Strategic Foresight Plaform - Training and Education Modules (TEM) PDF

Digital Village
“Throughout eternity, all that is of like form will come around
again – everything that is the same must always return in its
own everlasting cycle.....”
• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •
Many Economists and Economic Planners have arrived at the
same conclusion - that most organisations have not yet widely
adopted sophisticated Digital Technology – let alone integrated
Horizon Scanning and “Big Data Analytics” into their core
Strategic Planning and Financial Management processes.....

Strategic Foresight Platform –
Training & Education Modules (TEM)
Many of the challenges encountered in managing Strategic
Foresight Programmes result from attempts to integrate the
multiple, divergent Future Narratives from lots of different
stakeholders in the Enterprise – all with different viewpoints,
desired outcomes, goals and objectives. This may be
overcome by developing a shared, common Vision of the
future state of the Digital Enterprise – along with a Roadmap
to help us to plan and realise the achievement of that Vision.
Digital Village - Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

• Marcus Aurelius •
Emperor of Rome
• “Throughout eternity, all
that is of like form will
come around again –
everything that is the same
must always return in its
own everlasting cycle.....”
• “Look back over time, with
past empires that in their
turn rise and fall – through
changing history you may
also see the future.....”
• Marcus Aurelius followed
• Stoic Philosophy •

Stoicism – Motivation for Human Actions
Reason – logic
Human
Actions
chance
reason
obsession
passion
habit
nature
delusion
desire
Human Nature –
(good and evil)
altruism, heroism
curiosity, inquiry,
ignorance, malice
Desire –
need, want
Passion –
love, fixation
Obsession – compulsion Serendipity – randomness, chaos
Ritual, ceremony, repetition
Primal Instinct–
anxiety, fear,
anger, hate
Stochastic
Emotional Deterministic
Reactionary

The Digital Enterprise
The Digital Enterprise
• The Digital Enterprise is all about doing things better today in order to design and
build a better tomorrow - for all of our stakeholders. The Digital Enterprise is driven by
the need for rapid response to changing conditions so that we can create and
maintain a brighter future for all our stakeholders to enjoy. The Digital Enterprise
evolves from analysis, research and development into long-term Forecasting, Strategy
and Planning – ranging in scale from the formulation and shaping of Public-sector
Political, Economic and Social Policies to Private-sector Business Programmes, Work-
streams and Digital Projects for organisational change and business transformation –
enabling us to envision and achieve our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives
• Many of the challenges encountered in managing Digital Enterprise Transformation
Programmes result from attempts to integrate the multiple, divergent Future
Narratives from lots of different stakeholders in the Enterprise – all with different
viewpoints, drivers, concerns, interests and needs. This may be overcome by
developing a shared, common Vision of the future state of the Digital Enterprise –
along with a Roadmap to help us to plan and realise the achievement of that Vision.

The Digital Enterprise Methodology
Evaluate
Foresight
Platform
Performance
Foresight
Platform
Design
Foresight
Platform
Launch
Foresight
Enterprise
Planning
Review
Foresight
Strategy
Foresight
Platform
Growth
Enhance
Foresight
Platform
Foresight
Platform
Maturity
Foresight
Digital
Platform
Early Adopters
Migrate “Data
Consumers”
over to new
Digital Platform
Review
Foresight
Strategy
Foresight
Technology
Innovation
Digital Research and Development
Prototype / Pilot / Proof-of-concept
Benefits Realisation – Rising StarBenefits Realisation - Cash Cow
Foresight
Platform
Lifecycle
PLAN
PREPARE
EXECUTE
REVIEW

The Digital Enterprise Methodology
Foresight Planning Methodology: -
• Understand business and technology environment – Business Outcomes, Goals Objectives and Needs
• Understand business and technology challenges / opportunities – Business Drivers and Requirements
• Gather the evidence to quantify the impact of those opportunities – Business Case
• Quantify the business benefits of resolving the opportunities – Benefits Realisation
• Quantify the changes need to resolve the opportunities – Business Transformation
• Understand Stakeholder Management issues – Communication Strategy
• Understand organisational constraints – Organisational Impact Analysis
• Understand technology constraints – Technology Strategy and Architecture
Foresight Delivery Methodology: -
• Understand success management – Scope, Budget, Resources, Dependencies, Milestones, Timeline
• Understand achievement measures – Critical Success Factors / Key Performance Indicators / ROI
• Produce the outline supporting planning documentation - Business and Technology Roadmaps
• Complete the detailed supporting planning documentation – Programme and Project Plans
• Design the solution options to solve the challenges – Business and Solution Architectures
• Execute the preferred solution implementation – using Lean / Digital delivery techniques
• Report Actual Cost, Progress, Issues, Risks and Changes against Budget / Plan / Forecast
• Lean / Agile Delivery, Implementation and Go-live !

Advisory and Training Objectives - Plan
Digital Foresight Business Transformation
• The Digital Enterprise is all about doing things better today in order to design and build a better
tomorrow – for all of our stakeholders. The Digital Enterprise is driven by rapid response to
changing conditions so that we can create and maintain a brighter future for our stakeholders to
enjoy. The Digital Enterprise evolves from analysis, research and development into long-term
Strategy and Planning – ranging in scale from the formulation and shaping of Public-sector
Political, Economic and Social Policies to Private-sector Business Programmes, Work-streams
and Projects for organisational change and business transformation – enabling us to envision
and achieve all of our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives
Digital Foresight Planning / Preparation Methodology: -
• Understand business and technology environment – Business Outcomes, Goals, Objectives & Needs
• Understand business and technology challenges / opportunities – Business Drivers and Requirements
• Gather the evidence to quantify the impact of those opportunities – Business Case
• Quantify the business benefits of resolving the opportunities – Benefits Realisation
• Quantify the changes need to resolve the opportunities – Business Transformation
• Understand Stakeholder Management issues – Communication Strategy
• Understand organisational constraints – Organisational Impact Analysis
• Understand technology constraints – Technology Strategy and Architecture

Advisory and Training Objectives - Plan
1. Provide and Train the client Strategy and Planning Team with a comprehensive, consistent
and complete Strategic Foresight Framework which focuses on the capability to create and
maintain a useful and detailed Future Perspective and Forward View. This is supported by a
Digital Enterprise Architecture Method in order to design, deliver and support a Digital
Strategic Foresight Platform - which is illustrated and described by Architecture Models, and
documented and defined by a Reference Architecture (both Business and Technology),
Business Process Catalogue, Business Services Library and Technology Services Inventory.
2. Plan, Prepare and Deliver a series of client-focused Disruptive Technology Strategy
Discovery Workshops in order to gather and analyse high-level Business and Technology
Vision, Mission and Strategy Statements – which can be further decomposed and elaborated
into Strategy Themes, Outcomes, Goals, Objectives and Strategic (high-level) Functional
Requirement Groups. In parallel, also Plan, Prepare and Deliver a further series of Digital
Technology Innovation Workshops which catalogues and defines the high-level functional
and non-functional requirements (NFR’s) for the Digital Strategic Foresight Platform – thus
articulates the outline architecture of the Digital Technology Stack.
3. Mentor, advise and support the Strategy and Planning Team to finalise and agree the
Business Transformation Programme and Project Plans and Digital Platform Solution
Architecture, in order to ensure that the future Strategic Foresight development tools and
Digital Platform software architecture framework delivers industry-leading business agility /
competitiveness and technology flexibility / effectiveness.

Advisory and Training Objectives - Prepare
6. Act as the Digital Architecture Design Authority in order to guide, influence and mentor
the Digital Product Portfolio Team as they deliver the strategic architecture through agile
development improve maintenance capability and efficiency - responsible for the Digital
Platform cooperative resource information collection, analysis, transformation.
4. Train, advise and support the Strategy and Planning Team to design the Digital
Architecture and Technology R&D Pilot Project / Proof-of-Concept (PoC) through all
of the stages of prototype design, development, testing, verification and validation and
plan the phases of implementation for the dominant architecture prototype with the delivery
of Golden Standard artefacts into the Digital Product Portfolio – ensuring that future Digital
Development Tools / Digital Framework and Strategic Foresight Architectures deliver
industry-leading business agility / competitiveness and technology flexibility / impact.
5. Mentor, advise and support the Strategy and Planning Team to build and test the Digital
Architecture and Technology R&D Pilot Project / Proof-of-Concept (PoC). Establish a
Lean and Agile Strategic Foresight Epics and Stories Catalogue - that is both flexible and
adaptive to radical technology change and platform replacement across all of the
Technology Domains – along with a detailed and complete Technology Mapping to the
client evaluation stack / strategic Digital Technology Platform Components (Social Media
/User Content Analysis, Big Data Analytics, Mobile Platforms, Geospatial Data Science)

Advisory and Training Objectives - Prepare
7. Responsible for all Strategy and Planning Team group activities – team building, training,
development, mentoring, cooperative resource information collection, analysis and
transformation – through to planning and organising Executive Briefings, Technology
Forums, Special Interest Groups, Workshops, Seminars and Conferences – including
selecting the speakers / representative / delegates to attend regional, national and
international Strategic Foresight and Lean / Agile Digital Technology conferences.
8. Train the delivery team in Digital Technology Platform Architecture Model envisioning,
design, development and maintenance - from architecture vision to agile implementation –
including CASE Tool architecture design and the Standard Digital Retail Reference Model.
9. Train and develop the Strategy and Planning Team in Digital Technology Platform
Architecture and Components –so as to be able to design, development and
maintenance, from lean architecture vision to agile implementation in a collaborative
communication and benefits management strategy in order to drive out / resolve Strategic
Foresight, Digital Strategy, Architecture and Design problems, issues or threats – leading
team education and training, coaching, mentoring and development.

