This is a presentation of the advanced preliminary results from a study on genetically modified Bt-RR maize in Honduras. The study was conducted by IFPRI, Zamorano University and University of California -Davis. Our results show that Bt-RR maize has performed as designed. It has reduced damage due to target lepidopteran insects, and has decreased slightly pesticide use by adopters. Net benefits are substantially higher for Bt-RR maize adopters than for the non-adopters in our sample. Yet, Bt-RR maize remains adoption remains at around 8-10% of total area planted to maize in Honduras in 2013. Our qualitative and quantitative analysis seems to indicated that there are other organizational and institutional constraints which are limiting such adoption. The current Bt-RR maize technology as it stands now is not intending for subsistence farmers much less the poorest of the poor producers in Honduras. This opens the question of whether there may be potential interventions to improve these producers' productivity through conditional transfer programs that include cash and/or productive inputs such as seed, fertilizer and in some cases pesticides and herbicides.
2. The Honduras maize sector
Agriculture important to the
economy
Binding limitations to ag production
Maize is essential part of the diet
Increasingly dependent on imports
Maize in Honduras is grown mostly for food/feed
3. Binding constraints to maize production in
Honduras
Low productivity
Damage by lepidopteran insects can be as high as 40-70%
Increasing issues with other pests and diseases
Heavy damage due to aflatoxins / mycotoxins
4. GMOs in Honduras
8th Latin American country adopting GMOs since 20021
Only country in CentralAmerica
cultivating GMOs for food
-USA*
-Brazil*
-Argentina*
-South Africa*
-Canada*
-Uruguay x1.5
-Philippines x3
-Spain x5
-Chile x7
-Honduras
-Portugal x.8
-Czech Republic x .7
-Poland x3
-Egypt x9
-Slovakia x0.4
-Romania x2
• By 2013, 75 thousand ha with hybrids and GM 15% area planted
• GM estimated around 30-40 thousand hectares
BT (MON810), RR (NK603), Herculex 1 ,YGVTPro
(MON89034) traits approved for commercialization
5. Honduras: promotional environment favoring
biotechnology adoption
Favorable policy,economic and social conditions facilitated adoption
UN Statistics Division, 2011. WTO Statistics, Trade
Profiles, 2012
Strategic interest in aligning agricultural policies with the major
economic and trade partners
• Honduras trade is essentially tied to the United States
• Historically strong presence of agricultural multinationals interested in increased
agricultural productivity
6. Established Biosafety Framework and Regulations
Incorporated biotechnology in National Food Self Sufficiency Strategy
Coordinated a joint agricultural and environmental political agenda
‘To facilitate the process to incorporate hybrids and transgenic
seeds in 25% of the area planted at the national level by 2014’
Honduras Agricultural and Livestock Ministry goal
Public Agricultural and Food Sector Strategy
1996/98: Biosecurity Regulation with Emphasis inTransgenic Plants
1998: National Committee of Biotechnology and Biosecurity (NCBB)
2006: CAFTA-DR Phytozoosanitary Law modification
2008: Cartagena Protocol Ratification
2001/12: Law for the Protection of NewVarieties of Plants USAID GAIN Report 2012.
