1. COLOMBIA AND THE REGION
AN STRATEGICAL VIEW
REMARKS BY
ALVARO URIBE VÉLEZ
LIT TLE ROCK, ARKANSAS
NOVEMBER 2 201 1

2. Introduction
 I have been asked to talk about the story behind the Colombian success
during the last nine years, and to exchange some ideas on how political Will
can trigger effective change.
 When I was asked to do that, I felt that this should be the opportunity to
express that what Colombia has experienced is not only my success as
President, nor only the success of my administration.It was and it
should be always remembered as the success of a whole nation
that recovered CONFIDENCE and decided to mobilize in order to
build a better future.
 As President I had the privilege of counting with the support of my fellow
citizens to put in place the concept of a Comunitary State built in the fertile
ground of DEMOCRATIC SECURITY, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE AND
SOCIAL COHESION. This is the story I want to share with you
today

3. 1. Colombia long history of violence
 Colombia’s history has been signed by long periods of
violence: In almost 200 years of independent live, our
nation has only experienced 47 years of relative peace.
 Violence has taken many forms:
 Regional and political organization struggles in the XIX Century.
 Partisan violence from 1900-1958
 Guerrilla confrontation since 1960
 Narco-Terrorism since 1980’s
 Violence has affected the lives of many Colombians:
 My father was killed in a kidnapping attempt. I have suffered in my
own skin the cruelty of terrorism. For that reason I have fought to
liberate my nation from the reign of fear.

4. 2. Violence destroyed hope
 Between 1982 and 2002 violence kept on deteriorating and became the root of
structural problems: lack of investment, unemployment, poverty, brain drain, lack
of hope.
 In 2002 Colombia's was considered by many multilateral organizations, as a nation
in the path of becoming a failed state.
 The numbers made evident that we were experiencing a Confidence Deficit:
 28.837 homicides
 2882 kidnappings
 69 homicides per 100.000 habitants
 1645 terrorist attacks
 350 mayors out of their municipalities
 158 municipalities without police
 Unemployment was close to 16%
 Poverty close to 57%
 Per Capita income US$2300
 FDI: US$2.1 billion
 Investment as % of GDP: 16%
 Guerrillas, Paramilitaries and drug dealers exercised control in many regions

5. 3. Our change agenda
 Colombia needed a change.
 In 2000 I decided to run for President building an agenda by listening to
the people and engaging in permanent dialogue:
 Democratic Workshops
 People coalition
 Independent candidacy
 Primero Colombia
 We built our change agenda with the People:
 Confidence was our cornerstone
 A new concept of State…”The Communitary State”:
• No division between left and right
• No Neoliberalism nor Socialism
• Pure Democratic Center
• A participative State
• An efficient state not a bureaucratic State
 Strong hand and big heart: Mano firme corazón grande
 Democratic Manifesto: 100 Points
 Three Pillars:
• Democratic Security
• Investment with fraternity
• Social Cohesion as the final objective

6. 4. The 3 pillars in Government
Democratic
Security
Security for All
Fight all forms of crime
Security without Martial Law
Security with liberties and
Human Rights
Victims recognition
Investment
with Social
Responsibility
Investor Security (Human,
Legal and Political)
Sound Macroeconomics
Incentives
Access to markets
Competitiveness Factors
(Infrastructure, Connectivity,
Banking,)
Social
Cohesion
Education Revolution
Health with coverage and
quality
Access to credit (Banca de
oportunidades)
Vocational Training
Conditional Cash Transfers

7. 4. The Three Pillars in Government:
Change is possible
The combination of our Policies produced significant results: Lowest violence levels in
two decades, highest levels of social coverage in Colombian History and highest levels
Security Economy
Indicator 2002 2010
Homicides 28838 14000
Kidnappings 2882 228
Homicides per
100K Habitants
69 35
Terrorist
attacks
1645 250
Municipalities
without mayors
presence
350 0
Municipalities
without police
158 0
Indicator 2002 2010
Average
Economic
Growth
2.1% 4.3%
GDP per Capita 2377 5300
Invest % GDP 16.5% 27%
Exports US$11.
000
US$
39.000
FDI US$2.1
00
US$ 7.000
Inflation 6.9% 2.5%
Social
Indicator 2002 2010
Unemployment 16.2% 11.6%
Health Coverage 25.1
million
43.1
million
Pension affiliates 4.5
million
7.1
million
Poverty 53% 37%
Education coverage
(Primary, Hs, University)
97%
57%
24%
100%
79.4%
35.5%
Mobile phone users 4.6
million
lines
41
million
lines
of Exports and FDI in more than 5 decades.

