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Navigating Economic Challenges Charting a Course for Survival and Prosperity by  John Mehrmann
How did we get here? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A History of Home Values ,[object Object],http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U 2006
United States House Prices ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2006
In the shadow of foreclosure New York Times Sept 7, 2008
The Great Depression Oct 1929 - 1940 ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Stock Market ,[object Object],18 Month Trend
A Global Trend ,[object Object],Dow Jones Germany London Hong Kong Japan
Consumer Tendency Survey ,[object Object]
Unemployment Rate Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4   1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0   2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9   2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7   2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0   2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7   2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4   2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8   2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4   2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9   2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
The Domino Effect ,[object Object],Stock Market Loans Banks / Financial Consumer Confidence Consumer Spending Jobs & Unemployment My Business / My Life Real Estate Many theories about how it all started. Many guesses about when it will end.
The Domino Effect ,[object Object],Consumer Confidence & External Factors Retail Sales Decline Manufacturers Lower Production Less Demand for Material, Price Drops Recycling Impact
Retail Sales Impact ,[object Object],Consumer Confidence & External Factors Retail Sales Decline Retail Dealers And Stores Forward Logistics Freight Carriers Reverse Logistics Freight Carriers Product Return Processing Centers Installation & Field Services Customer Service Sales Administration Credit / Finance Vendors Jobs
Producers adjust to market Consumer Confidence & External Factors Retail Sales Decline Manufacturers Lower Production Microsoft  11% drop in profit cuts 5,000 jobs* Sony Net Loss $1.7 billion cuts 16,000 jobs* Intel Closes factories cuts 5,000 jobs* Nokia 46% drop in earnings* AMD 33% revenue decline* Jones Apparel Group $840 million write downs* * Feb 2009 Headline News Manufacturers in many industries react to challenge GE Profits drop 45% in Q4* Across all industries, manufacturers react responsibly to economic challenges
Global Economy Consumer confidence down. Spending “buying” declines Production decreases due to lower demand Less production means fewer jobs, factories close, GDP down Less production also means less demand for material
Commodity Prices Plummet ,[object Object],[object Object],Consumer Confidence & External Factors Retail Sales Decline Manufacturers Lower Production Less Demand for Material, Price Drops Recycling Impact Copper Aluminum Nickel Tin
Where are you in the product and service supply chain? Where are your clients & partners in the supply chain? What are their challenges? What makes them financially secure?
Now What? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Brave New World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Don’t Fool Yourself ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Your Clients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Executive Level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Empower the Sales Force ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Human Capital ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How can one person cope? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Short & Long Term ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Short Term Improvements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Internal Metrics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Partner or Perish ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TRIAGE & Remote Diagnostics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Route Optimization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Part Prices & Freight Charges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Logistics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Skill Based Scheduling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reporting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Security ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recycling & Sustainability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IT Budgets ,[object Object],[object Object],76% Investing in Cost Cutting and Long Term Goals 24%
IT Driven Results at UPS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reverse Logistics Conference & Expo ,[object Object],[object Object],                                                                       Conference & Expo Feb 3-5, 2009 Las Vegas
John Mehrmann, Vice President, Business Development  - ZSL Inc Speaker - Reverse Logistics Conference & Expo ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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2009 Navigating The Economy

  • 1. Navigating Economic Challenges Charting a Course for Survival and Prosperity by John Mehrmann
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  • 5. In the shadow of foreclosure New York Times Sept 7, 2008
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  • 10. Unemployment Rate Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4   1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0   2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9   2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7   2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0   2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7   2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4   2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8   2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4   2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9   2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
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  • 14. Producers adjust to market Consumer Confidence & External Factors Retail Sales Decline Manufacturers Lower Production Microsoft 11% drop in profit cuts 5,000 jobs* Sony Net Loss $1.7 billion cuts 16,000 jobs* Intel Closes factories cuts 5,000 jobs* Nokia 46% drop in earnings* AMD 33% revenue decline* Jones Apparel Group $840 million write downs* * Feb 2009 Headline News Manufacturers in many industries react to challenge GE Profits drop 45% in Q4* Across all industries, manufacturers react responsibly to economic challenges
  • 15. Global Economy Consumer confidence down. Spending “buying” declines Production decreases due to lower demand Less production means fewer jobs, factories close, GDP down Less production also means less demand for material
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  • 17. Where are you in the product and service supply chain? Where are your clients & partners in the supply chain? What are their challenges? What makes them financially secure?
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Notas del editor

  1. Navigating the Economy, by John Mehrmann. Feb 2009