Presentation on coffee and climate change in Colombia from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of CIAT.

1. Cambio climático y café en Colombia
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Anton
Eitzinger, Peter Laderach

2. Contenido
• Acerca de cambio
climatico y los
modelos GCM
• El futuro de Risaralda
• Tres ejemplos de
impactos de cambio
climatico en el café en
diferentes regions
• Lo que se debe hacer

5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases
excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

6. Porque tan seguros que el clima
esta cambiando?

9. Arctic Ice is Melting

10. Caso 2 : Adaptación a un futuro
específico
Hay que saber el futuro... pero ¿cómo?

11. Modelos GCM : “Global Climate
Models”
• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en
ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología, y,
dependiendo de las creencias, algo de astrología
• Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro
• Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases

14. Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?
Variaciones en la temperatura de la superficie de la tierra: de 1000 a 2100

15. Britanicos
Canadienses

18. Trayectorios y riesgos
4.0
3.5
2099 Modeling
time-limit
3.0
Temperature anomaly (ºC)
2.5
2.0 2050 Modeling
time-limit
1.5
2020 Modeling
1.0 time-limit
0.5
1870
Baseline
0.0
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
Precipitation anomaly (mm)
Haiti Cuba Mexico
Central African Republic Venezuela Myanmar Burma
Burundi Japan Vanuatu
China Colombia Costa Rica
Ecuador

19. Datos de CIAT
• 18 modelos para 2050, 9 para 2020
• Diferentes escenarios, A1b, B1, commit
• Downscaled usando metodos estadisticos
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/home.html

21. Colombia y el mundo en
cambio climático
2950 27.5
Colombia
2900 27.0
+8.1% 26.5
+3.1ºC
Precipitación total anual (mm)
2850
Temperatura media anual (ºC)
2800 26.0
2750 25.5
2700 25.0
2650 24.5
2600 24.0 Temperatura media anual (ºC)
Precipitación total anual (mm)
Tendencia temporal
2550 Tendencia temporal
23.5 Intervalo de confianza (95%)
Intervalo de confianza (95%)
2500 23.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Año Año
810 12.0
Mundo
790
+14% 11.0
+4.5ºC
Precipitación total anual (mm)
Temperatura media anual (ºC)
770
10.0
750
730 9.0
710
8.0
690
Temperatura media anual (ºC)
Precipitación total anual (mm)
7.0 Tendencia temporal
670 Tendencia temporal
Intervalo de confianza (95%) Intervalo de confianza (95%)
650 6.0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Año
Año

23. Cambio en
Cambio en Cambio en Incertidumbre
Cambio en meses
Region Departamento Temperatura estacionalidad de entre modelos
Precipitacion consecutivos
media precipitacion (StDev prec)
secos
Amazonas Amazonas 12 2.9 1.4 0 135
Amazonas Caqueta 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193
Amazonas Guania 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271
Amazonas Guaviare 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209
Amazonas Putumayo 117 2.6 0.6 0 170
Andina Antioquia 18 2.1 1.3 0 129
Andina Boyaca 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144
Andina Cundinamarca 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170
Andina Huila 51 2.4 1.0 0 144
Andina Norte de santander 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216
Andina Santander 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158
Andina Tolima 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148
Caribe Atlantico -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135
Caribe Bolivar 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242
Caribe Cesar -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160
Caribe Cordoba -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160
Caribe Guajira -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86
Caribe Magdalena -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153
Caribe Sucre 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207
Eje Cafetero Caldas 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174
Eje Cafetero Quindio 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145
Eje Cafetero Risaralda 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141
Llanos Arauca -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188
Llanos Casanare 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229
Llanos Meta 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180
Llanos Vaupes 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192
Llanos Vichada 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152
Pacifico Choco -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148
Sur Occidente Cauca 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168
Sur Occidente Narino 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126
Sur Occidente Valle del Cauca 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166

24. Que viene para Risaralda?

25. Climate
General climate change description
characteristic
Average Climate Change Trends of Risaralda
The rainfall decreases from 2751.9 millimeters to 2741.06 millimeters
General
Temperatures increase and the average increase is 0.77 ºC
climate
The mean daily temperature range decreases from 9.98 ºC to 9.88 ºC
characteristics
The maximum number of cumulative dry months increases from 0 months to 1 months
The maximum temperature of the year increases from 24.33 ºC to 25.09 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 0.77 ºC
Extreme The minimum temperature of the year increases from 13.36 ºC to 14.14 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 0.74 ºC
conditions The wettest month gets wetter with 349.97 millimeters instead of 338.14 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 7.43 mm
The driest month gets drier with 141.43 millimeters instead of 150.79 millimeters while the driest quarter gets drier by 15.73 mm
Climate
Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and more seasonal in precipitation
Seasonality
The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 0.85%
Variability
Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
between
The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 5.67%
models
Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
400 30 Current precipitation
Future precipitation
Future mean temperature
Current mean temperature
350
Future maximum temperature
25 Current maximum temperature
Future minimum temperature
300 Current minimum temperature
20
Precipitation (mm)
250
Temperature (ºC)
200 15
150
10
100
5
50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 14 GCM models from the 3th (2001)
and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org

