1. Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Latin America &
Caribbean
Derek Chen
World Bank
January 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

2. Subdued global trade, softer
commodity prices, and
domestic challenges curbed
economic growth in the Latin
America and Caribbean region
in 2013.

3. Economic Growth in 2013
Latin America and the Caribbean Region
Real GDP Growth 2010 - 2013
%
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.5
2012
2013e
2.0
1.0
0.0
2010
2011

4. Economic Growth in 2013
Latin America and the Caribbean Region
Real GDP Growth 2010 - 2013
%
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.5
2012
2013e
2.0
1.0
0.0
2010
2011

5. Economic Growth in 2013
Latin America and the Caribbean Region
Real GDP Growth 2010 - 2013
%
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.5
2012
2013e
2.0
1.0
0.0
2010
2011

6. Economic Growth in 2013
%
4.5
Real GDP Growth
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
South America
Central and North America
Caribbean

7. Economic Growth in 2013
4.5
4.5 %
%
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Sout h A er i ca
m
Sout h A er i ca
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
2012 2013e
C i bbean
ar
C i bbean
ar

8. Economic Growth in 2013
4.5
%
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sout h A er i ca
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
2012
2013e
C i bbean
ar

9. Economic Growth in 2013
4.5
%
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sout h A er i ca
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
2012
2013e
C i bbean
ar

10. Economic Growth in 2013
4.5
%
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sout h A er i ca
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
2012
2013e
C i bbean
ar

11. Economic Growth in 2013
4.5
%
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sout h A er i ca
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
2012
2013e
C i bbean
ar

12. Economic Growth in 2013
4.5
%
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sout h A er i ca
m
C r al and N t h A er i ca
ent
or
m
2012
2013e
C i bbean
ar

13. Slowdown in Exports and Lower
Commodity Prices
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
%
10.0
8.0
7.6
Merchandise Exports Growth
6.0
Current Account Balance
4.1
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-1.7
-2.6
-4.0
Jan-N 2012
ov
Jan-N 2013
ov
2012
2013e

14. Slowdown in Exports and Lower
Commodity Prices
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
%
10.0
8.0
7.6
Merchandise Exports Growth
6.0
Current Account Balance
4.1
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-1.7
-2.6
-4.0
Jan-N 2012
ov
Jan-N 2013
ov
2012
2013e

15. Slowdown in Exports and Lower
Commodity Prices
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
%
10.0
8.0
7.6
Merchandise Exports Growth
6.0
Current Account Balance
4.1
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-1.7
-2.6
-4.0
Jan-N 2012
ov
Jan-N 2013
ov
2012
2013e

16. Slowdown in Exports and Lower
Commodity Prices
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
%
10.0
8.0
7.6
Merchandise Exports Growth
6.0
Current Account Balance
4.1
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-1.7
-
-4.0
Jan-N 2012
ov
Jan-N 2013
ov
2012
2013e
2.6

17. Slowdown in Exports and Lower
Commodity Prices
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
%
10.0
8.0
7.6
Merchandise Exports Growth
6.0
Current Account Balance
4.1
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-1.7
-2.6
-4.0
Jan-N 2012
ov
Jan-N 2013
ov
2012
2013e

18. Growth Outlook
Latin America and the Caribbean
Projected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016)
%
4.5
2014
2016
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.0
2015
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Latin America and the Caribbean South America
Developing Central and North America Caribbean

19. Growth Outlook
Latin America and the Caribbean
Projected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016)
%
4.5
2014
2016
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.0
2015
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Latin America and the Caribbean South America
Developing Central and North America Caribbean

20. Growth Outlook
Latin America and the Caribbean
Projected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016)
%
4.5
2014
2016
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.0
2015
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Latin America and the Caribbean South America
Developing Central and North America Caribbean

21. Pick up in Exports
%
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth (2012 - 2016)
LAC
7.0
Central America
Caribbean
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.0
4.8
5.0
3.0
5.4
4.6
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.7
5.9
3.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.0
0.0
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f

22. Pick up in Exports
%
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth (2012 - 2016)
LAC
7.0
Central America
Caribbean
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.0
4.8
5.0
3.0
5.4
4.6
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.7
5.9
3.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.0
0.0
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f

23. Pick up in Exports
%
Latin America and the Caribbean
Exports Growth (2012 - 2016)
LAC
7.0
Central America
Caribbean
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.0
4.8
5.0
3.0
5.4
4.6
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.7
5.9
3.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.0
0.0
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f

24. Decline in Net Capital Flows
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f
$US bn
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
Capital Inflows
312.1
296.2
-5.1
285.3
-3.7
303.8
6.5
313.8
3.3
Private inflows, net
300.3
289.9
-3.5
277.8
-4.2
294.5
6.0
308.4
4.7
Official inflows, net
11.8
6.3
-46.6
7.5
19.0
9.3
24.0
5.4
-41.9

25. Decline in Net Capital Flows
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f
$US bn
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
Capital Inflows
312.1
296.2
-5.1
285.3
-3.7
303.8
6.5
313.8
3.3
Private inflows, net
300.3
289.9
-3.5
277.8
-4.2
294.5
6.0
308.4
4.7
Official inflows, net
11.8
6.3
-46.6
7.5
19.0
9.3
24.0
5.4
-41.9

26. Decline in Net Capital Flows
2012
2013e
2014f
2015f
2016f
$US bn
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
$US bn
% change
Capital Inflows
312.1
296.2
-5.1
285.3
-3.7
303.8
6.5
313.8
3.3
Private inflows, net
300.3
289.9
-3.5
277.8
-4.2
294.5
6.0
308.4
4.7
Official inflows, net
11.8
6.3
-46.6
7.5
19.0
9.3
24.0
5.4
-41.9

27. Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014
Derek Chen
World Bank
January 2014
Latin America &
Caribbean
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook