The document summarizes a study on the Pan Arab Interconnection Project and the integration of renewable energy sources in Arab electricity grids. The study evaluated scenarios for electricity and natural gas trade between Arab countries from 2012-2030. The preferred scenario involved expanding existing electricity interconnectors and adding new gas pipelines between some countries. This scenario had the lowest total cost of electricity generation for the region compared to alternatives that did not include certain gas infrastructure additions.

1. Experts Workshop on Renewable Integration with Electricity Grids in the Arab Region
Held in Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain
8-9th October, 2013
The Pan Arab Interconnection Project
Latest Update
Arab Fund For Economic & Social Development

2. CONTENTS
The Pan Arab Interconnection (PAI) Study
 Objective



Tasks Included in the Study
Study Results so far
Remaining Activities
Renewable Energy Sources (RES)



Existing Renewable Energy Sources in the Arab World
Planned RES up to 2030
How Planned RES Impacted the Results of the PAI Study
Impact of RES on The Pan-Arab Interconnection Grid
 Effect on System Protection
 Effect on Loading of Tie-Lines Between Countries
 Miscellaneous Issues

3. PART I
OVERVIEW OF THE PAN ARAB
INTERCONNECTION STUDY

4. SIMPLE QUESTION
What is best for Egypt
What is best for Jordan
• Export electricity
• Export NG
• How much of each
• Import electricity
• Import NG
• How much of each

5. NOW, WHAT ABOUT
ELEC
NG
ELEC
ELEC
NG
ELEC
NG
NG
More Questions
• What is Best for Each Arab Country
• What is Best for All Arab Countries (Combined)
• What is the Trade-off for Each Country, if We Take the Optimum
Scenario

6. STUDY OBJECTIVES
• Determine the best electric energy and natural gas (NG) trade
scenario for each Arab country separately and for all Arab
countries.
• Determine the best options for new electricity and gas
interconnections.
•
Cover the planning period 2012-2030

7. SALIENT DATA ABOUT THE STUDY
Consultant
CESI
Ramboll
(Italy)
(Denmark)
…… Electrical Aspects
…… Natural Gas Aspects
Duration of Contract
18 Months (February 2012 – August 2013)
Value of Contract
Around $1.3 Million
Financed by a grant from the Arab Fund

8. TASKS INCLUDED IN THE SCOPE OF WORK
Task 1: The power sector in the
Arab World- Present status and
future trends
Task 2: The gas sector in the Arab
World- Potential available NG
quantities and potential surplus
for NG trading
Task 3: Scenarios and assessment of economic feasibility of different
alternatives for energy/power exchange
Task 3: Scenarios and feasibility of electrical energy trading and
interconnection re-enforcements
Task 5: Financial study of the
selected alternative and
electricity pricing
Task 6: Bilateral multilateral
trade model for electricity and
NG
Task 7: Implementation plan of the proposed electrical and NG
interconnections

9. SCHEDULE FOR EXECUTING THE STUDY (Updated)
Task
Status
Task 1
Completed on Schedule
Task 2
Comments
Completed on Schedule
Task 3
AFESD financed a V.O. to study more
scenarios in order to find the “preferred
Completed behind Schedule
scenario”
Task 4
- All 4 tasks currently conducted in parallel
Task 5
- Consultant will submit reports on results of
these tasks in mid October
Ongoing
Task 6
Task 7
- Consultant will submit preliminary final
report before the end of November 2013

10. MAIN ASSUMPTIONS USED IN STUDY
For countries that have provided partial generation expansion plans, the additional
future generation units of the various generation technology selected in each
country are considered.
The cost and performance characteristics of generating technologies described in the
data collection report are inputs to electricity capacity planning.
The Base Case of the load forecast is considered for all Arab countries.
Natural Gas prices are estimated for the various Arab Countries, together with the
restricted volumes for natural gas use in the power sector.
Other primary resource prices of the different fuels are described in the “Data
Collection and Study Assumption Report” and are equal for all Arab Countries.
No subsidies are applied for the development of Renewable Energy Sources.
A unique discount rate of 10% is used across the board
Used a common Generation Planning Criteria as defined in the Planning
Memorandum for electricity.