Honduran government specific policy support for
easing a transition towards biotechnologies
Honduras: A case study to understand
biotechnology adoption in small
resource poor developing countries
7. Enabling biosafety regulatory approach
Biosafety issues are handled by the Ministries ofAgriculture
and Environment
A good dose of pragmatism
What is the risk of adopting Gm crops vs. the risk of NOT
adopting
A biosafety committee composed of technical people with
sound academic credentials
A clear understanding of the process and components of Risk
Analysis as a discipline
Focus on risk assessment only, whereas other considerations
may be part of the final decision making process
9. The 2013 (second) survey to observe experiences of
conventional & GM maize farmers
Economic,social and agronomic impacts
Farmers by maize type
Size
Total
< 7 hectares > 7 hectares
Conventional only 58 25 83
GM only 39 57 96
Both types of maize 11 19 30
Total 108 101 209
o We chose a representative sample of maize farmers from the
main maize producing state in Honduras
11. Olancho: The main maize producing state in
Honduras
- 180,000 metric tons
- 35,000 planted hectares >30 % national maize production
- 12,000 hectares with GM >40% GM maize production
- 10,000 farmers
- A range of different maize production systems
We captured diversity within the commercial maize
production chain
12. Descriptive statistics
Non-Adopters
(n=82)
PartialAdopters
(n=30)
Complete Adopters
(n=92) P
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
Landholding size
(ha)
25 47 90 152 42 59 <0.01
Maize area (ha) 6 7 4 4 24 43 <0.01
Other crops as
share of total
income (%)
20 19 21 19 11 16 <0.05
Non-Adopters
(n=82)
PartialAdopters
(n=30)
CompleteAdopters
(n=92) P
Household income
(US$) Count % of n Count % of n Count % of n
<500 43 52 8 27 8 9
<0.01
500-1000 26 32 8 27 9 10
1000-1500 7 9 2 7 8 9
1500-2000 1 1 3 10 10 11
2000-2500 3 4 7 23 45 49
2500-5000 2 2 2 7 6 7
>5000 0 0 0 0 6 7
13. Costs and Net Benefits
Non-Adopters
(n=82)
Complete Adopters
(n=92)
Mean SD Mean SD P
Total costs
(US$/ha) 727.1 226.2 1356.8 661.5 <0.01
Yield (MT/ha) 3.0 1.3 5.5 1.4 <0.01
Price (US$/MT) 280.0 44.8 377.1 72.9 <0.01
Income (US$/ha) 830.8 402.3 2081.9 687.8 <0.01
Net utility
(US$/ha) 104.6 413.6 727.2 874.0 <0.01
Partial Adopters
Non-GM Plot
(n=30)
Partial Adopters
GM Plot
(n=30)
Mean SD Mean SD P
Total costs
(US$/ha) 979.6 312.7 1123.2 460.1
Yield (MT/ha) 3.7 1.6 5.3 1.6 <0.01
Price (US$/MT) 328.9 76.3 328.9 76.3
Income (US$/ha) 1244.0 658.6 1773.8 754.4 <0.01
Net utility
(US$/ha) 265.7 511.8 652.4 664.4 <0.05
14. But... our data analysis shows that outliers and
sampling biases are present and relevant to
outcomes
1
3
5
11
2021 40
42
56 60
68
76
77
78
84
8586
8889
90
91
92
939496
99
100101 103104 106
107 109
110
111112114 115
116
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120
121 122125
127
129
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133
135 136137140141
144
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152
153154
155
157158159
161 164
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176182
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184185
186191
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206 208
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230
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233
-20
0
2040
Robuststandardizedresiduals
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Robust_distance
Observation ID Yield Cook’s D
42 6.500 0.053
84 5.200 0.385
99 7.475 0.033
116 4.543 0.039
120 9.100 0.020
121 2.507 0.022
129 2.839 0.021
131 6.500 0.688
132 3.250 0.054
143 1.817 0.028
152 5.200 1.230
155 7.800 0.036
169 1.083 0.020
170 6.045 2.381
173 0.975 0.030
174 8.060 0.032
182 0.195 0.060
200 5.200 0.033
212 7.800 0.032
217 1.300 0.020
222 9.100 0.022
230 6.500 0.026
“The classical instrumental variables (IV) estimator is extremely sensitive to the
presence of outliers in the sample. This is a concern as outliers can strongly dis-
tort the estimated effect of a given regressor on the dependent variable. Although
outlier diagnostics exist, they frequently fail to detect atypical observations since
they are themselves based on non-robust (to outliers) estimators. Furthermore,
they do not take into account the combined influence of outliers in the first and
second stages of the IV estimator” Desbordes and Verardi, Stata Journal 2012
15. Maize yields and net income: raw and
sampling bias/outlier adjusted averages
Yield
(mt/ha)
Raw averages Averages adjusted
for sampling bias
and/or outliers
GM plots 5.3 4.78 - 5.02
Conventional plots 3.7 3.7
Difference 1.6 1.08 - 1.32
Estimate of the impact of sampling
bias and/or outliers (%) 17 - 32%
Income
(US$/ha)
Raw averages Averages adjusted
for sampling bias
and/or outliers
GM plots 1774 1584 - 1754
Conventional plots 1244 1244
Difference 530 340 - 510
Estimate of the impact of sampling
bias and/or outliers (%) 4 - 36%
16. Small-holders and GM Maize qualitative research
Research questions
Does the operation of maize production differs among small-scale
adopters and non-adopters?
