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Do Men and Women Accumulate Assets in
           Different Ways?
    Evidence from Rural Bangladesh
                  Agnes Quisumbing
      International Food Policy Research Institute

                        May 2011




                                                Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Introduction
• This paper attempts to bring together two threads of the
  literature on assets:
• (1) literature on asset dynamics and poverty traps
  (Carter and May; Carter and Barrett; others)
• (2) literature on risk and intrahousehold allocation, that
  suggests that risk are not pooled within the household
• Earlier work on (1) using data from Bangladesh focused
  on hh asset dynamics; found no evidence for multiple
  poverty traps, possibly because of reasonably well-
  functioning factor markets (labor and credit markets,
  although credit markets may discriminate against the
  landless)

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE             Page 2
Why look at gender-differentiated asset dynamics?

• General: evidence that risk is not pooled within households
  (Ethiopia—Dercon and Krishnan; Cote d‘Ivoire—Dulfo and Udry;
  Ghana—Goldstein) and that risk perceptions may also differ
  between men and women (East Africa--Doss, McPeak, Barrett)
• There is also evidence rejecting unitary model of the household
  in many countries and specifically for Bangladesh—resources
  are not pooled within the household
• Social norms favoring female seclusion lead women to be
  systematically excluded from labor markets in Bangladesh
• Anthropological evidence (Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh)
  suggests that men and women have different asset
  accumulation strategies, and use their assets in different ways
  to cope with shocks


 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                Page 3
Research questions
• Are asset dynamics different for joint and exclusively-
  held assets? How do these differ from household asset
  dynamics?
• Is the impact of negative events and processes (flood
  shocks, dowries, illness, death) different on husband-,
  wife- and jointly-owned assets? Are these mitigated by
  positive events?

• …And a policy-related question
• What are the implications for the design of social
  protection systems?


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE           Page 4
Presentation overview
1. Conceptual framework and methods
2. Survey design and data
     •      Assets and traps:The CPRC-DATA-IFPRI longitudinal study
     •      Gender and assets: The agricultural technology panel
3.       Descriptives
4.       Nonparametric results
5.       Parametric results
6.       Concluding remarks




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                      Page 5
Conceptual framework
• Barrett, Carter, others: theory of dynamic
  poverty traps, empirically tested using data from
  SSA
• Based on observation that it is easier to measure
  assets than consumption expenditure or income
• Parametric and nonparametric methods used to
  derive a dynamic asset frontier, showing
  relationship between hh asset holdings in two
  periods


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE     Page 6
At+1                      At= At+1



                      f(At)




                                     At
       AL   A*   AH
• AL: stable low level equilibrium
• A*: unstable mid-level equilbrium
• AH: stable high level equilbrium
• Prediction is that hh‘s asset trajectories will
  bifurcate, with hh‘s with A>A* tending toward the
  high level equilibrium, and those with A<A*
  tending to the low level equilibrium
• Some hhs will tend toward a chronically poor
  state, and others toward relative affluence


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE    Page 8
How to estimate the dynamic asset frontier?
• Nonparametric methods: we use locally-
  weighted scatterplot smoothing (Lowess)
  (Cleveland 1979)
• Parametric methods: use a linear term in lagged
  assets, plus higher order terms to allow
  curvature

• What is different in this paper: we estimate this
  for husband-owned, wife-owned, and jointly
  owned land and nonland assets

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE     Page 9
General empirical specification
• We estimate the following nonparametrically:
• At+1 = ß (At) + εt
• The analogous parametric regression is:
•       At+1 = (1 + α)At + θt, which is estimated in differenced
   form as
•       At+1 - At = αAt + θt
• Dynamic equilibrium: at least in expectation, asset stocks
   do not change over time, that is,
•       E[At+1 - At ] =0
• Condition for dynamic eqbm at A*:
- 2 < ∂ E[At+1 - At ]/ ∂ At │A* ≤ 0

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE               Page 10
Empirical specification
Ait-AiB= ß0 + ß1 AiB + ß2AiB2 + ß3AiB3 + ß4AiB4+
   ZiΓi + CiΛi + εit
Ait -ln AiB asset growth for asset owner i from
   baseline survey period (B) to the most recent
   survey (T)
AiB assets at baseline
Zi and Ci are time invariant individual, household,
   and community characteristics and ε­it is the
   error term
Tests for convergence: tests on coefficients