11. TASKS COMPLETED SO FAR
Task
Deliverable
Task 1
Complete database on all generating plants in all Arab countries
that participated in the study
Task 2
Incomplete database on the gas sector in all Arab countries that
participated in the study
Task 3
Preferred scenario for upgrading electrical interconnection and gas
facilities in the Arab countries (minimizes total NPV of generation
during the period 2012-2030)

12. STEP BY STEP PROCEDURE AS TO HOW WE ARRIVED TO
THE PREFFERED SCENARIO IN TASK 3
BAU Scenario
IC Scenario
o Business As Usual
o Electrical interconnection scenario
o Generation in each
country used to
supply loads in that
country
o Existing and planned tie lines
modeled
o Existing and
planned tie lines
modeled, but NO
energy interchanges
occur across the tie
lines
o Energy is allowed to flow on the
tie lines
o Economic Model used to
determine optimum generation
expansion plan that minimize total
cost (capital+ O&M) of generation
for interconnected system for the
entire period 2012-2030

13. EXISTING INTERCONNECTION LINKS MODELED IN THE IC SCENARIO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Morocco (Oujda)- Algeria (Ghazaouet) AC OHL 225 kV
Morocco (Oujda)- Algeria (Tlemcen) AC OHL 225 kV
Morocco (Bourdim)- Algeria (Hassi Ameur) AC double circuit 400 kV
Algeria (El Hadjar)- Tunisia (Jendouba) AC OHL 400 kV
Algeria (Djebel Onk)- Tunisia (Metlaoui) AC OHL 150 kV
Algeria (El Aouinet)- Tunisia (Tajerouine) AC OHL 90kV
Algeria (El Kala)- Tunisia (Fernana) AC OHL 90 kV
Tunisia (Tataoiune)- Libya (Rowiss) AC OHL 220 kV
Tunisia (Medenine)- Libya (Abou Kammech) AC double circuit 220 kV
Libya (Tobruk) - Egypt (Saloum) AC double circuit 220 kV
Egypt (Taba) - Jordan (Aqaba) AC link 400 kV
Egypt (Toshka II) - Sudan (Wadi Halfa) AC double circuit 220 kV
Jordan (Amman North) - Syria (Dir Ali) AC OHL 400 kV
Jordan (Ibrid) - Syria (Daara) AC OHL 220 kV
Jordan (Sweimeh) - Palestine (Jericho) AC OHL 132 kV (33kV)
Syria (Tartous) - Lebanon (Deir Nbouh) AC OHL 230 kV
Syria (Damas) - Lebanon (Kasara) AC OHL 400 kV
Syria (Damas) - Lebanon (Anjar) AC OHL 66 kV
Syria (Taiym) – Iraq (Qaim) AC OHL 400 kV
Syria(Sewedia) - Iraq (Tal Abo Dhaher) AC OHL 132kV
Saudi Arabia (Al Fadili)- Kuwait (AI Zour) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
Saudi Arabia (Al Fadili)- GCC (Ghunan) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
GCC (Ghunan)- Bahrain (Qurayyah) - Bahrain (AI Jasra) AC double circuit link 400 kV
GCC (Ghunan)- GCC (Salwa) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
GCC (Salwa)- Qatar (Doha South) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
GCC (Salwa) – GCC (Silaa) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
GCC (Silaa) - UAE (Shuweihat) AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
UAE (Al Oha) - Oman (Al Wasit) AC double circuit OHL 220 kV

