1. Model Thinking Scott E Page

2. Reason # 1: Intelligent Citizen of the World
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3. Reason # 2: Clearer Thinker
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4. Reason # 3: Understand and Use Data
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5. Reason # 4: Decide, Strategize, and Design
5

6. Outline and Structure
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7. Outline
Image: Puzzledcat.blogspot
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8. Outline
Image: Nuke Mayhem Deviant Art
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9. Collective Action Wisdom of Crowds
Tipping Points Markov Processes
Colonel Blotto Spatial Voting
Decision Theory
Lyapunov Models
Linear Models
Learning Models
Economic Growth
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10. Online Course Format
• Videos
– 8-15 minutes
– Questions
• Readings
– Linked on Wiki
• Assignments
• Quizzes
• Discussion Forum
10

11. Section Structure
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12. Section Structure
• The model
– Assumptions, results, applications
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13. Section Structure
• The model
– Assumptions, results, applications
• Technical Details
– Measures, Proofs (Easy, Medium, Hard)
– Practice Problems
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14. Section Structure
• The model
– Assumptions, results, applications
• Technical Details
– Measures, Proofs (Easy, Medium, Hard)
– Practice Problems
• Fertility
14

15. Model Thinking Scott E Page

16. Model Thinking Scott E Page

17. Intelligent Citizen of the World
17

18. George E. P. Box
"essentially, all
models are
wrong, but some
are useful”
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19. The New Lingua Franca
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20. Image: modernmythmuseum

21. Economics

22. Biology

23. Sociology

24. Political Science: Voting

25. Linguistics

26. Law

27. Game Theory

28. Models Are Better Than We Are
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29. 29

31. Models Are Fertile
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33. Models Make Us Humble
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36. Many Model Thinkers Know Best
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38. Model Thinking Scott E Page

39. Model Thinking Scott E Page

40. Clearer Thinker
40

41. Name The Parts
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42. Identify Relationships
ucsb.edu
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43. Work Through Logic
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44. 44

45. Inductively Explore
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46. Understand Class of Outcome
Equilibrium
Cycle
Random
Complex
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47. Understand Class of Outcome
zFacts.com
47

48. Identify Logical Boundaries
Two heads are better than one
Too many cooks spoil the broth
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49. Communicate
49

50. Model Thinking Scott E Page

51. Model Thinking Scott E Page

52. Use and Understand Data
52

53. #1
Understand Patterns

54. #2
Predict Points

55. #3
Produce Bounds

56. #4
Retrodict

57. #5
Predict Other

58. #6
Inform Data Collection

59. #7
Estimate Hidden Parameters

60. #8
Calibrate

61. Model Thinking Scott E Page

62. Model Thinking Scott E Page

63. Decide, Strategize, Design
63

64. #1
Decision Aids

66. The Monty Hall
Problem

67. 1
2
3

68. 1
2

70. 1 1/3
2 1/3
3 1/3

71. 1 1/3
2
2/3
3

72. 1 1/3
2
2/3

73. 1 1/3
2/3
3

74. 1 1/3
2 1/3
0

75. #2
Comparative Statics

77. #3
Counterfactuals

79. #4
Identify and Rank Levers

82. #5
Experimental Design

84. #6
Institutional Design

87. #7
Help Choose Among Policies and Institutions

90. Decide, Strategize, Design
1. Real Time Decision Aids
2. Comparative Statics
3. Counterfactuals
4. Identify and Rank Levers
5. Experimental Design
6. Institutional Design
7. Help Choose Among
Policies and Institutions
90

91. Model Thinking Scott E Page