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE        Page 11
Survey design and data




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE      Page 12
Assets and traps: The CPRC-DATA-IFPRI Study--1

• Longitudinal study seeks to examine factors
  behind movements out of poverty over the long-
  term, as well as factors that make some
  households and individuals unable to escape
  poverty
• Builds on three evaluations undertaken by DATA
  and IFPRI
      • Microfinance (MFI) from 1994
      • Agricultural Technology (AT) from 1996
      • Educational Transfers (ET) from 2000


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE            Page 13
The CPRC-DATA-IFPRI Study--2

      • A qualitative and quantitative methods study with 3
        phases:
         • Summer 2006: focus group discussions
           investigating causes of decline and improvement
           and the long term impact of 3 interventions (116
           FGDs in 11 districts)
         • Winter 2006-7: quant resurvey of panel
           households
            (1787 core + 365 splits)
         • Spring-Summer 2007: life history interviews and
           village histories in 8 districts (160 households –
           300 interviews)


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE              Page 14
Map of study sites of longitudinal study




                                       Page 15
Agricultural technology study: 1996-1997

 • Only site with gender-disaggregated asset data at baseline
 • 3 technologies/implementation modalities:
 1. improved vegetables for homestead production, disseminated through
     women‘s groups (Saturia)
 2. fishpond technology through women‘s groups (Jessore)
 3. fish pond technology targeted to individuals (Mymensingh)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                                                                    Page 16
Page 17
To recap: Survey design and sampling

• Panel data set with gender disaggregated data includes
  904 core households previously surveyed by DATA and
  IFPRI in 1996-97, as well as household splits; estimation
  sample is smaller (725 hhs with complete information on
  husband and wife)
• Core households are those that were interviewed in
  baseline and 2006/7 rounds
• Split households are those formed by children who
  formed separate residences (tracked within district)—not
  included in this analysis




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Attrition

• Attrition is relatively low: 93.7 percent of original
  households were reinterviewed, and the attrition rate is
  about 0.4 percent per year in the agricultural technology
  site
• Attrition rates for hhs are about 4-11% for households
  across interventions, but for ―intact couples‖ attrition is
  higher, 17% (over a 10-year period)
• To account for attrition, all regressions estimated with
  inverse probability weights (Fitzgerald, Gottschalk, Moffitt
  1998)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Poverty and poverty transition categories

                                               Agricultural
                                               technology
                                               (1996-2006)

               Poverty headcount
               Poverty in baseline             70%
               survey
               Poverty in 2006/2007            18%
               Poverty transitions
               Chronic poor                    16%
               Falling into poverty            2%
               Moving out of poverty           54%
               Never poor                      28%


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Asset growth of core households over time

        Asset holdings                                 Household assets

        Value (‗1000 taka, 2007 prices)        1996        2006     Annual
                                                                    growth rate
        Total nonland assets                   27.0        49.7     8.4
        Consumer durables                      8.13        15.8     9.4
        Ag durables                            4.8         1.5      -6.9
        Nonag durables                         1.2         4.4      25.8
        Jewelry                                2.5         11.1     35.2
        Livestock                              10.5        17.0     6.3


        Total owned land (decimals)            148.5       117.4    -2.1



INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                      Page 22
Asset growth over time , 1996 and 2006
                        (exclusively held assets)
                                               1996             2006         % change
                                     H            W      H        W      H       W
 Landholdings (decimals)
 Homestead                           10.3         .3     10.9     0.6    5.8     44.5
 Cultivated                          85.9         1.9    67.9     3.2    -21.0   39.7
 Other land                          5.4          .1     5.0      0.2    -8.9    6.1
 Total owned land                    101.7        2.4    83.8     4.0    -17.6   39.2
 Nonland assets („000 taka, 2007 prices)
 Consumer durables                   2.2          .3     5.8      0.4    166.4   40.8
 Ag durables                         1.6          n.s.   0.6      n.s.   -62.7   6.2
 Nonag durables                      0.5          n.s.   3.3      0.1    494.3   428.9
 Jewelry                             n.s.         1.5    1.5      2.1    5262.2 38.5
 Livestock                           5.8          1.7    9.1      1.1    57.5    -31.9
  Nonland assets (excl               4.4          1.8    11.2     2.6    155.3   42.1
  livestock)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                       Page 23
Distribution of area of owned land across ownership
                      categories

                     1996                       2006




                                      Joint            Joint
                                      Husband          Husband
                                      Wife             Wife




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE              Page 24
Distribution of nonland assets across ownership categories



                     1996                       2006




                                      Joint            Joint
                                      Husband          Husband
                                      Wife             Wife




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE              Page 25
Most common shocks experienced by households, 1996-
                        2006




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Proportion of households reporting negative shocks,
                      1997-2001 and 2002-2006

                   50

                   45

                   40

                   35

                   30
                                                                                       Illness, 1997-2001
      Proportion of
                    25
       households                                                                      Illness, 2002-2006
                   20                                                                  Death, 1997-2001
                                                                                       Death, 2002-2006
                   15
                                                                                       Dowry and wedding, 1997-2001
                   10
                                                                                       Dowry and wedding, 2002-2006
                    5

                    0
                           Illness,  Illness,  Death,    Death, Dowry and Dowry and
                         1997-2001 2002-2006 1997-2001 2002-2006 wedding, wedding,
                                                                 1997-2001 2002-2006
                                            Type of negative shock




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                                  Page 27
Proportion of households reporting positive events,
                   1997-2001 and 2002-2006

                           9

                           8

                           7

                           6

                           5
Proportion of households
                           4
                                                                        Remittances, 1997-2001
                           3                                            Remittances, 2002-2006

                           2                                            Inheritance, 1997-2001
                                                                        Inheritance, 2002-2006
                           1
                                                                        Dowry received, 1997-2001
                           0                                            Dowry received, 2002-2006




                                               Type of positive event




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                            Page 28
Parametric specification
Ait-AiB= ß0 + ß1 AiB + ß2AiB2 + ß3AiB3 + ß4AiB4+
   ZiΓi + CiΛi + εit
Dependent var: Asset growth
Regressors: Lagged assets (linear, squared, cubed, fourth)
Covariate shocks (floods)
Idiosyncratic shocks (illness, death, dowry/wedding expenses)
Positive events (remittances, inheritance, received dowry)
HH demographic characteristics: age of head, age squared, hh size,
    proportion in age-sex categories
Value of (assets) land at baseline [assets in land equation; land in
    assets equation)
Thana dummies



INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                      Page 29
Results




          Page 30
Lowess plots for land (scale of axes not uniform across graphs)

                                         Household land                                                                                              Jointly-held land
                                        2000




                                                                                                                                                     1000
                                                                                                                                                        800
                                        1500




                                                                                                                                   Joint Land 2007
                        Own Land 2007




                                                                                                                                                        600
                                        1000




                                                                                                                                                        400
                                           500




                                                                                                                                                        200
                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                  0




                                                                                                                                                                   0       500                     1000     1500
                                                          0       500         1000      1500    2000
                                                                        Own Land 1997                                                                                            Joint Land 1997




                                          Husband’s land                                                                                             Wife’s land
                                                 1500




                                                                                                                                                            150
Own Land Husband 2007




                                                 1000




                                                                                                              Own Land Wife 2007




                                                                                                                                                            100
                                                    500




                                                                                                                                                              50
                                                                                                                                                                  0
                                                          0




                                                              0         500              1000          1500                                                            0     50                       100      150
                                                                        Own Land husband 1997                                                                                    Own Land Wife 1997
Lowess plots for nonland assets
150000
             Household                                                                                                          Jointly-held assets




                                                                                                                            150000
                                                       Value of Joint Assets 2007
100000




                                                                                                                            100000
                                                                                                                                 50000
     50000




                                                                                                                                                  0
               0




                                                                                                                                                      0           50000                 100000        150000
                   0     50000              100000                                                              150000
                            Value of Assets 1996                                                                                                                  Value of Joint Assets 1996




   Husband’s assets                                                                                                                        Wife’s assets
150000




                                                                                                                                         150000
100000




                                                                                    Value of Wife Assets 2007




                                                                                                                                         100000
     50000




                                                                                                                                              50000


                                                                                                                                                          0
               0




                   0      50000               100000                                                               150000                                     0       50000                  100000       150000
                         Value of Husband Assets 1996                                                                                                                     Value of Wife Assets 1996
Parametric results: Land
• Initial landholdings matter for jointly-owned and wife-
  owned land but not husband-owned land (acquired
  mostly through inheritance)
• Individual and hh characteristics significant for husband-
  owned land: wife‘s schooling (+), proportion of older
  males at baseline (+), nonland assets (+)
• Very few individual and household characteristics affect
  growth of joint- and wife-owned land; wife owned land is
  affected by wife‘s schooling (-) and location (Jessore +)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE            Page 33
Parametric results: Nonland assets
• Initial assets matter for joint and husbands‘ assets, but
  not wife‘s assets
• Baseline characteristics matter:
• Joint assets: higher levels of schooling (+),
  demographics
• Husbands‘ assets: hh size (-), wife‘s schooling (+)
• Wife‘s assets: age and age squared (life cycle factors)
• Location dummies important




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE             Page 34
Impact of shocks on exclusively held land is not symmetric

 Shocks and positive events                                 Land
                                               Joint      Husbands   Wives

 “Earlier shocks”
 97-01      Death
 97-01      Dowry and wedding                  Positive
                                               (weak)
 97-01      Dowry receipts                                           Negative
                                                                     (weak)
 “Later shocks”
 02-06      Death                                         Negative   Positive
                                                                     (weak)
 02-06      Remittances                        Positive
                                               (weak)
 02-06      Dowry receipts                                           Negative
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                    Page 35
Impact of shocks on exclusively held nonland assets is not
                     symmetric either
 Shocks and positive events                               Nonland assets
                                               Joint       Husbands    Wives
 “Earlier shocks”
 97-01      Floods                             Negative
                                               (weak)
 97-01      Illness                                                    Positive
                                                                       (weak)
 97-01      Dowry and wedding                              Negative
 97-01      Inheritance                                    Positive    Positive
 “Later shocks”
 02-06      Illness                                        Negative    Negative
                                                           (weak)
 02-06      Death                              Negative

 02-06      Dowry and wedding                              Positive

 02-06      Remittances                        Positive
 02-06      Inheritance
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE               Negative    Negative   Page 36
Life-cycle events are clearly important determinants of
              asset accumulation and decumulation

• Dowry and wedding expenses reduce husbands‘ assets
  (dowry receipts increase joint assets, but reduce wife‘s
  assets)
• Death reduces husband‘s assets
• Early inheritance increases assets, later inheritance
  reduces it (associated with a death, or property division)
• Remittances associated with children growing up and
  working tend to increase joint assets

• Question: are there better ways to prepare for (save
  for?) these life-cycle events?


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE              Page 37
Impact of shocks on husband-wife growth differs by type of
                 asset and type of shock
 Shocks and positive events                    Land        Nonland
                                               (ΔH -Δ W)   assets
                                                           (ΔH -Δ W)

 Floods
 97-01         Illness
 97-01         Death                                       Wife (+)
 97-01         Dowry and wedding                           Wife (+)
 97-01         Remittances                                 Wife (+)
 97-01         Inheritance                                 Husband (+)
 “Later shocks”
 02-06         Illness
 02-06         Death                           Wife (+)
 02-06         Dowry and wedding

 02-06         Remittances
 02-06         Inheritance
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE               Wife (+)    Page 38
Familial networks matter, but not in the same way
                                      Land                        Nonland assets
                    Joint          Husband     Wife       Joint       Husband    Wife
 Husband‘s                         Negative
 brothers
 Husbands           Negative       Positive
 sisters
 Distance to                                   Positive
 husband‘s
 village
 Wife‘s                                                               Negative
 brothers
 Wife‘s sisters
 Distance to                       Negative               Negative
 wife‘s village




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                       Page 39
Conclusions--1
• Very interesting evidence on gender-differentiated asset
  growth over a decade
• Asset growth positive for men and women, but faster for
  men (less unequal when looking at jointly held assets)
• Raises questions about control of jointly held assets
• Composition of men‘s and women‘s asset portfolios also
  changing as households diversify into non-agriculture,
  and as women get more involved in agriculture (possibly
  owing to NGO interventions)




