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Smart 
Ci)es|Smarter 
Ci)zens? 
-­‐ 
Tim 
Jones 
| 
Vienna 
| 
25 
Nov 
2014
World’s 
largest 
open 
foresight 
programme 
CollaboraAons 
and 
change 
since 
2010 
QuesAons 
for 
the 
next 
decade 
Scope 
Future 
Agenda 
2010 
Recent 
Developments 
3 
Future 
Challenges 
This 
a6ernoon, 
we 
will 
explore 
three 
different 
perspecAves 
of 
the 
evolving 
smart, 
digital, 
intelligent 
city, 
discuss 
some 
implicaAons 
and 
also 
raise 
some 
quesAons 
for 
further 
debate.
Future 
Agenda 
2010: 
The 
World 
in 
2020
Future 
Agenda 
The 
Future 
Agenda 
is 
the 
world’s 
largest 
open 
foresight 
program 
that 
looks 
at 
the 
big 
issues 
for 
the 
next 
decade 
so 
that 
organisaAons 
can 
bePer 
focus 
and 
sAmulate 
innovaAon.
Future 
Agenda 
view 
of 
the 
Future 
of 
Ci)es 
The 
first 
program 
in 
2010 
shared 
50 
insights 
on 
2020 
that 
have 
been 
used 
widely. 
Of 
these, 
a 
number 
were 
specifically 
related 
to 
the 
changes 
taking 
place 
in 
our 
ciAes.
Imbalanced 
Popula)on 
Growth 
By 
2020 
we 
will 
add 
another 
750m 
people 
to 
the 
planet, 
and 
mostly 
in 
places 
least 
able 
to 
accommodate 
them: 
With 
a 
conAnued 
shi6 
to 
urban 
living, 
we 
are 
stressing 
the 
system.
Developing 
World 
Mobility 
Next 
year 
32 
people 
an 
hour 
will 
be 
moving 
into 
Shanghai, 
39 
into 
Kinshasa 
and 
Jakarta, 
42 
into 
Mumbai 
and 
Karachi, 
50 
into 
Dhaka 
and 
58 
into 
Lagos.
Richer 
Poorer 
Widening 
differences 
in 
wealth 
between 
and 
within 
urban 
and 
rural 
communiAes 
will 
conAnue 
to 
extend 
the 
gap 
between 
rich 
and 
poor 
-­‐ 
but 
they 
will 
sAll 
need 
each 
other.
Energy 
Consump)on 
We 
know 
that 
Asian 
ciAes 
are 
more 
efficient 
than 
American 
ciAes: 
Los 
Angeles 
uses 
25% 
of 
its 
GDP 
in 
moving 
people 
and 
goods. 
In 
Hong 
Kong 
the 
corresponding 
figure 
is 
only 
5%.
Dense 
Ci)es 
As 
urban 
migraAon 
increases, 
efficient, 
densely 
populated 
ciAes, 
not 
distributed 
opAons, 
are 
the 
ideal 
benchmarks 
for 
more 
sustainable 
places 
to 
live.
Paris 
– 
The 
Role 
Model? 
For 
many, 
the 
blueprint 
for 
the 
sustainable, 
livable 
city 
is 
Paris: 
Many 
urban 
planners 
and 
architects 
see 
this 
as 
a 
highly 
efficient 
and 
social 
urban 
model 
that 
is 
aPracAve 
to 
residents.
Ubiquitous 
Data 
Access 
We 
will 
be 
connected 
everywhere 
-­‐ 
everything 
that 
can 
benefit 
from 
a 
network 
connecAon 
will 
have 
one. 
50 
billion 
devices 
and 
a 
trillion 
sensors 
will 
be 
generaAng 
so 
much 
data 
that 
we 
are 
doubling 
capacity 
every 
month.
Intelligent 
Highways 
Mesh 
networks 
and 
ubiquitous 
mobile 
connecAons 
deliver 
the 
automated 
highways 
ambiAon 
and 
so 
improve 
safety, 
increase 
capacity 
and 
reduce 
congesAon.
Intelligent 
buildings 
Smarter, 
bePer 
connected, 
self-­‐monitoring 
homes 
and 
offices 
provide 
safer, 
more 
secure, 
low 
energy 
buildings 
able 
to 
self-­‐manage 
uAliAes.
