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Geographic Information Systems to assess climate change impacts on crop biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Contents
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object],… It already began
 
 
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Greenhouse gases outbreaks RESULTED IN
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object],[object Object],…  and produce future predictions based on historical measurements…
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object]
 
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Climate change: why? where? When? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Climate change impacts on crop suitability Banana niche modeling (EcoCrop)
Climate change impacts on crop suitability ,[object Object],2020 Cassava Maize 2050 Winners those who adapt quickest and most effectively
Suitability in Cauca (Colombia) ,[object Object],[object Object],Site-specific agriculture is required for different zones (each zone could be a special case) Mid-altitude zones
Climate change impacts on crop suitability ,[object Object],Coffee in Colombia Beans in Africa Rice in Asia
Climate change impacts on crop suitability Tetraploid bananas Triploid bananas
Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases ,[object Object],[object Object],(I-Ching Chen et al, 2009) Evidence of migration due to climatic changes
Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases ,[object Object],[object Object],Climatic likelihood
Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases ,[object Object],Green Mite Whitefly
Impacts on wild plant species
Impacts on wild plant species Arachis Vigna Conservation needs
Impacts on wild plant species –  in-situ  or  ex-situ  conservation? Migration of species Decadal climate change 2000 – 2100, one GCM Trajectories of wild populations to “follow” their climate Two parameters: Max. migration rate Plasticity
Impacts on wild plant species ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Challenges and opportunities ,[object Object],[object Object],Millets Potato Wheat Potential in dry areas Potential in specific altitude zones Low evidence of traits
Challenges and opportunities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THANKS!!! Contact:  [email_address] [email_address]

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Julian R - GIS To Assess The Impact Of Climate Change On Crop Biodiversity - World Congress On Conservation Agriculture, New Delhi (India)

  • 1. Geographic Information Systems to assess climate change impacts on crop biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.  
  • 5.  
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.  
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Climate change impacts on crop suitability Banana niche modeling (EcoCrop)
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Climate change impacts on crop suitability Tetraploid bananas Triploid bananas
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Impacts on wild plant species
  • 22. Impacts on wild plant species Arachis Vigna Conservation needs
  • 23. Impacts on wild plant species – in-situ or ex-situ conservation? Migration of species Decadal climate change 2000 – 2100, one GCM Trajectories of wild populations to “follow” their climate Two parameters: Max. migration rate Plasticity
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. THANKS!!! Contact: [email_address] [email_address]