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE          Page 40
Conclusions--2

• Shocks appear to have differential impacts--women‘s
  assets are negatively affected by illness, men‘s by death,
  illness, and dowry and wedding expenses
• Illness is the shock most frequently reported by
  households=>implications for asset disposal?
• Life-cycle events (dowries, weddings, death) important,
  how to better prepare for them?
• This analysis has also been done for disaggregated
  assets, indicates that there is a lot of movement in
  consumer durables and agricultural durables, also
  livestock and jewelry


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE            Page 41
Implications--1
• Need to devise social protection strategy to provide
  insurance against shocks
• Health insurance may help protect asset stocks (as well
  as individual health)
• Social safety nets (public works, income transfer
  programs) may help prevent asset depletion, which
  would also help protect future livelihoods
• What to do with dowries? Good question!
• Important to increase incentives to invest in women‘s
  human capital as well as to increase returns to human
  capital (e.g. remove barriers to labor market
  participation)

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE          Page 42
Implications--2
• Need to provide mechanisms for poor to save and build
  up asset stocks, and to rebuild them after shocks
• Need to provide mechanisms to prepare adequately for
  (anticipated) life-cycle events
• Women, in particular, need to be able to build up assets
  (savings?) that they can control




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE           Page 43

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Gender assets shocks_ifpri bbl may 2011