8. 5. Change drivers
Change Drivers
1. 306 Communitarian Councils
• Changed the way in which the government connects with the people. For the
first time Government talks to the people not the armed groups.
• People initially made their claims with anger and after 8 years with hope
2. Weekly Security Councils
• Helped us confront the military forces statistics with the community.
• Great example of trust building
3. 52 Economic dialogues
• Helped discuss economic policy with all the stakeholders
4. Result Driven Administration
• We created the SIGOB a system to monitor how Government fulfils its
objectives
5. Leading by example
• The President was on top of the agenda and involved 24/7
6. Direct Democracy (Sate of opinion)
• The Government always open for people scrutiny
• T.V Questions for the FTA
7. Determination to find solutions
• Less promises but more solutions
8. Communication with the truth
• The case of Governor Gaviria and Minister Echeverry

9. 6. Security as the Heart of Change
Recovering Security
1. Macro Vision and Detailed Follow up:
• Daily commitment to monitor security in every region.
• How citizens had the President Mobile Phone Number
2. Early Victories :
• Road caravans
• Massive kidnappings are over
3. Strategic Force Integration
• All Forces working together.
• Share success
4. National Informant Network
• Citizens became active in denouncing criminals
• Reward Mondays
5. Commander in Chief assumes responsibility
• The Granda Story
• Operation Fenix: Fire the Air Force Commander
• Operation Jaque: The pressure for a humanitarian exchange and the final
outcome
6. Smart Weapons:
• The importance of strategic warfare
7. Extradition:
• The decision to extradite the Paramilitary Kingpins

10. 7. Facing crisis: perseverance to reach change
 Moments of truth:
1. Nogal Bomb: Bogota cries but never surrenders
2. Killing of 11 regional senators: Facing their families
when rejecting humanitarian exchanges.
3. The rescue of Fernando Araujo
4. Meeting Chavez after the Bombardment in Ecuador:
a debate in live T.V
5. The rescue of National University President
6. The story of Emanuel
7. The military agreement with the U.S

11. 8. Historical changes took place
 Leadership, governance based on citizen support and political Will, helped
built significant historical changes in strategic sectors:
 Reform the oil and gas sector:
1. Colombia is close to produce 1 million barrels per day from 250.000 in 2002.
2. Ecopetrol Reform
3. Created the National Hydrocarbon Agency
 Reform the Telecom Sector:
1. Restructure the Colombian Telecommunications Agency
 Reform the Colombian Social Security Agency
 More than 2000 criminals were extradited
 Paramilitary structures were dismantled
 FARC suffered its biggest historical defeats
 Colombia experienced its largest historical FDI flows
 Biggest historical reduction in illicit crops
 More than 10 FTA’s signed and negotiated
 Largest historical health and education coverage
 Largest historical credit expansion
 Largest historical tourism flows to the country

12. 9.Final thoughts
 Colombia between 2002 and 2010 passed from a state in crisis to a state in Progress.
 However some challenges remain
Security
Maintain Macro-Vision and
Micro-Management
Continue dismantling all
terrorist organizations
Continue dismantling drug
cartels apparatus.
Strengthen Citizen Security
agendas with local
authorities
Economic
Face new trends of currency
appreciation
Maintain and increase FDI
flows (Security, incentives
and stability rules)
Fiscal Policy to face new
countercyclical challenges
Increase tax collections
Expand new trade markets
through FTA’s
Social
Cohesion
Fight labor informality and
create quality jobs
Insure education and health
quality
Expand vocational training
coverage
Create Entrepreneurial
Family Transfers program
Political
Judicial reform.
Strengthen Democratic Center
Improve local institutional
capacity
New law implementation (Victims
and land)
Prevent the emergence of populist
movements

13. The Regional Picture

14. 1. Opportunities, challenges and risks
 Commentators and analysts continuously talk about Chinas
transformation and praise its effort for becoming the World second
largest economy and by being able to allow 400 million people
come out from the poverty trap.
 However in our region a silent process of change has also occurred
and today Latin America is an active contributor to the Emerging
Nations Century:





The regional silent evolution

15. 1. Opportunities, challenges and risks
Between 1980 and 2010 we have experienced an outstanding
improvement of our social indicators in what can be called a
social transformation:
 Life expectancy has increased from 65 to 75 years.
 Child mortality has been reduced by 50 per cent.
 Literacy rates are above 94%.
 Mobile phone penetration has increased by 78 per cent.
 Internet access has increased by 33%
 Healthcare coverage has increased by 50 percent.
 And water and sanitation coverage has reached on average 80
per cent in the region.

16. 1. Opportunities, challenges and risks
Latin America is also a land of opportunities
 Latin America is a region with a vast number of natural
resources that will help the World attend great part of the
demand patterns.
 We count with:
 10 percent of the World oil reserves.
 6 percent of the World Gas reserves
 Almost 50 percent of the World cooper reserves.
 50 per cent of the World silver reserves.
 13% of the World iron reserves
 26% of the World fertile land.
 24% of the World beef supply.
 Almost 50% of the World potable water supply.
 Approximately 20 per cent of the World Biodiversity is
concentrated in the Amazon ring.


