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Land use change in the globalization era Eric F. Lambin Stanford University & University of Louvain
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Lambin & Meyfroidt, PNAS,  2011 Forest transition
Forest transition in Vietnam Meyfroidt & Lambin,  Global Change Biology,  2008
Reforestation in marginal areas: Mountains, steep slopes
Remote sensing data District-level census data
Pathways of forest transitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Rudel et al. 2005, Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2009
Ecological quality of regenerating forests Mean patch size Meyfroidt & Lambin,  Global Change Biology,  2008 Plantations Natural forest regeneration
Regions of forest transitions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hall & Lambin,  forthcoming
Potential to support biodiversity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hall & Lambin,  forthcoming
Forest area and biodiversity potential Hall & Lambin,  forthcoming Northern Costa Rica Natural forest regeneration Northern Vietnam  Natural forest regeneration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forest area and carbon Hall & Lambin,  forthcoming Northern Costa Rica Natural forest regeneration Northern Vietnam  Natural forest regeneration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Widely-held view ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expansion of international trade ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],From EIA / Telapak
Input – Output balance: PRw+PRwIll+IRwL+IRwIll = PPr+ERw with: PRw  = legal production of roundwood PRwIll  = illegal production of roundwood IRwL  = legal imports of roundwood IRwIll  = illegal imports of roundwood PPr  = production of processed wood ERw  = exports of roundwood Displacement  = IRwL+IPrL+IRwIll with: IPrL  = legal imports of processed wood The forestry sector in Vietnam Meyfroidt & Lambin,  PNAS , 2009
Displacement = 40% of  1992-2006 forest  regrowth About 80% of it exported as value-added products Vietnam’s displacement of deforestation abroad Meyfroidt & Lambin,  PNAS , 2009
Policy-induced leakage = 60 % of displacement  Demand-driven leakage = 40 %  of displacement Forest policy  vs  economic growth Meyfroidt & Lambin,  PNAS , 2009
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Meyfroidt, Rudel, Lambin,  PNAS , 2010
Argan woodlands, southern Morocco le Polain de Waroux & Lambin,  Applied Geography  2011
Argan oil
[object Object],[object Object],le Polain de Waroux & Lambin,  Applied Geography  2011
Agricultural intensification and land sparing for nature  ,[object Object],[object Object],Increasing the productivity of agriculture on the best farmland helps control deforestation by reducing the demand for new farmland
Evidence on  land sparing with agricultural intensification ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],Intervention on land use
Demand-side/market-based instruments affecting land use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Value chain ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ximena Rueda & Lambin,  forthcoming Farmers who sell to differentiated markets capture a larger portion of the value added to consumers
Sources: For C Contract: ICE (NY exchange) For Differentials (Complete Coffee: daily survey among traders) For Farmer’s price and Nespresso Premiums: The Colombian Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Ximena Rueda &  Lambin,  forthcoming
Halting deforestation? Forest area Time The forest transition
…  or accelerating a land-use transition Time Forest area The forest transition
Land use transition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Cambio global del territorio boscoso y la globalización económica - Eric Lambin

  • 1. Land use change in the globalization era Eric F. Lambin Stanford University & University of Louvain
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Lambin & Meyfroidt, PNAS, 2011 Forest transition
  • 5. Forest transition in Vietnam Meyfroidt & Lambin, Global Change Biology, 2008
  • 6. Reforestation in marginal areas: Mountains, steep slopes
  • 7. Remote sensing data District-level census data
  • 8.
  • 9. Ecological quality of regenerating forests Mean patch size Meyfroidt & Lambin, Global Change Biology, 2008 Plantations Natural forest regeneration
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Input – Output balance: PRw+PRwIll+IRwL+IRwIll = PPr+ERw with: PRw = legal production of roundwood PRwIll = illegal production of roundwood IRwL = legal imports of roundwood IRwIll = illegal imports of roundwood PPr = production of processed wood ERw = exports of roundwood Displacement = IRwL+IPrL+IRwIll with: IPrL = legal imports of processed wood The forestry sector in Vietnam Meyfroidt & Lambin, PNAS , 2009
  • 21. Displacement = 40% of 1992-2006 forest regrowth About 80% of it exported as value-added products Vietnam’s displacement of deforestation abroad Meyfroidt & Lambin, PNAS , 2009
  • 22. Policy-induced leakage = 60 % of displacement Demand-driven leakage = 40 % of displacement Forest policy vs economic growth Meyfroidt & Lambin, PNAS , 2009
  • 23.
  • 24. Argan woodlands, southern Morocco le Polain de Waroux & Lambin, Applied Geography 2011
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Ximena Rueda & Lambin, forthcoming Farmers who sell to differentiated markets capture a larger portion of the value added to consumers
  • 33.
  • 34. Halting deforestation? Forest area Time The forest transition
  • 35. … or accelerating a land-use transition Time Forest area The forest transition
  • 36.

Notas del editor

  1. Finally, by selecting the most consistent remote sensing data for the 1990s, combined with a critical analysis of other statistical and map sources for previous and further periods, we could reconstitute the forest cover trends in Vietnam for the last decades. This showed that a forest transition most likely occured in Vietnam during the 1990s, with the turning point around 1991-1993.
  2. Conclusion.
  3. !! Keep these three ideas in mind: Policies regarding domestic supply, Economic growth creating demand, Imports and displacement.
  4. Imports of processed wood: pulp and paper, boards, sawnwood. Trucks loaded with illegal timber crossing the Cambodia – Vietnam border.
  5. Displacement = total volume of wood consumed in Vietnam or transformed and exported from Vietnam, but extracted from forests in other countries. Imports of SPWP: 10-3 times other flows.