  • 1. Do Men and Women Accumulate Assets in Different Ways? Evidence from Rural Bangladesh Agnes Quisumbing International Food Policy Research Institute May 2011 Tuesday, June 21, 2011
  • 2. Introduction • This paper attempts to bring together two threads of the literature on assets: • (1) literature on asset dynamics and poverty traps (Carter and May; Carter and Barrett; others) • (2) literature on risk and intrahousehold allocation, that suggests that risk are not pooled within the household • Earlier work on (1) using data from Bangladesh focused on hh asset dynamics; found no evidence for multiple poverty traps, possibly because of reasonably well- functioning factor markets (labor and credit markets, although credit markets may discriminate against the landless) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
  • 3. Why look at gender-differentiated asset dynamics? • General: evidence that risk is not pooled within households (Ethiopia—Dercon and Krishnan; Cote d‘Ivoire—Dulfo and Udry; Ghana—Goldstein) and that risk perceptions may also differ between men and women (East Africa--Doss, McPeak, Barrett) • There is also evidence rejecting unitary model of the household in many countries and specifically for Bangladesh—resources are not pooled within the household • Social norms favoring female seclusion lead women to be systematically excluded from labor markets in Bangladesh • Anthropological evidence (Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh) suggests that men and women have different asset accumulation strategies, and use their assets in different ways to cope with shocks INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3
  • 4. Research questions • Are asset dynamics different for joint and exclusively- held assets? How do these differ from household asset dynamics? • Is the impact of negative events and processes (flood shocks, dowries, illness, death) different on husband-, wife- and jointly-owned assets? Are these mitigated by positive events? • …And a policy-related question • What are the implications for the design of social protection systems? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4
  • 5. Presentation overview 1. Conceptual framework and methods 2. Survey design and data • Assets and traps:The CPRC-DATA-IFPRI longitudinal study • Gender and assets: The agricultural technology panel 3. Descriptives 4. Nonparametric results 5. Parametric results 6. Concluding remarks INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 5
  • 6. Conceptual framework • Barrett, Carter, others: theory of dynamic poverty traps, empirically tested using data from SSA • Based on observation that it is easier to measure assets than consumption expenditure or income • Parametric and nonparametric methods used to derive a dynamic asset frontier, showing relationship between hh asset holdings in two periods INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 6
  • 7. At+1 At= At+1 f(At) At AL A* AH
  • 8. • AL: stable low level equilibrium • A*: unstable mid-level equilbrium • AH: stable high level equilbrium • Prediction is that hh‘s asset trajectories will bifurcate, with hh‘s with A>A* tending toward the high level equilibrium, and those with A<A* tending to the low level equilibrium • Some hhs will tend toward a chronically poor state, and others toward relative affluence INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 8
  • 9. How to estimate the dynamic asset frontier? • Nonparametric methods: we use locally- weighted scatterplot smoothing (Lowess) (Cleveland 1979) • Parametric methods: use a linear term in lagged assets, plus higher order terms to allow curvature • What is different in this paper: we estimate this for husband-owned, wife-owned, and jointly owned land and nonland assets INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 9
  • 10. General empirical specification • We estimate the following nonparametrically: • At+1 = ß (At) + εt • The analogous parametric regression is: • At+1 = (1 + α)At + θt, which is estimated in differenced form as • At+1 - At = αAt + θt • Dynamic equilibrium: at least in expectation, asset stocks do not change over time, that is, • E[At+1 - At ] =0 • Condition for dynamic eqbm at A*: - 2 < ∂ E[At+1 - At ]/ ∂ At │A* ≤ 0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
  • 11. Empirical specification Ait-AiB= ß0 + ß1 AiB + ß2AiB2 + ß3AiB3 + ß4AiB4+ ZiΓi + CiΛi + εit Ait -ln AiB asset growth for asset owner i from baseline survey period (B) to the most recent survey (T) AiB assets at baseline Zi and Ci are time invariant individual, household, and community characteristics and ε­it is the error term Tests for convergence: tests on coefficients INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11
  • 12. Survey design and data INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 12
  • 13. Assets and traps: The CPRC-DATA-IFPRI Study--1 • Longitudinal study seeks to examine factors behind movements out of poverty over the long- term, as well as factors that make some households and individuals unable to escape poverty • Builds on three evaluations undertaken by DATA and IFPRI • Microfinance (MFI) from 1994 • Agricultural Technology (AT) from 1996 • Educational Transfers (ET) from 2000 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 13
  • 14. The CPRC-DATA-IFPRI Study--2 • A qualitative and quantitative methods study with 3 phases: • Summer 2006: focus group discussions investigating causes of decline and improvement and the long term impact of 3 interventions (116 FGDs in 11 districts) • Winter 2006-7: quant resurvey of panel households (1787 core + 365 splits) • Spring-Summer 2007: life history interviews and village histories in 8 districts (160 households – 300 interviews) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
