ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper 2024 - State of the Industry

©2024 GCO, LLC. Do not reprint without permission.
March 2024
Hobby Games – State of the Industry
ICv2 WHITE PAPER

ICv2 covers the categories that drive geek culture
• Hobby games—TCGs, RPGs, miniatures, board and card games
• Comics, graphic novels, and manga
• Showbiz and merch tied to geek culture properties

In print: Internal Correspondence

ICv2 Pro: For Serious Users and Supporters

ICv2 Direct: Direct from Publishers to Stores

Hobby Games Market Analysis
• Where do we get information?
– Interviews – Publishers, distributors, retailers, others
– Publicly traded company information
– Circana (f/k/a NPD) reports
– Kickstarter data
• Estimates built up by category

2023 – Eking out a Tough Win
• Nominal increase in overall hobby games sales
– Less than inflation
– Difficult-to-replicate events (e.g., Magic Lord of the
Rings product)
• Retailers mostly healthy despite slowdown
• Coming off great year in 2022, and the unwinding
of Covid demand trends

2023 Trends - Consumers
• Consumers spending more cautiously, but still
spending – price resistance
• Continued decline in speculative collectible
purchasing
• Continued return to in-store play

2023 Trends - Publishing
• Product proliferation
• Increased competition at publisher level
• Increased direct-to-consumer sales by publishers
• Increased direct-to-retailer sales by publishers
• Ongoing supply chain issues – Red Sea, Panama
Canal

What Is the Hobby Games Market?
• Games produced for a “gamer” market
• Usually but not always sold in the hobby games
channel
• The market for those games, regardless of which
channel

Total Hobby Games Market

15th Year of Hobby Channel Growth
• Hobby channel up 2%
• Up 2/3 in previous
three years
• 15th year of growth!
• Some categories down
• Store count flat to up
YEAR
Hobby Channel
Growth Rate
2023 2%
2022 10%
2021 30%
2020 15%
2019 5%
2018 10%

2023 by Channel
• Hobby up slightly
• Mass and specialty retail flat or down in
everything except TCGs
• Crowdfunding down, and more difficult

Hobby Games Market by Category
• Collectibles, minis
only 2023 growth
categories
• Adjustments to
crowdfunding
calculations raised
RPGs
• Lifestyle gamer
products held up
best

Collectible Games

2023 Collectibles Trends
• Both hobby and mass/specialty retail up a little
• Organized play returning to pre-pandemic levels
• Singles prices deflating, flippers getting burned,
and out

2023 Collectibles by Line
• Pokemon roughly flat after massive 2022
• Magic: The Gathering up due to Lord of the Rings
– Concerns about too much Magic product
• Successful launch on Disney Lorcana
– Flushed out flippers after first wave
– Brought back lapsed players and added Disney fans
• One Piece up on mostly better supply

2023 Collectibles by Line
• After those three games, rest mostly flat or down
• More Kickstarter games hitting trade

Non-Collectible Miniature Games

Games Workshop Up
• According to financials, up in North America
• Launch of new Warhammer 40,000 edition
• Improvements in backlist and new product
supply, but still room for improvement
• Shortening of pre-order cycle is hurting sales to
the trade
• Price resistance

2023 Minis Trends
• WizKids D&D minis down some, reduced SKU
count
• Battletech fastest growth
• Does Shatterpoint displace other Star Wars games?
• Painting still strong, play increasing

Hobby Board Games

Tough Year for Board Games
• Post-Covid Target mom declines continue
• Hobby gamers continue to buy
• No massive hits, but hobby hits (Cascadia,
Dorfromantik, Flamecraft, Root)

Tough Year for Board Games
• Price resistance at multiple levels
• Fewer reorders from retailers
• Fewer reprints from publishers
• Publisher stress
• Decline overstated because of ICv2 crowdfunding
allocation change

Hobby Card and Dice Games

2023 Card Games
• Price resistance, rotation toward small box games
• Same pressures on publishers as board games
• Change in ICv2 allocation of crowdfunding
categories overstates decline