Mega 
City 
States 
Increasing 
compeAAon 
between 
ciAes 
over-­‐rides 
naAonal 
prioriAes 
as 
mayors 
lead 
bold 
iniAaAves 
to 
place 
their 
ciAes 
at 
the 
forefront 
of 
the 
global 
stage: 
The 
C40 
becomes 
more 
influenAal 
than 
the 
G20.
Recent 
Developments 
and 
Collabora)ons
Smart 
Cars 
Every 
vehicle 
has 
thousands 
of 
sensor-­‐connected 
computers 
that 
collecAvely 
deliver 
the 
intelligent 
car 
that 
is 
able 
to 
monitor 
itself, 
its 
environment 
and 
its 
passengers.
Autonomous 
Vehicles 
Led 
by 
urban 
delivery 
pods 
and 
long 
distance 
trucks, 
the 
rise 
of 
automaAcally 
driven 
vehicles 
leads 
to 
the 
reinvenAon 
of 
the 
travel 
experience 
around 
infotainment.
From 
Cars 
To 
People 
We 
are 
seeing 
a 
shi6 
of 
focus 
from 
ciAes 
designed 
for 
cars 
to 
ciAes 
designed 
for 
people. 
The 
influence 
of 
GM, 
Ford 
and 
Exxon 
is 
giving 
way 
to 
a 
new 
group 
of 
authoritaAve 
bodies.
Amsterdam 
– 
People 
Centric 
Transport 
O6en 
seen 
as 
Europe’s 
most 
sustainable 
city, 
Amsterdam 
is 
the 
global 
leader 
in 
supporAng 
non-­‐motorized 
transport. 
70% 
of 
mobility 
in 
Amsterdam 
is 
either 
walking 
or 
cycling.
The 
Smart 
City 
Ideal 
Many 
see 
the 
perfect 
smart 
city 
to 
be 
one 
where 
renewable 
energy 
systems, 
effecAve 
transport 
networks 
and 
digital 
infrastructures 
all 
align 
to 
create 
a 
super-­‐efficient 
sustainable 
environment 
for 
everyone.
Global 
Drivers 
of 
Change 
In 
the 
past 
few 
years 
we 
have 
seen 
clear 
progress 
on 
the 
Smart 
CiAes 
ambiAon 
– 
much 
of 
which 
has 
been 
focused 
on 
collaboraAon 
with 
some 
key 
mulAnaAonals.
IBM 
| 
Rio 
de 
Janeiro 
IBM’s 
Smarter 
CiAes 
/ 
Smarter 
Planet 
iniAaAve 
has 
been 
embraced 
by 
mayors 
in 
many 
key 
ciAes: 
Massive 
sensor 
networks, 
cloud-­‐based 
storage 
and 
predicAve 
analyAcs 
have 
all 
been 
coming 
to 
the 
fore.
Cisco 
| 
Songdo 
Songdo 
in 
Korea 
has 
embraced 
Cisco’s 
‘Smart+Connected’ 
view 
of 
the 
city. 
Ubiquitous 
data 
sharing, 
automated 
buildings, 
high-­‐speed 
networks 
and 
pervasive 
interacAon 
are 
all 
part 
of 
the 
connected 
ideal.
Intel 
| 
San 
Jose 
Intel’s 
collaboraAon 
with 
the 
city 
of 
San 
Jose 
is 
a 
demonstrator 
of 
the 
capability 
of 
the 
‘Internet 
of 
Things’ 
focused 
on 
improving 
air 
quality, 
noise 
polluAon 
and 
traffic 
flows 
via 
a 
more 
connected 
infrastructure.
Siemens| 
Masdar 
Although 
behind 
schedule, 
Masdar 
is 
sAll 
aiming 
to 
be 
one 
of 
the 
most 
sustainable, 
environmental 
and 
smart 
ciAes 
on 
the 
planet. 
Key 
partnerships 
with 
Siemens 
are 
focused 
on 
more 
effecAve, 
low 
energy 
systems.
Smarter 
Ci)zens 
A 
big 
quesAon 
however 
concerns 
how 
much 
ciAes 
can 
be 
intelligent 
in 
themselves 
vs. 
enabling 
ciAzens 
to 
be 
more 
informed, 
take 
bePer 
decisions 
and 
so 
parAcipate 
more 
in 
the 
development 
and 
execuAon 
of 
key 
strategies.