  • 15. Map of study sites of longitudinal study Page 15
  • 16. Agricultural technology study: 1996-1997 • Only site with gender-disaggregated asset data at baseline • 3 technologies/implementation modalities: 1. improved vegetables for homestead production, disseminated through women‘s groups (Saturia) 2. fishpond technology through women‘s groups (Jessore) 3. fish pond technology targeted to individuals (Mymensingh) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 16
  • 18. To recap: Survey design and sampling • Panel data set with gender disaggregated data includes 904 core households previously surveyed by DATA and IFPRI in 1996-97, as well as household splits; estimation sample is smaller (725 hhs with complete information on husband and wife) • Core households are those that were interviewed in baseline and 2006/7 rounds • Split households are those formed by children who formed separate residences (tracked within district)—not included in this analysis INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 19. Attrition • Attrition is relatively low: 93.7 percent of original households were reinterviewed, and the attrition rate is about 0.4 percent per year in the agricultural technology site • Attrition rates for hhs are about 4-11% for households across interventions, but for ―intact couples‖ attrition is higher, 17% (over a 10-year period) • To account for attrition, all regressions estimated with inverse probability weights (Fitzgerald, Gottschalk, Moffitt 1998) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 20. Poverty and poverty transition categories Agricultural technology (1996-2006) Poverty headcount Poverty in baseline 70% survey Poverty in 2006/2007 18% Poverty transitions Chronic poor 16% Falling into poverty 2% Moving out of poverty 54% Never poor 28% INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 21. Asset growth of core households over time Asset holdings Household assets Value (‗1000 taka, 2007 prices) 1996 2006 Annual growth rate Total nonland assets 27.0 49.7 8.4 Consumer durables 8.13 15.8 9.4 Ag durables 4.8 1.5 -6.9 Nonag durables 1.2 4.4 25.8 Jewelry 2.5 11.1 35.2 Livestock 10.5 17.0 6.3 Total owned land (decimals) 148.5 117.4 -2.1 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 22
  • 22. Asset growth over time , 1996 and 2006 (exclusively held assets) 1996 2006 % change H W H W H W Landholdings (decimals) Homestead 10.3 .3 10.9 0.6 5.8 44.5 Cultivated 85.9 1.9 67.9 3.2 -21.0 39.7 Other land 5.4 .1 5.0 0.2 -8.9 6.1 Total owned land 101.7 2.4 83.8 4.0 -17.6 39.2 Nonland assets („000 taka, 2007 prices) Consumer durables 2.2 .3 5.8 0.4 166.4 40.8 Ag durables 1.6 n.s. 0.6 n.s. -62.7 6.2 Nonag durables 0.5 n.s. 3.3 0.1 494.3 428.9 Jewelry n.s. 1.5 1.5 2.1 5262.2 38.5 Livestock 5.8 1.7 9.1 1.1 57.5 -31.9 Nonland assets (excl 4.4 1.8 11.2 2.6 155.3 42.1 livestock) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 23
  • 23. Distribution of area of owned land across ownership categories 1996 2006 Joint Joint Husband Husband Wife Wife INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 24
  • 24. Distribution of nonland assets across ownership categories 1996 2006 Joint Joint Husband Husband Wife Wife INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 25
  • 25. Most common shocks experienced by households, 1996- 2006 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 26. Proportion of households reporting negative shocks, 1997-2001 and 2002-2006 50 45 40 35 30 Illness, 1997-2001 Proportion of 25 households Illness, 2002-2006 20 Death, 1997-2001 Death, 2002-2006 15 Dowry and wedding, 1997-2001 10 Dowry and wedding, 2002-2006 5 0 Illness, Illness, Death, Death, Dowry and Dowry and 1997-2001 2002-2006 1997-2001 2002-2006 wedding, wedding, 1997-2001 2002-2006 Type of negative shock INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 27
  • 27. Proportion of households reporting positive events, 1997-2001 and 2002-2006 9 8 7 6 5 Proportion of households 4 Remittances, 1997-2001 3 Remittances, 2002-2006 2 Inheritance, 1997-2001 Inheritance, 2002-2006 1 Dowry received, 1997-2001 0 Dowry received, 2002-2006 Type of positive event INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 28
  • 28. Parametric specification Ait-AiB= ß0 + ß1 AiB + ß2AiB2 + ß3AiB3 + ß4AiB4+ ZiΓi + CiΛi + εit Dependent var: Asset growth Regressors: Lagged assets (linear, squared, cubed, fourth) Covariate shocks (floods) Idiosyncratic shocks (illness, death, dowry/wedding expenses) Positive events (remittances, inheritance, received dowry) HH demographic characteristics: age of head, age squared, hh size, proportion in age-sex categories Value of (assets) land at baseline [assets in land equation; land in assets equation) Thana dummies INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 29
  • 29. Results Page 30
  • 30. Lowess plots for land (scale of axes not uniform across graphs) Household land Jointly-held land 2000 1000 800 1500 Joint Land 2007 Own Land 2007 600 1000 400 500 200 0 0 0 500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Own Land 1997 Joint Land 1997 Husband’s land Wife’s land 1500 150 Own Land Husband 2007 1000 Own Land Wife 2007 100 500 50 0 0 0 500 1000 1500 0 50 100 150 Own Land husband 1997 Own Land Wife 1997