Advisory and Training Objectives - Execute
Digital Foresight Solution Delivery: -
• Many of the challenges encountered in managing Digital Enterprise Programmes result from
attempts to integrate the multiple, divergent Future Narratives gathered from lots of different
stakeholders in the Enterprise – all with different viewpoints, drivers, concerns, interests and
needs. This may be overcome by developing a shared, collaborative, common Business and
Architecture Vision describing the future state of the Digital Retail Enterprise – along with a
Business and Architecture Roadmap to help plan and realise the achievement of that Vision.
Digital Foresight Delivery Methodology: -
• Understand success management – Scope, Budget, Resources, Dependencies, Milestones, Timeline
• Understand achievement measures – Critical Success Factors / Key Performance Indicators / ROI
• Produce the outline supporting planning documentation - Business and Technology Roadmaps
• Complete the detailed supporting planning documentation – Programme and Project Plans
• Design the solution options to solve the challenges – Business and Solution Architectures
• Execute the preferred solution implementation – using Lean / Digital delivery techniques
• Report Actual Costs Progress, Issues, Risks and Changes against Budget / Plan / Forecast
• Lean / Agile Delivery, Implementation and Go-live !

Advisory and Training Objectives - Execute
10. Deliver an industry-leading and future-proof Strategic Foresight Digital Enterprise
Architecture (EA) Model based on the client’s requirements for Digital Strategic Foresight
performance, efficiency, impact and quality across Business (people and process) /
Technology (SMACT / 4D) Domains
11. Establish a Lean Retail 2.0 / Perfect Store Digital Business Architecture (BA) to achieve
Digital Transformation via end-to-end Retail 2.0 / Perfect Store Business Processes.
12. Drive out a Digital Strategic Foresight Business Operating Model (BOM) through the
investigation, discovery, analysis and design of a Digital Retail Process and Business
Services Portfolio, consisting of Architecture Model and Description consisting of Strategic
Foresight documents, data stores, scenarios and use cases .
13. Guide the Strategy and Planning Team to create the Digital Strategic Foresight
Solution Architecture (SA) Model – designing a Lean / Agile Strategic Foresight
Software Architecture using Digital Strategic Foresight Epics and Stories from the
strategic architecture prototype - which adapts to radical technology change / platform
replacement across all the Digital Technology Domains - through all of the stages of
design, development, testing, verification and validation and iterative phases of
implementation and the delivery of artefacts into the Digital Portfolio.

Advisory and Training Objectives - Review
14. Deliver comprehensive process change / continuous process improvement capability
across all Strategic Foresight Domains – Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring,
Business Cycles, Patterns and Trends, Economic Modelling and Econometric Analysis,
Monte Carlo Simulation, Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis, Reporting and Analytics.
15. Review Digital Solution Model business performance – Functional Requirements met ?
16. Review Digital Platform technical performance – Non-functional Requirements met by the
Digital Technology Platform Components (e.g. Internet Social Media and User Content
Analysis, Big Data Analytics, Mobile Platforms, 4D Geospatial Data Science) ?
17. Review Digital Strategy outcomes, goals and objectives – Strategic Requirements met ?
18. Plan / Scope next iteration of the Digital Strategy / Architecture / Technology Platform.
Digital Village - Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

Pathway Benefit Business Transformation Use Case
1 Achieve
Strategic
Requirements
Achieve Strategic outcomes, goals and
objectives through delivering a Digital
Business Transformation Programme
Strategy outcomes, goals and objectives achieved: – CSFs /
KPIs / Financial Targets / Value Chain Management achieved
through delivering a Digital Business Transformation Programme
2 Reduce
Establishment
Costs
Reduce Establishment – Fixed Assets
(Buildings, Office and DCT Equipment)
and Staff (Direct and Indirect costs)
Establishment Costs Reduced: – Fixed Assets and Staff costs
reduced by delivering Organisational Change through a Digital
Business Transformation Programme
3 Improve
Business
Operational
Performance
Improve Business Operational
Performance by introducing a Digital
Business Operating Model
Business Operating Model: – Functional Requirements met by
introducing a Digital Business Operating Model – supporting
Organisation Change / Process Improvement Management /
Strategic Vendor Management / Inventory Management
4 Simplify
Organisation
Structure
Improve Business Process Execution
by introducing a Digital Organisation
Structure
Organisation Hierarchy Model: – People Requirements met
by introducing a Digital Business Operating Model – supporting
Organisation Change and Process Improvement Management
5 Simplify
Business
Processes
Improve Business Process Execution
by introducing a Digital Business
Process Hierarchy
Digital Business Process Model: – Process Requirements met
by introducing a Digital Business Operating Model – supporting
Organisation Change and Process Improvement Management
6 Reduce Costs Deliver efficiency, cost-effectiveness
performance, and future-proofing by
deploying a Digital Business Model
Digital Business Model: – Migrating customers, products and
services from a traditional bricks-and-mortar Business Model
(F2F High Street presence and Call Centres / Contact Centres)
to a Digital Business Model will reduce overheads by up to 40%
7 Increase
Revenue
Drive Sales Performance by deploying a
Digital Business Model
Digital Business Model: – Migrating customers, products and
services from a traditional bricks-and-mortar Business Model
(F2F High Street presence and Call Centres / Contact Centres)
to a Digital Business Model increases sales revenue up to 40%
CASE STUDY 1: – Medical AnalyticsDigital Business Transformation - Value Pathways

Pathway Benefit Business / Enterprise Architecture Model Use Case
8 Business
Performance –
Functional
Requirements
Deliver efficiency, cost-effectiveness
deploying a Digital Solution Model and
SMACT/4D Digital Technology Platform
Digital Solution Model: – Migrating customers, products and
services from a traditional Technology Platform (EPOS / Call
Centres / Contact Centres) onto a SMACT/4D Digital Technology
Platform will reduce costs by 40% (annual repeatable benefits).
9 Increase Social
Media and
Internet Traffic
Stakeholders can build increased digital
presence, market share, financial
value, reputational value and good will
through massively increasing Internet
Traffic and Social Media Conversations.
Digital Presence: – Social Media Conversations and Internet
Traffic volume is increased, generating incremental stakeholder
value by yielding Actionable Insights for campaigns, offers and
promotions revenue Analysis of Internet data allows Product
Managers to support marketing strategies and campaigns that
consistently out-perform competitor product / service offerings.
10 Increase Sales
Units / Volume
Implementing SalesForce.com could
increase Sales Volume by an average of
40% in the first year. Mining Actionable
Commercial Insights using AWS EMR
Big Data Analytics may yield a further
increase in Sales Volume by up to 40%.
Internet Traffic Analysis: – SalesForce.com and AWS EMR Big
Data Analytics reduces the cost to process Sales Data, yielding
increased data processing rates to support marketing decisions.
Analysis of this information allows Digital Marketing Managers to
promote sales and marketing strategies that consistently achieve
market-leading retail outcomes and financial results / outcomes.
11 Increase Sales
Revenue and
Contribution
Drive increased cost-effectiveness,
efficiency, sales performance, and
Market Presence from the Digital
Business Model and Technology Stack
Digital Business Architecture – Lean Scenarios / Use Cases
and Agile Epics / Stories are delivered via the Digital Technology
Stack (e.g. Internet Social Media and User Content Analysis, Big
Data Analytics, Mobile Platforms, 4D Geospatial Data Science)
12 Increase EBIT
Profitability –
enhance ROI
Ensure efficiency, accuracy and cost-
effectiveness of Market and Financial
Analysis – both routine / ad-hoc tasks.
Financial / Market Data Analysis: AWS EMR Cloud Big Data
Analytics reduces the cost to store Customer, Market, Financial
Transactional Data, allowing longer retention of data to support
offers / promotions and campaign management / analysis upsell /
cross-sell campaigns and rise in Market Sentiment, Good Will,
Reputational Value and Stock Market Valuation scenarios
CASE STUDY 1: – Medical AnalyticsDigital Business / Enterprise Model - Value Pathways