Pervasive 
Smart 
Phones 
At 
the 
core, 
1bn 
‘always-­‐connected’ 
smartphones 
and 
the 
associated 
high 
speed 
wireless 
networks 
are 
enabling 
a 
fundamental 
shi6 
in 
how 
personal 
data 
is 
generated, 
shared 
and 
used 
globally.
Predic)ve 
Analy)cs 
The 
mining 
and 
(re)combinaAon 
of 
mulAple 
disparate 
data 
sources 
to 
model 
and 
analyze 
current 
and 
historical 
facts 
is 
already 
enabling 
more 
organisaAons 
to 
bePer 
anAcipate 
and 
share 
emergent 
needs.
Singapore 
– 
Urban 
Mobility 
With 
its 
populaAon 
doubling, 
Singapore 
sees 
mass 
transit 
as 
a 
core 
driver 
for 
a 
more 
effecAve 
city 
– 
By 
2030, 
80% 
of 
households 
will 
be 
within 
a 
10 
minute 
walk 
of 
a 
train 
staAon 
and 
75% 
of 
journeys 
will 
be 
on 
public 
systems.
New 
York 
– 
Engaged 
Ci)zens 
As 
the 
pioneer 
in 
providing 
open 
connecAvity 
for 
all, 
New 
York 
has 
been 
a 
hot-­‐spot 
for 
the 
development 
of 
ciAzen 
based 
networks: 
The 
Bryant 
Park 
RestoraAon 
CorporaAon 
was 
one 
of 
the 
first 
catalysts 
for 
change.
London 
– 
Open 
Data 
London 
has 
more 
open 
public 
data 
sets 
than 
any 
other 
European 
city. 
It 
is 
fast 
becoming 
a 
leading 
centre 
for 
more 
intelligent 
use 
of 
shared 
informaAon 
for 
greater 
collaboraAon 
and 
bePer 
decision 
making.
Christchurch 
– 
Sensing 
City 
Following 
the 
2011 
earthquake, 
Christchurch 
in 
New 
Zealand 
is 
taking 
advantage 
of 
an 
unprecedented 
opportunity 
to 
rethink 
the 
city 
and 
is 
introducing 
integrated 
sensor 
networks 
to 
improve 
data 
sharing
Calgary 
– 
Flooding 
Liability 
Following 
the 
2013 
floods, 
the 
government 
in 
Calgary, 
Canada, 
gave 
homeowners 
a 
one-­‐off 
payment 
with 
the 
opAon 
to 
either 
rebuild 
or 
relocate. 
No 
future 
state 
help 
would 
be 
available.
Floa)ng 
Ci)es 
The 
ten 
most 
‘at 
risk 
ciAes’ 
from 
climate 
change 
globally 
already 
have 
a 
combined 
populaAon 
of 
over 
150m 
and 
are 
projected 
to 
have 
grown 
by 
a 
further 
50% 
by 
2025 
– 
Few, 
if 
any, 
will 
be 
insured.
Different 
Ci)es 
– 
Different 
Solu)ons 
In 
seeking 
new 
models, 
organisaAons 
such 
as 
Shell 
have 
recognised 
that 
global 
challenges 
require 
local 
soluAons 
-­‐ 
but 
different 
city 
types 
can 
also 
adopt 
similar 
approaches 
to 
improving 
efficiency.
The 
world’s 
leading 
open 
foresight 
program 
Three 
Future 
Challenges 
| 
Ques)ons 
for 
Future 
Smart 
Ci)es
Informa)on 
vs. 
Ac)on 
How 
do 
we 
know 
that 
people 
will 
make 
bePer 
decisions 
when 
equipped 
with 
more 
relevant 
informaAon? 
Calorie 
labeling 
in 
New 
York 
helped 
some 
but 
others 
used 
it 
to 
make 
unexpected, 
lower 
health 
decisions.
Owning 
Your 
Digital 
Shadow 
Increasing 
consumer 
awareness 
of 
the 
value 
of 
their 
digital 
footprints 
is 
driving 
the 
desire 
for 
greater 
control 
of 
personal 
data 
– 
so 
who 
will 
own 
the 
data 
we 
need 
to 
share 
to 
enable 
smarter 
ciAes 
and 
ciAzens?