  • 31. Lowess plots for nonland assets 150000 Household Jointly-held assets 150000 Value of Joint Assets 2007 100000 100000 50000 50000 0 0 0 50000 100000 150000 0 50000 100000 150000 Value of Assets 1996 Value of Joint Assets 1996 Husband’s assets Wife’s assets 150000 150000 100000 Value of Wife Assets 2007 100000 50000 50000 0 0 0 50000 100000 150000 0 50000 100000 150000 Value of Husband Assets 1996 Value of Wife Assets 1996
  • 32. Parametric results: Land • Initial landholdings matter for jointly-owned and wife- owned land but not husband-owned land (acquired mostly through inheritance) • Individual and hh characteristics significant for husband- owned land: wife‘s schooling (+), proportion of older males at baseline (+), nonland assets (+) • Very few individual and household characteristics affect growth of joint- and wife-owned land; wife owned land is affected by wife‘s schooling (-) and location (Jessore +) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 33
  • 33. Parametric results: Nonland assets • Initial assets matter for joint and husbands‘ assets, but not wife‘s assets • Baseline characteristics matter: • Joint assets: higher levels of schooling (+), demographics • Husbands‘ assets: hh size (-), wife‘s schooling (+) • Wife‘s assets: age and age squared (life cycle factors) • Location dummies important INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 34
  • 34. Impact of shocks on exclusively held land is not symmetric Shocks and positive events Land Joint Husbands Wives “Earlier shocks” 97-01 Death 97-01 Dowry and wedding Positive (weak) 97-01 Dowry receipts Negative (weak) “Later shocks” 02-06 Death Negative Positive (weak) 02-06 Remittances Positive (weak) 02-06 Dowry receipts Negative INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 35
  • 35. Impact of shocks on exclusively held nonland assets is not symmetric either Shocks and positive events Nonland assets Joint Husbands Wives “Earlier shocks” 97-01 Floods Negative (weak) 97-01 Illness Positive (weak) 97-01 Dowry and wedding Negative 97-01 Inheritance Positive Positive “Later shocks” 02-06 Illness Negative Negative (weak) 02-06 Death Negative 02-06 Dowry and wedding Positive 02-06 Remittances Positive 02-06 Inheritance INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Negative Negative Page 36
  • 36. Life-cycle events are clearly important determinants of asset accumulation and decumulation • Dowry and wedding expenses reduce husbands‘ assets (dowry receipts increase joint assets, but reduce wife‘s assets) • Death reduces husband‘s assets • Early inheritance increases assets, later inheritance reduces it (associated with a death, or property division) • Remittances associated with children growing up and working tend to increase joint assets • Question: are there better ways to prepare for (save for?) these life-cycle events? INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 37
  • 37. Impact of shocks on husband-wife growth differs by type of asset and type of shock Shocks and positive events Land Nonland (ΔH -Δ W) assets (ΔH -Δ W) Floods 97-01 Illness 97-01 Death Wife (+) 97-01 Dowry and wedding Wife (+) 97-01 Remittances Wife (+) 97-01 Inheritance Husband (+) “Later shocks” 02-06 Illness 02-06 Death Wife (+) 02-06 Dowry and wedding 02-06 Remittances 02-06 Inheritance INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Wife (+) Page 38
  • 38. Familial networks matter, but not in the same way Land Nonland assets Joint Husband Wife Joint Husband Wife Husband‘s Negative brothers Husbands Negative Positive sisters Distance to Positive husband‘s village Wife‘s Negative brothers Wife‘s sisters Distance to Negative Negative wife‘s village INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 39
  • 39. Conclusions--1 • Very interesting evidence on gender-differentiated asset growth over a decade • Asset growth positive for men and women, but faster for men (less unequal when looking at jointly held assets) • Raises questions about control of jointly held assets • Composition of men‘s and women‘s asset portfolios also changing as households diversify into non-agriculture, and as women get more involved in agriculture (possibly owing to NGO interventions) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 40
  • 40. Conclusions--2 • Shocks appear to have differential impacts--women‘s assets are negatively affected by illness, men‘s by death, illness, and dowry and wedding expenses • Illness is the shock most frequently reported by households=>implications for asset disposal? • Life-cycle events (dowries, weddings, death) important, how to better prepare for them? • This analysis has also been done for disaggregated assets, indicates that there is a lot of movement in consumer durables and agricultural durables, also livestock and jewelry INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 41
  • 41. Implications--1 • Need to devise social protection strategy to provide insurance against shocks • Health insurance may help protect asset stocks (as well as individual health) • Social safety nets (public works, income transfer programs) may help prevent asset depletion, which would also help protect future livelihoods • What to do with dowries? Good question! • Important to increase incentives to invest in women‘s human capital as well as to increase returns to human capital (e.g. remove barriers to labor market participation) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 42
  • 42. Implications--2 • Need to provide mechanisms for poor to save and build up asset stocks, and to rebuild them after shocks • Need to provide mechanisms to prepare adequately for (anticipated) life-cycle events • Women, in particular, need to be able to build up assets (savings?) that they can control INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 43