26. Climate
General climate change description
characteristic
Average Climate Change Trends of Risaralda
The rainfall increases from 2753.76 millimeters to 2857.4 millimeters
General
Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.21 ºC
climate
The mean daily temperature range increases from 9.91 ºC to 10.46 ºC
characteristics
The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 0 months
The maximum temperature of the year increases from 24.21 ºC to 27.37 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.45 ºC
Extreme The minimum temperature of the year increases from 13.31 ºC to 15.06 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.05 ºC
conditions The wettest month gets wetter with 343.72 millimeters instead of 337.91 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 23.62 mm
The driest month gets wetter with 154.32 millimeters instead of 150.3 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 33.43 mm
Climate
Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation
Seasonality
The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 4.27%
Variability
Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
between
The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 5.09%
models
Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
400 30 Current precipitation
Future precipitation
Future mean temperature
Current mean temperature
350
Future maximum temperature
25 Current maximum temperature
Future minimum temperature
300 Current minimum temperature
20
Precipitation (mm)
250
Temperature (ºC)
200 15
150
10
100
5
50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 14 GCM models from the 3th (2001)
and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org

27. Site-specific monthly coefficient of variation using 18 GCM models (IPCC, 2007) for precipitation and
temperature
12 14
12
10
Precipitation coefficient of variation (%)
Temperature coefficient of variation (%)
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Precipitation Mean temperature Maximum temperature Minimum temperature

28. Climas mueven hacia arriba
Tmedia
Tmedia Tmedia Ppt total Ppt total Cambio
Rango anual
anual anual anual anual ppt total
Altitudinal cambio
actual futuro actual futuro (%)
(ºC)
190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891 6002 1.88
501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490 3597 3.04
1000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537 2641 4.10
1500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519 2622 4.08
2000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555 2657 4.00
2500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471 2575 4.20
Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m.
Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia de 440m.

29. En conclusión
• Aumento de temperatura de 0.8oC a 2020,
y 2.2oC a 2050, equivalente a 440m
• Incremento en el rango durante el día –
noches mas fríos, medio día mas caliente
• Tendencia hacia mas lluvia (100mm al
año)
• Son pronósticos, basados en modelos y
existe incertidumbre

30. Pongámoslo en perspectiva
• Café prefiere 19 a 21.5oC y 1,800 a 2,800mm de
lluvia
• Mes mas seco > 120mm
• Mucha lluvia durante floración resulta en poca
productividad – ej. 2008/2009
• Broca y roya le gusta lo seco y lo caliente
(>21.5oC)
• La sombra reduzca temperatura del cafetal por
unos 1-2oC, pero reduzca también la
variabilidad de temperaturas día a noche

31. Tres Ejemplos
• El susto de café en Cauca
• Colombia no esta tan mal – mira a
America Central!
• Una mala noticia para amantes del buen
café

32. El susto de café
en Cauca

33. Suitability in
Cauca
• Significant changes
to 2020, drastic
changes to 2050
• The Cauca case:
reduced coffeee
growing area and
changes in MECETA
geographic
distribution. Some
new opportunities.

35. Instrumentos de
Adaptación
Alternativas al
cafe
Manejo
Nuevos
mercados

36. Pero es peor en
América Central

40. Una mala
noticia para
amantes del
buen cafe

41. Impactos en calidad
Cambio en
acidez de café
en México
Veracruz tiene
Denominacion
de Origin

42. Impactos en café de alta acidez
en Veracruz
1,2
1,0
0,8
Suitability
0,6
0,4
0,2
current
2050
0,0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Altitude (m asl)

43. Entonces que hacemos?
• No entramos en panico – cambio climatico
mucho mas lento que dinamicas de mercado
que enfrentamos dia a dia
• Primero, analisis mas completo con expertos en
café, y con mas cuidado con el asunto de
incertidumbre y inclusion de
pestes/enfermedades y costos de produccion
• Identificar vulnerabilidades, y explorar opciones
de adaptacion
• En café, primero manejo (sombra, por ejemplo),
segundo cambio varietal y tercero cambio de
cultivo

44. GRACIAS!!!!
a.jarvis@cgiar.org