14. DECIDED INTERCONNECTIONS
1
Egypt (High Dam) – Sudan (New Algoreir) AC double circuit OHL 500 kV
2
Saudi Arabia (Medinah) – Egypt (new substation near Cairo) HVDC link 500 kV
3
Saudi Arabia (Kudmi) – Yemen (Bani Hoshish) BtB + AC double circuit OHL 400 kV
4
Egypt (El Arish) - Gaza Strip, Palestine (Gaza TPP) AC double circuit OHL 220 kV
5
Jordan (Amman West) - West Bank, Palestine (JDECO-4) AC OHL 400 kV

15. How the IC Scenario Improved on the BAU Scenario
IC Scenario TOTAL Electric Energy Exchanges (TWh)
100.0
90.0
86.0
2025
2030
80.2
80.0
70.0
85.3
64.6
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2015
2020

17. GOING FROM IC SCENARIO TO ICr SCENARIO
BAU Scenario
IC Scenario
ICr Scenario
o IC scenario Plus the
following interconnections
to re-enforce the grid
Interconnection
Year Entering service
1
Libya-Egypt AC interconnection 400kV
2017
2
Tunisia-Libya AC interconnection 500kV HV DC or BTB
2020
3
Saudi Arabia-Jordan BTB +AC 400kV
2020
4
Second circuit of Egypt-Jordan AC interconnection 400kV
2020
5
Second circuit of Jordan-Syria AC interconnection 400kV
2020
6
Iraq – Kuwait AC Interconnection 400kV
2020
o Model determines minimum
cumulative total cost
(capital+ O&M) of system
generation during the period
2012-2030

18. Some Salient Results for The ICr Scenario
Peak Power (GW)
500.00
30%
455.00
450.00
400.00
356.27
370.08
378.76
391.15
405.94
415.67
426.27
466.77
437.80
25%
341.21
350.00
322.10
20%
305.53
290.01
300.00
271.49
252.75
233.22
250.00
15%
204.35
200.00 180.35
10%
150.00
100.00
5%
50.00
0.00
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Thermal
Hydro
RES
Total Installed
System Peak
Reserve Margin

19. ICr SCENARIO
SHARE OF PRIMARY RESOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION IN 2015 (%)
55.2%
26.58%
NG
HFO
LFO
LCO
HCO
DS
BC
SC
10.31%
0.00%
3.87%
0.09%
0.87%
2.83%
0.16%
0.00%
0.09%
LPG
N
Osh

20. 2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario
Sudan
Egypt
Libya
New Thermal
New Hydro
New RES
Tunisia
Interconnection
Algeria
Morocco
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Million US Dollars
80,000
100,000

21. 2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario
Iraq
Lebanon
New Thermal
New Hydro
New RES
Interconnection
Syria
Jordan
0
5,000
10,000
15,000 20,000 25,000
Million US Dollars
30,000
35,000
40,000

22. 2012-2030 Investment for Generation Expansion (MUSD) in ICr Scenario
Yemen
Oman
UAE-Abu
Dhabi
New Thermal
New Hydro
Qatar
New RES
Interconnection
Bahrain
Kuwait
Saudi
Arabia
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Million US Dollars
100,000
120,000
140,000

23. THE NG SCENARIO
IC
BAU
ICr
NG Scenario
o Same as BAU scenario, but added
the following NG Pipelines and
LNG facilities
o Economic Model used to
determine optimum generation
expansion plan that minimizes
total cost (capital+ O&M) of
interconnected system for the
entire period 2012-2030

24. SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE NG SCENARIO
GWh
2,600,000
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
Demand in GWH
10%
2,465,861
2,366,028
2,269,037
9%
2,175,953
2,086,675
2,000,362
8%
1,915,105
1,833,624
1,754,932
7%
1,673,823
1,590,118
1,511,908
6%
1,434,705
1,362,605
1,288,884
5%
1,201,316
1,109,968
1,029,550
959,663
4%
800,000
3%
600,000
2%
400,000
1%
200,000
0
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Thermal
Hydro
RES
Total Demand
Increment Rate