Pathway Benefit “SMACT/4D Digital Technology Stack” Use Case
13 Real-time Data
Streaming and
Monitoring
Stakeholders get the most timely and
appropriate alarms and alerts of any
emerging disruptive market, technology,
political, social and economic events.
Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring: Global Internet
Content, Social Intelligence, News Feeds and Market Data are
mined as sources for early warning of disruptive Weak Signals
predicating possible future Wild Card and Black Swan events.
14 Predictive
Analytics
Stakeholders can build financial value
by taking an active role in self-service
management of their own Enterprise
Risk Management, Market Sentiment /
Price Curve Forecast Data and Models.
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis : - Social Intelligence
and Market Data is mined for early warning of emerging trends
and Actionable Insights in Market Sentiment / Price Movement.
Monte Carlo Simulation generates Business Scenario clusters /
Bayesian Analysis of the probability of each scenario occurring.
15 Technical
(Quantitative)
Analysis
Financial Technology capabilities and
resources matched to the nature and
complexity of the Analytics assignment
– the evaluation and selection of those
future options that provide the best
possible fit with target future outcomes.
Financial Portfolio Management: - Buy-Hold-Sell decisions -
Big Data reduces the cost to analyse Market Data, allowing
faster processing of data to support investment decisions and
model financial outcomes. Analysis of this data allows Portfolio
Managers to support appraisal practices and investment fund
strategies that consistently out-perform their Financial Markets.
16 Financial
Analysis and
Economic
Modelling
Ensure efficiency, accuracy and cost-
effectiveness of Economic Modelling
Econometric Analysis and Financial
Planning tasks.
Historical Market Data Analysis: Business Cycles, Patterns
and Trends - Big Data reduces the cost to store Market Data,
allowing longer retention of data to support investment decisions
and model financial outcomes. Analysis of this data allows Fund
Managers to promote appraisal practices and investment
strategies that consistently achieve market-leading results.
17 SMACT/4D
Digital
Technology
Platform
Deliver efficiency, cost-effectiveness
investing in a SMACT/4D Digital
Technology Architecture and Platform
Analytics Platform – Functional / Non-functional Requirements
delivered via the Digital Technology Platform Components (e.g.
Internet Content, Social Media and User Content Analysis, Big
Data Analytics, Mobile Platforms, 4D Geospatial Data Science)
CASE STUDY 1: – Medical AnalyticsSMACT/4D Digital Technology Stack - Value Pathways

Big Data – Processes
The MapReduce technique has spilled over into many other disciplines that process vast
quantities of information including science, industry, and systems management. The Apache
Hadoop Library has become the most popular implementation of MapReduce – with other
framework implementations from Hortonworks, Cloudera, MAPR and Pivotal

Big Data – Process Overview
Big Data
Analytics
Big Data
Management
Big Data
Provisioning
Big Data
Platform
Big Data
Consumption
Data Stream
Data ScientistsData Architects
Data Analysts
Big Data
Administration
Revenue Stream
Data Administrators
Data Managers
Hadoop Platform
Team
Insights

Split-Map-Shuffle-Reduce Process
Big Data
Consumers
Split Map Shuffle Reduce
Key / Value Pairs Actionable InsightsData Provisioning Raw Data

Horizon Scanning
Publish
and
Socialise
Investigate
and
Research
Scan and
Identify
Track and
Monitor
Communicate Discover
Understand Evaluate
Horizon Scanning –
Human Activity
Environment Scanning –
Natural Phenomena
Hadoop *Big Data*
Collect, Load, Stage,
Map and Reduce

Strategic Foresight as
Knowledge Management

Horizon Scanning
• Horizon Scanning is an important technique for establishing a sound knowledge
base for planning and decision-making. Anticipating and preparing for the future –
uncertainty, threats, challenges, opportunities, patterns, trends and extrapolations – is
an essential core component of any organisation's long-term sustainability strategy.
• What is Horizon Scanning ?
Horizon Scanning is defined by the UK Government Office for Science as: -
“the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely
future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins
of current thinking and planning”.
• Horizon Scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent
problems or trends. The government's Chief Scientific Adviser is encouraging
Departments to undertake horizon scanning in a structured and auditable manner.
• Horizon Scanning enables organisations to anticipate and prepare for new risks and
opportunities by looking at trends and information in the medium- to long-term future.
• The government's Horizon Scanning Centre of Excellence, part of the Foresight
Directorate in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, has the role of
supporting Departmental activities and facilitating cross-departmental collaboration.

Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring - Domains
Ill Moments: –
Disease / Pandemics
Horizon
Scanning
Geo-political
Shock Wave
Socio-
Demographic
Shock Wave
Economic
Shock Wave
Technology
Shock Wave
Ecological
Shock Wave
Biomedical
Shock Wave
Environment
Shock Wave
Climate
Shock Wave
Culture Change
Climate Change
Disruptive
Innovation
Economic Events: -
Money Supply /
Commodity Price /
Sovereign Default
Kill Moments: –
War, Terrorism, Revolution
Ecological Events: –
Population Curves / Extinction Events
Human Activity /
Natural Disasters
Horizon
Scanning
Environment
Scanning
Human Activity
Natural Phenomena
Data Science
- Big Data
Analytics
Weak Signal
Processing

Horizon Scanning, Tracking and
Monitoring Processes
• Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring is a systematic search and examination of
global internet content – “BIG DATA” – information which is gathered, processed and
used to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities in the Human
World - allowing for the incorporation of mitigation and exploitation into in policy making
process - as well as improved preparation for contingency planning and disaster response.
• Horizon Scanning is used as an overall term for discovering and analysing the future of
the Human World – Politics, Economics, Sociology, Religion Culture and War –
considering how emerging trends and developments might potentially affect current policy
and practice. This helps policy makers in government to take a longer-term strategic
approach, and makes present policy more resilient to future uncertainty. In developing
policy, Horizon Scanning can help policy makers to develop new insights and to think
about “outside of the box” solutions to human threats – and opportunities.
• In contingency planning and disaster response, Horizon Scanning helps to manage risk
by discovering and planning ahead for the emergence of unlikely, but potentially high
impact Black Swan events. There are a range of Futures Studies philosophical
paradigms, and technological approaches – which are all supported by numerous
methods, tools and techniques for developing and analysing possible, probable and
alternative future scenarios.

Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring - Subjects
Biomedical Shocks –
1. Famine
2. Disease
3. Pandemics
Horizon
Scanning
Geo-political
Shock Wave
Socio-
Demographic
Shock Wave
Economic
Shock Wave
Technology
Shock Wave
Ecological
Shock Wave
Biomedical
Shock Wave
Environment
Shock Wave
Climate
Shock Wave
Human Activity and
Global Massive Change
1. Industrialisation
2. Urbanisation
3. Globalisation
Climate Change –
1. Solar Forcing
2. Oceanic Forcing
3. Atmospheric Forcing
Technology
Innovation Waves –
1. Stone , Bronze
2. Iron, Steam,
3. Nuclear, Digital
Economic Shock Waves –
1. Money Supply
2. Commodity Price
3. Sovereign Debt Default
Geopolitical Shock Waves –
1. Invasion / War
2. Security / Civil Unrest
3. Terrorism / Revolution
Ecological Shocks –
1. Population Curves – Growth / Collapse
2. Extinction-level Events
Environment Shocks –
1. Natural Disasters
2. Global Catastrophes
Horizon
Scanning
Environment
Scanning
Human
Actions
Natural
Phenomena
Big Data
Analytics

Monitoring Processes
• HORIZON SCANNING, MONITORING and TRACKING •
• Data Set Mashing and “Big Data” Global Content Analysis – supports Horizon
Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking processes by taking numerous, apparently un-related
RSS and Data Feeds, along with other Information Streams, capturing unstructured Data
and Information – Numeric Data, Text and Images – loading this structured / unstructured
data into Document and Content Database Management Systems and Very Large Scale
(VLS) Dimension / Fact / Event Database Structures to support both Historic and Future
time-series Data Warehouse for interrogation using Real-time / Predictive Analytics.
• These processes use “Big Data” to construct a Temporal View (4D Geospatial Timeline) –
including Predictive Analytics, Geospatial Analysis, Propensity Modelling and Future
Management.– that search for and identify Weak Signals, which are signs of possible
hidden relationships in the data to discover and interpret previously unknown Random
Events - “Wild Cards” or “Black Swans”. “Weak Signals” are messages originating from
these Random Events which may indicate global transformations unfolding as the future
Temporal View (4D Geospatial Timeline) approaches - in turn predicating possible,
probable and alternative Future Scenarios, Outcomes, Cycles Patterns and Trends. Big
Data Hadoop Clusters support Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking trough
Hadoop *Big Data* Collect, Load, Stage, Map Reduce and Publish process steps.