Roleplaying Games

RPG Sales Decline in Trade Channels
• Dungeons & Dragons tabletop sales down (30%?)
– WotC reported tabletop up 1%, Magic up 3-5%
– OGL impacted lifestyle gamers, while new players
oblivious (core books solid, new products down)
– New edition coming
– Movie box office meh
– Growth in digital, D&D Beyond

RPG Sales Decline in Trade Channels
• Older D&D players migrating to other lines
• Pathfinder, others are beneficiaries
• Change in ICv2 crowdfunding allocation (and
increase in 2023 crowdfunding) shows increase
despite trade decline
• Remains way ahead of 2019

Fall/Holiday Trends
• Working hard for the money
• Solid consumer purchasing despite inflation
• Other than TCGs, no big hits

Top Collectible Games – Hobby Channel
Fall 2023
Rank Title Publisher
1 Pokemon TCG TPCI
2 Magic: The Gathering Wizards of the Coast
3 Disney Lorcana TCG Ravensburger
4 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami
5 One Piece Card Game Bandai
6 Weiss Schwarz Bushiroad
7 Flesh and Blood Legend Story
8 Icons of the Realms WizKids
9 Marvel HeroClix WizKids
10 Cardfight!! Vanguard Bushiroad

Top Collectible Games – Mass Channel
Fall 2023
1 Pokemon TPCI
3 Yu-GI-Oh! TCG Konami
5 Disney Lorcana Ravensburger

Top Collectible Games – Overall
Fall 2023
1 Pokemon TCG TPCI
3 Disney Lorcana Ravensburger
4 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami

Top Miniatures Lines – Fall 2023
1 Warhammer 40,000 Games Workshop
2 Nolzur's Marvelous Miniatures WizKids
3 Battletech Catalyst Game Labs
4 Star Wars: Shatterpoint Atomic Mass Games
5 Marvel Crisis Protocol Atomic Mass Games

Top Hobby Channel
Board Games – Fall 2023
1 Wingspan Stonemaier
2 Root Leder Games
3 Expeditions Stonemaier
4 Cascadia AEG
5 Betrayal at House on the Hill Avalon Hill
6 Heat Days of Wonder
7 Ticket to Ride Days of Wonder
8 Everdell Starling Games
9 Dune Imperium Dire Wolf
10 BOOoop. Smirk & Dagger

Top Hobby Channel Card,
Dice Games – Fall 2023
1 Marvel Legendary Upper Deck
2 Codenames Czech Games, The Op
3 Dominion Rio Grande
4 Coup Indie Boards & Cards
5 Taco Cat Goat Cheese Pizza Dolphin Hat
6 Splendor Space Cowbooys
7 Exit Thames & Kosmos
8 Uno Mattel
9 Exploding Kittens Exploding Kittens
10 Unstable Unicorns TeeTurtle

Top Roleplaying Games – 2023
1 Dungeons and Dragons Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder Paizo
3 Cyberpunk Red R. Talsorian
4 World of Darkness Renegade Game Studios
5 Starfinder Paizo
6 Warhammer 40,000 RPG Cubicle 7
7 Marvel Multiverse Roleplaying Marvel
8 Kobold 5E Books Kobold Press
9 Call of Cthulhu Chaosium
10 Pirate Borg Free League

2024
• Consumer seems solid, but always event risk
• Competition for retailer shelf space heats up
• Shorter tails, but demand still there
• Publisher pressures ultimately likely to slow
releases
• Publishers and trade generally expecting market
decline in 2024

2024
• Tough comps for TCGs
– Nothing like Lord of the Rings for Magic
– No big drivers for Pokemon
• Full year of Disney Lorcana
• Yu-Gi-Oh!, One Piece could be up
• Other launches (Altered, expectations mixed on
Star Wars)
• Can other categories find growth (new D&D)?

ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper 2024 - State of the Industry

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