Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.
Similar a Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.
Similar a Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012. (20)
Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.
2. WALES AGRICULTURE/FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONS
ALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD
2007
N2O - 2.83 Mt CO2 e
[from microbial action in soils and manures,
inorganic N application, manure and leaching]
CH4 - 2.72 Mt CO2e
[from enteric ruminant activity & manure]
CO2 - 0.48 Mt CO2 e
[on farm emissions]
- 2.5-3 Mt CO2 e
[from food chain, fertilizer production and other inputs]
3. WALES AGRICULTURE / FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONS
ALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD
2007
Total - 8.5 - 9.0 Mt CO2 e
Equivalent to ~ 3t CO2 e/person/annum
(20% of Wales' emissions)
4. WALES, UK and EUROPEAN TARGE
80% REDUCTION IN GHG EMISSIONS BY 2050
5. PRESSURES
1. anti meat/vegetarian/vegan lobby
2. human health issues [obesity/heart
disease]
3. environmental impact of production
4. impact of world food animal production on
grain resources etc
5. land use/forest clearance
1. population growth
2. increasing demand for meat and dairy
products due to improving living standard
3. desertification of marginal semi-arid
rangelands
7. INVENTORY METHODS
MESURIADAU STOCRESTR
Agriculture emissions are estimated from multiplying annual
activity data (ruminant numbers, fertiliser use etc) by
emission factors/unit source.
Land use emissions are based on the annual changes in
carbon content of soils and biomass per unit area,
multiplied by estimates of the areas undergoing land use
change.
9. WALES LAND USE AND LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS- 2007
ALLYRIADAU DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID YN NEFNYDD TIR CYMRU-
2007
(kt CO2e)
iomaBss burning (grass / moors / brush)
32
Liming of grassland and cropland
44
Land to forest
-1,430
10. Wales N2O emissions inventory –
agriculture and land use 2007 [kt CO2e]
Agricultural soils – total 2,187
Fertiliser application 400
Manure application 230
Grazing – direct depositions 700
Crop residues 20
11. Annual abatement impacts (kt CO2e) from 10, 20 and 30 year
tree planting programmes at 5,000 ha/year averaged for
decadal periods based on FR CARBINE model.
Broadleaves Mixed Continuous Total
Unmanaged Cover
Gley soil Loam soil
Planting 2500 2500 5000
programme (ha/yr)
Length of 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30
programme (years)
Total Woodland 25000 50000 75000 25000 50000 75000 50000 100000 150000
Creation (ha)
2010-2019 7 7 7 23 23 23 30 30 30
2020-2029 206 211 211 289 310 310 495 522 522
12. Food commodity emissions from LCA study
Standardised Consumption Total Welsh Food calories / kg
carbon footprint (kg / person / year) footprint
(kg CO2e / (kt CO2e / year)
kg product)
Lamb meat 32.0 2.9 271 2,500
Cheese 12.5 4.6 171 3,833
Liquid milk 1.7 26.2 131 615
Strawberries 1.3 2.6 10 302
Potatoes 1.0 26.0 79 1,000
13. RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL
• a significant hydro power potential of at least 0.3 TWh of electricity in
upland Wales
• community or personal wind energy could amount to 1 TWh
electricity. The solar heat potential on individual homes is substantial
but not quantifiable.
• biomass such as short rotation coppice willow on the land above 300
m or miscanthus at lower altitudes could generate about 2-3 TWh as
heat or 1/3 of this as electricity
• 250,000 dairy cattle at 36 kWh/day could generate 330 GWh of heat
which could be used in horticultural greenhouse enterprises etc
• compared with the total problem the potential contribution of our
small-scale rural micro renewables is relatively small – maybe about
3 TWh per year of electricity and a similar amount as heat. In terms
of emissions savings this would total about 1,500-2,000 kt CO2e.
14. SCENARIOS 1 AND 2
Scenario 1
Based on a modified ‘business as usual’ with
incremental technical improvements to deliver
emission reductions in the range 10-15% by 2020.
Scenario 2
A market-driven scenario.
15. SCENARIO 3 AND 4
Scenario 3
Based on major imposed cuts of around 60-70 %
in ruminant animal numbers
Scenario 4
A lower intensity scenario which would be based
on mixed farming, reduction of animal products in
diet and waste reduction
16. SCENARIO 5
• dairy and associated beef production and anaerobic
digestion
• woodland management and expansion
• on farm productivity improvement – sheep
• renewable energy – wind, biomass, hydro, solar
• increased efficiency, less waste and better focussed
management
• increased arable, horticultural and greenhouse crop
production
• reduction of animal products in diet and waste
reduction
• personal/individual responsibility
17.
18. GHG Source Output in Output in Output with Interventions
2007 GHGI 2020 (BAU)
2020 2030 2040
Forest – biomass burning 21
Grass – biomass burning 6
Settlement – biomass burning 4
Grass – liming 37
Cropland – liming 7
Land to settlement 688 694
Land to cropland 1,053 1,082 1334 1235 1174
Harvested wood products 68 -806
19. SUMMARY / Crynodeb
The preferred scenario would by Pe bai’n cael ei weithredu’n llawn,
2040, if fully implemented: byddai’r senario dewisol erbyn
• Reduce net emissions of 2040 yn:
agriculture and land use from • Lleihau allyriadau net
5,200 kt CO2e to around oddiwrth amaethyddiaeth a
2,000 kt CO2e. defnydd tir o 5,200 kt CO2e
• Produce about 3 TWh of oddeutu 2,000 kt CO2e.
renewable heat and 3 TWh of • Cynhyrchu tua 3 TWh o wres
renewable electricity. This would adnewyddadwy a 3 TWh o
save a further drydan adnewyddadwy.
1,500-2,000kt of CO2 e emissions Byddai hyn yn arbed 1,500-2,000
annually. kt CO2e o allyriadau pellach yn
flynyddol.