1. Southern Hemisphere Adaptation Collaboratory
Dr. Francisco J. Meza
Director Centro de Cambio Global UC
Mark Stafford Smith CSIRO
Patricia Pinho INPE
Santiago 13-14 de noviembre de 2013

2. A Collaboratory - background
1. Adaptation is highly context specific at multiple levels of
governance
–
–
broad general approaches do not satisfy practitioners
need impacts from climate change scenarios in context of other
changes e.g. population trends, development, etc
2. Adaptation options often highly local
–
–
some opportunity to generalise within specific decision areas such as
the water domain or local government coastal infrastructure decisions
practitioners need to learn across locations but be local
3. Investors need to assess whether adaptation investments are
effective
–
•
But monitoring adaptation action is proving difficult.
Many approaches
–
to delivering more local information, supporting local adaptation
planning processes and even action, and perhaps monitoring, but...

4. The level of use to ensure
“Social Foundation”
Raworth, 2012

5. Maintain a safe and resilient
Planet “Environmental ceiling”)
Raworth, 2012

6. IPCC 2007: 1.1-6.4°C?
– probably not any more
2°C: 2065±10y??
IPCC (2007) Summary for Policy Makers (Fig.SPM.5)

7. Adaptation: Towards Sustainable
Agriculture
Howden et al. (2010).

8. Managing the risk from diverging possible futures
Mean Global Warming (°C)
(
6
Three scenarios for the future
Runaway
5
4
Stabilisation
3
2
Recovery
1
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Year
Incremental
adaptation
to changes
of reasonable
certainty possible
Stafford Smith et al 2011, Phil.Trans.Roy.Soc. 369
Adaptation must
increasingly manage
the risk of divergent
possible futures, and
need for transformation
MEP2030
A1FI-GaR
MEP2010 (Overshoot)

9. Are we adapting?
• Growing literature on failure to act on adaptation
» Tompkins et al. (2010). Observed adaptation to climate
change: UK... Global Environmental Change
» Berrang-Ford et al. (2011). Are we adapting to climate
change? Global Environmental Change
– Actually lots happening locally, etc, but also big gaps
» And most organisations are still, at best, planning but not
doing
» When they are doing it is not necessarily (or often) badged as
adaptation
» Measuring it is hard
• What is inhibiting decisions?
– Move to a decision support/solutions-oriented framing
• Is the limitation information? Or social processes?
» Values and institutions
9
|

10. Adaptation science: three perspectives, all needed
Adaptation information and decision-making
Evaluation, adaptation
pathways, future scenarios,
risk management modes, etc
Adaptive
behaviours
and institutions
Adaptation
options and
technologies
Behaviours, incentives,
barriers, adaptive capacity,
vulnerabilities, etc
Cultivars, materials,
farming systems, urban
planning, etc

11. Willows & Connell 2003 UKCIP
IPCC
Problem or solution-centred??

12. History and context
• IAV meeting in San Jose dos Campos, Brazil, Nov 2009:
•
Lahsen et al. (2010). Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2, 364-374.
» “Producing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation knowledge requires greater
inclusion of MLIC researchers and a rethinking of the research structures,
institutions and paradigms that have dominated global change research to
date.”
• 1st Intl Adaptation Conference, Gold Coast, Australia 2010
• Discussions in Chile Oct 2010, La Serena 2011
• 2nd Intl Adaptation Conference, Arizona, USA, 2011
Diverse efforts globally - >300 products/processes reviewed
– ...but limited convergence or sustainability
– PROVIA
1
2
|

13. Adaptation timing and priorities
Today’s decisions
must account for how
long their effects will be felt
Stafford Smith et al, PhilTransRoySoc 2011 (after Jones & McInnes 2004)

14. A Collaboratory - 2
Proposed purpose
– To provide a modular decision support portal for climate adaptation
decision-making in the Southern Hemisphere, as a one stop shop for future
scenarios, sectoral adaptation options, tools for adaptation planning and
decision-making, and an insight into levels of adaptation activity.
– Who is it aimed at and why? adaptation decision-makers in government
and society, to support adaptation readiness and track action
Proposed outputs
a.
b.
c.
a well-recognised web-based portal for adaptation which supplies a
consistent set of background information and tools for adaptation planning
and decision-making, and provides a standardised framework to support
country and sector specific information;
a two-way interactive capacity to absorb and make available credible
information about adaptation options for different sectors and
circumstances;
the ability to contribute to tracking levels of adaptation responses across
the regions.

15. A Collaboratory - 3
Possible components/scope
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
Well-targeted climate and wider social scenarios of the future, as well
as key locally-resolved national datasets and information on potential
impacts drawn from various sources for each country
Guides for use of scenarios that take account of behavioural aspects,
help with choice of vulnerability methods, etc
Suite of planning tools, such as adaptation planning processes,
economic and other assessment methods, etc
Two-way interactive documentation of adaptation options for sectors
regarded as key in each participating country, and decision types within
each sector, with capacity for user entry/accreditation/testing
Process for identifying and documenting barriers to adaptation, for the
information of other levels of governance, etc
Mechanism for starting to track actual adaptation responses across key
sectors

16. Southern Hemisphere commonalities: comparative
advantages?

17. Proposed Themes (Initial Focus)
• 1. Infrastructure
• 2. Food (Water) Security

18. AguaScapes
Innovative Science and Influential Policy Dialogues for Water Security in the
Arid Americas
Project
AguaScapes
Case Studies in
AguaScapes
Case Study
Maipo & Elqui
Basin
In keywords: global change research, policy
engagement with stakeholders, 5
participating countries
• Emphasis on water security
• 5 “principal basins” and 5 “analogue basins”
• Project runs until 2017
25/11/2013
Francisco Meza
18

19. AguaScapes
Research Approach
25/11/2013
Francisco Meza
19

20. Thank you
Francisco Meza
Director - Center for Global Change
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
fmeza@uc.cl