25. COMPARING THE VARIOUS RESULTS
 Best (minimum) cost scenario is NG scenario
 Countries not in favor of NG scenario ( not enough
certainty in amount of NG available for export)
 ICr scenario is significantly better than IC scenario

26. WHAT WAS AGREED UPON
 Start with ICr scenario
 Augment it with some components from the NG
scenario, as follows:
 NG pipeline between Egypt & Libya
 NG pipeline between Libya & Tunisia
 NG pipeline between Kuwait & Iraq
 LNG terminal in Morocco
 LNG terminal in Bahrain
( 32 different combinations)

27. ALTERNATIVE APPROACH
Step 1
ICr
Only
Libya-Egypt
gas pipeline
Only
Libya-Tunisia
gas pipeline
Both
Step 2
Yes,
Iraq-Kuwait
gas pipeline
No,
Iraq-Kuwait
gas pipeline
Step 3
LNG Terminal
in
Morocco only
LNG Terminal
in
Bahrain only
LNG Terminal
in
Both Morocco &
Bahrain
ICr +NG
(Preferred
Scenario)

28. RESULTS
48” pipeline
785 km
Operational in 2018
Estimated cost $2,160
Million
ICr
+
Libya-Egypt
gas pipeline
36” pipeline
20 km
Operational in 2018
Estimated cost $280
Million
+
Iraq-Kuwait
gas pipeline
+
5.0 BC
Operational in 2018
Estimated cost $786
Million
LNG Terminal
in
Bahrain
Libya-Tunisia
gas pipeline
LNG Terminal
in
Morocco
x
x
ICr +NG
(Preferred Scenario)

29. LONG TERM AVERAGE SPECIFIC COST OF ELECTRICITY ($/MWH)
Egypt
2015
2020
2025
2030
ICr Scenario
109.6
111.2
110.7
114.2
Preferred Scenario
101.5
78.5
71.6
76.6
Kuwait
2015
2020
2025
2030
ICr Scenario
127.5
125.8
126.4
131.5
Preferred Scenario
116.1
89.2
90.4
96.0
Bahrain
2015
2020
2025
2030
ICr Scenario
105.8
107.2
114.1
118.2
Preferred Scenario
90.1
81.8
81.2
83.4

30. SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE ( ICR+NG) SCENARIO
Scenario "ICr&NG" Arab Countries Installed Capacity - Peak Power
GW
500.00
440.63
450.00
399.26
400.00
341.40
350.00
289.06
300.00
305.34
352.31
367.62
408.93
453.27
468.58
30%
422.69
372.41380.64
320.28
25%
20%
270.19
250.26
232.39
250.00
15%
203.35
200.00 179.35
10%
150.00
100.00
5%
50.00
0.00
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Thermal
Hydro
RES
Total Installed
System Peak
Reserve Margin

31. SOME SALIENT RESULTS OF THE ( ICR+NG) SCENARIO
Scenario "ICr&NG" Scenario Balance Generation - Demand
GWh
2,600,000
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
2,465,861 10%
2,366,028
2,269,037
9%
2,175,953
2,086,675
2,000,362
8%
1,915,105
1,833,624
1,754,932
7%
1,673,823
1,590,118
1,511,908
6%
1,434,705
1,362,605
1,288,884
1,201,316
5%
1,109,968
1,029,550
959,663
4%
800,000
3%
600,000
2%
400,000
1%
200,000
0
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Thermal
Hydro
RES
Total Demand
Increment Rate

32. ICr Scenario Egypt
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
(25,000)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Egypt - Saudi Arabia
Other coutries
Saudi Arabia - Egypt
Other coutries

33. Preferred Scenario Egypt
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
(25,000)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Egypt - Saudi Arabia
Other countries
Saudi Arabia - Egypt
Other countries

34. Egypt Electricity Net Exports and Imports with Saudi Arabia
Saudi exports more to
Egypt due to reduction
of cost of Saudi imports
from Kuwait and Bahrain
Egypt exports more
(imports less) due to
reduction of cost of
production in Egypt
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
Icr Scenario Net
Preferred Scenario Net
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
-15000

35. COMPARING THE
VARIOUS SCENARIOS

36. Comparison of the TOTAL NPV Capital Expenditure Costs
278,000
276,000
276,026
274,000
272,000
271,262
270,000
271,244
269,802
268,000
267,099
266,000
264,000
262,000
BAU Scenario
IC Scenario
ICr Scenario
NG Scenario
ICr & NG
Scenario

39. Comparison of the Total NPV of Operation Costs (BUSD)
1120
6
11
1100
39
1080
70
1060
1,113
1,107
1,102
1040
1,073
1,043
1020
1000
BAU Scenario
Total Scenarios
IC Scenario
Delta of IC Scenario
ICr Scenario
Delta of ICr Scenario
NG Scenario
Delta of NG Scenario
ICr&NG Scenario
Delta ICr&NG Scenario

40. NPV of Total Operating Costs 2012 - 2030
BAU Scenario
IC Scenario
ICr Scenario
NG Scenario
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Sudan
MUSD
32,599
64,671
19,488
55,160
226,617
12,894
MUSD
35,501
59,904
19,290
56,015
223,115
12,811
MUSD
36,268
59,980
19,430
57,259
222,527
12,740
MUSD
35,175
59,914
19,510
56,145
201,894
11,756
Preferred
Scenario
MUSD
36,203
60,030
19,381
57,476
205,004
12,077
Total North Africa Region and Sudan
411,430
406,636
408,203
384,394
390,171
Jordan
Syria
Lebanon
Iraq
27,191
67,349
17,959
76,297
28,006
68,130
16,781
77,821
28,810
59,465
16,871
83,244
29,058
64,796
16,702
81,195
27,827
58,586
16,768
83,169
Total JSLI countries
188,795
190,739
188,390
191,751
186,350
Saudi_Arabia
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
UAE_Abu_Dhabi
Oman
Yemen
411,151
111,672
21,340
23,474
98,218
24,166
22,790
404,442
100,932
23,565
27,321
101,652
24,392
21,701
402,129
98,302
19,814
29,527
103,696
24,846
21,684
373,971
92,004
19,795
27,272
102,001
21,993
20,793
400,636
91,441
17,049
29,826
104,620
24,137
21,657
Total GCC countries and Yemen
712,811
704,006
699,999
657,828
689,366
1,313
1,301
1,297
1,234
1,266
Country
TOTAL OPEX of Arab Countries (BUSD)

41. CAPACITY OF POWER EXCHANGE
MW
20,000
Total cross border NTC between Arab Countries
18,000
2300 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300
16,000
2300 2300 2300 2300 2300
400
14,000
400
400
5460 5460 5460 5460 5460 5460
3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960 3960
12,000
1460 1460
10,000
8,000
6,000
10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200 10200
4,000
2,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Existing
Decided
New

42. IF NUCLEAR AND RES ARE ASSUMED TO BE INSTALLED IN KSA
Assumption
12,000 MW Nuclear ( 12 plants, each rated at 1,000 MW)
8,000 MW of PV (with capacities of 250 MW, 500 MW, and 750 MW)
15,000 MW of CSP (with capacities of 400 MW, 600 MW, and 1,000 MW)

43. IF NUCLEAR AND RES ARE ASSUMED TO BE INSTALLED IN KSA
IMPACT ON GENERATION EXPANSION PROGRAM
Capacity Factor
MW
Preferred
140,000
Nuclear + RES
2020
2025
2029
56.8%
55.5%
58.1%
Cumulative Installed Capacities
57.6%
61.1%
61.4%
120,000
100,000
80,000
Addition of Nuclear
60,000
40,000
Effect of RES Units
20,000
Units with high
generation capacities
with low
generation capacities
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Preferred scenario
Nulcear+ RES Scenario

