1.
Agricultural Trade in Central Asia:
Trends and Policies
Kamiljon Akramov
IFPRI
Roman Mogilevskii
University of Central Asia
ReSAKSS-Asia conference, Siem Reap, Cambodia, 25 September 2013

2.
Contents
• The role of trade in food supply
• Trends in agricultural trade in Central Asia
• Agriculture-related trade policies
• Recent and anticipated policy changes and
their impact on agricultural trade

3.
Trade and Food Supply
• Agriculture is export-oriented in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and
much less so in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
• Imports of food are very important in all countries but
Uzbekistan
21%
7% 8%
32%
28%
23%
19%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
%oftotaloutputofagriculture
andfoodindustry
Contributionof trade intosupply of and
demandfor agricultural products andfood
Agrifood exports Agrifood imports

4.
Trade and Food Supply (2)
• Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are critically dependent on imports of
staple food
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Supply Demand Supply Demand
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan
Grain balance, 2012
Domestic production Imports Domestic consumption Exports

5.
Trends in Agricultural Trade
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
3.6
4.2
4.8
2000 2012 2000 2012
Exports Imports
BillionUSD
Kazakhstan
Trade value (lhs) % of total exports/imports (rhs) % GDP (rhs)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2012 2000 2012
Exports Imports
MillionUSD
Kyrgyzstan
Trade value (lhs) % of total exports/imports (rhs) % GDP (rhs)
0%
7%
14%
21%
0
250
500
750
2000 2011 2000 2011
Exports Imports
MillionUSD
Tajikistan
Trade value (lhs) % of total exports/imports (rhs) % GDP (rhs)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
800
1600
2400
3200
4000
2000 2010 2000 2010
Exports Imports
MillionUSD
Uzbekistan
Trade value (lhs) % of total exports/imports (rhs) % GDP (rhs)

6.
Trends in Agricultural Trade (2)
• Agricultural trade has dramatically grown in all
countries of the region for the last 10-12 years
• Importance of agricultural exports declined
everywhere but in Tajikistan
• Share of agricultural imports in total imports has been
almost constant in KAZ, KGZ and UZB and increased in
TJK
• Role of agricultural trade in the economies (% GDP)
mostly declined/stagnated except imports in KAZ and
TJK

7.
Structure of Agricultural Exports
• Key agricultural exports are wheat and flour (KAZ) and cotton (UZB)
• Other important exports in the region are fruits and vegetables
Grain and flour
71%
Other products
29%
Kazakhstan- Exports
Dairy products
9%
Vegetables
33%
Fruits
21%
Prepared foods
11%
Cotton
12%
Other products
14%
Kyrgyzstan- Exports
Vegetables
6%
Fruits
12%
Cotton
78%
Other products
4%
Tajikistan- Exports
Vegetables
9%
Fruits
22%
Cotton
57%
Inputsfor
agriculture
6%
Other products
6%
Uzbekistan- Exports

8.
Structure of Agricultural Imports
• All countries import prepared foods, grain and flour (except KAZ),
meat (!), and inputs/fertilizers (except UZB)
Grain and flour
30%
Prepared foods
33%
Other products
37%
Uzbekistan- Imports
Meat
6%
Grain and flour
41%
Prepared foods
31%
Other products
22%
Tajikistan- Imports
Meat
9%
Grain and flour
17%
Prepared foods
41%
Inputsfor
agriculture
8%
Other products
25%
Kyrgyzstan- Imports
Meat
8%
Dairy products
9%
Vegetables
4%
Fruits
11%
Prepared foods
43%
Inputsfor
agriculture
6%
Other products
19%
Kazakhstan- Imports

9.
Geography of Agricultural Trade
• Central Asian countries are important partners to each other for
agricultural trade (much more than for non-agri trade)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Agri trade Non-agri trade Agri trade Non-agri trade Agri trade Non-agri trade Agri trade Non-agri trade
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Exports
CA neighbors Russia China EU Other countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Agri trade Non-agri trade Agri trade Non-agri trade Agri trade Non-agri trade Agri trade Non-agri trade
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Imports
CA neighbors Russia China EU Other countries
• Russia is
important
partner for all
countries of the
region both for
exports and
imports
• China and EU (very
important for non-
agri trade) are
significant
markets for cotton
exports only

10.
Agricultural Trade Policies in Central Asia
• MFN tariffs are rather high
• Free trade regime for each other, Russia and other FSU
• Weighted tariffs are much lower due to concentration
of agri trade on neighbors and Russia
0
5
10
15
20
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan
Tariifsfor agricultural goods
Simple average MFN applied Trade weighted average

11.
Agricultural Trade Policies in Central Asia
(2)
• Non-tariff measures are very important for regional
agricultural trade
• Sanitary and phytosanitary measures are used often,
especially by Russia and Kazakhstan (after creation of
the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia)
• Borders between these countries are “thick” – border
crossing is expensive, time-consuming and
unpredictable
• Informal trade in agricultural goods is widespread,
traders look for and find bypass routes to avoid formal
trade restrictions
• Re-export schemes (e.g. UZB→KGZ→KAZ for fertilizers
or RUS→KGZ→TJK for gasoline) are used frequently

12.
Policy Changes in Central Asia
• Changes: creation of the Customs Union (CU) of BKR and WTO
accession of Russia, Tajikistan
• Expected WTO accession of Kazakhstan
• Expected CU accession of Kyrgyzstan and, later, Tajikistan
• No significant impact of the CU creation on agricultural trade in
Kazakhstan and other CA countries
• Complicated assessment of possible CU accession of Kyrgyzstan
due to informality of key economic activities
• Gains – better access to major markets for KGZ agricultural and
food products (conditionally SPS issues addressed)
• Losses – reduction in re-export business with implications for
population incomes, consumer prices
• Unclear prospects for labor migration – key issue also for
Tajikistan