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Check interval escalation

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Check Interval Escalation is a hard task for small fleet operators, there are two approaches, the first is sampling , while the second is analytical approach. here we are deal with analytical approach

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Check interval escalation

  1. 1. CHECK INTERVAL ESCALATION Prepared by Eng. Mohammed Salem Awodh Adviser Yemenia THE 9 TH ANNUAL MIDDLE EAST AIRLINE ENGINEERING & MAINTENANCE CONFERENCE
  2. 2. OVERVIEW <ul><li>INTRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MRB Document Forms Basis Of Initial Maintenance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>First Item For Development: Extending Interval For Major Maintenance Visits. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Escalation Period </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No Problems For Large Carries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hard For Small Carries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Methodology Can be Applied For check A, B & C. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simulated Case Study For A Small Operator. </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. WORLD WIDE FLEET SITUATION III I II AIRLINES CHECK CARRIED AT …… Flt Hr ( A / B /C ) Recommended Value By Manufacture Weight Average value by Fleet World
  4. 4. WORLD WIDE FLEET SITUATION Region I : Usually Large Carries Region II : Airlines Who Are Adapted & Copied The Manufacture Recommendations Region III : Small Carries
  5. 5. CHECK A INTERVALS FOR 737-200 WORLDS FLEET
  6. 6. CHECK B INTERVALS FOR B737-200 WORLDS FLEET
  7. 7. CHECK C INTERVALS FOR B737-200 WORLDS FLEET
  8. 8. CHECK ESCALATION <ul><li>OBJECTIVE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aircraft Maintenance And Mechanical Reliability are not effected significantly when Scheduled Maintenance Increases. </li></ul></ul>Systems Rates Flt Hours / Cycles
  9. 9. CHECK ESCALATION <ul><li>CHECK INTERVAL ESCALATION FACTORS : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Additional Availability of Airplanes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased Workload per check vs any decrease in the man hours per flight hours </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Utilization of Maintenance facilities and personal. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Size of work crew required </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Age of Airplanes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Experience level of personal. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operational Environment of Airplanes. </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. CHECK ESCALATION <ul><li>ATA SPECIFICATION 100 SYSTEMS </li></ul><ul><li>AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS </li></ul>Structures Group 51 Structures General ……… ……… ……… ……… 57 Wings <ul><li>Mechanical / Electrical Systems Group </li></ul><ul><li>Air Conditioning </li></ul><ul><li>……… </li></ul><ul><li>……… </li></ul><ul><li>……… </li></ul><ul><li>……… </li></ul><ul><li>49 Auxiliary Power Unit ( APU ) </li></ul>Power plant Group 71 Power plant General ……… ……… ……… ……… 82 Engine Water Injection
  11. 11. CHECK ESCALATION <ul><li>METHODLOGIES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sampling Approach. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analytical Approach. </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. METHODLOGIES <ul><li>SAMPLING APPROACH (Prerequisite) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pro-Active Regulatory Liaison Group. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sufficient Sample Aircraft. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expert Engineering/ Maintenance/ Planning Team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Effective Reliability Program. </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. METHODLOGIES <ul><li>ANALYTICAL APPROACH (Prerequisite) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sufficient Data. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical & Statistical Skill. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Effective Reliability Program. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advance Computer Programmer </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. ANALYTICAL APPROACH <ul><li>RELIABILITY PARAMETERS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mechanical Delays. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pilot Reports. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-Routine Work at Scheduled Maintenance Checks. </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. ANALYTICAL APPROACH RELIABILITY LEVEL TIME
  16. 16. ANALYTICAL APPROACH Support extension Support extension Support extension Undetermined extension Time Since “C” Check – Flight Hours Reliability Parameter INTERVAL EXTENSION PROPOSED INTERVAL CURRENT INTERVAL
