘Netgeneration’
students.Computers & Education,56 (3),
Brasel,S. A., & Gips,J. (2011).Media multitasking behavior:
Concurrenttelevision and computer usage.Cyberpsychology,
Behavior,and Social Networking,14(9).
Yeykelis,L., Cummings,J.J., & Reeves,B. (2014).Multitasking on
a single device:Arousal andthe frequency,anticipation,and
prediction ofswitching between media contenton a computer.
Journal ofCommunication
Sana,F., Weston,T., & Cepeda,N.J. (2013).Laptop multitasking
hinders classroom learning for both users and nearby peers.
Computers & Education,62.
Rubinstein,J.S., Meyer,D. E., & Evans,J. E. (2001).Executive
control ofcognitive processes in task switching.Journal of
Experimental Psychology:Human Perceptionand Performance,
27(4)
Wood,E., Zivcakova,L.,Gentile,P., Archer,K., De Pasquale,D.,&
Nosko,A. (2012).Examining the impactofoff-task multi-tasking
with technology on real-time classroom learning.Computers &
Education,58(1).
115. the evidence is very consistent
Heavy media multitaskers
(especialy younger people) have
lower grades,
less self-regulation,
lower motivation levels,
and lowered learning
116. So is this just
something that
only those
young kids are
doing?
124. In An overviewoftheevidence
researchers concluded that
availability and usage of ICT in
classrooms had a direct and
negative impact on literacy ,
knowledge, grades , and creativity
(even after controlling for other
factors)
140. “Collectively, the models presented illustrate
that as journal archives came online …
citations became more concentrated within
fewer articles.”
“by enabling scientists to quickly
reach and converge with prevailing
opinion, electronic journals hasten
scientific consensus”
James A Evans, “Electronic Publication andthe Narrowing of Science and Scholarship,”Science321 (July 18, 2008)
146. The introduction of cheaper rotary
printing presses (in 19th century) was
initially a centrifugal force …
But over time, they (along with other agents)
acted as a centripetal force and centralized
print into a few major newspapers and book
presses.
in that there was a flowering of
many new print sources (penny
presses, community papers,
union leaflets, etc).
That is, a power law
distribution developed.
150. In allthese cases
the expected social impacts of a
technology
ended up being wildly wrong
because either theprognosticators
believed in a
naïve technological determinism
152. The first step
Then we should take when Thinking
about social consequences
Of technology
is to remember
how rarely
technologies achieve their promise,
and indeed,
how manydo theopposite
OR THE UNEXPECTED.
153. “It was easy to predict the
inventionof the
automobile; what was
hard was topredict the
traffic jam, or the
automobile’s effect on
teenagesexuality.”
-- ISAAC ASIMOV
154. The SECOND STEP IS TO RECOGNIZE THAT
TECHNOLOGIES DO HAVE ANEFFECT ON
PEOPLE AND SOCIETY.
MOMENTUM EXISTS … UNFORTUNATELY,
THE PATH TAKEN BY A TECHNOLOGY IS
OFTEN NOT THE ONE INTENDED, OR ONE
THAT IS EASILY UNDERSTOOD.
155. The third step
Is not relying on
anecdotal evidence,
marketing hype,
or hasty web-based journalism
When looking for evidence about
social effects oftechnologies.
156. Ways need to be explored of stimulating
vigorous on-going public debate about digital
technology –allowing current ‘common-sense’
understandings of digital disruptions to be
challenged, contested, problematized and de-
reified.
157. Similarly, there is clearly scope for the more
rigorous and far-reaching problematizing of
digital disruption discourse from within the
academic community – engaging in discussions
and debates that move beyond the ‘celebratory
vagueness’ of much scholarly work on digital
media.