Alejandro Werner - Latin America and the Caribbean O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE), da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), realizou, no dia 19 de setembro de 2014, o seminário internacional A América Latina e as Novas Condições Econômicas Mundiais. O evento abordou a questão das perspectivas latinoamericanas diante das mudanças impostas, entre outros fatores, pela desaceleração da China e pela gradual normalização da política monetária dos EUA. O encontro foi organizado em três painéis, que incluiram desde estudos de casos nacionais — Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México — a apresentações mais abrangentes da economia da região como um todo ou parte dela. Confira as fotos do evento e mais informações no site do FGV/IBRE: http://bit.ly/YdyhyL

1. América Latina
Latin America and the Caribbean:
Lower Growth, Rising Challenges
Alejandro Werner | 2014
A AMÉRICA LATINA
E AS NOVAS CONDIÇÕES
ECONÔMICAS MUNDIAIS
seminário

2. Latin America and the Caribbean:
Lower Growth, Rising Challenges
Alejandro Werner
Director, Western Hemisphere Department
September 19, 2014

3. The global recovery remains relatively subdued
Selected Projections for Real GDP Growth
(Percent)
2012201320142015World3.53.23.44.0Advanced Economies1.41.31.82.4Euro Area-0.5-0.41.11.6United States2.81.91.73.0Japan1.41.51.61.1Emerging Market and Developing Economies5.14.74.65.2Asia6.76.66.46.7Europe1.42.82.82.9Latin America and the Caribbean2.92.62.02.6Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update.

4. U.S. growth is expected to remain solid, after a temporary setback in Q1
2014Q2 rebound after temporary setback in Q1
Signs of firming recovery continue to accumulate
U.S. economy projected to grow at 3+ percent in 2014H2
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
Government consumption and investment
Personal consumption expenditure
Net exports
Change in private inventories
Non-residential investment
Residential investment
Real GDP growth
USA: Contributions to GDP Growth
(Percent change from previous quarter)

5. Investment and housing are key drivers of the economic rebound in the United States
800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
4.500
4.700
4.900
5.100
5.300
5.500
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Housing Starts (RHS)
Total Existing Home Sales (LHS)
Housing Activity
(SAAR, thousand units)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Business Investment (LHS)
Duke CFO Survey: Expected Capital Spending (12 mo.
ahead, LHS)
Philly Fed Survey: Expected Capital Spending (6 mo.
ahead, RHS)
Leading Indicators of Capital Spending
(Percent change, year ago)

6. Labor market slack has declined, but remains sizeable, keeping wage pressures in check
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Part-time for economic reasons
Marginally attached
Long-term unemployed
Short-term unemployed
Labor Market Slack: Components of U-6 Unemployment Rate
(Percent of labor force)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Employment Cost Index
Average hourly earnings
Compensation per hour (6-quarter moving average)
Nominal Wages (Percent, year-on-year)

7. Recent euro area activity data have disappointed, while inflation has continued to grind lower…
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
jan/12
abr/12
jul/12
out/12
jan/13
abr/13
jul/13
out/13
jan/14
abr/14
jul/14
Inflation
2-year expectations
5-year expectations
Inflation and Inflation Expectations
(Percent)
Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Economic Surprise Index
Manufacturing PMI (right scale)
Economic Surprise Index and PMI
(Index)
Source: Bloomberg.

8. … as financial fragmentation and
geopolitical tensions weigh on the recovery
Source: ECB SAFE Survey.
Gas Energy Imports Exports Inward
FDI
Outward
FDI
Bank
Claims
FIN
AUT
GRC
LUX
ITA
DEU
NLD
BEL
CYP
CHE
IRL
SWE
FRA
Dimensions of Exposure to Russia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
jan/05
set/05
mai/06
jan/07
set/07
mai/08
jan/09
set/09
mai/10
jan/11
set/11
mai/12
jan/13
set/13
mai/14
Core
Stressed Countries
ECB Policy Rate
Euro Area Corporate Lending Rates
(Loans less than 1 million euro, Percent)
Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.

9. In China, growth appears to have stabilized but the massive post-2008 credit boom casts a shadow…
GDP growth recovered in Q2 and is likely to achieve the full-year target...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q4
Year-on-year
Staff estimates,
Q/Q SAAR
Official, Q/Q SAAR
Real GDP Growth (Percent)
Sources: CEIC; and IMF staff calculations.
… but financial sector risks related to past credit growth are significant.
Stock of Total Social Financing¹
(Percent of GDP)
109
146
15
55
5
10
129
212
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003
2006
2009
2012
Non-fin enterprise equity and other
Entrustred loans, trust loans, bank acceptance, net
corporate bond financing
Bank loans
2008Q4
2014Q2
2014Q2
Sources: CEIC; and IMF staff calculations. 1 In percent of 4Q rolling sum of quarterly GDP.