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
Published
Scenarios
Evaluated
Scenarios
Numerical
Modelling
Discovered
Scenarios
Understand Evaluate
Non-linear Models
Bayesian Analysis
Profile
Analysis
Reporting and
Analytics
SCENARIOS and
USE CASES
Monte Carlo Simulation
Cluster Analysis
Impact
Analysis
Possible,
Probable
& Alternative
Futures
Probable
Scenarios

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
• Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis is the archetypical method for futures studies
because it embodies the central principles of the discipline:
– The future is uncertain - so we must prepare for a wide range of possible, probable
and alternative futures, not just the future that we desire (or hope) will happen.....
– It is vitally important that we think deeply and creatively about the future, else we run
the risk of being surprised, unprepared for, or overcome by events – or all of these.....
• Scenarios contain the stories of these multiple futures - from the Utopian to the Dystopian,
from the preferred to the expected, from the Wild Card to the Black Swan - in forms which
are analytically coherent and imaginatively engaging. A good scenario grabs our attention
and says, ‘‘Take a good look at this future. This could be your future - are you prepared ?’’
• As consultants and organizations have come to recognize the value of scenarios, they
have also latched onto one scenario technique – a very good one in fact – as the default
for all their scenario work. That technique is the Royal Dutch Shell / Global Business
Network (GBN) matrix approach, created by Pierre Wack in the 1970s and popularized by
Schwartz (1991) in the Art of the Long View and Van der Heijden (1996) in Scenarios: The
Art of Strategic Conversations. In fact, Millett (2003, p. 18) calls it the ‘‘gold standard of
corporate scenario generation.’’

Strategic Foresight
• STRATEGIC FORESIGHT •
• Strategic Foresight is a planning-oriented subset of foresight (futurology,
futures studies), the study of the future. Strategy is a high level plan to achieve
one or more outcomes, goals or objectives under unknown, estimated, calculated
or known conditions of system randomness – chaos, uncertainty and disruption.
• Strategic Foresight gives us the ability to create and maintain a high-quality,
coherent and functional forward view, and to utilise Future Insights in order to
gain Competitive Advantage - for example to identify and understand emerging
opportunities and threats, to manage risk, to inform planning and forecasting and
to shape strategy development. Strategic Foresight is a fusion of Foresight
techniques with Strategy Analysis methods – and so is of great value in
detecting adverse conditions, threat assessment, guiding policy and strategic
decision-modelling, in identifying and exploring novel opportunities presented by
emerging technologies, in evaluating new markets, products and services and in
driving transformation and change.

Strategy and Foresight Process
Communicate
Discover
Understand
Evaluate
Scan and Identify
Track and MonitorInvestigate and Research
Publish and Socialise
Desired Outcomes,
Goals and Objectives
Vision and Mission
Strategy / Foresight
Epics and Stories,
Scenarios and Use Cases
Strategy / Foresight
Themes and Categories

Strategic Foresight Development

Disruptive Innovation and Digital Technologies
Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again –
everything that is the same must return again in its own
everlasting cycle.....
• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •

Forecasting.
Planning
and
Strategy
Models
3.
FUTURES
STUDIES
10.
COMPLEX
SYSTEMS
and
CHAOS
THEORY
4.
NARRATIVE
METHODS
11.
DISRUPTIVE
FUTURISM
2.
FORESIGHT
5.
NUMERICAL
METHODS
Stakeholder
Management
Qualitative Techniques
– Scenario Planning
– Risk Management
Human Impact on Global Weather, Climate,
Environment & Ecology Support Systems
Foresight Research and
Development - Prototype
/ Pilot / Proof-of-concept
Quantitative Techniques
– Technical Analysis and
– Monte Carlo Simulation
Business Waves, Cycles, Patterns, Trends –
Economic Modelling and Econometric Analysis
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT –
STUDY INPUTS
STRATEGY
ANALYSIS
PLANNING
DISRUPTION
12.
GLOBAL
MASSIVE
CHANGE
9.
ECONOMIC
MODELLING
8.
SCENARIO
PLANNING
and IMACT
ANALYSIS
7.
WEAK
SIGNALS
and WILD
CARDS
1.
STRATEGY
ANALYSIS
6.
HORIZON
SCANNING.
Strategic Foresight
– Study Definition
Disruptive
Technology
– Platform
Deployment
R&D + Strategy Discovery Workshops
– Tech. Convergence and Innovation
Data Load and Model Trials –
Tuning and History Matching
Horizon Scanning,
Tracking and Monitoring

Strategic Foresight - Methods
Digital Futures
Studies Method
Description Pioneers and Leading
Figures
Creative
Destruction
(Technology
Disruption)
"the process of
creative destruction
is the essence of
capitalism”
Austrian School
Capital Theory –
Disruptive Economic
Change is driven by
Creative Destruction
• Joseph Schumpeter
– “Austrian School”
Political Economist •
Creative Destruction (Technology Disruption)
describes a "process of industrial mutation that
constantly replaces the economic structure from
within, incessantly destroying the old economy,
incessantly creating a new economy in its place.“
'Creative Destruction‘ (Disruption) is a term coined
by Joseph Schumpeter in his Capital Theory work
entitled "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy"
(1942) in which he stated that "the process of
creative destruction is the essence of capitalism”.
'Creative Destruction‘ occurs when the arrival and
adoption of new methods of production effectively kills
off older, established industries. An example of this is
the introduction of personal computers in the 1980's.
This new industry, founded by Microsoft and Intel,
destroyed many mainframe computer companies. In
doing so, technology entrepreneurs created one of
the most important technologies of the last century.
Microsoft and Nokia are today, in their turn, now being
destroyed as personal computers and laptops are
replaced by smart phones and tablets from agile and
innovative companies such as Apple and Samsung.
Joseph Schumpeter – “Austrian
School” Economist – Capital Theory,
the flow of capital from older declining
industries (“cash cows”) into new and
emerging industries (“rising stars”).
Joseph Alois Schumpeter was an
Austro-American economist and
political scientist and a member of the
Austrian (Real) School of Economics.
Joseph Schumpeter – briefly served
as Finance Minister of Austria during
1919. In 1932 he became a visiting
professor at Harvard University
where he remained until the end of
his career. In1942 Schumpeter
famously wrote in "Capitalism,
Socialism and Democracy" : -
"the harsh winds of creative
destruction – which is the essence
of all capitalism - are blown in on
the gales of economic change” ..

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Disruptive Futurism Disruptive Futurism is an ongoing forward analysis of
the impact of novel and emerging factors of Disruptive
Change on the Environment, Politics, Economy, Society,
Industry, Agronomy and Technology, and how Business
and Technology Innovation is driving Disruptive Change.
Thus understanding how current patterns, trends and
extrapolations along with emerging agents and catalysts
of change interact with chaos, disruption and uncertainty
(Random Events) create novel opportunities – as well as
posing clear and present dangers that threaten the very
status quo of the world as we know it today.....
The purpose of the “Disruptive Futurist” role is to provide
future analysis and strategic direction to support those
senior client stakeholders who are charged by their
organisations with thinking about the future. This
involves enabling clients to anticipate, prepare for and
manage the future by helping them to understanding
how the future might unfold - thus realising the
Stakeholder Strategic Vision and Communications /
Benefits Realisation Strategies. This may achieved by
scoping, influencing and shaping client organisational
change and driving technology innovation to enable
rapid business transformation.
Disruptive Futurists
Prof Peter Cochrane, Iain
Pearson, Jonathan Mitchner,
David Brown, Ian Neild – BT
Futures Laboratories

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Disruptive Futurism FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISM –
Disruptive Futurists analyse and interpret the "gales
of creative destruction" that were forecast by Austrian
economist Joseph Schumpeter in the 1940s – which
are blowing so much harder today than ever they were
before. The twin disruptive forces of a rapidly
changing economic environment and technology-
driven innovation are giving birth to novel products and
services, new digital markets and innovative
commercial opportunities – which at the same time
threatens older technologies with destruction and
challenges the very existence of many established
companies operating in older mainstream
industries.....
Disruptive Futurism is a Future Studies Framework
for understanding the dual nature of Schumpeter's
Creative Destruction which is manifested through
Technology Convergence and Innovation, causing
Digital Technology Disruption – now driving Digital
Platform and Service convergence – a process which,
since the year 2000, has severely impacted on the
financial performance of 52% of the Fortune 500
companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange…
Disruptive Futurists
Prof Peter Cochrane, Iain Pearson,
Jonathan Mitchner, David Brown,
Ian Neild – BT Futures Laboratories

