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Confidence in Software Cost Estimation Results based on MMRE and PRED

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Confidence in Software Cost Estimation Results based on MMRE and PRED - PROMISE 2008

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Confidence in Software Cost Estimation Results based on MMRE and PRED Presentation for PROMISE 2008 Marcel Korte [email_address] Dan Port University of Hawai'i at Manoa Phone: +1-(808)-956-7494 [email_address]
Table of Contents 13 May 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
The Standard Error ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
Bootstrapping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
The Confidence Intervals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008 Histogram of bootstrapped MMRE and log-transformed MMRE for model (A), NASA93 dataset
Datasets and models used ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
Bootstrapped MMRE intervals 1/2 13 May 2008 COCOMO81 dataset COCOMONASA dataset
Bootstrapped MMRE intervals 2/2 13 May 2008 NASA93 dataset Desharnais dataset (*note only D & F used with FP raw and FP adj)
Accounting for Standard Error 13 May 2008 Model ranking based on MMRE, not accounting for Standard Error. Model ranking based on MMRE, accounting for Standard Error at 95% confidence level. COCOMO81 COCOMONASA NASA93 1. A A A 2. E E E 3. C C C 4. B D B 5. D B D COCOMO81 COCOMONASA NASA93 1. A A A, B, C, D, E 2. C, E E - 3. B, D B, C, D - 4. - - - 5. - - -
How much confidence needed? 13 May 2008 Bootstrapped PRED(.30) intervals with significant differences (32%-confidence level, COCOMONASA dataset)* *This a very crude example. There are more refined approaches that account for simultaneous (ANOVA like) comparisons Bootstrapped PRED(.30) intervals (COCOMONASA dataset)
The Desharnais Problem 13 May 2008 Model ranking not accounting for Standard Error (Desharnais, FP adj) imply contradictory results Model ranking not accounting for Standard Error (Desharnais, FP adj). ,[object Object],MMRE PRED(.25) 1. F D 2. D F MMRE PRED(.25) 1. F, D F, D 2. - -
Conclusions 1/2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
Conclusions 2/2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
Invitation for collaboration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],13 May 2008
Thank you! 13 May 2008 Marcel Korte [email_address] Dan Port University of Hawai'i at Manoa Phone: +1-(808)-956-7494 [email_address]

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Confidence in Software Cost Estimation Results based on MMRE and PRED

  • 1. Confidence in Software Cost Estimation Results based on MMRE and PRED Presentation for PROMISE 2008 Marcel Korte [email_address] Dan Port University of Hawai'i at Manoa Phone: +1-(808)-956-7494 [email_address]
  • 2.
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  • 9. Bootstrapped MMRE intervals 1/2 13 May 2008 COCOMO81 dataset COCOMONASA dataset
  • 10. Bootstrapped MMRE intervals 2/2 13 May 2008 NASA93 dataset Desharnais dataset (*note only D & F used with FP raw and FP adj)
  • 11. Accounting for Standard Error 13 May 2008 Model ranking based on MMRE, not accounting for Standard Error. Model ranking based on MMRE, accounting for Standard Error at 95% confidence level. COCOMO81 COCOMONASA NASA93 1. A A A 2. E E E 3. C C C 4. B D B 5. D B D COCOMO81 COCOMONASA NASA93 1. A A A, B, C, D, E 2. C, E E - 3. B, D B, C, D - 4. - - - 5. - - -
  • 12. How much confidence needed? 13 May 2008 Bootstrapped PRED(.30) intervals with significant differences (32%-confidence level, COCOMONASA dataset)* *This a very crude example. There are more refined approaches that account for simultaneous (ANOVA like) comparisons Bootstrapped PRED(.30) intervals (COCOMONASA dataset)
  • 13.
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  • 17. Thank you! 13 May 2008 Marcel Korte [email_address] Dan Port University of Hawai'i at Manoa Phone: +1-(808)-956-7494 [email_address]