44. If Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources in KSA
Are Included in Model
Year 2020
Jordan
Jordan
1,792
2,011
1,590
11,714
10,188
0
Egypt
KSA
8,542
1,894
All GCC
9,889
Yemen
No Nuclear or RES Considered
Egypt
0
KSA
9,203
All GCC
9,802
Yemen
Both Nuclear and RES Considered

45. If Nuclear and Renewable Energy Sources in KSA
Are Included in Model
Year 2030
Jordan
Jordan
588
11,152
Egypt
371
2,118
10,058
763
KSA
All GCC
5,715
7,103
4,225
2,404
79
Yemen
No Nuclear or RES Considered
Egypt
870
KSA
All GCC
7,719
6,196
4,372
1
Yemen
Both Nuclear and RES Considered

46. RECAP OF THE STUDY
Task 1
Data Collection
Power Sector
Data Collection
Gas Sector
Task 2
Existing and
Planned Projects
N & RES
in Saudi
Allow Energy to
Flow on Tie Lines
Task 3
BAU
Scenario
IC
Scenario
NG
Scenario
Gas reinforcement
No Electrical
reinforcement
ICr
Scenario
Reinforce Electrical
Network
Sensitivity
Analysis
Lifting
Moratorium on
Gas Export in
Qatar
Preferred
Scenario
ICr +
Selected NG Projects

47. RECAP OF THE STUDY
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Task 4
•
•
•
Hour by Hour
Modeling
Power Flows Over
Line
Identify
Bottlenecks inside
countries’
networks
Preferred
Scenario
Task 5
Financial study of the
selected alternative
and electricity pricing
Task 6
Task 7
Bilateral
multilateral
trade model
Implementation plan
of the proposed
projects

48. PREVIEW OF RESULTS OF TASK 4

50. PART II
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

51. ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW)
Sudan
Egypt
Libya
Existing Thermal
New Thermal
Hydro
Tunisia
RES
Algeria
Morocco
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000

52. ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW)
Iraq
Lebanon
Existing Thermal
New Thermal
Hydro
Syria
RES
Jordan
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000

53. ICr&NG Scenario 2030 Installed Capacity (MW)
Yemen
Oman
UAE-Abu
Dhabi
Existing Thermal
Qatar
New Thermal
Hydro
RES
Bahrain
Kuwait
Saudi
Arabia
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000

54. EXPECTED FUTURE FOR RES IN THE ARAB WORLD
Renewable
(MW)
Existing Installed Capacity
at End of 2011(MW)
Total
(MW)
Renewable as
% of Total
(MW)
1,365
178,705
0.76%
3,822
8,361
7,193
6,899
85,160
114,440
82,387
81,244
4.49%
7.31%
8.73%
8.49%
27,640
468,100
5.9%
Capacity Added during Period




2012-2015
2016-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
Expected Total Installed
Capacities by 2030
i.e. Total installed RES capacity will grow from less than 1% at end of 2011 to around 6%
by end of 2030

55. FOR THE PERIOD 2012- 2030
ICr Scenario
Preferred Scenario
MW of RES to be added (MW)
27,790
27,790
% of New Generating Capacity
5.94%
5.93%
GWH Produced from RES Sources
96,681
96,681
% of Energy Produced from All the New Generating
Units
6.32%
6.33%
Cost of New RES Generating Capacity ($ Million)
93,970
93,970
% of Total Cost of New Generating Capacity
17.80%
17.63%

56. WHICH MEANS
• Out of total investments by the Arab countries, during the period
2012-2030, to increase the installed capacity of their generating units
• Around 18% of that new investment will
be to construct RES units
• The RES installed generating units will represent
• Around 8% of the installed capacity
during the period 2012-2030
• In 2030, the RES generating units will produce
• Around 5% of the energy produced
during that year from all generating units
added during the period 2012-2030

