12. The Living Planet Index measures trends in the Earth’s biological diversity 09/27/11 SEN-DP Between 1970 and 2003, the index fell by about 30%. This global trend suggests that we are degrading natural ecosystems at a rate unprecedented in human history. Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and waste generation Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot–the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity–as of 2003 by about 25%.
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15. The Global Aspects Taught by Gandhi “ If every inhabitant of this earth were to consume as much as the inhabitants of the wealthy countries, we would need a second Earth .” But the present data tells us we already need a third Earth if everyone consumed the same amount of fossil fuel.
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19. Climate Change and Its Consequences The Greatest Challenge Basics of Climate Change What is it meant for us?
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22. Source: IPCC-AR4 Global Mean Temperature Accelerating Rate of warming (°C per decade) 1850 – 2005 => 0.045 1905 – 2005 => 0.074 1955 – 2005 => 0.128 1980 – 2005 => 0.177 Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999
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24. " Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare ” (Art 1. UNFCCC, 1992). Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to have declined relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world, resulting in 24 million additional malnourished children , 21% more relative to a world without climate change (IFPRI, 2009).
29. It is the chemical composition which has changed the most significantly in the last 200 years
30. Some of the main greenhouse gases Name Pre-ind conc ppmv 1998 con ppmv Atmosph lifetime yr Main anthropogenic source GWP Water 1 to 3 1 to 3 Few days CO 2 280 365 Variable Fossil fuels, cement, land use change 1 CH 4 0.7 1.75 12 Fossil fuels, rice paddy, waste dumps, livestock 23 N 2 0 0.27 0.31 114 Fertilizers, combustion 296 CHF 3 0 0.000014 260 Electronics, refrigerant 12000 SF 6 0 0.0000042 3200 Dielectric fluid 22200
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32. CO2 concentration has changed over millennia & global temperature follows similar pattern Then if we look at some other evidence:
44. Climate Change Scenario: Nepal Observed and Projected Climate - what we expect Weather - what we get
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46. Climate Scenario Plausible representations of the future that are consistent with assumptions about future emissions of GHG and with our understanding of the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of these gases on global climate.
53. Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day) (Source: DHM) Number of days with rain >= 100 mm 1977 1992, 35 1987, 106 1998 1975 1982 y = 0.5997x + 61.417 R 2 = 0.0984 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Days
64. Warmer Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Temperature Change Projection For Late 21 st Century Climate Change Projection Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM)
65. PRECIS projection of mean temperature change over Nepal by the end of 21st century
66. Wetter Future Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India Change in Annual Rainfall Up to 30% increase Climate Change Projection- Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM)
68. Wetter Summer Drier Winter Change in Seasonal Rainfall Climate Change Projection- Late 21 st Century (Karmacharya, DHM) Model output from PRECIS run at IITM, India
75. Study area (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Rainfall Change Projection (%) All Nepal Average 15.5 At Study Grid 10.4 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 10.7
76. (WWF/SEN, 2008) Area Temp. Change Projection (C) All Nepal Average 4.2 At Study Grid 4.7 Average over 9 grid with study site at center 4.2 Study area
77. Temperature extremes are shifting to warmer regime (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Summer days (25) trend at Jumla Warm nights' trend at Jumla
78. Significant decreasing trend in annual total rainfall (Practical Action/SEN, 2009) Trend of total rainfall on wet days at Jumla Trend of annual count of days when rainfall > 10 mm at Jumla
79. Increased risk of flash flood and drought in different seasons Consecutive dry day trend at Rasuwa Consecutive wet day trend at Rasuwa
95. The Triad Model of Social Change Motivate Capacity Opportunity
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98. “ I am no longer skeptical …climate change is the major challenge facing the world” Sir David Attenborough “ Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism” Sir David King The Atlas of Climate Change Mapping the world’s greatest challenge
Notas del editor
The red line (1000-1860) shows the 50-year average, and the gray region the 95% confidence limit in the annual data. The red line (1860-2000) shows the decadal average. Over the period 2000 to 2100, projections are shown of globally averaged surface temp for the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a as estimated by a model with average climate sensitivity. The grey region – ‘several models all SRES envelope”
Nearly one in three Asians today lives on less than one US dollar per day. The climate models project a warming of at least 2.5°C over Asia by the end of the century. According to the Global Human Development Report 2007/08, Nepal’s Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.534 is the lowest for South Asia and less than the average for the developing countries. The incidence of poverty is 31 percent
Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas. However, human activities have little direct impact on its concentration in the atmosphere. In contrast, we have a large impact on the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. In order to be able to compare how different gases contribute to the greenhouse effect, a method has been developed to estimate their global warming potentials (GWP). GWPs depend on the capacity of greenhouse gas molecules to absorb or trap heat and the time the molecules remain in the atmosphere before being removed or broken down. The GWP of carbon dioxide is 1 (constant for all time periods) and the GWPs of other greenhouse gases are measured relative to it. Even though methane and nitrous oxide have much higher GWPs than carbon dioxide, because their concentration in the atmosphere is much lower, carbon dioxide remains the most important greenhouse gas, contributing about 60% to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect.
A range of scenarios can be used to identify the sensitivity of an exposure unit to climate change and to help policy makers decide on appropriate policy responses. It is important to emphasize that climate scenarios are not predictions, like weather forecasts. Weather forecasts make use of enormous quantities of information on the observed state of the atmosphere and calculate, using the laws of physics, how this state will evolve during the next few days, producing a prediction of the future - a forecast. In contrast, a climate scenario is a plausible indication of what the future could be like over decades or centuries, given a specific set of assumptions. These assumptions include future trends in energy demand, emissions of greenhouse gases, land use change as well as assumptions about the behavior of the climate system over long time scales. It is largely the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions which determines the range of possible scenarios. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) provides 40 different scenarios. The choice of climate scenarios and related non-climatic scenarios is important because it can determine the outcome of a climate impact assessment. Extreme scenarios can produce extreme impacts; moderate scenarios may produce more modest effects. It follows that the selection of scenarios can also be controversial, unless the fundamental uncertainties inherent in future projections are properly addressed in the impact analysis.
A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships, that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the raw material for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require additional information such as about the observed current climate. A “climate change scenario” is the difference between a climate scenario and the current climate.
Substantial Warming (3.5 o C – 5 o C )
Source: Sharma, DHM
The National Communication indicates that overall precipitation in Nepal is decreasing at the rate of 9.8mm/decade, using data from 1981-1999, and that monsoon precipitation increased at 8.4mm/decade over the same period (National Communication 2004). The IPCC however, cite studies indicating that there has been no long term trend in precipitation in Nepal for the period 1948-1994 (IPCC 2007b). This highlights the fact that even for current trends, it is much harder to accurately assess precipitation. Positive trend (~30 mm/decade) at Chaurikharka- closest met stn from site. But trend is much higher in teria and apparently annual rf trend decrease with elevation with much smaller trend (+ve or –ve) at high altitude
TN10p Cool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile Days TX10p Cool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile Days TN90p Warm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile Days TX90pWarm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile Days