Ci)zen-­‐Led 
Change 
How 
can 
boPom-­‐up 
ciAzen-­‐iniAated 
change 
best 
align 
with 
the 
major 
challenges 
we 
have 
to 
address 
around 
energy, 
water 
and 
food 
consumpAon 
in 
a 
world 
of 
less 
space 
and 
more 
waste?
“CiAes 
have 
the 
capability 
of 
providing 
something 
for 
everybody, 
only 
because, 
and 
only 
when, 
they 
are 
created 
by 
everybody.” 
Jane 
Jacobs 
-­‐ 
The 
Death 
and 
Life 
of 
Great 
American 
Ci4es
Future 
Agenda 
84 
Brook 
Street 
London 
W1K 
5EH 
+44 
203 
0088 
141 
futureagenda.org 
Am.jones@futureagenda.org 
The 
world’s 
leading 
open 
foresight 
program

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Smart cities | Smarter citizens Vienna - 25 Nov 2014 lr

  • 1. Smart Ci)es|Smarter Ci)zens? -­‐ Tim Jones | Vienna | 25 Nov 2014
  • 2. World’s largest open foresight programme CollaboraAons and change since 2010 QuesAons for the next decade Scope Future Agenda 2010 Recent Developments 3 Future Challenges This a6ernoon, we will explore three different perspecAves of the evolving smart, digital, intelligent city, discuss some implicaAons and also raise some quesAons for further debate.
  • 3. Future Agenda 2010: The World in 2020
  • 4. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that looks at the big issues for the next decade so that organisaAons can bePer focus and sAmulate innovaAon.
  • 5. Future Agenda view of the Future of Ci)es The first program in 2010 shared 50 insights on 2020 that have been used widely. Of these, a number were specifically related to the changes taking place in our ciAes.
  • 6. Imbalanced Popula)on Growth By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, and mostly in places least able to accommodate them: With a conAnued shi6 to urban living, we are stressing the system.
  • 7. Developing World Mobility Next year 32 people an hour will be moving into Shanghai, 39 into Kinshasa and Jakarta, 42 into Mumbai and Karachi, 50 into Dhaka and 58 into Lagos.
  • 8. Richer Poorer Widening differences in wealth between and within urban and rural communiAes will conAnue to extend the gap between rich and poor -­‐ but they will sAll need each other.
  • 9. Energy Consump)on We know that Asian ciAes are more efficient than American ciAes: Los Angeles uses 25% of its GDP in moving people and goods. In Hong Kong the corresponding figure is only 5%.
  • 10. Dense Ci)es As urban migraAon increases, efficient, densely populated ciAes, not distributed opAons, are the ideal benchmarks for more sustainable places to live.
  • 11. Paris – The Role Model? For many, the blueprint for the sustainable, livable city is Paris: Many urban planners and architects see this as a highly efficient and social urban model that is aPracAve to residents.
  • 12. Ubiquitous Data Access We will be connected everywhere -­‐ everything that can benefit from a network connecAon will have one. 50 billion devices and a trillion sensors will be generaAng so much data that we are doubling capacity every month.
  • 13. Intelligent Highways Mesh networks and ubiquitous mobile connecAons deliver the automated highways ambiAon and so improve safety, increase capacity and reduce congesAon.
  • 14. Intelligent buildings Smarter, bePer connected, self-­‐monitoring homes and offices provide safer, more secure, low energy buildings able to self-­‐manage uAliAes.
  • 15. Mega City States Increasing compeAAon between ciAes over-­‐rides naAonal prioriAes as mayors lead bold iniAaAves to place their ciAes at the forefront of the global stage: The C40 becomes more influenAal than the G20.
  • 16. Recent Developments and Collabora)ons
  • 17. Smart Cars Every vehicle has thousands of sensor-­‐connected computers that collecAvely deliver the intelligent car that is able to monitor itself, its environment and its passengers.
  • 18. Autonomous Vehicles Led by urban delivery pods and long distance trucks, the rise of automaAcally driven vehicles leads to the reinvenAon of the travel experience around infotainment.
  • 19. From Cars To People We are seeing a shi6 of focus from ciAes designed for cars to ciAes designed for people. The influence of GM, Ford and Exxon is giving way to a new group of authoritaAve bodies.
  • 20. Amsterdam – People Centric Transport O6en seen as Europe’s most sustainable city, Amsterdam is the global leader in supporAng non-­‐motorized transport. 70% of mobility in Amsterdam is either walking or cycling.