57. PART III
IMPACT OF RES ON THE PAN-ARAB
INTERCONNECTION GRID

58. POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE DUE TO THE
INTRODUCTION OF RES IN THE ARAB WORLD
•
•
•
•
•
Voltage Sags
Operation Conflicts
Interference with Relaying
Sympathetic Tripping
Harmonics

59. VOLTAGE SAGS
Utility
No Help Here
Adjacent
Customer
RES May Help
RES Facility
How RES affects voltage Sags
 The RES influence on sags at its own load is aided by the impedance of
the service transformer, which provides some isolation from the source
of the sag on the utility system.
 However, this impedance hinders the ability of the RES to provide any
relief to other loads on the same feeder.

60. OPERATION CONFLICTS
Only this device must
operate to clear fault
feeders
Breaker
Recloser
Fused Laterals
Conflict between Distributed Generation and Re-closing
 Reclosing utility breaker after a fault is a very common practice
 Most of the transmission lines are overhead, and it is common to have
temporary faults
 Reclosing presents two special problems with respect to RES:
 RES must disconnect early in the reclose interval to allow time for
the arc to dissipate, so that the reclose will be successful
 Reclosing on wind turbines, can cause damage to the generator or
turbine

61. INTERFERENCE WITH RELAYING
Normal Zone of
Protection
Reduced
Zone of
Protection
Utility Breaker
Fault
Reduced Source
Current
Contribution
Generator Infeed
Reduction of Reach of Distance Relays due to the Presence of RES
 RES infeed can reduce the reach of the utility relay
 When the total RES capacity increases to a certain amount, the infeed
into faults can desensitize the relays and leave remote sections of the
feeder unprotected
 A low amount (high impedance) fault near the end of the feeder is more
likely to go undetected until it does sufficient damage to develop into a
major fault

62. SYMPATHETIC TRIPPING
12.47 kV
A
Fault
B
2-MW Wind Turbine
Presence of RES may cause Sympathetic Tripping
 Sympathetic tripping describes a condition where a breaker that does not see fault
current trips "in sympathy" with the breaker that did
 The most common circuit condition on utility distribution feeders is back feed into a
ground fault
 If the utility feeder breakers do not have directional sensing, the ground relay on
feeder B will see the RES contribution as a fault and trip the breaker needlessly
The main solution to the problem is to use directional overcurrent relaying

63. HARMONICS
RES
Flow of Third Harmonics in Delta-wye Transformers

64. POTENTIAL PROBLEMS THAT COULD ARISE DUE TO THE
INTRODUCTION OF RES IN THE ARAB WORLD CONCLUSION
Since the RES included in the study are not going to be in the
form of distributed generation, but in the form of power plants,
connected to the grid with step-up transformers, their effect on
the transmission grids (and interconnection lines) should be
minimal

65. SOME THOUGHTS ON SYSTEM STABILITY
• In general, mitigating measures need to be taken if RES generating capacity
reaches 25% of total installed capacity.
• In preferred scenario, the percent of RES generation will only reach 6% of
total installed capacity by 2030.
• If KSA installs 23 GW of RES (8,000 MW PV and 15,000 MW CSP), the ratio of
RES to total installed generating capacity will go up to around 11% (still safe).
• The reserve generation margin, for all scenarios considered, does not drop
below 15%, in any of the years studied. Therefore sudden loss of large
amounts of wind or solar generating capacity should not be a major concern.

66. CONCLUSION
• The PAI study could act as a road map for developing the electrical and gas
infrastructures in the Arab world for the next two decades.
• Renewable energy sources should play an increasing role in meeting the
power and energy needs of the Arab world countries (from less than 1%
currently to somewhere between 6 and 11% by 2030).
• These ratios are still within safe limits :
< 15% which is the reserve generation margin
< 25% which is the universally accepted upper limit for the RES to
total installed capacity
• Even with the above, measures should be taken to mitigate any ill-effects
that may arise.

67. Thank you
For your patience