  17. 17. ANALYTICAL APPROACH The Flow Chart is illustrated the Analytical Approach Effective Parameters for Measuring the Safety Factors Reject the Result Evaluating the Rate Function At the Target Period for the Specified System Define Level Of Confidence Data By ATA Chapters Is % change of the rate of the extended period to the actual period is < 0.05 Accept the Result YES NO
  18. 18. ANALYTICAL APPROACH <ul><li>THE FOLLOWING FACTORS ARE NOT ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY INTERVAL EXTENSION : </li></ul><ul><li>MECHANICAL DELAYS </li></ul><ul><li>PILOT REPORTS </li></ul><ul><li>TOTAL NON-ROUTINE MAINTENANCE </li></ul><ul><li>NON-ROUTINE MAINTENANCE GENERATED BY SPECIFIC “ C “ CHECK TASKS </li></ul>
  19. 19. ANALYTICAL APPROACH <ul><li>EACH ANALYSIS IS SUBJECTED TO : </li></ul><ul><li>MORE THAN ONE STATISTICAL TEST </li></ul><ul><li>ASSIGN 95 % CONFEDNCE LEVEL </li></ul><ul><li>DATA SELECTED OVER 5 YEARS PERIOD </li></ul><ul><li>THE BASE SCALES OF THE ANALYSIS ARE FLIGHT HOURS AND CYCLES </li></ul><ul><li>BY ATA CHAPTER NUMBER </li></ul>
  20. 20. MECHANICAL DELAYS <ul><li>THIS SYSTEM FACTOR </li></ul><ul><li>SHOULD ANALYSIS BY : </li></ul><ul><li>WEIBULL ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION </li></ul><ul><li>CHI SQUARED TEST ( X 2 ) </li></ul>
  21. 21. PILOT REPORTS <ul><li>THIS SYSTEM FACTOR </li></ul><ul><li>SHOULD ANALYSIS BY : </li></ul><ul><li>WEIBULL ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION </li></ul><ul><li>CHI SQUARED TEST ( X 2 ) </li></ul>
  22. 22. NON-ROUTINE MAINTENANCE LEVELS <ul><li>THIS SYSTEM FACTOR </li></ul><ul><li>SHOULD ANALYSIS BY : </li></ul><ul><li>WEIBULL ANALYSIS </li></ul><ul><li>LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION </li></ul><ul><li>CHI SQUARED TEST ( X 2 ) </li></ul>
  23. 23. NON-ROUTINE MAINTENANCE GENERATED FROM “C” CHECK MAINTENANCE TASKS <ul><li>ALL THE TASKS COVERED BY CHECKS “A” AND “ B” ARE ELIMINATE IN THE “C” CHECK PACKAGE. </li></ul><ul><li>MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE ITEMS PER REMINING TASKS WITH 95 % CONFIDENCE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>POISSON DISTRIBUTION </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. OUTCOMES <ul><li>MECHANICAL DELAY RATE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WEIBULL ANALYSIS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CHI SQUARE TEST </li></ul></ul><ul><li>PILOT REPORT RATE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WEIBULL ANALYSIS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CHI SQUARE TEST </li></ul></ul><ul><li>TOTAL NON-ROUTINE MAINTENANCE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WEIBULL ANALYSIS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CHI SQUARE TEST </li></ul></ul>ALL SHOULD SUPPORT INTERVAL EXTENSION
  25. 25. CASE STUDY Simulated Case Study is developed Objective : Escalation Check C Current Interval : 1600 Flt Hrs Target Interval : 2000 Flt Hrs Escalation Interval : 400 Flt Hrs
  26. 26. DATA COLLECTIONS Case Study Ungroup Data Kolomograph Test Group Data CHI Square Test
  27. 27. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM I – Mechanical Delays Weibull Analysis Ungroup Data
  28. 28. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM I – Mech. Delays (Distribution ) KOLMOGOROV TEST
  29. 29. <ul><li>HYDRAULIC SYSTEM I – Mechanical Delays (Rate) </li></ul>
  30. 30. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM II – Pilot Reports Weibull Analysis Group Data
  31. 31. <ul><li>HYDRAULIC SYSTEM II – Pilot Reports (Rate) </li></ul>Evaluation Weibull Parameters
  32. 32. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM II – Pilot Reports (Rate)
  33. 33. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM III – Total Non- Routine Items Weibull Analysis Group Data
  34. 34. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM III – Total Non- Routine Items Evaluation Weibull Parameters
  35. 35. 29 HYDRAULIC SYSTEM III – Total Non- Routine Items Rate
  36. 36. <ul><li>HYDRAULIC SYSTEM VI – Non- Routine Maintenance </li></ul>- Generated By Specific “ C “ Check Tasks
  37. 37. GO, NO GO DECISION <ul><li>The Previous Steps should be repeated for all ATA Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Go Decision if all systems analysis are support positive results. </li></ul><ul><li>Systems, those are not satisfied the conditions, should review carefully, by issuing service difficulty reports. </li></ul>
  38. 38. SUMMARY <ul><li>Small Carriers can implement these techniques. </li></ul><ul><li>Weibull Analysis is a powerful approach which can be used for Non-Group Data and Group Data. </li></ul><ul><li>To avoid type II error The Previous Steps are subjected to Kolomogrovo Test. </li></ul>
  39. 39. Contact Further Information: Mohammed Salem Awad Tel: 00967 734777518 Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com www.freewebs.com/wingsofwisdom/ www.freewebs.com/art-of-knowledge/ www.standout-from-the-crowds.webs.com

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