17. 1. Opportunities, challenges and risks
The SECRET BEHIND Latin American Success
 This change process is a consequence of the principles that a group of countries have adopted as their
policy cornerstone. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Uruguay represent 70 per cent
of the region’s population and 75% of the regional GDP.
 This group of countries have common characteristics that explain their outstanding performance:
1. The strengthening of Liberal Democracy
2. The adoption of an institutional Framework in favor of foreign and national investment.
3. The construction of a sound and sustainable social safety net.
4. The expansion of export markets and the commercial integration with the World (FTA’s)
5. A public administration driven by results.
6. A sound Macroeconomic Administration driven by fiscal and monetary prudence.
7. Better regulatory environment
8. Construction of strategic infrastructure.
9. The consolidation of an innovation agenda leaded by an improvement in education.
10. A well capitalized financial sector and the constant expansion of financial services.
 Today countries like Panama, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Belize, Paraguay, as well as most of the Caribbean States, are following that
line of behavior

18. 1. Opportunities, challenges and risks
Building
Modern
Democracies
(5 parameters)
Security
Freedoms and Private
Initiative
Independent Institutions
Social Cohesion
People Participation
A dynamic
Economic
transformation
Investment Target
Policies
Maintaining Fiscal and
Monetary transformation
Integrate commodity and
knowledge based
economies.
Expand export markets
Create an
Entrepreneurship culture
(Innovation agenda)
Closing Social
Gaps
Improve education
(quality, coverage,
vocational)
Insure Universal
Healthcare
Formal Job creation
Access to Finance
Climate Change,
Environment
and Energy
Sustainability
Expand renewable
sources
Install an energy
efficiency conscience
Improve waste
management
Protect the Amazon Ring
Reduce Co2 Emissions
Challenges

19. 1. Opportunities, challenges and risks
Economic
Risks
More Sovereign Debt
restructuring in Europe
Higher inflation in
Emerging Markets and
exploding bubbles
Real State Bubbles in
China
Rapid Expansion of
commodity Prices
Currency volatility
Geopolitical
Risks
Terrorism
Illicit Trade (Drugs, arms,
counterfeiting, organs,
persons)
Organized Crime (Central
America, Mexico,
Colombia, Brazil, etc)
Lagging Democracies and
fragile States (Venezuela,
Haiti,Bolivia, Cuba)
Nuclear weapons
Environmental
Risks
Earthquakes and
Tsunamis
Flooding
Deforestation and
Biodiversity Loss
Climate Change
Social Risks
Demographic Challenges
Food Security
Massive Migration
Infectious Diseases
Economic Inequality
Risks

20. Peru
Humala Challenges
Maintain
Investment
Confidence
Improve social
expenditure
targeting
Improve
Labor
markets
• Combat
informality
• Improve
productivity
Continue with
International
insertion
• Implement the FTA
with USA
• Pacific Agenda with
Colombia, Chile and
Mexico.

21. Argentina
Fiscal and
Monetary
Credibility
Challenges
Institutional
quality
Capacity to
generate
confidence
Trigger FDI
Solve Public-
Private
Conflicts

22. Security
Human
Insecurity
Legal
Insecurity
Political
insecurity
Individual
Liberties
Property rights
at risk
Limit freedom of
expression
Limit freedom of
press
Independent
institutions
Courts
controlled by
the Executive
Branch.
Independent
institutions are
controlled by the
Executive father
One Party
controls the
Parliament
Citizen
participation
Limited
Controlled
Instruments
vital for political
pressure.
Social
Cohesion
Class
polarization
Fiscal policy is
unsustainable
Venezuela

23. Urban
security
Prevent
economic
overheating
Drug
consumption
Challenges Regional
integration
Cost of money
Infrastructure
Foreign Policy
Brasil

24. Mexico
Reform the Police
Structure
Citizen participation
in the fight against
organized crime
Strengthen
intelligence
The security
challenge
Border affairs
• Drug Consumption
• Assault Weapons

25. Chile
Two situations
Economic Stability
Characteristics
Political Stability
Investor Confidence
Innovation and
entrepreneurship
Quality of live and agenda.
opportunities
Dependant on the
China effect
Aggressive protests
Youth distrust in
Political Parties and in
Government.

26. Ecuador
The political condition
Economic
4.5% Fiscal deficit
Oil price has been the driving
force.
Investors distrust
4.5% inflation
Political
The President has concentrated
more powers
Conflict with congress and with
independent media will deteriorate as the
Government pushes more interventionist
reforms
There is not a clear opposition
figure
Urban security has been
deteriorating

27. Bolivia: new problems arise
Economic
Populism platform loosing
popular support
Fiscal superavit driven by more
tax collections
Economic Growth above 4.6%
driven by Gas price
Inflation close to 9%
Investors distrust with the
exception of foreign governments
corporations
Political
2/3 of Congress controlled by
the President Coalition
Hunting of all opposition
leaders
Confrontation with Santa Cruz
Governor Ruben Costas.
Abstention and no vote drove
the supreme court judges
elections
International
Under the influence of Chavez
Improvement in the dialogue
with the U.S
International Market Distrust

28. One final thought:
The politics of Confidence
 The region requires a DEMOCRATIC CENTER
PLATFORM based on three pillars:
 Democratic Security
 Investment with fraternity
 Social Cohesion
 These were the pillars embraced by Colombia to
make a change and are the pillars to face the
challenges ahead in many countries.
 Without security there is no investment and without
investment there are no resources for a strong social
agenda.

29. www.alvarouribevelez.com