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Disruptive
Technology -
Innovation and
Convergence
Novel and Emerging Technology Innovation and
Convergence (Technology Disruption) is simply the
result of combining existing economic resources – Raw
Materials, Labour, Land, Machinery and Capital – in
novel and inventive ways in order to create new and
innovative Products and Services. Understanding the
impact of Technology Disruption is the major factor in
driving Product Innovation. Numerous common and
familiar objects in use today exist only as a result of a
series of fortuitous technology convergence events…..
The strategic value of understanding how Technology
Disruption - and other innovation processes - work
together, is demonstrated in the great wealth that may
be generated from successful product launches, which
are the result of innovative technology development
strategies along with incisive and cutting-edge design.
The corollary of this is to be found in the huge costs
and lost opportunities of the innumerable abandoned
technology innovation strategies, cancelled Research
and Development programmes and failed product
launches. Under-achievement by managers may be
attributed to a lack of understanding of the dynamics,
impact and effects of digital technology disruption…..
Joseph Schumpeter – “Austrian
School” Economist
Steve Jobs – Apple
Bill Gates – Microsoft
Shannon and Moore – Intel Corp.
Sir Clive Sinclair
Sir Alan Sugar – Amstrad

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Futures Studies Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the
science, practice and art of postulating possible,
probable, alternative and preferable futures. Futures
Studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the
field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely
to continue, what is likely to change, and what is a
novel and emerging pattern or trend. In some part,
this discipline seeks a systematic pattern, cycle and
trend analysis – a foreword extrapolation-based
understanding of both past and present events - in
order to determine the probability and impact of
unfolding future events, patterns and trends, and how
they may be altered by chaos introducing, disruption,
randomness and uncertainty into future outcomes.
Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying
yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating
and analysing public, professional and academic
content and publications, beliefs and opinions, views
and strategies, forecasts and predictions - with
respect to shaping tomorrow. This includes analysing
the sources and agents, causes and catalysts, cycles,
patterns and trends of both change and stability - in
an attempt to develop foresight and to map possible,
probable and alternative future outcomes.
Prof. Kies van der Hijden – Said
Business School, University of
Oxford, author of “The Sixth Sense” –
Richard Slaughter, Pero Micic, Peter
Bishop, Andy Hines, Wendy Schultz,
John Smart, Jennifer Gidley, Marie
Conway, Karen Marie Arvidsson,

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Futures Studies PROBABLISTIC FUTURES – RATIONAL FUTURISM –
Rational Futurists believe that the future is, to a large
extent, both unknown and unknowable. Reality is non-
liner – that is, chaotic – and therefore it is impossible to
predict the future because of uncertainty. With chaos
comes the potential for disruption. Possible, Probable
and Alternative Futures emerge from the interaction of
chaos and uncertainty amongst the interplay of current
trends and emerging factors of change – presenting an
inexorable mixture of challenges and opportunities.
Probable future outcomes and events may be
synthesised and implied via an intuitive assimilation and
cognitive filtering of Weak Signals, inexorable trends,
random and chaotic actions and disruptive Wild Card
and Black Swan events. Just as the future remains
uncertain, indeterminate and unpredictable, so it will be
volatile and enigmatic – but it may also be subject to
intervention and synthesis by man.....
Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, John
Smart, Pero Micic, Wendy Schultz

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Foresight Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range
forecasting and strategic planning, horizontal
policymaking and democratic planning, horizon
scanning and futures studies (Aguillar-Milan, Ansoff,
Feather, van der Hijden, Slaughter et all) - but was also
highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation
studies, disruptive futurism, global design, massive
change, science and technology futures, economic,
social and demographic policy, fashion and design - and
the analysis of "future trends“, "critical technologies“
and “cultural evolution“ via the study of "weak signals“,
“strong signals”, "wild cards“ and “Black Swan” events.
Frank Feather, Kies van der Hijden,
Richard Slaughter, Peter Bishop,
Andy Hines, Wendy Schultz, Pero
Micic, Kaat Exterbille, Karen Marie
Arvidsson, Jennifer Gidley, Marie
Conway, Begnt-Arne Vedin, Henrik
Blomgren, Stephen Aguillar-Milan
Long-range
Forecasting
Long-range Forecasting – long-term future timelines
and outlooks are usually over10 years and up to as
many as 50 years (though there are some exceptions to
this, especially in its use in private business). Since
Foresight is an action-oriented discipline (via the action
planning link) it will rarely be applied to perspectives
beyond a few decades out. Where major infrastructure
decisions such as petrology reservoir exploitation,
aircraft design, power station construction, transport
hubs and town master planning decisions are made -
then the planning horizon may well be half a century.
Derek Armshaw

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Strategic Foresight Strategic Foresight techniques are drawn from emerging
Foresight and traditional Strategy Analysis methods - and is
defined as the ability to create and maintain a high-quality,
coherent and functional forward view, and to use actionable
insights arising in ways which are useful to the organisation.
For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy,
shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and
services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with
those of strategic management - Slaughter (1999), p.287.
Kies van der Hijden, Richard
Slaughter, Peter Bishop, Andy
Hines, Wendy Schultz, Pero
Micic, Kaat Exterbille, Karen
Marie Arvidsson, Jennifer
Gidley, Marie Conway, Begnt-
Arne Vedin, Henrik Blomgren,
Stephen Aguillar-Milan
GOAL ANALYSTS DESIGNED and PLANNED VISION of the FUTURE –
GOAL ANALYSTS believe that the future will be governed
by the orchestrated vision, beliefs, goals and objectives of
various influential and well connected Global Leaders,
working with other stakeholders - movers, shakers and
influencers such as the good and the great in Industry,
Economics, Politics and Government, along with other well
integrated and highly coordinated individuals from
Academia, Media and Society in general – and realised
through the plans and actions of global and influential
organizations, institutions and groups to which they belong.
The shape of the future may thus be discerned by Goal
Analysis and interpretation of the policies, behaviours and
actions of such individuals and of the think-tanks and policy
groups which they follow, subscribe to or are members.
Frank Feather – in just 30
years , Frank Feather guided
Deng Xiaoping and the
Chinese Pollitt Bureau in the
transformation of China from a
Communal Agronomy, little
changed since the Han / Chin
Dynastic Feudal periods - into
a world-leading industrial
society where Central Planning
co-exists with Capitalism under
”one country – two systems”.

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Strategic Foresight Possible, Probable and Alternative futures: it is helpful
to examine alternative paths of development, not just
what is currently believed to be most likely or “business
as usual” – but a wide range of Utopian and Dystopian
scenario. Strategic Foresight will often construct
multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on
the way to creating what may be known as positive
visions, success scenarios or aspirational futures.
Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of
the output of a Foresight study, with the decision about
what preferred future to build being left to other
mechanisms (Forecasting, Planning and Strategy).
Kies van der Hijden, Richard
Slaughter, Peter Bishop, Andy
Hines, Pero Micic, Wendy Schultz
Future Envisioning Future Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and
objectives are discovered via the Strategic Foresight
analysis process - determined by design, planning and
management - so that the future becomes realistic and
achievable. Possible futures may comply with our
preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal
future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled.
Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, John
Smart, Pero Micic, Wendy Schultz
Strategic Positivism Strategic Positivism – articulating a single, desired
and preferred vision of the future. The future will
conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an
ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled.
Frank Feather

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Scenario Planning
& Impact Analysis
Game Theory and
Lanchester Theory
The construction and evaluation of possible, probable
and alternative Future Scenarios using Game Theory /
Lanchester Theory with data from Linear / Complex
Systems populating Monte Carlo Simulation Models.
Scenario Panning and Impact Analysis in Enterprise
Risk Management: - in every Opportunity / Threat
Assessment Scenario, a prioritization process ranks
those risks with the greatest potential loss and the
greatest probability of occurring to be handled first -
subsequent risks with lower probability of occurrence
and lower consequential losses are then handled in
descending order. As a foresight concept, Wild Card or
Black Swan events refer to those events which have a
low probability of occurrence - but an inordinately high
impact when they do occur.
Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – along with
Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning – are now key
tools in policy making and strategic planning for both
governments and global commercial enterprises. We
are now living in an uncertain world of increasingly
complex and interwoven global events at a time of
unprecedented accelerating change – driven by novel
and emerging Disruptive Digital Technology Innovation.
Hermann Khan – Monte Carlo
Simulation (numeric models) are
explored via Scenario Planning and
Impact Analysis (narrative text).