10. … while weakness in the real estate sector remains a key risk
The slowdown in real estate has been a drag on activity.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
dez/06
mar/08
jun/09
set/10
dez/11
mar/13
jun/14
Investment growth (%, year-on-year; RHS)
Price
Floor space sold
Residential Housing
(Dec. 2006 = 100, SA, 3mma)
Sources: CEIC; and IMF staff calculations.
Property prices are overvalued.
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14Q1
Beijing
Shanghai
Tianjin²
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Residential Property Price:1 Deviation from Benchmark
(Percent)
Sources: CEIC; WIND Info; Ahuja et al. (2010); and IMF staff calculations.
1 Secondhand residential housing price.
2 2014:Q1 price for Tianjin based on January-February average.

11. Selected Projections for Real GDP Growth
(Percent)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Global
Financial
Crisis
Current
Slowdown
EM Slowdown
(Share of EM countries with real GDP growth
below the 2003-07 average, percent)
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and staff calculations.
The growth momentum in most emerging
economies has weakened
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brazil 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.5 1.3 2.0
China 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1
India 10.3 6.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 6.4
Russia 4.5 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.2 1.0
South Africa 3.1 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.7 2.7
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update.

12. Latin America and the Caribbean, in particular, is facing a subdued outlook for growth…
Latin America and the Caribbean: Real GDP Growth (Percent)
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
Avg. 1980-89=2.1
Avg. 1990-2002=2.6
Avg. 2003-12=4.1
Avg. 2013-19=2.9

13. …partly reflecting reduced momentum in global commodity markets, amid China’s slowdown…
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
Commodity Exporters
Non-commodity Exporters
1990-2002
2003-2013
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ PPP-weighted average of all Latin American countries.
Latin America: Real GDP Growth (Percent, year-on-year)
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Commodity Exporters¹
China
Real GDP Growth
(Percent, year-on-year)
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
¹ PPP-weighted average of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.

14. … following a period of extraordinary income windfalls for the region’s commodity exporters…
Latin America’s income windfall in the last decade was several times larger than historical precedents, and comparable only to the MENA oil exporters
Emerging Latin America and Selected Regions: Income Windfall during Terms-of-trade booms, 1970-2012 1
(Share of annual GDP)
1975
PER
ECU
1980
2000
NOR
AUS
CAN
EM Latin America
2000
RUS
UKR
BEL
2000
IDN
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
2000
SAU
KUW
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
2,4
2,8
3,2
1970
1985
1990
1995
2000
VEN
BOL
CHL
ARG
PER
PAR
COL
ECU
BRA
PAR
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; and Adler & Magud (2013).
¹ Cumulative percentage change in terms of trade (of goods and services) from start to peak of each identified episode (that meet the criteria of at least 15 percent cumulative and 3 percent average increase). Episodes are grouped in 5-year window s according to the date of their first year. Dotted lines indicate group averages.
EM Europe
AE
MENA Oil exporters
EM Asia
Bars: cumulative income windfall
Dots: Annual average (right scale)

15. LA Commodity Exporters: Real GDP Growth by Sector, 2003-13¹
(Percent)
Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
¹ Simple average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
… which supported activity throughout the whole economy, pushing up real wages...
Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
1 Brazil: real salaries in manufacturing; Chile: real hourly compensation; Colombia: real wage; Mexico: real hourly earnings in manufacturing; Uruguay: real salaries.
2 Measured as output per employed person.
Real Wage and Productivity Growth, 2008-13
(Year-on-year percent change, simple average)
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Uruguay
Real wage¹
Productivity²
0
25
50
75
100
125
Mining and Oil
Agriculture and Livestock
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, and water
Services
Construction

16. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
Ratio of Primary Government Expenditure to Potential GDP, 2003-13
Private Sector Credit
(Percent of GDP)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ecuador
Argentina
Venezuela
Bolivia
Uruguay
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Mexico
Brazil
Costa Rica
Panama
El Salvador
Colombia
Peru
Chile
Honduras
Guatemala
Latin America
Ratio in 2003
Change in ratio through 2013
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; IMF, International Financial Statistics; and IMF staff calculations.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Chile
Brazil
Paraguay
Colombia
Peru
Venezuela
Ecuador
Uruguay
Argentina
2003
2013
…and boosting consumption amid a sharp increase in private sector credit and government expenditures

