An approach to Multi-Level Perspective using forests and a flower visualization as a metaphor to depict it. MLP is an analytical framework to better understand and explain transition in socio-technical systems.

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MULTI-LEVEL
PERSPECTIVE
analytical framework for transitions
Zurich, January 2015
Javier de Vicente (jadevicen@gmail.com)

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1. Introduction
2. MLP
3. Transitions

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1.Introduction

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Incumbent regime
Path dependence
Transition pathways
regime Socio-technical landscape
deepening
broadening
Scaling-up
Nurturing
Shielding

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Incumbent regime
Path dependence
Transition pathways
regime Socio-technical landscape
deepening
broadening
Scaling-up
Nurturing
Shielding

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“One of the basic skills to master when you are
dealing with system innovation is to know how to
drink beers”
JJ and J V… private conversation

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“Houston, we have a problem”

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“…The major problems of our time cannot be
understood in isolation, are systemic,which means
interconnected and interdependent”
Frtijof Cappra, The Web of life (1996)

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Can you see behind the cars?

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Let´s take a “systemic” look at this bunch of trees

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Multi-actor

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Interdependence

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Co-evolution, adaptation…

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Emergent behaviour

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Butterfly effect

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Opportunistic species
Current ecosystem
Multi-level
External conditions

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Butterfly effect
Emergent behaviour
Co-evolution, adaptation…
InterdependenceMulti-level
Multi-actor
Non linearity

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How to apply this approach to social and technical
problems, such as cars and mobility?

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Butterfly effect
Emergent behaviour
Co-evolution, adaptation…
InterdependenceMulti-level
Multi-actor
Non linearity

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2. MLP

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MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE
L
r n
L
R
N

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Let´s start by understanding
and describing the incumbent
system or regime

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SOCIO-TECHNICAL
SYSTEM
Technology
+
Society
+
Relationships Multi-actor

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System is not about actors, It is about
their relations and how they are
materialised, Institutionalised and
structured in a dynamic complex of
multiple dimensions

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Knowledge Base
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system

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Industrial capacity:
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system
Knowledge Base

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Industrial capacity:
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system
Knowledge Base
Built environment

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Industrial capacity:
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system
Knowledge Base
Built environmentMarket and user habits

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Industrial capacity:
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system
Knowledge Base
Built environmentMarket and user habits
Culture:

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Industrial capacity:
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system
Knowledge Base
Built environmentMarket and user habits
Culture: Regulation, policy, institutions:

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Industrial capacity:
Radical Key
Innovation Idea
Car/ mobility
Socio-technical
system
Knowledge Base
Built environmentMarket and user habits
Culture: Regulation, policy, institutions:

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Many different regimes, usually interconnected, coexist in the same region

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Socio-technical
system
Socio-technical regimes are multi-dimensional.
Depending on the sector the number and type
of dimension can vary.

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Same regime becomes different in different regions.
Due to local resources and societal
interdependencies the mainstream solution is different

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REGIME:

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How about the other two levels,
niches and landscape
in socio-technical systems?

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NICHES:

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LANDSCAPE:

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Landscape: drivers for change
Regime: Barriers for radical change
Niches: Alternatives for the change

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… But remember, we are in a rush and need radical
innovation and transformation and we need it now…
How does transition come about?

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3. TRANSITIONS

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Transition occurs when the incumbent regime is
transformed or replaced.

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In the regime can arise an
awareness about the need of change, converging
visions of where to go, both in social, political and
cognitive dimensions.

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We have niches where a lo lot of experiments are
taking place and struggle to break into the regime.

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But unless regime falls apart being disrupted, a window of opportunity won´t be
opened for disruptive innovation. Likewise if niches are not developed, won´t be
able of taking advantage of the window

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Changes in landscape become pressure for the regime
If we are thinking of radical innovation we will need
strong, rapid and disruptive pressure.

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Transitions need:
1.Pressure from the landscape
2.Regime openness for change (instability)
3.Niche innovations

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Different transition pathways according to the nature
and timing of aforementioned conditions
Pressure: doesn´t exist, moderate, strong and rapid
Pressure: Reinforces or disrupts the regime
Niches: Developed or not
Pressure: Symbiotic or competitive with regime

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TRANSITION PATHWAYS (Geels and Schot, 2007)
P0 Reproductive process No external landscape pressure, the incumbent regime is stable and reproduces itself, even if there are
developed niches - no transition occurs.
P1 Transformation/
reorientation pathway
Moderate landscape pressure, niches not developed. The incumbent regime actors re-orientate and modify
the regime in response.
DUTCH HYGIENIC TRANSITION CESSPOOL TO SEWERS
P2 De-alignment and
re-alignment pathway
Strong, rapid landscape pressure, undeveloped niches. The incumbent regime disintegrates, space for
multiple innovations, eventually one becomes dominant and forms a new regime.
AMERICAN HORSE TO AUTOMOBILE
P3 Technological
substitution
Strong, disruptive landscape pressure on stable regime, niche novelties developed. The niche takes
advantage of a window of opportunity to push away the incumbent regime.
BRITISH SAIL TO STEAMSHIPS
P4 Reconfiguration
pathway
Symbiotic/sequence of innovations developed in niches are adopted by the incumbent regime to solve its
problems. New regime grows out of the incumbent.
AMERICAN FACTORIES TO MASS PRODUCTION

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…In a nutshell

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WHAT: Analytical tool for transitions,
that distinghuishes between 3 levels with
different meanings.
1. Exogenous landscape: drivers
2. Incumbent regime: barriers
3. Niches: alternatives

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HOW: When landscape preassures
and make regime instable, an
opportunity window is opened for the
niches and transition is on the way.
Different pathways on depending on
the change in landscape and relations
between levels

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WHY: not only market prices,
subsidies or technology drive
innovation.
Identifying barriers and drivers in a
broader societal perspective
WHEN: At the start and/or during
an innovation project or programme
for a low carbon society.
WHO: Project /Programme leaders
Policy makers, Analysts/researchers.

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Are you up for a beer?

55. Climate-KIC
MULTI-LEVEL
PERSPECTIVE
analytical framework for transitions
Zurich, January 2015
Javier de Vicente (jadevicen@gmail.com)