Are these differences gender specific or gender neutral?
What are the perceived main limitations that small-holders face in the
adoption of GM maize?
17. Qualitative Research –Tools used
One-page identification survey, by
participant
Map of maize production activities by
specific producer (GM and non-GM
adopter, by gender)
Variety/hybrid preference matrix:
perceptions of main limitations, by group
Priority action matrix, perceptions of
main technology barriers, by group
One-to-one interviews
18. Women
Plant conventional maize
Plant GM maize
Men
Women Men
31 33
Only group that use recycle seed
Solely decides which seed to plant
Supervise most work
Does much of the work by
themselves
Poor knowledge about GM seed
characteristics
Only group that believe GM yields
less profits
Need to hire labor
Hire machinery
Male HH members supervision
Decides jointly with male HH
member which seed to plant
Rely on male HH members for
labor demands
Believe GM yields 2/3 more times
Supervise and makes
all maize operations
decisions
No family consultation
regarding which seed
to plant
Perform no weeding activities
Believe GM is less time demanding
and requires less hired labor
Only group that
believes GM requires
equal or more hired
labor
Believe GM is more
time demanding
Best knowledge and
information about GM
market and agronomic
characteristics
Small group discussions: Findings
19. Net Mapping and Social NetworkAnalysis
Who could influence the adoption of GM maize in Honduras?
20. Net Mapping and Social Network Analysis –
Indicators of closeness and centrality
21. Communication and Outreach
Video Documentary on the Impact on
theAdoption of GM Crops in
Honduras
Honduran production crew gathered
on-farm footage
Communication firm in Costa Rica
developed the scripts for 3 short video
clips
Farmers share their experience with
the adoption of conventional and GM
maize varieties
Perspectives of government and
academic representatives
22. Summary
Positive economic benefits of using GM
maize technology in Honduras for
current adopters
Results across our study area show that
GM maize reduce damage, in some cases
yield 29-35% higher compared to the
conventional hybrid
Production costs per hectare of GM
maize are higher than HYV varieties
GM => Higher seed price but with lower
pesticide use
GM maize significantly increased
farmer’s net benefits per hectare
Need to address multiple institutional
and policy issues
23. Policy issues for future research
Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and growing relatively slowly when the return
to the GM technology is so high in Honduras?
Typical low adoption constraints
Lack of adequate information and knowledge about modern maize varieties
Farm size and liquidity constraints (neighborhood effect in more favored areas)
Access to productive inputs
Serious problems of other kind of pests and diseases
Black tar spot disease makes current GM technology less attractive for the farmers.
Small market outlet for GM maize
Maize processors linked to government programs (WFP) do not accept GM maize
Impact of price fluctuations (?)
Policies to support the “smallest of the smallholders”
Dealing with market uncertainty
Seed companies’ ability to deal with infrastructural issues and producer geographical
dispersion
Market value chain capacity
Scale issue
24. Two upcoming sources of information
Next Harvest II
Templeton funded projects
implemented by IFPRI
A comprehensive survey
measuring agricultural
biotechnology capacity
South Africa
Nigeria
Kenya
Uganda
A report to theAfrican
Development Bank on
agricultural biotechnology
capacity submitted by IFPRI – to
be launched later this year
25. Arie Sanders
Maria Mercedes Roca
Miljian Villalta
Alan B. Bennett
Cecilia Chi-Ham
Denisse McLean
José Falck-Zepeda
Patricia Zambrano
Sandra Mendoza. Participatory
research consultant
Research funded by:
26. José Benjamin Falck-Zepeda, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow / Leader PolicyTeam Program
for Biosafety Systems
IFPRI
2033 K Street NW
Washington, DC 20006-1002
USA
j.falck-zepeda@cgiar.org
Brief bio/pubs: http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/jose-falck-zepeda
Blog: http://socioeconomicbiosafety.wordpress.com/
Follow me onTwitter: @josefalck