Center for International Development, Harvard University

venezuela growth inflation chavez oil economy crecimiento outlook economia macroeconomic petrleo maduro default 2010 paralelo inflacin forecast importaciones pronsticos petroleo hiperinflacion recuperación colapso panamá poverty inclusive growth escenario scenario liquidez mundo market mercado parallel liquidity world chvez macroeconomia recovery chiapas reconstruccion mercado paralelo revenues exchange rate economa proyecciones hugo entorno latin crisis humanitaria development pib reforma hugo chávez diversification inequality construction boom mexico catástrofe crisis debt productivity corporate emerging finance discount arreglo cambiario permuta black market dlar negro devaluation africa econmico exportaciones deuda socialismo macroeconomy economía perspectivas chávez political geingob challenge strategy prosperity namibia imf fiscal comparative advantage growth diagnostic economic complexity export-led growth jordan place specific individual factors indigenous humanitarian crisis transition hyperinflation collapse reconstruction pdvsa reformas desbalances construct validity internal validity external validity experiment design experiments ate randomized control trials rct sustainable construction panama canal economic growth harvard diagnostico diversificacion sonora hermosillo reestructuracion balanza de pagos transicion growth diagnostics national identity economics saudi arabia collective identity economic development binding constraints sense of us caida desastres econnómicos optimismo pesimismo liderazgo adaptativo fondo monetario internacional estabilización estructural pobreza internacionales instituciones multilaterales nicolas maduro inflacion endeudamiento emergencia deuda externa financieras encovi oil industry oil price oil peak adaptive challenge special economic zones services abnormal returns stock prices market efficiency event study emerging markets market myopia canal logistics skill shortage service sector transportation roadmap diagnostic policy plan complexity programa hugo chavez populism personal narrative democracy 2015 macroeconomics riesgo soberano petróleo over invoice of imports capital flight distress financial repression consumption scarcity boom interna externa soberana sostenibilidad equitable foreign gini chávez economía déficit fiscal. deuda externa inflación empleo workers education non-skilled family skilled drain brain utility remittances model amca risk dilemma economies equity wacc enterprise valuation private cost sovereign journals isi america capm rate markets devaluacion manyara serenguetti zanzibar rau village solutions cultural ngorongoro volunteering volunteer kilimanjaro international tanzania masai cross empresas turbulencia privadas foro tiempos finanzas prcticas dlar macroeconoma 2009 petróleo político america business environment stability