17. The terms-of-trade boom supported a robust export growth…
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
volume
value2/
Sources: WEO and IMF staff calculations.
¹ Simple average of Latin American countries.
² Total exports in US dollars deflated by the US producer price index .
Latin America: Total Exports
(Index, 2003=100, simple average1)

18. … while also benefitted investment
LA Commodity Exporters: Investment and Terms of Trade¹
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
¹ PPP-weighted average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Investment (percent of GDP, right scale)
Terms of trade (index: 2003=100)
Selected LA: Investment
(Percent of GDP)
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
¹ Simple average.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Peru
Colombia
Chile
Mexico
Uruguay
Brazil
Venezuela
Argentina
Avg. 2002-04¹
Avg. 2010-12¹

19. Growth expectations have been revised downward, notably for investment and exports…
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and staff calculations.
¹ Ratio of GDP levels between the July 2014 Update and September 2011 WEO projections. A value of 100 indicates no difference between the two projections; values below 100 indicate downward revisions.
² Numbers refer to Latin America only, due to data availability constraints for several Caribbean economies.
LAC: July 2014 WEO Path for GDP and Components Relative to Sep. 2011 WEO Projections¹
(Percent)
80
85
90
95
100
105
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
GDP
Fixed investment
Private consumption
Public consumption
Exports²
LA6: Real Investment Growth¹
(Percent)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004-08
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
¹ Simple average of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.

20. …yet economic slack remains fairly limited, judging from labor market data, inflation…
Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
1 Brazil latest data refer to April 2014.
2 Includes unemployed workers that sought employment within the last 12 months.
LA6: Unemployment Rate
(Percent, seasonally adjusted)
LA6: Headline Less Inflation Target
(12-month percent change)
Sources: Haver Analytics; Bloomberg; national authorities; and IMF staff calculations.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Brazil¹
Chile
Colombia²
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Range since 2003
Jul. 2014
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Brazil
Mexico
Uruguay
Avg: CHL, COL, PER
2010
2011
2013
2012
Aug-14

21. LAC: External Current Account and Terms of Trade
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations.
80
90
100
110
120
130
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Current account balance (Percent of GDP)
Terms of trade (Index, 2000=100, right hand side)
…and persistent current account deficits, despite still-favorable terms of trade…

22. LAC: Fiscal Indicators, 2003-15
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update.
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Primary Balance (RHS)
Annual Revenue
Primary Expenditure
… all of which argue against large fiscal stimulus today, especially where buffers have eroded in recent years

23. By contrast, there is an urgent need for structural reforms to address supply bottlenecks
0
20
40
60
80
100
Chile
Mexico
Uruguay
Brazil
Colombia
Peru
Chile
Mexico
Uruguay
Peru
Brazil
Colombia
Chile
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Uruguay
Brazil
Learning outcomes
(PISA)
Infrastructure quality
(WEF)
Ease of doing business
(WB)
Sources: OECD, PISA (2012) ; World Bank, Ease of Doing Business database (2013); World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report (2013–14); and IMF staff calculations.
¹ The scale reflects the percentile distribution in all countries for each respective survey; higher scores reflect higher performance; PISA: Program for International Student Assessment; WB: World Bank; WEF: World Economic Forum.
LA6: Structural Indicators¹
(Percentile ranks)

24. A snapshot of country-specific projections
Latin America and the Caribbean: Real GDP Growth
(Percent)
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook July 2014 Update; and IMF staff calculations and projections.
1 Regional aggregates are purchasing-power-parity GDP-weighted averages unless otherwise noted. Current account aggregates are U.S. dollar nominal GDP weighted averages. CPI forecasts exclude Argentina.
2 Simple average for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay.
3 Simple average for Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Venezuela.
4 Simple average. Includes Dominican Republic.
5 Simple average of The Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica, and ECCU member states.
6 Simple average of Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.
2012201320142015Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)¹2.92.62.02.6Financially-integrated LAC24.13.53.33.8Brazil1.02.51.32.0Chile5.54.23.24.1Colombia4.04.34.54.5Mexico4.01.12.43.5Peru6.35.05.55.8Uruguay3.94.22.83.0Other commodity exporters33.15.62.62.4Argentina0.93.0-0.50.0Venezuela5.61.0-0.5-1.0Central America43.83.23.43.4CaribbeanTourism dependent50.10.71.41.9Commodity exporters63.73.23.23.2

25. Downside risks continue to dominate
A more pronounced slowdown in China would further dampen demand for commodities
Faster-than-expected normalization of U.S. monetary policy could prompt a sharp correction in financial markets, after an extended period of low volatility
Risk of a shift toward more populist economic policies in response to the regional slowdown, jeopardizing hard-won macroeconomic stability