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Scenario Planning
& Impact Analysis
Game Theory and
Lanchester Theory
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis have served us
well as a strategic planning tools for the last 25 years
or so - but there are also limitations to this technique in
this period of unprecedented complexity and change.
In support of Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
new risk discovery and evaluation approaches have to
be explored and integrated into our risk management
and strategic planning processes.
Hermann Khan – Monte Carlo
Simulation (numeric models ) are
explained using Scenario Planning
and Impact Analysis (narrative text).
Horizon Scanning,
Tracking and
Monitoring for
Future Events
In order to anticipate a wide range of Future business.
economic, social and political Events – from micro-
economic Market phenomena such as forecasting
Market Sentiment and Price Curve movements, to
large-scale macro-economic Fiscal phenomena – we
can use Weak Signal processing to predict future Wild
Card and Black Swan Events – such as Commodity
Price, Monetary System and Debt Default shocks.
Cycle, Pattern and Trend Analysis methods
combined with Horizon Scanning, Tracking and
Monitoring techniques create Propensity Models for
Future Event Forecasting and Predictive Analytics.
Weak Signals and Wildcards -
Stephen Aguilar-Milan (1968), later
popularised by Ansoff (1990)

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Back-casting and
Back-sight
Back-casting and Back-sight: - “Wild Card” or “Black
Swan” events are ultra-extreme manifestations with a
very low probability of, occurrence - but an inordinately
high impact when they do occur.
In any post-apocalyptic “Black Swan Event” Scenario
Analysis (e.g. the recent Monetary Crisis), we can use
Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to
analyse and review our Risk Management Strategies –
with a view to identifying those Weak Signals which
may have predicated subsequent appearances of
unexpected Wild Card or Black Swan events.
Kaat Exterbille, Marie Conway
Complexity
Paradigm
Related: -
Chaos Theory
Linear Systems
Complex Systems
Adaptive Systems
Simplexity Paradigm
Academic, scientific, social, economic, political and
professional disciplines all have to address the
problem of System Complexity in their fields – the
behaviour of Complex Systems and Chaos Theory.
The Complexity Paradigm is based on the science of
turbulence, strange attractors, emergence and fractals
– modelling complex behaviour using self-organisation
and critical system complexity via non-linear equations
with variable starting conditions , in the rich conceptual
world of Complex Systems and Chaos Theory.
Edward Lorenz, John Henry
Holland, Edgar Morin, Jennifer
Gidley, Karen Marie Arvidsson,

Digital Futures
Studies Method
Figures
Global Massive
Change
Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global
capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and
dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in
which climate, the environment and ecology are dominated
by human population growth and manipulation of nature: –
1. Human impact is now the major factor in climate
change and environmental degradation.
2. Extinction rate is currently greater than in the
Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event
3. Man now moves more rock and earth than do natural
geological processes.
In the past, many complex human societies (Clovis,
Mayan, Easter Island) have failed, died out or just simply
disappeared - often as a result of either climate change or
their own growth-associated impacts on ecological and
environmental support systems. Thus there is a clear
precedent for modern industrial societies - which continue
to grow unchecked in terms of globalisation complexity and
scale, population growth and drift, urbanisation and
environmental impact – societies which are ultimately
unsustainable, and so in turn must also be destined for
sudden and catastrophic instability, failure and collapse.
Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus

Thinking about the Future…..

Thinking about the Future Framework
Professors Peter Bishop and Andy Hines of the
University of Texas Futures Studies School @ the
Houston Clear Lake site have developed a
definitive Strategic Management Framework –
Thinking About the Future

Thinking about the Future…..
Forecasting
and Strategy
Models
Stakeholder
Management
Review Strategic
Foresight Program
Foresight Research and
Development - Prototype
/ Pilot / Proof-of-concept
Benefits Realisation
– Risk Management
Benefits Realisation
– Value Chain Analysis
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT –
DIGITAL
PLATFORM
LIFECYCLE
PLAN
PREPARE
EXECUTE
REVIEW
3.
RESEARCH
10.
ACTION
PLANNING
4.
STRATEGY
DISCOVERY
9.
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT
11.
PLATFORM
DELIVERY
8.
FORECAST
&
STRATEGY
2.
ENGAGE
5.
THREAT
ANALYSIS
12.
REVIEW
7.
VALUE
CHAIN
1.
FRAMING
AND
SCOPING
6.
RISK
Strategic Foresight
– Study Definition
Disruptive
Technology
– Platform
Deployment
R&D + Strategy Discovery Workshops
– Tech. Convergence and Innovation
Data Load and Model Trials –
Tuning and History Matching
13.
CRYSTAL
BALL
REPORT

Thinking about the Future
Professors Peter Bishop and Andy Hines at the University of Texas Futures Studies School at
the Houston Clear Lake site have developed a definitive Strategic Foresight Framework –
Thinking About the Future
1. FRAMING and SCOPING •
• This important first step enables public and private sector organisations to define their
Strategic Foresight Study and supportinhg SMACT/4D Digital Business Transformation
purpose. focus, scope and boundaries – across all of those Political, Legal, Economic,
Cultural, Business and Technology problem / opportunity domains requiring resolution.
• Taking time at the outset of a project, the Strategic Foresight Digital Transformation
Team defines the Digital Study domain, discovers the principle strategy themes,
outcomes, goals and objectives and determines how we might best achieve them. •
• Strategic Foresight Study Definition – Problem / Opportunity Domains: -
– Definition - Focus, Scope, Purpose and Boundaries
– Approach - Who – What – When– Why – Where – How ?
– Justification - Cost, Duration and Resources v. Future Benefits and Cash Flows
– Digital Technology Platform – Disruptive Features and Functions
– Digital Market Value Proposition – Problem / Opportunity Domains
– Customer Experience and Journey – Customer Loyalty and Brand Affinity

2. ENGAGING •
• This second phase is about stakeholder management – developing agendas and
engagement plans for mobilising the Digital Programme and opening stakeholder
communications channels, soliciting collaborative participation and input.
• This may involve staging a wide range of Digital Strategy Programme launch and
SMACT/4D Project kick-off initiatives - organising events for Strategy Discovery,
Communications Channels, Target-setting and Stakeholder engagement planning,
establishing mechanisms for reporting actual achievement against targets – so as
the Strategic Foresight Team engage a wide range of stakeholders, presents a
future-oriented, customer-focussed approach and enables the efficient delivery of
Digital Strategy Study artefacts & benefits in planned / managed work streams. •
• Strategic Foresight Study Mobilisation – Stakeholder Engagement: -
– Communication Strategy
– Benefits Realisation Strategy
– Digital Strategy Study Programme Plan
– Digital Strategy Study Terms of Reference
– Stakeholder, SME and TDA Digital Strategy Study Launch Events
– Digital Technology Platform – Desired Features and Functions Catalogue
– Digital Market Value Proposition – Key Stakeholder Engagement Plan
– Customer Experience and Journey Customer Surveys / Panels / Feedback

3. RESEARCH – Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking •
• Once the Digital Strategic Foresight Team is clear about the Strategic Foresight
engagement boundaries, purpose, problem / opportunity domains and scope of
the SMACT/4D Digital Technology Study - they can begin to scan both internal
and external sources for any relevant Disruptive Digital content – information
describing Digital case studies– or sources indicating Digital transformations,
emerging and developing factors and global catalysts of Disruptive change,
extrapolations, patterns and trends – and Horizon Scanning, Tracking and
Monitoring to search for, seek out and identify any Weak Signals for Disruptive
Digital Technology indicating potential disruptive Wild Card / Black Swan events. •
• Strategic Foresight Investigation – Content Capture: -
– Disruption - Factors and Catalysts of Business and Technology Change
– Digital Market Value Proposition - Extrapolations, Patterns and Trends
– Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems and Infrastructure
– Internal and External Disruptive Digital Technology Content, Information and Data
– Digital Technology Platform – Required Features and Functions Catalogue
– Digital Market Value Proposition - Disruptive Digital Technology Analysis
– Customer Experience and Journey – Digital Proposition and Customer Offer

4. STRATEGY DISCOVERY – Stakeholder Events and Strategy Themes •
• Here we begin to identify and extract useful information from the mass of the
Digital Research Content that we have searched for and collected. Critical
Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value Propositions begin to emerge from
Data Set “mashing”, Data Mining and Analytics against the massed Research
Data – which is all supplemented via the very human process of Cognitive
Filtering and Intuitive Assimilation of selected information - through Discovery
Workshops, Strategy Theme Forums, Digital Value Chain Seminars, SMACT/4D
Special Interest Group Events and one-to-one Key Stakeholder Interviews. •
• Strategic Foresight Discovery – Content Analysis: -
– Research – Global Content Data Set “mashing”, Data Mining and Analytics
– Discovered Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes,
Outcomes, Goals, Objectives and Draft Digital Market Value Proposition
– Stakeholder, SME and TDA Strategy Discovery Events and Communications
– Outline Digital Technology Platform – Features and Functions Analysis
– Outline Digital Market Value Proposition – Outcomes, Goals, Objectives
– Outline Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Customer Profiling /
Streaming / Segmentation / Propensity Modelling / Cost & Revenue Streams

5. STRATEGIC THREAT ANALYSIS and RISK IDENTIFICATION •
• Enterprise Risk Management is the evaluation and management of uncertainty. The
underlying premise of Strategic Risk Management is that every enterprise exists to
provide value for its stakeholders. All entities face digital technology disruption and the
potential for chaos and uncertainty – which introduces the possibility of risk.
• The challenge is to determine how much risk we are able to accept as we strive to grow
sustainable stakeholder value. Uncertainty presents both opportunity and risk with the
possibility of either erosion or enhancement of value. Strategic Foresight enables
stakeholders to deal effectively with uncertainty and associated risk and opportunity -
thus enhancing the capability of the Enterprise to build long-term economic value. •
• Strategic Risk Management – Disruptive Digital Technology Threat Analysis: -
– Weak Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events
– Business and Economic Cycles, Patterns and Trends
– Digital Technology Disruption – analysis of Schumpeter’s “Creative Destruction”
– Digital Business Transformation – Disruptive Factors and Catalysts of Change
– Identified Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Key Performance Indicators,
Strategy Themes, Outcomes, Goals, Objectives, Business Architecture
– Identified Digital Technology Platform – SMACT/4D Features and Functions
– Identified Digital Market Value Proposition – Opportunities / Threats
– Identified Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Strengths / Weaknesses

Strategic Risk Management
• Systemic Risk (external threats)
– Political Risk – Political Science, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight
– Economic Risk – Fiscal Policy, Economic Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting
– Wild Card Events – Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Weak Signals
– Black Swan Events – Future Management – Digital Scenario Planning and
Impact Analysis
• Market Risk (macro-economic threats)
– Equity Risk – Traded Instrument Product Analysis and Financial Management
– Currency Risk – FX Curves and Forecasting
– Commodity Risk – Price Curves and Forecasting
– Interest Rate Risk – Interest Rate Curves and Forecasting
• Trade Risk (micro-economic threats)
– Credit Risk – Debtor Analysis and Management
– Liquidity Risk – Solvency Analysis and Management
– Insurance Risk – Underwriting Due Diligence and Compliance
– Counter-Party Risk – Counter-Party Analysis and Management

Strategic Risk Management
• Operational Risk (internal threats)
– Legal Risk – Contractual Due Diligence and Compliance
– Statutory Risk – Legislative Due Diligence and Compliance
– Regulatory Risk – Regulatory Due Diligence and Compliance
– Competitor Risk – Competitor Analysis, Defection Detection / Churn Management
– Reputational Risk – Internet Content Scanning, Intervention / Threat Management
– Corporate Responsibility – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls
– Digital Communications and Technology Stack Risk
• Stakeholder Risk – Digital Programme Planning and Delivery Management Risk,
Benefits Realisation Strategy and Stakeholder Communications Management Risk
• Business Transformation Risk – Business Strategy and Enterprise Architecture Risk
• Business Continuity Risk – Programme Roadmap / Digital Cut-over Risk
• Process Risk – Digital Business Operating Model Risk
• Security Risk – Security Principles, Policies and Security Architecture Model Risk
• Information Risk – Information Strategy and Data Architecture Risk
• Technology Risk – Technology Strategy and Platform Architecture Risk
• Vendor / 3rd Party Risk – Supply Chain Management / Strategic Vendor Analysis
• Digital Technology Platform – Vendor / Technology Risk
• Digital Market Value Proposition – Opportunities / Threats
• Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Strengths / Weaknesses

6. STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT and THREAT MITIGATION •
• In most organizations, many stakeholders will, if unchallenged, tend to believe that threat
scenarios - as discovered in various SWOT / PEST Analyses - are going to play out
pretty much the same way as they have always done in the past.
• When the Digital Transformation Team probes an organization’s view of the future,
they usually discover an array of untested, unexamined, unexplained and potentially
misleading assumptions – all tending to either maintain the current status quo, or
converging around discrete clusters of small, linear, incremental future changes •
• It is the role of the Digital Transformation Team to challenge the organization’s view of
the future where it tends to either maintain the current status quo, or converge around
discrete clusters of small, linear, incremental future changes – in order to test, validate
and verify the realistic potential impact of the anticipated future conditions •
• Strategic Risk Management – Disruptive Digital Technology Risk Mitigation: -
– Risk Planning, Mitigation and Management
– Threat Analysis, Assessment and Prioritisation
– Detailed / Analysed Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Digital
Market Value Propositions, Detailed / Analysed Digital Customer Experience and Journey
– Detailed Digital Technology Platform – Vendor / Technology Risk and Cost / Benefits
– Detailed Digital Market Value Proposition – Digital Value Chain / Opportunities / Threats
– Detailed / Analysed Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Consumer Strengths
/ Weaknesses / Sales Volume / Margin Analysis / Revenue Contribution / Cash-flow / ROI

Enterprise Risk Management
• Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is a structured approach to managing
uncertainty through foresight, strategy and planning. A risk is related to a specific
threat (or group of related threats) which is managed through a sequence of activities
using various Enterprise resources: -
Risk Research – Risk Identification – Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – Risk
Assessment – Risk Prioritization – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning –
Risk Mitigation
• Risk Management strategies may include: -
– Transferring the risk to another party
– Avoiding the risk
– Reducing the negative effect of the risk
– Accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .
• For any given set of Risk Management Scenarios, a prioritization process ranks
those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurrence
to be handled first – and those risks with a lower probability of occurrence and lower
consequential losses are then handled subsequently in descending order of impact.
In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall
threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss -versus risks with
higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence -can often be misleading.

Enterprise Risk Management
• Scenario Panning and Impact Analysis: - In any Opportunity / Threat Assessment
Scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the
greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - subsequent risks with lower probability
of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order. As a
foresight concept, Wild Card or Black Swan events refer to those events which have a
low probability of occurrence - but an inordinately high impact when they do occur.
– Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning have become key tools in policy making
and strategic planning for many governments and global enterprises. We are now
moving into a period of time impacted by unprecedented and accelerating
transformation by rapidly evolving catalysts and agents of change in a world of
increasingly uncertain, complex and interwoven global events.
– Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis have served us well as a strategic planning
tools for the last 15 years or so - but there are also limitations to this technique in this
period of unprecedented complexity and change. In support of Scenario Planning
and Impact Analysis new approaches have to be explored and integrated into our
risk management and strategic planning processes.
• Back-casting and Back-sight: - “Wild Card” or “Black Swan” events are ultra-extreme
manifestations with a very low probability of, occurrence - but an inordinately high impact
when they do occur. In any post-apocalyptic “Black Swan Event” Scenario Analysis,
we can use Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to analyse and review our
Risk Management Strategies – with a view to identifying those Weak Signals which may
have predicated subsequent appearances of unexpected Wild Card or Black Swan events.

7. DIGITAL VALUE CHAIN MANAGEMENT •
• The prime activity in the Value Chain Management Process is, therefore, is to
challenge the status quo view and provoke the organisation into thinking seriously
about the possibility that future conditions may not continue exactly as they have
always unfolded before - and in fact, future conditions very seldom do not change.
• The Strategic Foresight processes should therefore include searching for and
identifying any potential Weak Signals predicating potential future Wild Card and
Black Swan events – in doing so, revealing previously hidden factors and catalysts
of change – thus exposing a much wider range of challenges, issues, problems,
threats, opportunities and risks than may previously have been considered. •
• Digital Value Chain Management: -
– Digital Value Chain Element Research and Identification
– Digital Value Chain Analysis – who / why / where Business Value is created / destroyed
– Digital Value Chain Modelling - where / when / how Business Value is created / destroyed
– Digital Value Chain Management – Managing the Digital Business Value Chain
– Managed Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes, Outcomes, Goals,
Objectives, Digital Market Value Proposition, Branding, Products and Services
– Managed Digital Technology Platform – Cost / Benefits
– Managed Digital Market Value Proposition – Revenue Streams
– Managed Digital Customer Experience & Journey – Digital Value Chain Management

