Perspectives On The World Food Situation 6

A Perspective on the World Food Situation Presentation by Jim Goering ECHO Agricultural Conference Chiang Mai, Thailand September 22, 2009

By Way of Introduction… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

First Some Historical Perspective What have the “experts” in the past said about future global food security? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The “World Hunger Problem” Today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Underweight children: a serious nutritional issue with long-term consequences ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Where in the World Are the Malnourished? ,[object Object]

Obesity: An Increasingly Important Aspect of the World Food Situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Let’s begin by looking at price changes. In the 40 years, 1960 to 2000, grain and food prices declined almost steadily. ,[object Object],[object Object]

Now let’s look at what’s happened to world food and cereal prices in 2002-08 2002-04 = 100 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],237.9 190.9 2008 121.5 122.4 2006 107.4 111.5 2004 94.6 90.2 2002 Cereals Price Index Overall Food Price index Year

When food prices increase which socio-economic groups are hurt worst? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When food prices rise, civil unrest frequently results. This is Port-Au-Prince, Haiti. In April 2008 food riots resulted in the death of six people, the wounding of 200, and dismissal of the Prime Minister.

Food prices rise because supplies are growing more slowly than the food demand . Let’s first look at factors affecting the global supply of food . (1) The surge in world energy prices and links to nitrogen fertilizer costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A Second Factor Reducing Food Supplies (2) Diversion of corn (maize) to ethanol production. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A third factor reducing food supplies (3) Diversion of oilseeds and oil crops to bio-diesel for use in diesel engines. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Another Factor Reducing Food Supplies (4) Adverse weather or natural disasters ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A recent natural disaster: Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, early May 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object]

Another natural disaster: Six years of drought have sharply reduced Australia’s grain production and exports ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A fifth factor constraining world food production : (5) Declines in public sector/government investment for agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Let’s now look at factors adding to the demand for food. (1) Rapid per capita growth, especially in China and India ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

As incomes grow, dietary habits change. (2) One of the biggest changes is higher per capita consumption of meat. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

This dietary shift toward animal products has added to the global demand for grains. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A third factor adding to global demand for food: Continued population growth. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When world food (i.e., grain) prices increase, who wins? Who loses? The answer is complex! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A new response to food price volatility: international land acquisitions, 2006-09 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some Guidelines on International Land Acquisition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Now a Critical Question: If world food production is to increase and food prices moderated, what is required of the international community? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Another Important Question: What Should be our International Priority? Global Agriculture, Primary Education or the Wars Such as Those in Iraq and Afghanistan? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Let’s Now Shift the Focus from the Past to the Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Bio-fuels in World Agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The US maize-based ethanol program is under increasing attack on environmental, economic—and ethical—grounds. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

US Ethanol Industry Is Facing Tough Times This plant, owned by VeraSun Energy of Brookings, SD, the second biggest ethanol producer in the US, is in SW Minnesota. VeraSun declared bankruptcy in October, 2008.

Cellulosic Ethanol: A Possible Way Forward ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Bio-technology: A Promising, But Sometimes Controversial, New Frontier for Global Agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example #1: Round-up Ready Soybeans ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example #2: Golden Rice A technology with remarkable potential to improve human nutrition. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example #3: Drought-tolerant Corn W ater E fficient M aize for A frica—the WEMA Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example #4: Striga-resistant Grain Sorghum ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example #5: Virus-resistant papaya in the Philippines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Global area planted to bio-tech crops continues to increase rapidly This rapid expansion reflects principally the profitability of the technology, but also environmental benefits (e.g. minimum tillage in Round-up ready crops) Data source : Int’l. Service for Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) 8.7 25 23 No. of countries 11.1 12.0 10.8 Of which “resource-poor” (mn) 10.8 13.3 12 No. of farmers (mn) 9.4 125 114.3 Total hectares (mn) % gain 2008 2007

The US continues to dominate the global area planted to bio-tech crops: 2008 Source: ISAAA Note : (1) No significant area of bio-tech rice and wheat; (2) Only 3 African countries grew bio-tech crops in 2008: S. Africa, Egypt, Burkina Faso. 5 6.7 Rest of world (19 countries) Cotton , tomato, poplar, papaya, sweet pepper 3 3.8 China Canola, maize, soybean, sugar beet 6 7.6 Canada Cotton 6 7.6 India Soybean, maize, cotton 13 15.8 Brazil Soybean, maize cotton 17 21.0 Argentina Soybean, maize, cotton, canola 50 62.5 USA Principal bio-tech crops % of global bio-tech area Area (mn has) Country

What Happens if Ag Research is Inadequately Funded? The case of the brown plant hopper ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Water and World Agriculture The issues : poor global distribution and weak management of available supplies. Total supplies are generally adequate. An important fact : 70% of the world’s fresh water used for irrigation; 30% by industry; 10% human consumption. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

One Consequence of Water Scarcity: Growing political tensions—international and national ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Let’s look more closely at the impact of melting glaciers on global agriculture About 70% of the world’s freshwater supplies is stored in glaciers. Most are now melting at increasing rates. The result: first, downstream flooding; then, decreased river flows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

India’s Gangotri Glacier on the border with China supplies 70% of the Ganges River flow during the dry season. It has receded by 76 meters in the 1996-99 period. ,[object Object],[object Object]

China’s Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are fed by glacial snowmelt on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Receding glaciers is also an African phenomenon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Rapid glacier melt is also of great concern in Latin America Here’s a rendition of the shrinkage and recent disappearance of Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Uncertain Future of the Rocky Ford (Southeast CO) Cantaloupe A Case Study in Agriculture-Urban Competition for Limited Water ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What Can be Done to Address Global Water Scarcity? Keep in mind that today 70% of world’s freshwater supply is used for irrigation; 30% for industry; 10% for human consumption. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Global Soil Degradation From Wind and Water Erosion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Dealing with Soil Degradation: What Has Been Done? What is Being Done? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Uncertainties of Global Climate Change and Agriculture: More is becoming known; much remains unknown ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Among the best documented evidence of global climate change is the rise in sea levels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

This synthesis suggests the truly long term (beyond 2050) negative impact of climate change on agriculture and food supplies will be larger in the southern hemisphere, and in particular, Africa and Australia.

World Agriculture in 2030? A Plausible Scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What are the implications of such scenarios for the work of ECHO and similar organizations? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What do Some of the Experts Now Say About the Future World Food Economy? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

But As We Try to Forecast the Future, It is Well to Keep in Mind the Wisdom of Yogi Berra, Baseball Player and Philosopher: “Prediction is always difficult, especially if it’s about the future! ,[object Object]

Perspectives On The World Food Situation 6

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Perspectives On The World Food Situation 6