This deck was presented by Mohit Dubey (Carwale) at the #TiEInstitute session for early stage companies in April 2013.
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4. What’s my solution?
1. Am I different or am I better?
Beware of cheaper, faster, better disease!
5.
6. Start-ups win by being different. The goal of a new
venture is to dominate, to own a new category!
First, name your category and then only do anything
else like logo, name, messaging, viral- campaign etc!
When successful, the category is known by the startup!
8. What was the first successful MP3 player?
First mover loses to First-minder
Creative Technology's product, the Creative
Nomad Jukebox.
What was the giant MP3 winner?
Apple’s iPod
9. Who will pay for my solution?
What is my #1 source of revenue?
If you have 5 different source of revenue, then something is wrong. Pick 1.
10. How do I estimate market size of category that doesn’t
exist?
Top Down: TAM - Total Available Market
Focus: Ideal Customer = SAM - Served Available Market
Sales: Customer Adoption = SOM = Share of Market
11. Market estimate for an app that will scan food dishes and monitor calories!
1.How many end users have an over-weight problem?
2.How many have an under-weight problem?
3.For (1) and (2) how many are in a) U.S b) Europe c) China d)India e) Rest of the world
4.What portion of them own a smartphone?
5.What portion are
• Obese
• Over weight by 30 pounds or more
• Think of themselves as "over-weight"
• Have serious (doctor treated) health problems related to excess weight
6.What portion are
• Seriously under-weight
• Chronically under-weight
• Psychologically under-weight
7.The total of the above equals TAM
• Units
• Price per Unit
• Dollars
Source:nesheimgroup.typepad.com
12. Market estimate for an app that will scan food dishes and monitor calories!
Focus: Ideal Customer = SAM = Served Available Market
1. Which segments of TAM is your product most appealing to
(pick 6: Seriously under-weight, Chronically under-weight, Psychologically under-
weight )?
a. Which segment is most eager to use your product?
b. What 2 related segments are next as measured by
product appeal?
2. In what year will you offer products for each of those 3
market segments?
3. Line up these 3 segments like Bowling Pins
4. The total of the above equals SAM
Units x Price per Unit = $
Calculate % of TAM
Source:nesheimgroup.typepad.com
13. Market estimate for an app that will scan food dishes and monitor calories!
Sales: Customer Adoption = SOM = Share of Market
For each of the 3 Bowling Pins:
a. At what rate (% of each of the 3 market segments in
SAM) will customers purchase your product, each
year, for five years.
Units
Price per Unit
Dollars
b. Add the 3 sets of numbers to get your Sales.
Total Units
Total Dollars
Average Selling Price
% of SAM
Source:nesheimgroup.typepad.com
14. Market estimate for an app that will scan food dishes and monitor calories!
Boundaries
1. SAM in early years should be less than 25% of TAM, rarely
over 50%.
2. SAM below 10% is too small, or TAM is too large, not
focused enough, lacks meaning.
3. SOM over 30% of SAM is rare. Gorillas of new markets
settle in around 30%
• SOM below 10% is too small.
• Your adoption rare may be too conservative.
• Or your product is rather boring, not appealing.
Source:nesheimgroup.typepad.com
