Global food security faces complex challenges such as food price volatility, population growth, and climate change. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address these challenges and protect the poor. Agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must play a new role in achieving broader development outcomes such as improving nutrition, promoting climate change adaptation, building conflict resilience, and narrowing gender gaps.

1. Global Food Security Challenges and opportunities:The New Role of Agriculture Shenggen FanDirector General International Food Policy Research Institute USAID Agriculture Core Course, Washington, DC, June 6, 2011

2. Key messages Global food security challenges remain large and complex A comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor people The new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged for achieving broad development outcomes

3. Global food security challenges remain large and complex

4. Challenges to global food security include Food price volatility Energy/Biofuels Population growth and demographic changes Land and water constraints Climate change Conflicts

5. Global food price hikes and volatility Global hikes since June 2010 Maize: 100% Wheat: 98% Source: Data from FAO 2011

6. Domestic prices are also rising rapidly Retail prices in China, national average Wholesale prices in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa Retail prices in Vietnam, Dong Thap Retail prices in Indonesia, national average Source: Data from FAO 2011

7. High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes vary Self-reported food insecurity in select countries Source: Headey 2011

8. Stronger link between oil and food prices influence food security Rising oil prices make biofuels more profitable, and agricultural production more expensive Correlation between oil and food prices have increased overtime (correlation coefficient 0.93 since 2000) Source: Data from IMF 2011 Note: Oil = Average crude oil price of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate

9. Rapidly growing population and demographic change World population reaches 9 billion by 2050 All growth to come from urban areas Most growth to come from developing countries Source: FAO 2009 Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food

10. Climate change will affect average crop yields NCAR A2a Source: Nelson et al. 2009.

11. Conflicts affect food security and development Incidence ratio of undernourishment, poverty and other ills for fragile, recovering, and non-fragile developing countries Source: World Bank 2011

12. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor people

13. Actions needed to reduce food price volatility and protect the poor

14. Invest in productive social safety nets Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development program Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009) Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) With access to both safety nets and agric. support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009) Nigeria Fadama II Development Project Increased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)

15. Establish global and regional strategic grain reserves Global emergency reserve: created with grain donations from large food exporters and producers, e.g. US, France, China, India located also in poor food importing countries, e.g. Horn of Africa owned and managed by an institution such as WFP Some regional initiatives are emerging e.g. Asean+3 Emergency Rice Reserve, Sahel and West Africa Regional Food Stocks (RESOGEST) etc. Properly managed reserves can address food crises, but operating costs must be low and challenges must be overcome

17. US$353 billion loss in world welfareQuick completion of the Doha Round is crucial

18. Promote smallholder productivity Invest in agricultural R&D and infrastructure Agricultural research and new technologies tailored to smallholders Access to high-quality seeds and fertilizer Rural infrastructure (electricity and feeder roads in particular) Promote innovations for smallholders Financial services e.g. community banking Risk-management mechanisms e.g. weather-based index insurance Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives

19. The new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged

20. Agric-led growth is still important for poverty reduction… Poverty-growth elasticities Source: Diao et al. 2010

21. …agric-led growth is still important for hunger reduction Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07) Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010

23. promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation

24. building conflict resilience

26. improved nutritional content of main staple foods

27. production of more diverse foods of higher nutritional content

29. Building conflict resilience Agriculture, especially small-scale farming, is the largest source of jobs in many conflict-prone countries (World Bank, 2011) Agriculture has the potential to reduce the main causes of conflict e.g.poverty, underemployment, and inequalities in natural resources (Collier et al. 2003) Agriculture can help to re-establish livelihoods and build resilience in conflict-prone countries (World Bank, 2011)

30. Narrowing gender gaps Women make up a majority of small farmers Lower productivity persists in female-owned plots and female-headed households (Peterman et al. 2010) If women had the same access to productive resources as men (FAO 2011) -> total agricultural output could increase by 2.5 to 4% -> global number of undernourished people could reduce by 12 to 17%

31. Investments and policies must leverage the new role of smallholder agriculture for development