  • 21. The Smart City Ideal Many see the perfect smart city to be one where renewable energy systems, effecAve transport networks and digital infrastructures all align to create a super-­‐efficient sustainable environment for everyone.
  • 22. Global Drivers of Change In the past few years we have seen clear progress on the Smart CiAes ambiAon – much of which has been focused on collaboraAon with some key mulAnaAonals.
  • 23. IBM | Rio de Janeiro IBM’s Smarter CiAes / Smarter Planet iniAaAve has been embraced by mayors in many key ciAes: Massive sensor networks, cloud-­‐based storage and predicAve analyAcs have all been coming to the fore.
  • 24. Cisco | Songdo Songdo in Korea has embraced Cisco’s ‘Smart+Connected’ view of the city. Ubiquitous data sharing, automated buildings, high-­‐speed networks and pervasive interacAon are all part of the connected ideal.
  • 25. Intel | San Jose Intel’s collaboraAon with the city of San Jose is a demonstrator of the capability of the ‘Internet of Things’ focused on improving air quality, noise polluAon and traffic flows via a more connected infrastructure.
  • 26. Siemens| Masdar Although behind schedule, Masdar is sAll aiming to be one of the most sustainable, environmental and smart ciAes on the planet. Key partnerships with Siemens are focused on more effecAve, low energy systems.
  • 27. Smarter Ci)zens A big quesAon however concerns how much ciAes can be intelligent in themselves vs. enabling ciAzens to be more informed, take bePer decisions and so parAcipate more in the development and execuAon of key strategies.
  • 28. Pervasive Smart Phones At the core, 1bn ‘always-­‐connected’ smartphones and the associated high speed wireless networks are enabling a fundamental shi6 in how personal data is generated, shared and used globally.
  • 29. Predic)ve Analy)cs The mining and (re)combinaAon of mulAple disparate data sources to model and analyze current and historical facts is already enabling more organisaAons to bePer anAcipate and share emergent needs.
  • 30. Singapore – Urban Mobility With its populaAon doubling, Singapore sees mass transit as a core driver for a more effecAve city – By 2030, 80% of households will be within a 10 minute walk of a train staAon and 75% of journeys will be on public systems.
  • 31. New York – Engaged Ci)zens As the pioneer in providing open connecAvity for all, New York has been a hot-­‐spot for the development of ciAzen based networks: The Bryant Park RestoraAon CorporaAon was one of the first catalysts for change.
  • 32. London – Open Data London has more open public data sets than any other European city. It is fast becoming a leading centre for more intelligent use of shared informaAon for greater collaboraAon and bePer decision making.
  • 33. Christchurch – Sensing City Following the 2011 earthquake, Christchurch in New Zealand is taking advantage of an unprecedented opportunity to rethink the city and is introducing integrated sensor networks to improve data sharing
  • 34. Calgary – Flooding Liability Following the 2013 floods, the government in Calgary, Canada, gave homeowners a one-­‐off payment with the opAon to either rebuild or relocate. No future state help would be available.
  • 35. Floa)ng Ci)es The ten most ‘at risk ciAes’ from climate change globally already have a combined populaAon of over 150m and are projected to have grown by a further 50% by 2025 – Few, if any, will be insured.
  • 36. Different Ci)es – Different Solu)ons In seeking new models, organisaAons such as Shell have recognised that global challenges require local soluAons -­‐ but different city types can also adopt similar approaches to improving efficiency.
  • 37. The world’s leading open foresight program Three Future Challenges | Ques)ons for Future Smart Ci)es
  • 38. Informa)on vs. Ac)on How do we know that people will make bePer decisions when equipped with more relevant informaAon? Calorie labeling in New York helped some but others used it to make unexpected, lower health decisions.
  • 39. Owning Your Digital Shadow Increasing consumer awareness of the value of their digital footprints is driving the desire for greater control of personal data – so who will own the data we need to share to enable smarter ciAes and ciAzens?
  • 40. Ci)zen-­‐Led Change How can boPom-­‐up ciAzen-­‐iniAated change best align with the major challenges we have to address around energy, water and food consumpAon in a world of less space and more waste?
  • 41. “CiAes have the capability of providing something for everybody, only because, and only when, they are created by everybody.” Jane Jacobs -­‐ The Death and Life of Great American Ci4es
  • 42. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org Am.jones@futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program