8. SCENARIO FORECASTING •
• Scenarios are stories about how the future may unfold – and how that future will
impact on the way that we work and do business with our staff, business partners,
customers and suppliers. The Digital Strategy Study considers a broad spectrum
of possible scenarios as the only sure-fire way to develop a Digital Technology
Platform that will securely position the Digital Transformation Programme with a
robust strategic response for every opportunity / threat scenario that may transpire.
• The discovery of multiple scenarios and their associated opportunity / threat impact
assessments – along with the probability of each one materialising – covers a wide
range of possible and probable Opportunity / Threat situations – describing a broad
spectrum, rich variety of POSSIBLE, PROBABLE and ALTERNATIVE FUTURES •
• Scenario Forecasting – Impact Analysis: -
– Possible, Probable, Alternative Future Digital Business Scenarios / Impact Analysis
– Cluster Analysis – Grouped Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes
– Proposed / Preferred Future Business Models / Digital Market Value Propositions,
Branding, Products and Services and Digital Technology Platform Architecture
– Proposed Digital Technology Platform – Component Architecture / Catalogue
– Proposed / Preferred Digital Market Value Proposition – Epics and Stories
– Proposed Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Scenarios and Use Cases

9. DIGITAL STRATEGY VISIONING, FORMULATION AND DEVELOPMENT •
• After Scenario Forecasting has laid out a range of potential Future Digital Business
Scenarios, Strategy and Architecture envisioning comes into play – generating a
pragmatic and useful Forward View of our “preferred” Future Business Environment and
Digital Technology Platform – thus starting to suggest a range of “stretch goals” for
moving us forwards towards our “ideal” Digital Forecasting and Strategy Models –
utilising the Digital Strategic Principles and Policies to drive out the “desired” Vision,
Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives – all cross-referenced / mapped to the
proposed Digital Business Architecture Scenarios and Use Cases and Digital Technology
Platform Epics and Stories, Solution Architecture and Component Catalogue •
• Strategy Visioning, Formulation and Development: -
– Strategic Foresight Principles and Policies, Guidelines and Best Practices
– Business Strategy and Digital Platform Models and desired Vision, Missions, Digital
Strategy Themes, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives
– Forecasting and Strategic Planning Models - Data Load and Model Testing, Data
Verification, Model Validation, Tuning, Synchronisation and History Matching Runs
– Proposed Future Digital Business Models and Market Value Propositions, Digital
Branding, Products and Services
– Planned Digital Technology Platform – Component Architecture / Catalogue
– Planned Digital Market Value Proposition – Epics and Stories
– Planned Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Scenarios / Use Cases

10. PLANNING: the bridge between the VISION and the ACTION – “ACTION LINK” •
• Finally, the Digital Strategy and Business Transformation team migrates and
transforms the desired Vision, Missions, Digital Strategy Themes, Outcomes, Goals
and Objectives into the Strategic Digital Transformation Master Plan, Enterprise
Landscape Models, Strategic Roadmaps and Transition Plans for organisational
readiness, mobilisation and training – maintaining Strategic Foresight mechanisms
(Digital Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking) to preserve our capacity and
capability to respond quickly to fluctuations in internal and external environments •
• Strategy Enablement and Delivery Planning: -
– Digital Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems and Infrastructure
– Digital Economic Modelling and Econometric Analysis Systems and Infrastructure
– Digital Business Models / Value Chain Propositions Systems and Infrastructure
– Strategic Digital Master Plan, Enterprise Landscape Models, Roadmaps and
Transition Plans
– Planned Future (2B) Digital Business Models and Market Value Propositions,
Branding, Products and Services
– Designed Digital Technology Platform – Digital Solution Architecture
– Designed Digital Market Value Proposition – Epics and Stories
– Designed Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Scenarios and Use Cases

11. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT – Digital Platform Delivery •
• This penultimate phase is about communicating results and developing action agendas for
mobilising strategy delivery – through launching Business Programmes that will drive forwards
towards the realisation of Strategic Master Plans and Future Business Models through Digital
Business Transformation, Enterprise Portfolio Management, Technology Refreshment and
Service Management – using Cultural Change, innovative multi-tier and collaborative Business
Operating Models, Emerging Digital Technologies (IoT, Smart Devices, Smart Grid and Cloud
Services) Business Process Re-engineering and Process Outsource - Onshore / Offshore. •
• Strategy Enablement and Delivery Programmes: -
– Launched Digital Customer Experience and Journey, Digital Business Operating Models
and Market Value Propositions, Digital Branding, Products and Services
– Enterprise Portfolio Management - Technology Refreshment • System Management •
– Business Transformation – Organisational Re-structuring • Cultural Change • Business
Process Management • Operating Models • Programme Planning & Control
– DCT Models - Demand / Supply Models • Shared Services.• BPO - Business Process
Outsource and Onsite / Onshore / Nearshore / Offshore Digital Platform Cloud Hosting •
– Emerging Technologies – Social Media • Mobile Computing / Smart Devices • Smart
Grid • Real-time Analytics • Cloud Services • Telemetry / Internet of Things • Geospatial •
– Digital Service Management - Service Information • Service Access • Service Brokering
• Service Provisioning • Service Delivery • Service Quality Management •
– Launched Digital Technology Platform – Solution Architecture / Component Catalogue
– Launched Digital Market Value Proposition – Epics and Stories
– Launched Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Scenarios and Use Cases

12. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT and DIGITAL PLATFORM REVIEW •
• In this final phase, we can now focus on Key Lessons Learned and maintaining the flow
of useful information from the Digital Strategic Foresight mechanisms and infrastructure
into the Strategy and Planning Team – our new “Digital Village” – in order to support an
ongoing lean and agile capability to continually and successfully respond to the volatile
and dynamic internal and external business and technology environment – continuing
Disruptive Futures Studies, Digital Strategy Reviews, Horizon Scanning, Economic
Modelling and Econometric Analysis, long-range Forecasting and Business Planning. •
We can now also prepare for the launch of the next iteration of the Digital Strategy Cycle,
beginning again with re-launching Phase 1 – Digital Strategy Study Framing & Scoping.
• Strategy Review: -
– Revised Digital Strategy Themes, Outcomes, Goals, Objectives and Requirements
– Disruptive Business and Technology Futures Studies and Digital Strategy Reviews
– Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems – Reviewed Models
– Economic Modelling and Econometric Analysis Systems – Reviewed Models
– Business Planning and long-range Economic Forecasting – Reviewed Models
– Reviewed Digital Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services
– Reviewed Digital Technology Platform – Solution / Component Architecture
– Reviewed Digital Market Value Proposition – Epics and Stories
– Reviewed Digital Customer Experience and Journey – Scenarios and Use Cases
Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston

13.The Crystal Ball Report
The Crystal Ball Report is a comprehensive document that aggregates the results from all of
the phases of strategic analysis. The findings from the technical analysis of SWAT, PEST and
5 Forces elements – along with an assessment of Business and Technical (non-functional)
Drivers / Requirements – taking into account your desired outcomes, goals and objectives.
Recommendations for Strategy Implementation – Organisational Change and Business
Transformation – is contained in the Strategic Roadmap are grouped together in The Crystal
Ball Report. SWAT, PEST and 5 Forces elements are highlighted. Stakeholder Groups, roles
and responsibilities are defined, a Strategy Programme Plan is generated and an Architecture
Roadmap is produced and elaborated. The Crystal Ball Report includes a detailed System
Dependency Map – outlining application system and platform candidates for Technology
Refreshment – COTS integration, Application Consolidation, Application Re-hosting in the
Cloud – or complete Application Renovation and Renewal based on new Enterprise Platforms.
The Crystal Ball Report is designed to become the “shared vision” reference point, where all
stakeholders can see how their needs and functions are both addressed and add value to the
overall corporate plan, keeping everyone “in the boat, and rowing in the same direction.”

Monitoring Methods & Techniques
• Are you all at sea over your future.....?

Weak Signals and Wild Cards
Publish
and
Socialise
Investigate
and
Research
Scan and
Identify
Track and
Monitor
Understand Evaluate
Random Event
Strong Signal
Weak
Signal
Wild
Card
Random Events –
Weak Signal / Wild Card
Signal Processing
Signal
Processing

Weak Signals and Wild Cards
• “Wild Card” or "Black Swan" manifestations are extreme and unexpected
events which have a very low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately
high impact when they do happen. Trend-making and Trend-breaking agents
or catalysts of change may predicate, influence or cause wild card events
which are very hard - or even impossible - to anticipate, forecast or predict.
• In any chaotic, fast-evolving and highly complex global environment, as is
currently developing and unfolding across the world today, the possibility of
any such “Wild Card” or "Black Swan" events arising may, nevertheless, be
suspected - or even expected. "Weak Signals" are subliminal indicators or
signs which may be detected amongst the background noise - that in turn
point us towards any "Wild Card” or "Black Swan" random, chaotic, disruptive
and / or catastrophic events which may be on the horizon, or just beyond......
• Weak Signals – refer to Weak Future Signals in Horizon and Environment
Scanning - any unforeseen, sudden and extreme Global-level transformation
or change Future Events in either the military, political, social, economic or
the environmental landscape – some having an inordinately low probability of
occurrence - coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur.

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Strategic Foresight Plaform - Training and Education Modules (TEM) PDF

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